Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 200948
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
348 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 348 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

A weak sfc low that is centered over Southeast CO & Northeast NM
continues to keep nearly all of KICT Country in a moisture-laden
but weak easterly regime. A dense fog has enveloped nearly all of
KICT Country with visibilities 1/4 mile or less. (The exceptions
are in Southeast KS to as far W as Sumner County.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 348 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

This Morning:
With the afore-mentioned sfc low moving slowly east the dense fog
wl shroud nearly all of the neighborhood until late morning around
which time the approaching low will induced sufficient southerly
flow to scour the fog. The 10 AM CST expiration time is unchanged.

This Afternoon & Tonight:
A mid-level shortwave will move very slowly E from Eastern CO to
perhaps as far as Central KS. There may sufficient convergence
along the trof to produce some light rain and/or drizzle primarily
in Central KS. With the shortwave expected to only reach Central
KS this evening the light rain may fester in parts of Central KS
(primarily Russell & Lincoln Counties) until mid-evening. With
skies clearing most areas late tonight some light patchy fog may
redevelop in Central & South-Central KS. For now have assigned
"patchy fog" to these areas from 3 AM thru daybreak.

Sat-Sunday Night:
A stronger sfc cyclone will develop over the TX Panhandle region
as a stronger mid-level trof pushes SE from CO to along the Red
River. As the strengthening cyclone moves along the Red River Sat
Night rain will develop across the Southern Plains, the northern
extent of which may clip Southern KS. Wrap around-induced light
rain would occur across far Southeast KS Sun Morning around which
time the sfc cyclone should approach the Lower MS Valley. With the
mid-level cyclone scooting E across the Lower MS Valley the light
rain should exit Southeast KS by mid-day.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 348 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

Most of the upcoming week should be quiet. The only period(s) that
may prove problematic are Tue & Tue Night when a mid-upper cyclone
strengthens as it moves E across KS & Nebraska. There is disparity
between the GFS & ECMWF as to the cyclone`s behavior with ECMWF
favoring a more southerly track along the KS/Nebraska state line.
Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1134 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

Aviation concerns will be fog and low ceilings through late Fri
morning.

Fog has already developed for areas generally along and west of
I-135 as ceilings have also come down to LIFR levels. Feel that
these LIFR conditions will remain in place through Fri morning and
likely into at least early Fri afternoon. Ceilings and
visibilities have been much slower to come down over southeast
KS(KCNU), this is likely due to lack of upslope processes that
are affecting areas along and west of I-135. However, still feel
conditions will deteriorate after 09z but with lower confidence in LIFR
levels. KRSL-KSLN-KGBD will likely be the last sites to see their
conditions improve to MVFR/VFR levels Fri afternoon/early evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    54  33  57  36 /  10   0   0  20
Hutchinson      52  32  55  34 /  10   0   0  10
Newton          53  33  55  34 /  10   0   0  10
ElDorado        55  34  57  35 /  10   0   0  20
Winfield-KWLD   56  34  58  37 /  10   0   0  40
Russell         49  31  54  30 /  30  20   0   0
Great Bend      49  30  53  30 /  20  10   0  10
Salina          52  33  55  32 /  20  10   0   0
McPherson       52  33  54  33 /  10  10   0  10
Coffeyville     64  38  62  40 /  10   0   0  40
Chanute         59  36  59  38 /  10   0   0  30
Iola            58  36  58  37 /  10   0   0  20
Parsons-KPPF    62  37  60  39 /  10   0   0  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EPS
SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...RBL



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