Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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576
FXUS63 KICT 172114
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
314 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 313 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

In the very short term, stratus should linger near and to the
southeast of the Kansas Turnpike tonight into early Monday morning
with very light flow in a moist boundary layer. Patchy drizzle/fog
will be possible in roughly the same area.

Water vapor imagery depicts an upper low circulating over the
northwest Sonora Mexico this afternoon, fairly detached from the
northern branch jet at this time. This system should eject eastward
across the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley from Monday
night into early Wednesday, as an upstream trough approaches the
Pacific Northwest. We are still expecting the bulk of the rain from
this system to remain south of the forecast area, but cannot rule
out some light rain near the Oklahoma border in southeast Kansas
late Tuesday into early Wednesday.

Otherwise, confidence is high in very mild temperatures persisting
across the area through Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 313 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

An upper low over the western states is progged to open up and shear
eastward in the Thursday-Friday time-frame, as additional troughing
digs into the northwest CONUS. This will support a cold front moving
through the forecast area Thursday into Thursday night. Falling
temperatures appear most likely in northwest Kansas during the
daytime Thursday, if the faster ECMWF/Canadian solutions are
correct. Otherwise, highs Friday are expected to be in the middle
30s to around 40 degrees. Flurries/light snow are still possible
(mainly from about I-70 northward), depending on how strong and far
south this initial upper trough is, as it ejects eastward from the
western states.

A broad consensus of the medium range models support the upper
pattern amplifying strongly from late Friday through the upcoming
weekend. Strong, positive 500 mb height anomalies build over eastern
Alaska, the Yukon, and Northwest Territories, while a deep upper
trough/low digs southward over the north-central CONUS. This pattern
favors an arctic airmass spreading southward into the north-central
CONUS. This airmass could reach our forecast area as soon as
Saturday, but all guidance has it overspreading the area by
Sunday/Monday. Light snow or flurries are a possibility as this
arctic surge spreads in, however forecast uncertainty is very high
regarding the temporal/spatial aspects.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

The concern at midday is MVFR (in SE KS IFR) cigs across areas
primarily along & E of I-35/135 With weak lwr-deck troffing
situated from Wrn IA, thru C KS to between KEWK & KHUT, to W TX
moving very little, if at all, this afternoon it`s doubtful the
Stratus covering KCNU (especially), KSLN & KICT will scour this
afternoon. As such have kept all 3 terminals in IFR (KCNU) & MVFR
(KICT & KSLN) thru late tonight. It`s possible with SFC flow becmg
more Wly across I-35/I-135 late tonight the Stratus will scour
KICT & KSLN this evening.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    33  58  37  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      27  58  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          32  57  36  57 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        33  57  38  59 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   34  58  39  59 /  10   0   0   0
Russell         25  57  28  57 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      25  59  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          27  58  33  58 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       28  57  33  57 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     38  58  42  60 /  10   0   0   0
Chanute         37  57  41  59 /  10   0   0   0
Iola            37  57  40  59 /  10   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    37  58  42  60 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...EPS



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