Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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051
FXUS63 KICT 221741
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1241 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1011 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Morning convection continues to diminish or end over SE KS at this
time. Cold front continues to push south, located mainly along
highway 54, with some lingering post frontal stratus. Think the
front will continue to push south for the afternoon hours, possibly
along the KS/OK border by around 21z, and into nrn OK by 00z. With
the afternoon heating and some instability pooling along the front,
could see some isolated storms try to develop for the afternoon
hours, right along the KS/OK border counties.  So will leave some
pops in for this chance. Could see a strong storm or two with
downburst winds the main concern, with the better and
possibly stronger storms located further south in nrn OK.

Ketcham

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

A cold front over northwestern Kansas, will continue pushing
southward into southern Kansas this morning, then out of south-
central/southeast Kansas early this afternoon. Scattered
thunderstorms will occur this early morning along the front, with
diminishing chances in the far south later this morning into early
afternoon. Localized pockets of heavy rainfall could still affect
particularly southeast Kansas prior to daybreak near an outflow
boundary, in an area of strong 850 moisture transport, upper-level
diffluent flow, and anomalously high precipitable water near 2
inches.

Noticeably cooler and drier air will filter southward across the
area behind the front, bringing highs slightly below seasonal
averages for today through Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Medium range models were in decent agreement in depicting several
shortwaves moving out of the Rockies across the central Plains
Friday into this weekend. Southerly return flow and moisture
advection is indicated Thursday night through Friday night,
potentially weakening some over the weekend. The medium range
models are indicating a tropical cyclone (Harvey remnants) redeveloping
over the southwest Gulf of Mexico by Thursday, with this system
intensifying as it tracks northwestward, possibly reaching south
Texas sometime Friday into Friday night. There are the usual model
variations in the track that are likely to fluctuate more between
now and at least Thursday, but the ECMWF,GFS,GEM have the tropical
cyclone making landfall anywhere from South Padre Island to Port
O` Connor.

Scattered showers/thunderstorms should affect portions of
western/central Kansas Thursday night and Friday. Forecast
uncertainty in rain chances increases over the weekend, in large
part due to the tropical system progged to slow down over south
Texas, which could rob moisture return to the Kansas region.
Forecast confidence remains high that afternoon high temperatures
in our forecast area will remain slightly cooler than seasonal
averages.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

A cold frontal boundary continues to push into srn KS at this time,
mainly located from KWLD to KCNU.  Surface winds will continue to
shift to the NE in its wake with some gusty winds for an hour or two
after its passage.  Also seeing some post frontal MVFR cigs for an
hour or two in its wake, which may affect the KCNU and KICT tafs for
a few more hours.  As the front pushes south, think the chances of
afternoon isolated storm chances are also pushing south of the taf
sites.  So do not plan on carrying any VCTS for any tafs.

Expect VFR conditions for all taf sites by 00z and beyond.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    86  59  83  60 /  10   0   0   0
Hutchinson      85  56  83  59 /  10   0   0   0
Newton          85  57  81  58 /  10   0   0   0
ElDorado        85  58  81  58 /  10   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   87  59  83  60 /  20  10   0   0
Russell         84  55  86  59 /   0   0   0  10
Great Bend      85  56  85  59 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          85  57  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       85  56  83  58 /  10   0   0   0
Coffeyville     87  60  83  59 /  30  10   0   0
Chanute         85  58  81  59 /  20  10   0   0
Iola            84  57  80  58 /  20   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    86  58  82  59 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Ketcham
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...Ketcham



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