Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 140537
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1137 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 923 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

UPDATED TO TAKE OUT MENTION OF FOG FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE KS
TURNPIKE.

LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE TREND OF KEEPING THE LOW LAYERS TOO
DRY FOR FOG EARLY SUN MORNING FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE TURNPIKE.
BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS OCCURRING RIGHT NOW AND SHIFTS TO SE KS
AFTER 09Z...SO PRECIP ALSO DOES NOT LOOK GOOD FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
KS. WHILE THERE MAY STILL BE AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT SOME VERY LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER SE KS AFTER 09Z...SINGLE DIGIT DEWPOINTS
ARE NOT HELPING WITH OUR CONFIDENCE.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL TRAVERSE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING TROUGH...
MODERATE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL FOCUS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
FLINT HILLS/SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MOISTENING IS PROGGED ON THE
280-295K SURFACES IN THAT AREA OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT. IF SATURATION
CAN OCCUR FROM THE SURFACE TO 800 MB...SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MAY FORM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED
RIGHT NEAR THE CRITICAL FREEZING MARK DURING THE TIME PERIOD AND
AREA OF CONCERN. WITH THE MOISTURE SHALLOW AND A COMPLETE LACK OF
CLOUD ICE PRESENT...ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR A FEW HOURS. STILL SOME
CONCERN THAT THE LOWEST 2,000 FT ABOVE GROUND MAY NOT SATURATE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION...THEREFORE NO
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. SLICK SPOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES IF THE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
MATERIALIZES. AREAS OF FOG/FREEZING FOG MAY FORM OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS RIGHT ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WHERE WINDS WILL BRIEFLY
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE....HOWEVER IT MAY END UP BEING JUST STRATUS
OFF THE DECK.

BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH...DRY AND MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY WITH DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND DECENT INSOLATION. A
TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL AMPLIFY THE UPPER TROF OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS ON MONDAY. A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES MAY OCCUR ON
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
1000-850 PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT THE GOING FORECAST OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL PUSH EASTWARD MID-LATE WEEK...LEAVING A FLOW PATTERN MORE
WESTERLY OFF OF THE PACIFIC AND OUT OVER THE PLAINS. THIS PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID-LATE WEEK...WITH
THURSDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY. DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNALS FOR
PRECIPITATION...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT DRY AND MILD
FORECAST.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN REMAINS LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVER MAINLY
SOUTHEAST KS LATE TONIGHT.

ISENTROPIC LIFT ALREADY STARTED TO RAMP UP AS AN UPPER IMPULSE
DIVES SOUTHEAST OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SO FAR THE LIFT HAS
RESULTED IN CIGS STARTING TO LOWER OVER EASTERN OK AND FAR SE KS.
THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BY 09-10Z FOR
AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE. CONFIDENCE
IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO INSERT IFR CIGS OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE DUE TO THE LOW LAYERS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FAIRLY DRY. LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD PUSH EAST BY 14-15Z.

LAWSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY LOW TO
MODERATE THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE
NEXT WEEK WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS
ELEVATING THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER...WITH THURSDAY LOOKING TO BE
THE GREATEST DAY OF CONCERN.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  55  33  61 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      29  55  32  61 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          28  53  33  59 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        30  54  33  60 /  20  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   33  56  34  63 /  20  10  10  10
RUSSELL         27  54  31  59 /  10   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      28  54  31  60 /  10   0  10  10
SALINA          27  54  32  59 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       28  54  32  59 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     33  54  33  62 /  20  30  10  10
CHANUTE         29  53  32  59 /  20  30  10  10
IOLA            28  52  31  58 /  20  30  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    31  53  33  60 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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