Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 230730
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
230 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 227 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

A surface cold front was sinking southward across Kansas during the
predawn hours. The front will continue to push further south with
cooler/drier air overspreading the region as northwest flow aloft
provides a decent push on the frontal boundary. A few lingering
showers and storms will be possible mainly for this morning but not
expecting strong or severe weather. Below normal daytime highs will
continue through the weekend, as surface high pressure remains over
the central plains and northwest flow sharpens. Models show a couple
weak upper level waves traveling through the northwest flow that
could generate some showers/storms over central Kansas for both
Saturday and Sunday night. The signal is a little stronger on Sunday
night with better warm air advection in the mid-levels.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 227 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Temperatures will gradually warm this period as southerly winds
increase for Tuesday-Thursday. The better chances of rain will
arrive for Tuesday and Wednesday nights, as the upper level flow
becomes more zonal and upper level waves travel west to east across
the Heartland.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Aviation concern will be storms over the next few hours.

Storms that developed out over western KS continue to attempt to
push east with one last cluster now getting into Russell and
Barton counties. While there is an occasional flare up, the
overall trend has been for this activity to be on the decrease as
they continue east. The short range models that are picking up on
this convection, continue to weaken them as they track southeast.
So feel that KRSL-KGBD and KSLN will have the best chance to see
thunder, generally between 06z-09z. Did throw some VCTS in at
KICT-KHUT but confidence in this panning out is much lower than
over central KS. Even though ceilings will lower behind the front
as cooler air spills-in, confidence is high they will stay above
IFR levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    82  58  82  61 /  20  10   0  10
Hutchinson      80  56  82  58 /  20   0   0  10
Newton          80  57  81  59 /  20   0   0  10
ElDorado        80  56  80  58 /  20   0   0  10
Winfield-KWLD   82  58  82  60 /  30  10   0  10
Russell         78  54  81  56 /  20   0   0  10
Great Bend      79  55  82  57 /  20   0   0  10
Salina          79  56  83  58 /  20   0   0  10
McPherson       80  55  82  57 /  20   0   0  10
Coffeyville     83  57  82  58 /  20  10   0   0
Chanute         81  56  81  57 /  20   0   0  10
Iola            81  56  81  57 /  20   0   0  10
Parsons-KPPF    82  58  81  58 /  20   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...RBL



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