Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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495
FXUS63 KICT 121130
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
530 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

MAIN CHALLENGE IS CHANCES FOR VERY LIGHT PRECIP SUNDAY MORNING.
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION STUNTING THE DIURNAL RECOVERY TODAY
MOST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. STRONG LOW LEVEL DRYING WILL TAKE
PLACE TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WITH THE COLD/DRY AIR
SUPPORTING MINS IN THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DESPITE THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY...THE COLD START
AND SLOW MODIFICATION OF THE RECYCLED POLAR AIRMASS WILL KEEP
MAXS WELL BELOW SEASONAL CLIMO. AN UPPER TROF WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT.
THE DEGREE AND DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL SATURATION WILL DETERMINE
WHETHER SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP CAN DEVELOP TOWARD OR JUST AFTER
DAWN ON SUNDAY MORNING. IF SO...PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENT FRONTAL TIMING ALSO SUGGESTS SOME PATCHY
FREEZING FOG MAY ALSO OCCUR NEAR FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS AROUND DAWN. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES CHANCES MAY
LINGER INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WITH DRY AND
MILDER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS. A TRAILING SHORTWAVE UPPER TROF WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL AMPLIFY THE UPPER TROF
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS ON MONDAY. A FEW
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES MAY OCCUR ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE MAIN CHALLENGE NEXT WEEK IS DAILY TEMPERATURE TRENDS THRU
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH WARMER WEATHER BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. IT APPEARS AT LEAST ONE MORE SHORTWAVE
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE MEAN EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROF ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE BROAD RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES A BIT OF A
CHALLENGE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS SHALLOW/COOLER AIR
COULD AT LEAST TEMPORARILY AFFECT THE AREA. HOWEVER BY THURSDAY
A SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIRMASS COULD ADVECT INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS...WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING AS WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES HAVE BECOME NORTHWESTERLY THIS
MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO VEER NORTHWEST TO WEST THROUGHOUT THIS
TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MVFR CEILINGS HAVE CONTINUED TO ADVECT
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TOWARDS CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE...HAVE CONTINUED THE
OVERALL TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS TAFS IN REGARDS TO BRINGING IN MVFR
CEILINGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT KRSL/KSLN...AND HAVE
INTRODUCED A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS LATER THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON AT KGBD. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT BREEZY
AND POSSIBLY GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. HOWEVER...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED
MENTIONS OF GUSTY WINDS AT TERMINALS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS FOR
NOW...WHERE BETTER MIXING WILL DEVELOP.

JMR

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016 LOW TO MODERATE GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER MUCH WARMER
WEATHER IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO ELEVATE THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    43  19  37  30 /   0   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      41  17  37  28 /   0   0   0  10
NEWTON          40  16  35  28 /   0   0   0  10
ELDORADO        42  18  36  29 /   0   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   46  19  38  33 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELL         37  17  36  26 /   0  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      40  18  37  27 /   0  10  10  10
SALINA          38  16  35  26 /   0   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       39  17  36  27 /   0   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     45  18  38  30 /   0   0   0  10
CHANUTE         42  15  35  27 /   0   0   0  10
IOLA            40  13  33  26 /   0   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    44  16  37  29 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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