Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 272039
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
339 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Convection now developing across Kansas this afternoon. Most of it
resides in two main areas. The first is across western Kansas in
an area of convergence associated with a boundary. This boundary
extends in an arc from KGBD-KHLC-KK61. The second is across
southeast Kansas where deep moisture is more prevalent.

This activity will continue to be scattered this evening. Some of
the Convective Allowing Models (CAMs) are producing an MCS that
travels southeast across the western half of the state. There is
a chance of this affecting the forecast area west of I-135, but
confidence in it getting that far east is pretty low.

On Thursday, the CAMs as well as the output from the NAMDMG shows
another MCS that has a much better chance of affecting the
forecast area. Confidence is rather high that we will see some
rain. Shear/buoyancy combinations suggest a good chance of these
being severe with the main threat being damaging winds and large
hail, in that order. This could be a rather significant event, as
a few of the CAMs are showing 0-10km shear at levels that would
favor a significant wind event/bow echo to move through the
region early friday morning.

Precipitation chances decrease as we head into the weekend as
ridge building in the upper levels increases stability of the
vertical profile, thereby reducing buoyancy.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Very minor chances of storms, mainly from an increasing cap in the
atmosphere. A look at the mid levels shows another ridge of high
pressure aloft moving into the region for the period. This will
push temperatures toward the century mark, with heat indices
approaching 105 degrees.

Any storms that develop will have a good chance of becoming severe
because of the significant amount of buoyancy from temperatures
near 100 and dewpoints in the low 70s (MUCAPE 4000+), if they can
break the cap.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Expect VFR conditions for most locations for the next 24 hours.  The
main concern will be convective chances across North Central KS
propagating to the S-SE into portions of Central KS after 23z/Wed.
this early evening convection will probably affect the KRSL TAF
site, but uncertainty exists on whether this convection will evolve
into a forward propagating complex of storms, or will additional
convection over the high plains move S-SE overnight. Either way,
think convection will affect the wrn half of the forecast area
overnight  so will go for VCTS for areas generally west of I-135 for
the KRSL/KGBD/KSLN/KHUT and KICT TAF sites for the overnight hours.
Could see some MVFR vsbys in and around the convection if the
complex develops, but will not mention this in the TAFS just yet.

Some uncertainty on how far south this complex of storms will make
it, as instability looks to wane over south Central KS. So more of a
conditional chance for the KICT TAF.

Ketcham


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    73  91  70  87 /  30  20  80  40
Hutchinson      71  91  68  86 /  40  20  70  40
Newton          71  89  68  85 /  30  20  70  40
ElDorado        72  90  69  86 /  30  20  70  40
Winfield-KWLD   73  92  71  87 /  20  20  70  50
Russell         68  90  66  85 /  40  30  70  30
Great Bend      70  91  66  85 /  40  20  70  30
Salina          72  91  69  87 /  40  20  50  30
McPherson       71  90  68  86 /  30  20  60  40
Coffeyville     72  91  71  88 /  20  30  50  50
Chanute         72  90  70  87 /  20  30  50  40
Iola            72  89  70  86 /  20  30  50  40
Parsons-KPPF    72  90  71  87 /  20  30  50  50

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRC
LONG TERM...KRC
AVIATION...Ketcham



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