Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 270907
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
407 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today Through Saturday Night)
Issued at 407 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Headline:
Flooding potential continues for primarily Southeast KS from late
Fri Night through Sat Night.

Today & Tonight:
The next mid-level short wave is taking on a slight negative tilt as
it pushes SE across the Central Rockies. The approaching short wave
is slowly inducing sfc troffing along the Front Range. With both
becoming more assertive this afternoon, rain and a few thunderstorms
would develop from WY & the Nebraska Panhandle then spread SE toward
Central KS late this afternoon. With the lowest 5,000ft across the
Wrn half of Central KS not moistening until mid-late afternoon have
delayed arrival of the rain to the about NW quarter of KICT Country
til 3-4 PM.

Fri-Sat Night:
Rain & embedded thunderstorms really ramp up as the main upper deck
trof undergoes cyclogenesis as it digs further over the 4-Corners
Region Fri Night. This "main" upper cyclone will follow in the
tracks of its predecessor shortwave, but SLOWLY, as it transitions
into a cut-off low over the NM/TX border Sat Afternoon & Night.
The increasing upper diffluence, enhanced by the approach of
100-110kt upper-deck jet max, will spell trouble for Southeast KS
for it`ll cause a front to pivot around a sfc low centered over
Eastern OK. The warm/moist advection is strong & would translate
into heavy rains across Southeast KS that would be enhanced by
thunderstorms. Flood Watches will likely be required for Southeast
KS Sat & Sat Night.

$$

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Through Wednesday)
Issued at 407 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

The afore-mentioned cut-off begins to lift SLOWLY NE into Central
KS on Sun & with the strengthening upper-deck jet rounding the
base of the upper-deck cyclone the sfc low would surge N/NE toward
Northeast KS & Northwest MO on Sun. The resulting strong "wrap-
around" associated rains would continue Sun & Sun Night. The rains
should gradually taper Mon & Mon Night.

No changes were made to remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Light and variable winds overnight will become south to southeast
Thursday morning as the surface ridge moves east of the area. An
increasing southeast wind is expected by Thursday afternoon as a
lee side cyclone deepens across the central High Plains. Rather
impressive lift associated with an upper trof moving into the area
will result in a quick increase in mid/high clouds by midday with
the bases/ceilings lowering by evening to MVFR stratocu or stratus
over central Kansas. Modestly high confidence for prevailing SHRA
or VCSH at most terminals by the latter portion of the forecast
valid period.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    62  48  68  46 /  10  70  10  70
Hutchinson      61  46  66  43 /  20  80  10  70
Newton          61  47  65  43 /  20  80  10  70
ElDorado        62  48  68  46 /  10  70  10  60
Winfield-KWLD   63  49  70  49 /  10  60  10  70
Russell         60  44  60  38 /  50  80  20  70
Great Bend      61  43  63  39 /  50  80  10  80
Salina          60  46  63  43 /  30  70  20  70
McPherson       60  46  64  42 /  20  80  10  70
Coffeyville     65  52  73  52 /  10  60  10  80
Chanute         62  50  71  50 /  10  60  10  70
Iola            62  50  70  49 /  10  60  10  60
Parsons-KPPF    64  51  72  52 /  10  60  10  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for KSZ032-033-049.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...KED


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