Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 301945
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
245 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016

A mid-upper level shear axis within a monsoonal moist plume extended
from west Texas, into northwestern Kansas and southern portions of
Nebraska and Iowa as of mid afternoon. Diurnal heating/instability
and precipitable water of 1 to 2 standard deviations above normal,
will continue to lead to isolated to scattered storm development
this afternoon and early evening in our forecast area, with perhaps
a bit more coverage in the west/north. A few strong storms with
locally intense rainfall rates, localized flooding, and strong
wind gusts will be possible with this activity. However, expecting
intensity to gradually diminish some overnight with loss of
diurnal heating.

The short range model guidance indicate the shear axis sliding
slowly southward across the Kansas region late Tonight through
Wednesday, in response to upper troughing digging into the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley. This will result in increased cloud cover and
scattered to perhaps numerous storm clusters. This should limit
overall instability on Wednesday, except for perhaps close to the
Oklahoma border, and will likely keep highs limited to the upper
70s to middle 80s.

Rain chances will diminish and end from northeast to southwest
Wednesday night into early Thursday, as the shear axis and monsoonal
plume get shunted further southward. A fairly strong surface high
will build into the Midwest and Upper Mississippi Valley Wednesday
night into Friday, with northeasterly winds bringing cooler/drier
air into central/eastern Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016

Medium range guidance progs the upper ridge pushing over the
southeastern CONUS this weekend into early next week, while upper
troughing slowly pushes east through the western states. The latest
runs have slowed the eastward progression of this upper trough and
associated cold front, possibly in response to the downstream
remnants of tropical cyclone 9 lingering off the east coast. Lee
troughing/southerly return flow will occur this weekend into early
next week, with a possible cold front approaching from the northwest
late Tuesday or Wednesday. Will maintain slight chances for
thunderstorms mainly for central Kansas for the late night/morning
hours this weekend, but most of the area should remain dry.
Temperatures should warm to above seasonal averages by Sunday into
early next week, with gusty south winds particulary in the
afternoon/evening hours. Chances for thunderstorms may increase by
Tuesday or Wednesday, however, model consistency in frontal timing
has been poor thus far, so not confident on timing of precipitation
chances this far out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016

Isolated to widely scattered hit-or-miss thunderstorms are
expected to develop once again this afternoon across much of the
region, due to a moist, unstable and weakly capped atmosphere. As
a first guess inserted VCTS at all sites between 21-03z this
afternoon-evening, although suspect will be making a handful of
amendments once storms get going. Expect areas of showers and
perhaps a few thunderstorms to persist through the night, so
covered this threat with VCSH after 03z for all sites.
Additionally, given light moist northeasterly upslope flow,
inserted MVFR ceiling most sites late tonight into Wednesday
morning. Thinking the greatest potential for IFR or lower will
once again by Russell and Great Bend, and possibly Hutchinson and
Salina.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    69  81  64  82 /  50  60  20  10
Hutchinson      67  80  62  81 /  60  60  20  10
Newton          67  80  62  81 /  60  60  20  10
ElDorado        68  81  63  81 /  50  60  20  10
Winfield-KWLD   69  83  65  83 /  50  60  30  20
Russell         65  79  58  81 /  60  40  20  10
Great Bend      65  79  59  81 /  60  50  20  10
Salina          68  79  59  82 /  60  60  10  10
McPherson       67  79  61  81 /  60  60  20  10
Coffeyville     70  83  67  83 /  50  60  20  10
Chanute         69  81  63  82 /  50  60  20  10
Iola            69  81  62  82 /  50  60  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    70  82  65  83 /  50  60  20  10

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...ADK



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