Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 291153
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
653 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...AS THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE WITH
A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL LEAD TO COOLER AIR
CONTINUING TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF SRN CANADA FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.

EXPECTING SHOWER AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS LATER TODAY...AS MONSOONAL FLOW OVER THE SW US
BEGINS TO PUSH FURTHER EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECTING THIS
AREA OF SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND MID LEVEL LIFT BEGINS TO INCREASE.

EXPECT THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FOR LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS
850-700H MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. WHERE THE
HEAVIEST BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SETUP...WILL BE MORE OF A MESOSCALE
DETAIL...BUT HEAVIEST AXIS OF QPF WILL PROBABLY BE FROM KDDC SE
TOWARDS KOUN....WHERE BEST 850-700H FN-CONVERGENCE WILL BE
ORIENTED.  ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED AS THIS MOISTURE
INCREASES...SO THINKING MORE OF A SHOWERY PRECIP WITH RUMBLES OF
THUNDER TONIGHT INTO WED.

IN OUR FORECAST AREA...EXPECTING THE HEAVIEST QPF AMOUNTS FOR AREAS
SW OF KICT...WITH SOME AREAS OVER HARPER AND SUMNER COUNTIES SEEING
SOME RATHER HEALTHY QPF AMOUNTS BY WED MORNING. COULD SEE SOME
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN...BUT EXPECTING MORE OF A SUSTAINED RAINFALL
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME AREAS OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KS...PICKING 1 TO 2 INCHES BY WED AFTERNOON. WILL SEE LESSOR
QPF AMOUNTS THE FURTHER NORTHEAST YOU GO....BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE
SOME RAINFALL BY WED AFTERNOON.

DO NOT FORESEE ANY FLOODING ISSUES WITH THIS RAINFALL EVENT...AS
MOST OF THE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS IS ALMOST 4
INCHES IN A 3 HOUR PERIOD. BUT CERTAINLY A GOOD SOAKING.

THE PRECIPITATION AREA WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...AS BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SHIFTS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL
PUSH MOST OF THE PRECIP ACTIVITY INTO OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH
VERY PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED...LIGHT WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE MAIN STORY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR KANSAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS STAYS POSITIONED OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH NORTHERLY/
EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE KEEPING MODIFIED COOLER AIR IN PLACE.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF DIURNAL PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY FOR
SATURDAY GIVEN THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND A WEAKLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE
IN PLACE...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WERE IMPACTING PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST KANSAS AND THIS ACTIVITY MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT KSLN-KCNU
 WITH CEILINGS AROUND 7000 FT BEFORE DIMINISHING BY LATE MORNING.
BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN MAY ARRIVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER 05-07Z AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    84  65  72  64 /  10  60  70  30
HUTCHINSON      85  64  73  63 /  20  60  70  20
NEWTON          84  63  75  63 /  20  50  60  20
ELDORADO        85  63  74  63 /  20  50  60  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   84  64  71  65 /  10  60  80  30
RUSSELL         84  63  76  63 /  20  60  60  10
GREAT BEND      83  62  72  62 /  20  80  80  10
SALINA          86  64  79  64 /  30  40  50  10
MCPHERSON       85  63  75  63 /  20  50  60  10
COFFEYVILLE     86  63  76  65 /  10  40  50  30
CHANUTE         84  63  78  64 /  10  30  40  20
IOLA            84  62  78  64 /  20  30  40  20
PARSONS-KPPF    85  62  77  64 /  10  40  50  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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