Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 200924
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
324 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 303 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Today-tonight:
Brief increase in precipitation over the next couple hours is
expected from transient frontogenesis, but expect precipitation
wane quickly during the morning. Will likely be able to trim/nix
the winter weather advisory prior to its noon expiration. Some
recovery in temperatures is possible with decreasing clouds in the
west. The clearing should allow temperatures to drop well into the
teens and single digits in central KS, while clouds should keep
temperatures slightly warmer in southeast KS.

Wednesday-Wednesday night:
Lowered temperatures a bit on Wednesday given the extensive clouds
and the cold start. Main issue is the moisture will start to
return north on Wednesday, with a very impressive 850MB-700MB
moisture and warm air advection pattern by Wednesday night.
Current thinking is precipitation will start as flurries and/or
light snow, transition to a wintry mix in the evening and then to
freezing rain overnight. Am very concerned that median QPF amounts
are closer to a third of an inch overnight. Forecast has around
0.07-0.15 inch of ice and around an inch of snow for a good
portion of the area. A lot will depend on the thermal profile and
timing of the snow/sleet transition. Am concerned that there could
be more than a quarter inch of ice. Given that the bulk of the
precipitation will occur Wednesday night, will hold off on any
headlines for now but will mention potential impact in hazardous
weather outlook and weather story.

Thursday:
The thermal/moisture advection wanes Thursday morning before
ramping up in the afternoon as another ripple in the flow moves
through. It currently appears that the warm air advection will
erode the low level cold air and transition the precipitation type
to rain. A lot is riding on the thermal profile three days out and
current models have not exactly been nailing the forecast so stay
tuned. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 303 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Another wave supposedly transitions through the area on Thursday,
bringing another increased chance for precipitation. With surface
boundary and sub-freezing air continuing to slosh around the
region, confidence is below average on the critical finer details.
Once precipitation exits on Saturday, appears that there will be
a couple of drier and overall warmer days. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1152 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Current zone of lift and associated precipitation with embedded
thunder should continue to exit to the northeast between 06-08z.
Later tonight into Tuesday morning, another round of deep lift
should once again expand precipitation from roughly the Turnpike
on east. Precipitation type will be tricky. In the warmer air
across southeast KS, precipitation type will be showers with
embedded thunderstorms. Further northwest in the colder air,
areas of freezing drizzle, freezing rain and perhaps some sleet
are expected along with embedded thunder. Additionally,
widespread IFR to LIFR conditions will persist overnight into
Tuesday morning. Conditions will gradually improve from west to
east Tuesday morning. Given the busy weather, anticipate numerous
TAF amendments will be needed overnight thru Tuesday morning, so
stay tuned.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 303 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

There are no indications of serious fire weather threats through
the over the next seven days, with multiple chances for
precipitation across the area. -Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    32  18  32  24 /  70   0  30  70
Hutchinson      31  15  31  21 /  40   0  20  70
Newton          30  15  32  21 /  60   0  20  70
ElDorado        31  17  32  23 /  80   0  20  70
Winfield-KWLD   34  20  31  26 /  80  10  30  70
Russell         28   9  30  17 /  10   0  10  30
Great Bend      29  11  30  17 /  10   0  10  40
Salina          30  12  31  21 /  30   0  10  60
McPherson       29  14  31  20 /  40   0  20  70
Coffeyville     39  24  36  28 / 100  10  20  60
Chanute         33  22  34  27 / 100  10  20  60
Iola            32  20  34  26 / 100  10  10  70
Parsons-KPPF    36  23  35  28 / 100  10  20  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>070-082-083-091-092.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...ADK
FIRE WEATHER...PJH



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