Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 290447
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1147 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

A large storm system was located over the Central Great Basin area
this afternoon. This system is progged to dig into the Southwest
states on Saturday before moving over the Southern Rockies and
eventually lifting out across the Central Plains states on Sunday.
This will bring widespread and prolonged periods of moderate to
heavy rain through the day on Sunday before the system exits the
region Sunday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Short term model consensus continues to support an axis of heavier
rain impacting Southeast KS and locations south and east into the
Eastern OK and much of Arkansas and Southern MO. Much like the prior
forecaster, the greatest threat for intense rain rates and
associated flash flooding are expected to remain southeast of our
forecast area across Eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas and the southern
half of Missouri. The latest ECMWF has trended south and east
with the heaviest QPF axis although some of our rivers may still
see some rises and potential flooding problems with a widespread
1-2 inches with locally higher amounts anticipated from tonight
through Sunday.

We are still seeing the potential for a rain/snow mix working
into portions of Central KS on Sunday/Sunday evening...mainly
along and west of highway 281 where some light accumulations may
be possible. Temperatures will struggle to remain low enough for
more significant accumulations along hwy 281 but confidence
increases as you move west where a foot or more of snow may fall
across portions of Western KS.

This storm system will lift northeast toward the Upper Mississippi
Valley area on Monday with clearing skies and dry weather conditions
in it`s wake.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Another progressive shortwave trough will dig across the
Central Rockies and into the Central Plains late Tue into Wed
bringing another round of showers and storms to the area. As we move
through the remainder of the week, a mid/upper ridge over the
Southwest states is progged to expand eastward bringing dry weather
conditions and mild temperatures late in the week and into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

A cold front will continue to push southward across southeast
Kansas overnight. Meanwhile showers will expand over central/south
central Kansas overnight with thunderstorms in southeast Kansas. A
few strong/severe storms will be possible across far southeast
Kansas overnight. Low clouds in the IFR/LIFR range will affect
much of the region for tonight through Saturday. Periods of rain
or drizzle will be possible during the daytime hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    48  52  41  46 /  90 100  70  70
Hutchinson      45  47  39  43 / 100 100  70  70
Newton          45  49  40  46 /  90 100  70  70
ElDorado        48  53  43  49 /  90 100  70  60
Winfield-KWLD   50  56  44  49 / 100 100  70  60
Russell         40  42  37  39 / 100 100  80  90
Great Bend      40  42  37  39 / 100 100  70  80
Salina          44  46  39  42 /  90 100  80  80
McPherson       44  47  39  43 /  90 100  70  80
Coffeyville     57  61  51  55 / 100 100  80  60
Chanute         53  58  51  55 / 100 100  80  60
Iola            52  57  51  55 / 100 100  80  70
Parsons-KPPF    55  60  51  55 / 100 100  80  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KSZ100.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWM
SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...CDJ


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