Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 222326
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
626 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Excessive heat with high temperatures near/above 100 degrees
may linger through Sunday before increasing chances for storms
arrive. Deep vertical mixing/low level advection of drier air may
allow heat indices to remain below 105 across much of the area on
Sunday allowing the heat headlines expire on Sat.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2016

A subtle shortwave trough drifting over the Central High Plains has
resulted in an area of elevated showers across northern KS through
the early afternoon hours. Some of this activity may drift into our
central KS counties later this afternoon lingering into this
evening/tonight and maintained low pops. Large T/TD depressions may
lead to some gusty winds but organized severe storms are not
anticipated.

Sat-Sun...Another day with excessive heat is anticipated on Sat as
the front is progged to remain well north of the area and the
excessive heat warning will remain in effect for all of the area.
Maintained low pops across central KS toward daybreak on Sun as a
vigorous shortwave trough moving across southern Canada drives a
cold front south into the Central Plains states. This front will
provide a focus for more widespread storm activity on Sunday-Sunday
night although differences in how far south the front progresses
remain. Deep moist convection along the front will likely drive the
effective front further south and prefer a more southern
solution...therefore maintained higher pops across the area late
Sunday. Cloud debris and the potential for fropa will keep Sunday
free from heat headlines.

The remnant frontal boundary may provide a focus for more storms
on Mon although confidence remains fairly low at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2016

The mid/upper ridge over the Central Plains is progged to retrograde
over the Central Great Basin area resulting in northwest mid/upper
flow returning across the central conus. This may allow for
multiple opportunities for deep moist convection as we move
through the week with a return to more seasonable temperatures.
High through the period are expected to top out in the low to mid
90s with lows mostly in the lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2016

A few thunderstorms will occur in the airspace along I-70.
Otherwise, hot with highs 104-110 in most locations. Winds will
remain from the south through the period. CIGS and VSBYS VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    76 104  76 100 /  10  10  10  10
Hutchinson      77 105  77  99 /  10  10  10  20
Newton          77 102  77  98 /  10  10  10  20
ElDorado        75 101  75  98 /  10  10  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   76 102  76  99 /  10  10  10  10
Russell         75 104  74  98 /  20  10  20  30
Great Bend      75 104  74  98 /  20  10  20  30
Salina          79 105  78 101 /  20  10  20  20
McPherson       76 105  76  98 /  10  10  10  20
Coffeyville     75  99  76  98 /  10   0  10  10
Chanute         76  99  76  98 /  10   0  10  10
Iola            75  99  75  97 /  10   0  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    75  99  76  98 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWM
SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...KRC



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