Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 161733
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1133 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 314 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

Water vapor imagery shows upper low slowly approaching Chihuahua
Mexico with additional shortwave energy stretching from the
Northern Intermountain into central CA.

Upper wave over Mexico is expected to quickly lift northeast
today and tonight. In response, low pressure will strengthen over
the lee of the Rockies allowing for gusty south winds to be in
place. This will result in very high grassland fire danger across
most of the area as afternoon RH`s range from 25% to 30%.

Still good model agreement in the upper impulse quickly lifting
over the southern Plains and across the Ozark region by early Sun
morning. This feature will produce widespread precip across most
of eastern KS tonight into Sun morning. Still looking like light
rainfall amounts with the upper limit around a quarter inch.
Did go ahead and trim back the northwest fringes of the rainfall,
which places Wichita on the nw extent of the rainfall tonight.

By Sun afternoon, the shortwave energy diving out of the nw CONUS
is expected to consolidate into another closed low over the desert
southwest by Mon morning. This feature is expected to track across
the southern Plains Mon night through Tue night. There is some
small discrepancies between the GFS and ECMWF with how far north
the impulse tracks, so will leave some small precip chances in for
Tue night with low confidence in this panning out.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 314 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

Still good agreement between the ECMWF and GFS in a more robust
shortwave diving out of the Pacific Northwest and into the Great
Basin by Wed evening. Surface low pressure ahead of this wave will
deepen over the high Plains Wed, which will provide one last day
of above normal temps before a strong cold front pushes through.
Latest guidance has sped up the timing of the cold front with it
expected to move through by early Thu afternoon and possibly as
early as Thu morning. May see some light rain changing to light
snow near or behind the front Thu, but not expecting any kind of
significant snowfall accumulation. The bigger story will the
abrupt change in temps. Looking like highs on Fri will struggle to
get out of the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

VFR conditions continue to dominate all terminals this afternoon.
There are some gusty winds at CNU but this is expected to subside
as the evening approaches. Tonight, an incoming weather system
will be pushing into the region and will bring the first chance
for rain during the early morning hours. This will primarily
affect CNU and ICT with low MVFR ceilings, rain and fog. HUT is
also expected to experience MVFR ceilings during the early
morning hours through mid morning until the front comes through
later in the afternoon. The only concern is HUT, ICT and CNU will
be close to some LLWS conditions during the night (between
04-09Z). Many of the models are hinting at LLWS at 1500-2000ft
with winds 240 at 30 kts. This places HUT, ICT and CNU very close
to LLWS conditions with surface winds at 10-12 kts. If winds drop
off during the early to mid night, LLWS conditions will develop.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    60  40  50  31 /   0  30  20  10
Hutchinson      59  37  48  27 /   0  20  10   0
Newton          59  38  48  30 /   0  30  20  10
ElDorado        58  40  50  32 /   0  50  30  10
Winfield-KWLD   59  41  51  32 /   0  50  20  10
Russell         61  29  44  23 /   0  10  10   0
Great Bend      61  31  44  23 /   0  10  10   0
Salina          60  35  48  27 /   0  10  10   0
McPherson       59  36  47  27 /   0  20  10   0
Coffeyville     60  42  52  37 /   0  90  40  10
Chanute         60  41  51  36 /   0  90  50  10
Iola            60  41  51  36 /   0  90  60  10
Parsons-KPPF    60  41  52  36 /   0  90  40  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...ELM



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