Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 240841
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
341 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH MOIST AXIS STILL POINTING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KS AND REMNANTS OF HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION LURKING IN
WESTERN KS. WILL CONTINUE MOST OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND FAIRLY
HIGH POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE/VORTICITY MAXIMUM...AND SMALL POPS FOR SHOWERS
POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING AND/OR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST IN THE UPPER
DIFFLUENCE. WITH SHORTWAVE PASSAGE AROUND 0000 UTC...EXPECTING
PRECIPITATION TO WANE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. IF SKIES SUBSTANTIALLY
CLEAR...WHICH IS NOT COMPLETELY CERTAIN...COULD SEE FOG/DENSE FOG
LATE TONIGHT.

MON-MON NIGHT:
MON CONTINUE TO BE THE MOST CHALLENGING DAY OF THE FORECAST.
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW INSTABILITY SOARING DURING THE DAY. WEAK SHEAR/HIGH CAPE
ENVIRONMENT WOULD FAVOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND MICROBURSTS IF
ANY STORMS DEVELOP. BOUNDARY LAYER CIN SUGGEST AREA MAY REMAIN
CAPPED...WHICH IS POSSIBLE GIVEN WEAK FORCING DURING THE DAY.
FORCING WILL INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AS NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH...WITH POPS INCREASING ACCORDINGLY.

TUE:
WITH SHORTWAVE LIKELY OUT OF THE AREA BY 1200 UTC...NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY. DID HAVE TO DRIBBLE
LOW POPS ALONG NE BORDER FOR CONSISTENCY. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

NO BIG CHANGES FROM 24 HOURS AGO...WITH UPPER PATTERN STILL
FAVORING A RELOADING WESTERN TROUGH WITH RIPPLES EMBEDDED IN THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH WEAK SURFACE FLOW AND
DIFFUSE TO NON-EXISTENT SURFACE BOUNDARY...CONVECTION TIMING/
LOCATION WILL BE TOUGH TO PIN DOWN. INITIALIZATION GRIDS STILL
HAVE LOW POPS ALL PERIODS...AND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING
RIPPLES...WILL KEEP THEM GOING. TEMPERATURES LIKELY RUNNING A BIT
CONSERVATIVE ON MAXES GIVEN OPTIMISTIC PRECIPITATION FORECAST.
-HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ONGOING MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE WHERE STRONGEST
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS TARGETED. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
WEAK/VARIABLE FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

IT IS UNCLEAR IF THERE WILL BE MUCH IF ANY BREAK IN THE CONVECTION
IN SOUTHEAST KS BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY
INDUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY CONVECTION WITH THE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES EAST OF I-135.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  57  83  62 /  40  30  20  30
HUTCHINSON      70  57  83  60 /  30  20  20  30
NEWTON          70  57  82  61 /  50  30  20  30
ELDORADO        70  58  81  62 /  70  50  20  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  58  82  62 /  60  30  20  30
RUSSELL         71  57  78  57 /  20  20  20  40
GREAT BEND      71  56  79  58 /  20  20  20  30
SALINA          72  57  81  60 /  30  30  20  40
MCPHERSON       71  57  82  60 /  30  30  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     72  60  81  65 / 100  90  30  30
CHANUTE         70  60  80  64 / 100  80  30  40
IOLA            70  60  80  64 / 100  90  30  40
PARSONS-KPPF    71  60  81  64 / 100  90  30  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ053-069-
083-092-093.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR KSZ070>072-094>096-
098>100.

&&

$$



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