Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 030501
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1201 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THIS AFTERNOON A SHARP POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROF EXTENDED FROM
SRN HUDSON BAY...TO ALONG THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER...THEN ACROSS
THE MID-MS VALLEY TO THE RED RIVER. THIS HAS ALLOWED FAIRLY LIGHT
NW LWR-DECK FLOW TO PREVAIL ACROSS KS. THE SE THIRD OF KS REMAINED
CLOUDY WHERE CLOSER TO THE TROF. MOST TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 60
TO 65F RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

TONIGHT:
AS THE AFORE-MENTIONED UPPER-DECK TROF PUSHES SE TOWARD THE LOWER
MS VALLEY...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL & SOUTHEAST KS
BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NRN & CENTRAL KS AS A 2ND MID TO
UPPER TROF DROPS DUE S FROM THE DAKOTAS. LOWER AIRMASS IS FAIRLY
DRY SO DRY FORECAST REMAINS INTACT.

TUE-THU NIGHT:
ALL WILL REMAIN QUIET ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AS UPPER-DECK RIDGE
OF MOUNT K2 PROPORTIONS PUSHES E ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS SHARP
UPPER RIDGE WOULD FORCE THE 2ND THE UPPER-DECK TROF THAT SHOULD
EXTEND FROM IL...ACROSS KS...TO NORTHEAST NM SE ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY ON WED. THIS WOULD KEEP ALL OF THE NEIGHBORHOOD UNDER A
NW REGIME ALTHOUGH WITH THE STRONG(!) UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING TO
PUSH SLOWLY E TOWARD THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE CONUS THIS NW UPPER
FLOW WOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THE SUN-DRENCHED SKIES WILL COMBINE
WITH ONSETTING SLY LOWER-DECK FLOW (INDUCED BY WEAK LOWER-DECK
TROFFING OVER THE FAR SW) TO PRODUCE A WARMING TREND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

NEXT WEEKEND:
THOUGH IT`LL BEGIN TO DEAMPLIFY ON FRI...THE AFORE-MENTIONED MID
TO UPPER RIDGE WOULD STILL BE QUITE STRONG AS IT CONTINUES ITS
SLOW PUSH E ACROSS KS. WITH A LARGE MID-LEVEL LOW PARKED OVER THE
GREAT BASIN EJECTING A LEAD (ALBEIT WEAK) MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE NE
TOWARD THE NM/CO BORDER SLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY. AS SUCH
THE WEEKEND WOULD START OUT VERY NICE AS SLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15
TO 25 MPH THAT WOULD COMBINE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO PUSH HIGHS
TO AROUND 80F.

THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE GREAT PLAINS SAT NIGHT FOR AS THE LEAD
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT SLOWLY NE ACROSS NM...THE
CONTINUALLY INCREASING SLY FLOW WOULD INDUCE MUCH RICHER MOISTURE
TO SURGE DUE N INTO KS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLLY INCREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT & MON AS THE MID-UPPER CYCLONE STRENGTHENS AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY E...REACHING THE WRN PLAINS ON MON. ALTHOUGH ITS TOO
EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THE SEVERE POTENTIAL THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINS WOULD INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KCNU THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. SOME GROUND FOG POSSIBLE AT KCNU WHERE MOIST GROUND
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
EARLY...THEN COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT. WEAK WAVE
SWINGING THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK WILL BRING MORE MAINLY MID CLOUDS
TO THE AREA BRIEFLY AND SWITCH WINDS TO A NORTH COMPONENT.
-HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    41  73  48  75 /   0  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      41  74  47  76 /   0  10   0   0
NEWTON          42  72  48  74 /   0  10   0   0
ELDORADO        42  71  48  74 /   0  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   42  72  48  75 /   0  10   0   0
RUSSELL         39  71  46  75 /  10  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      38  72  46  75 /  10  10   0   0
SALINA          38  74  48  74 /  10  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       40  74  47  75 /   0  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     44  71  49  75 /   0  10   0   0
CHANUTE         42  70  48  73 /   0  10   0   0
IOLA            43  70  48  73 /   0  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    43  71  48  74 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EPS
SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...PJH



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