Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 220438
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1138 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

DRY POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...HOWEVER DESPITE LOW LEVEL CAA...TEMPERATURES WERE ABLE TO
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS REACHING THE
MID 80S. AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE NOSES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT...LOWS SHOULD EASILY FALL INTO THE UPPER
40S/AROUND 50 WITH LIGHT WINDS/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

ANOTHER SEASONABLY MILD DAY IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNING TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS LATE IN THE PERIOD MAY KEEP HIGHS FROM REACHING 80 ACROSS
CENTRAL KS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN AREA WILL
TRANSLATE EAST OVER THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY. LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL SPREAD DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AFTER 06Z. THE PRIMARY CHANCE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO DELAY POPS UNTIL AFTER 06Z.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY...THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO STALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. LIMITED INSOLATION
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SEASONABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S/AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

ANOTHER MORE VIGOROUS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND BRINGING A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
SHOW CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING WITH THE GFS MORE
PROGRESSIVE WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THERE APPEARS TO BE
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR A SLOWER SCENARIO AND MAINTAINED DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS
DURING THE NEXT 24HRS...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SIT OVER THE AREA. NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL VEER OUT TO THE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    51  80  58  79 /   0   0  10  40
HUTCHINSON      50  80  58  78 /   0  10  20  50
NEWTON          49  77  56  78 /   0   0  10  40
ELDORADO        49  80  57  78 /   0   0  10  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   49  78  56  79 /   0   0  10  30
RUSSELL         50  79  57  76 /   0  10  40  60
GREAT BEND      50  78  58  78 /   0  10  40  60
SALINA          50  78  58  76 /   0  10  10  50
MCPHERSON       50  78  57  77 /   0  10  10  50
COFFEYVILLE     48  76  55  78 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         48  76  54  78 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            48  76  54  77 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    48  76  54  78 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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