Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 160813
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
313 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

TODAY: A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP PUSH A SFC TROUGH ACROSS KS
TODAY...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY
INCREASING THE SURFACE WINDS. 850H WINDS AROUND 50-55KTS WILL
MIXING DOWN TO SURFACE AS MOMENTUM TRANSFER INCREASES FOR THE
DAYTIME HOURS...AS LAPSE RATES INCREASE WITH THE DRY ATMOSPHERE.
SO SOME GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS EAST OF THE KS
TURNPIKE...BY AROUND 16Z. SO WILL GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE DRY
AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO CRITICAL GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER VALUES...SO WILL ALSO GO WITH A RED FLAG WARNING (SEE
FIRE SECTION BELOW) FOR THE SAME AREA AS THE WIND ADVISORY.

TONIGHT-THU: ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE LOOKS TO MOVE OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THU. LATEST MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN TAKING THIS IMPULSE FURTHER SOUTH WITH EACH RUN AND ALSO
NOT PULLING IN AS MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS PREVIOUS RUNS WOULD
SUGGEST. CURRENT NAM/WRF AND GFS ACTUALLY KEEP LOWER LAYERS FAIRLY
DRY ACROSS CENTRAL KS...WITH MEAGER MOISTURE RETURN OVER SRN KS.
SO WILL CUT BACK ON POPS IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH MOISTURE
LACKING. THINK CENTRAL KS MAY ONLY SEE SOME SPRINKLES AT BEST.
WILL KEEP A SOLID CHANCE POP GOING ACROSS SRN KS FOR NOW...BUT
THINK THIS AREA MAY ONLY SEE VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS.

FRI: WEAK RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA FOR FRI...WITH WINDS
EVENTUALLY RETURNING TO THE WEST BY THE DAYTIME HOURS ON FRI. THIS
WILL LEAD A NICE DOWNSLOPE DAY ON FRI...WITH TEMPS CLIMBING BACK
TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...FOR SAT INTO SUN.  MOISTURE RETURN
ISNT TOO GREAT FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SAT...BUT JET STREAK IN THE
MID LAYERS MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS FOR SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT
NIGHT...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE PLAINS COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THIS JET.  SO SOLID CHANCE POPS FOR SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN LOOK REASONABLE.

DRY AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN FOR THE START OF THE
WEEK...AS RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT AND STRONG SOUTH WINDS ON WED ARE THE
AVIATION ISSUES FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE.

THE ONLY CHANGE FROM THE 00Z TAFS WAS TO INSERT SOME WIND SHEAR AT
ALL SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KRSL. THIS IS DUE TO VERY
STRONG(40-45KT) SOUTH WINDS RIGHT OFF OF THE SURFACE. THESE WINDS
WILL MIX DOWN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY LATE WED
MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF I-135. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL KS IN THE
AFTERNOON...FLIPPING WINDS AROUND TO THE NW FOR KRSL AND
EVENTUALLY KSLN AND KHUT BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH IN THE VFR CONDITIONS STAYING IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

LAWSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

STRONG AND GUSTY SW WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A MAJOR GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON. SW WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH AND GOOD
MIXING WILL LEAD TO VERY DRY CONDITIONS FOR AREAS EAST OF THE KS
TURNPIKE. THIS WILL LEAD TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
VALUES...FROM 9AM TO 6PM. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE FOR THIS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  42  56  37 /  10  20  30   0
HUTCHINSON      71  39  56  36 /  10  20  30   0
NEWTON          68  39  55  36 /  10  20  30   0
ELDORADO        68  41  54  37 /  10  10  30  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  43  56  38 /  10  10  40  10
RUSSELL         69  36  57  35 /  10  20  10   0
GREAT BEND      70  36  57  35 /  10  20  20   0
SALINA          72  37  56  35 /  10  20  20   0
MCPHERSON       70  38  56  36 /  10  20  20   0
COFFEYVILLE     67  42  58  41 /  10  10  60  20
CHANUTE         67  42  55  39 /  10  10  50  20
IOLA            66  41  54  38 /  10  10  50  20
PARSONS-KPPF    68  42  57  40 /  10  10  50  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ052-053-069>072-093>096-098>100.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ052-053-069>072-093>096-098>100.

&&

$$







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