Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 240200
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
900 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 859 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

Diurnally driven showers have all but ended as the sun sets, with
the upper low currently spinning over Iowa. Think the diurnally
driven Cu will also slowly dissipate as the evening progresses for
western sections. So will go with a slow clearing for the western
half of the forecast area. Think some clouds will linger over SE KS
for most of the overnight hours, as the upper hours drops south
through MO.

Ketcham

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

Tonight through Wednesday:
Scattered light showers with isolated thunder will continue across
central/eastern Kansas, before diminishing this evening. Surface
high pressure will build into the region overnight into Wednesday,
with much cooler than normal air with lows tonight in the 40s.
With scattered afternoon cumulus Wednesday, a slight downslope
component and decent insolation should allow highs in the mid 60s
to lower 70s.

Thursday-Friday:

A southern branch upper jet feed is progged from the Desert
Southwest to over Kansas/Oklahoma during this time frame, at the
base of a deep upper trough extending from an upper low over
Saskatchewan/Manitoba through the Rockies. Southerly return flow
will allow increasingly rich Gulf moisture into the central/southern
Plains, beneath a plume of very steep mid-level lapse rates. There
is decent model agreement that a low amplitude shortwave, embedded
within the southern branch jet, will reach the central High Plains
late Thursday afternoon where a cold front/dryline intersection is
indicated. Isolated to scattered severe storms should initiate over
eastern Colorado and northwest Kansas in the late afternoon. This
activity could merge into an MCS cluster or two, propagating
eastward across roughly the northern half of Kansas Thursday night,
aided by a southerly low-level jet and isentropic ascent. This
activity could pose a risk for large hail/damaging winds in central
Kansas during the evening hours.

The cold front is progged to stall from central Missouri to
northwest Oklahoma on Friday. Although there is a small chance for
surface-based storms near the front in far southeast Kansas Friday
afternoon/evening, there is a higher probability of storms
initiation in upslope flow over the central high Plains Friday
afternoon/evening, propagating eastward again Friday night. Severe
hail/winds would be possible with any storms in our forecast area
Friday night given moderately strong deep-layer shear and strong
elevated instability.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

The ECMWF and GFS indicate the main upper trough will translate
eastward across the Plains Saturday into Sunday. This will shunt the
cold front southward to near the Texas Gulf coast by Sunday into
early next week. Lingering chances of showers/thunderstorms on
Saturday, should diminish greatly by Sunday into early next week.
Near seasonal temperatures are expected during this extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Diurnal cumulus
associated along the southwest edge of the upper low in Iowa is
expected to produce scattered rain showers for a few more hours,
before dissipating after sunset. Will include some VCSH for the KCNU
taf site with this in mind.

Upper low and the diurnally driven Cu will shift east of the area
for Wed.  Only KCNU may see some broken mid clouds for Wed
afternoon.

Ketcham


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    45  70  49  79 /  20   0   0   0
Hutchinson      44  70  49  79 /  10   0   0   0
Newton          44  68  48  77 /  20   0   0   0
ElDorado        45  68  48  78 /  20   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   46  69  49  80 /  20   0   0   0
Russell         41  70  49  79 /  10   0   0   0
Great Bend      42  71  50  80 /  10   0   0   0
Salina          44  70  48  79 /  20   0   0   0
McPherson       44  70  48  78 /  20   0   0   0
Coffeyville     46  68  47  78 /  20  10   0   0
Chanute         47  67  47  77 /  20  10   0   0
Iola            46  66  47  77 /  20  10   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    47  67  47  78 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Ketcham
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...Ketcham


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