Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 201750
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1150 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

A STRONG UPPER JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS DURING THE PERIOD WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AND
ABUNDANT PACIFIC MOISTURE. LEE TROUGHING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO MODIFY THIS WEEKEND IN OUR FORECAST AREA.
LOW STRATUS/FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE PROBLEMATIC THIS WEEKEND...GIVEN
HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S/40S UPSTREAM IN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS. NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG HOWEVER...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
GRADUALLY INCREASING.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY AS IT PUSHES FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AS ISENTROPIC
LIFT OCCURS IN THE 285-290K LAYER WITH LOWERING CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS AND FAIRLY DRY MID-LEVELS. TWO SEPARATE AREAS
OF DEEPER LIFT APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH. ONE
AREA PASSES ACROSS NEBRASKA...NORTHEASTERN KS...IOWA...MISSOURI. A
SECOND AREA PASSES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. FOR
OUR AREA...RELATIVELY HIGHER LIGHT RAIN CHANCES (30-40%) WILL
AFFECT OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WITH 15-20% IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY
MONDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS AROUND 50/LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

BRISK AND COOLER WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FLAVOR FOR TUESDAY
AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN MODIFY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE AT ODDS REGARDING ENERGY COMING
OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC TOWARD THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK. THE
GFS OFFERS A MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED TROUGH WITH THE BRUNT OF THE ENERGY
PASSING JUST NORTH OF KANSAS. THIS WOULD BRING SOME COLDER AIR IN BY
FRIDAY...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DIG AND AMPLIFY THE ENERGY
MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...WITH A LARGE SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ON THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TRACK. THIS COULD AFFECT OUR CENTRAL
KS COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF ALSO BRINGS A
BIGGER SHOT OF COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN OUR
AREA...BUT FEEL IT`S PRUDENT TO MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SNOW IN THE
FORECAST IN CENTRAL KS...AND MAKE ANY NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS IN LATER
FORECASTS. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN A COOLDOWN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

DETERIORATING AVIATION WEATHER WILL INVADE ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT
FOR KRSL LATE THIS EVENING AND SUNDAY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO USHER IN SOME MOIST AIR AND WITH SOME MINOR WARM AIR
ADVECTION MOVING OVER THE SNOW AND MOIST GROUND ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 135 CORRIDOR...VISIBILITIES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE AN
ISSUE DURING THE EARLY HOURS ON SUNDAY. A LONG TROUGH WILL ALSO
MOVE ACROSS AND PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AS WELL. SO...RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG AND
DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY. KRSL SHOULD ESCAPE THE BRUNT OF VISIBILITY
ISSUES...BUT THE OTHERS WILL NOT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    48  36  47  39 /   0   0  10  20
HUTCHINSON      48  35  48  37 /   0   0  10  20
NEWTON          46  35  46  39 /   0   0  10  20
ELDORADO        47  36  47  40 /   0   0  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   49  37  48  40 /   0   0  10  20
RUSSELL         50  31  49  35 /   0   0  10  20
GREAT BEND      50  32  49  35 /   0   0  10  20
SALINA          47  34  48  37 /   0   0  10  30
MCPHERSON       47  34  47  37 /   0   0  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     48  36  49  41 /   0   0  10  20
CHANUTE         46  35  47  41 /   0   0  10  20
IOLA            45  35  46  40 /   0   0  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    47  36  48  42 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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