Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 281800
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1200 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CIRCULATION APPROACHING THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WITH A MUCH MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTING OVER THE
NORTHEAST SEABOARD. AT THE SURFACE...LEE TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM
WESTERN ND DOWN INTO THE OK PANHANDLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

THE UPPER IMPULSE APPROACHING THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT
ACROSS NEBRASKA/NORTHERN KS. AS THIS OCCURS A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL GRADUALLY FLIP WINDS
AROUND TO THE WEST AND THEN NW. WHILE 850MB TEMPS WON`T BE AS
EXTREME AS THEY WERE TUE...INCREASED DOWNSLOPE AND MIXING WILL
ALLOW FULL HEATING POTENTIAL WHICH WILL RESULT IN MUCH OF THE AREA
SEEING HIGHS IN THE 70S AGAIN. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SPILL SOUTH
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO THU. EVEN THOUGH HIGHS WILL BE
AROUND 20 DEGREES COOLER...THEY WILL STILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. BY FRI OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE COMING ON SHORE OVER
SOUTHERN CA/BAJA AND WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIP THIS
WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

PRECIP WILL SPREAD FROM SW TO NE FRI NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
SW CONUS. THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH AGREE ON TRACKING ADDITIONAL
ENERGY OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND TRACKING IT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FOR SAT. THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO LINGER OVER THE
AREA SAT INTO SUN MORNING. LATEST MODEL RUNS DID WARM UP THE LOWER
LAYERS COMPARED TO THE EARLIER RUNS WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A BIT
MORE RAIN THEN SNOW. CENTRAL KS STILL LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST SHOT
TO SEE SOME MEASURABLE SNOW WHICH MOST OF IT OCCURRING SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING WHEN THE MUCH COLDER AIR SPILLS SOUTH.

FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE HIGHS ON SUN WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL WITH MOST LOCATIONS NOT GETTING TO THE FREEZING MARK. THIS
COOLER AIR SHOULD REMAIN INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE FIRST
18 HOURS AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SURFACE
TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY NW
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES INTO THE OVERNIGHT.  COULD SEE SOME SW
WIND GUSTS TO 25KTS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH.  ALSO COULD SEE SOME GUSTY
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST EARLY ON THU...AS COOLER AIR STARTS TO
FILTER INTO THE PLAINS.  THIS COOLER AIR MAY ALSO LEAD TO SOME
STRATO-CU MOVING SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SE KS FOR THU
MORNING. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 3500 FT AGL...BUT COULD SEE
THE CIGS AS LOW AS 3000 FT AGL FOR KSLN AND KCNU.

KETCHAM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL BE IN THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY
TODAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY COME AROUND TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST
OVER CENTRAL KS THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THEY REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH
FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-135. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
OVER SE KS WHERE GUSTS IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON
RH`S WILL RANGE FROM BETWEEN 20 AND 25% OVER CENTRAL KS TO AROUND
30% OVER SE KS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    74  39  51  26 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      72  38  50  24 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          72  39  49  24 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        73  40  50  25 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   76  40  52  26 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         72  35  49  24 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      73  37  50  25 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          72  35  47  24 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       72  38  49  24 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     74  41  50  25 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         73  40  47  24 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            71  40  47  24 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    74  41  48  25 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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