Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 012024
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
324 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE IS CHANCES/TRENDS IN ELEVATED CONVECTION THE NEXT
COUPLE OF NIGHTS/MORNINGS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM ALOFT AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THRU MID-WEEK. MEANWHILE...AN INCREASINGLY
WARM/MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AT LOW LEVELS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT...COINCIDENT WITH
WEAK WARM ADVECTION/LIFT ALONG THE MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.
ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION THOUGH
WEAKER CAP WILL LIKELY RESIDE FOR PARCELS LIFTED CLOSER TO THE
700MB LEVEL WHERE WEAKER INSTABILITY OF 300 TO 600 J/KG WILL BE
PRESENT. SO WILL CARRY SLIGHT POPS MIDNIGHT-NOON TUESDAY MORNING
FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE I-135. A SIMILAR
SCENARIO IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING THOUGH
SHIFTING A BIT FURTHER EAST TO THE FLINT HILLS WITH THE POSITION
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT/INSTABILITY
AXIS. OTHERWISE...DESPITE THE DIURNAL/AFTERNOON AIRMASS GOING FROM
MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE
WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION...PERHAPS EVEN INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER FOR
INTER-OFFICE CONTINUITY WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT POPS ALONG/NORTH OF
THE I-70 CORRIDOR. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM AS
ADVERTISED WITH MAXS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK LOOKS TO
TRANSITION TO PERHAPS A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE ALOFT TOPPING THE
RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MAY ALLOW A SURFACE FRONT TO DROP
SOUTH INTO THE AREA. THIS WOULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SOME
CONVECTION LATE IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER SOME UNCERTAINTY ARISES
IN THE ORIENTATION/STRENGTH IN THE RIDGE ALOFT AND POSITION OF
THE SURFACE/FOCUSING FEATURES FOR CONVECTION INTO THE WEEKEND.
AS A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL TRANSITION
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH FOR NOW WILL JUST MAINTAIN
SLIGHT TO MODEST POPS IN THE OUTER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LOW CLOUD TRENDS.

DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER WAVE. SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW HAS COMMENCED OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL ALLOW THE RICH
MOISTURE TO INCREASE/REMAIN IN PLACE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER FAR WESTERN KS/EASTERN CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY STAYING WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME
LOW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING
BUT FOR NOW CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO RUN WITH IFR LEVELS.
SO WILL ONCE AGAIN JUST GO WITH MVFR CEILINGS.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    60  82  65  85 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      60  83  65  86 /  20  20  10  10
NEWTON          58  81  64  84 /  10  10  10  20
ELDORADO        59  81  66  84 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   59  82  65  85 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         60  84  65  86 /  20  20  20  20
GREAT BEND      60  84  65  87 /  20  20  10  10
SALINA          60  83  66  86 /  20  20  20  20
MCPHERSON       58  82  65  86 /  10  20  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     57  81  64  84 /   0  10  10  10
CHANUTE         56  80  64  83 /   0  10  10  10
IOLA            56  80  64  83 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    57  79  64  82 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


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