Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 312112
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
312 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

LOTS OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH AHEAD OF THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER EXTREME SW PORTIONS OF THE
US.  THIS HAS LED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS LIFT FROM THIS APPROACHING WAVE INCREASES. COLDER AIR
IS NOT THAT FAR NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH SOME AREAS NEAR THE KS/NEB
BORDER REPORTING A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW.

FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...EXPECT THIS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. BUT A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER WY WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST AND HELP PUSH SOME POLAR AIR SOUTHWARD INTO KS LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  THIS COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE
THE LIGHT RAIN OVER TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AND EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON SUN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.  THE
GOOD NEWS IS...THAT AS THIS SUBFREEZING AIR DROPS SOUTH...MOST OF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BEGIN TO BE SHUNTED TO THE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL ONLY LEAD TO LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
AMOUNTS...MAINLY IN CENTRAL KS...ONCE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. COULD
ALSO SEE A LIGHT DUSTING ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS AS WELL.

EXPECT THE LIGHT SNOW TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY SUN
MORNING...AS DOWNGLIDE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.  BUT EVEN AS THE SNOW
ENDS...THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL FORCE ON SUN...WITH A
RATHER COLD AND RAW DAY EXPECTED. NOT EXPECTING TEMPS TO MOVE MUCH
ON SUNDAY...WITH NEARLY STEADY TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 20S IN CENTRAL KS
AND LOWER 30S IN SOUTHERN KS.

SUN NIGHT-MON: COLDEST PORTION OF THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO SETTLE OVER
THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING AS THE POLAR RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  THIS WILL LEAD TO LOW TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN CENTRAL KS AND THE TEENS IN SRN KS.

EXPECT THE TEMPS TO MODERATE SOME ON MON...AS SURFACE WINDS
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND MID LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST.
THIS WILL PROVIDE DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE
PLAINS....WITH TEMPS MON AFTERNOON WARMING BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL
NORMALS. THINK TEMPS MAY BE TEMPERED SOME ON MON...DUE TO SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

WARM ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR TUE. WHICH
WILL LEAD TO TEMPS CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL...AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

AS THIS SHORTWAVE DRIVES SOUTHEAST...MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR
WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF POLAR AIR DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS FOR
LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE TEMP ROLLERCOASTER
CONTINUING...AS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK TOWARDS NORMAL AND
EVENTUALLY BELOW NORMAL BY WED.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY PRECIP THAT WILL
DEVELOP AS THE THIS COLDER AIR DROPS SOUTH AS MOISTURE WILL BE
PACIFIC IN NATURE.  GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH THE MOISTURE AS THE
COLDER AIR DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA...WITH A JET STREAK DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INCREASING THE LIFT ACROSS THE
AREA. THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST A CHANCE INITIALLY OF A WINTRY MIX AS
THIS LIFT INCREASES...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW FOR WED.   THE ECMWF IS
ALOT DRIER...AND WOULD SUGGEST MAINLY A TRACE EVENT OF SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES.   MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS KEEPING A SLIGHT POP FOR NOW
AND SEEING HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.  GFS SOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SNEAKY INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ON WED.

NOT EXPECTING THE POLAR AIR TO REMAINS AROUND TOO LONG...AS BOTH
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPS RETURNING.

KETCHAM




&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED...SO THINKING THE
WINTRY MIX IS DONE AT LEAST THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. CIGS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PROBABLY EVENTUALLY FALLING INTO IFR FOR MOST/ALL
LOCATIONS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY EXIT TO THE
EAST LATE TONIGHT...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT BLASTING SOUTH WITH
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE.
COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF ALL SNOW FOR RSL-SLN AND MAYBE HUT
TOWARD 06-12Z TIME FRAME...BUT ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
TONIGHT-EARLY SUNDAY.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  32  13  37 / 100  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      28  30  10  38 /  90  10   0   0
NEWTON          29  30  11  35 / 100  10   0   0
ELDORADO        31  33  12  36 / 100  20   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   34  35  13  37 / 100  10   0   0
RUSSELL         24  26  10  40 /  70  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      25  28  11  41 /  70  10   0   0
SALINA          26  28   9  37 / 100  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       27  29   9  36 / 100  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     37  41  15  35 / 100  50   0   0
CHANUTE         35  38  13  34 / 100  50  10   0
IOLA            34  37  13  33 / 100  60  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    36  39  13  35 / 100  50  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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