Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 270833
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
333 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Today-tonight:
Anticipating confidence to increase for this period relative to
24 hours ago, but opposite has happened. Ongoing weakening storms
in the vicinity of KHLC will likely push outflow into Central KS.
Meanwhile RAP/NAM/HRRR all generate fairly impressive CAPE and
very little/no CINH by 15-18 UTC in Southern KS, although just
arriving 0600 UTC NAM has much different solution. Narrow mid level
ridge will likely further weaken ongoing storms, now primary
being fed off cold pool and veering 850MB-700MB winds. Chances for
precipitation look slim/mainly north of I-70 at 1200 UTC and
suspect surface boundary will hang up somewhere in central KS this
morning. Think this could provide focus for storms to develop this
afternoon, or they may wait until near sunset when upper trough
approaches. The other unknown is potential for storms to develop
in Flint Hills/Southeast KS in deeper moisture. It is not obvious
that there will be anything to initiate this convection until
later tonight, barring some sort of gravity wave/bore. Models are also
hinting at storms behind the upper trough late tonight, which is
possible, but would be dependent on good 850MB-700MB warm air
advection. This may be dependent on how widespread/robust initial
storms are. Sufficient CAPE for severe storms appears likely with
damaging winds being the primary threat.

Thursday-Friday:
Appears that precipitation will be limited to areas east of I-35
during the day, either with lingering morning precipitation or
isolated afternoon storms in deeper moisture. The former seems
more likely. Models tonight are playing up the MCS potential for
Thursday night mainly tracking west of I-35, and then again
Friday night mainly east of I-35. Given northwest flow regime,
confidence is fairly good there would be storms both nights, but
track is less certain. Also appears to be extensive clouds on
Friday, which should limit maxes. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

One more shot at an MCS Sunday morning...most likely in Southeast
KS. Dry conditions anticipated for remainder of this period as
ridge builds into the plains. This should result in an uptick in
temperatures and dry weather on Monday-Tuesday. Highs on Monday-
Tuesday are likely conservative and based on thicknesses, at least
some triple digits seem likely in the western half of the forecast
area. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

There`s renewed potl for ~1500 ft stratus to spread acrs most of
Cntrl & SC KS twd daybreak as weak E-SE flow conts. Possess
sufficient confidence to place most terminals (spcly KICT, KHUT, &
KSLN) in MVFR cig status from ~10-14Z. Cigs shud fairly quickly to
~3,000 ft 16-18Z. W/ dense Cirriform debris from TSRA ocrg fm Cntrl
Nebraska to the CO/KS bdr the potl for BR aprs minimal for Cntrl KS
twd ~10Z but wl `air` on side of caution & assign 5SM BR to Cntrl
KS terminals.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    92  72  92  70 /  20  30  10  60
Hutchinson      92  72  91  69 /  20  30  10  60
Newton          90  71  90  69 /  30  40  10  50
ElDorado        90  71  90  69 /  20  30  20  50
Winfield-KWLD   92  72  92  70 /  20  20  20  50
Russell         93  68  90  67 /  40  40  10  60
Great Bend      93  70  92  67 /  30  30  10  60
Salina          93  71  92  69 /  40  40  10  50
McPherson       91  71  90  68 /  30  40  10  60
Coffeyville     91  73  92  71 /  20  20  30  30
Chanute         91  72  90  71 /  20  20  30  30
Iola            91  71  90  70 /  20  30  30  30
Parsons-KPPF    91  72  91  71 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...EPS


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