Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 152307
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
607 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A
COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS INTO THIS EVENING. LIFT ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE
DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND DIURNAL HEATING. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD MID PM INTO
EARLY EVE...BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY PUSHES SOUTH OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A STRONG PULSE STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MLCAPES OF
1500-2000 J/KG BUT WEAK SHEAR OF 20-25 KNOTS. NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT...WILL USHER IN COOLER/DRIER AIR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE UPPER RIDGING SPREADS IN FROM THE
WEST ON THURSDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL RETURN WITH THE FRONT. SCATTERED STORM
CHANCES WILL EXIST NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF THE FRONTAL
ZONE...AIDED BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD WANE/END THURSDAY
AS UPPER RIDGING SPREADS OVER THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY
THURSDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE ODILE...PRESENTLY DRIFTING NORTH OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH THE GFS SHOWS SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING...BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF PROG THE REMNANTS GETTING ABSORBED INTO AN EASTWARD
MOVING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER TROUGH...HELPING TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2
INCHES OR SLIGHTLY BETTER ARE PROGGED ON THE GFS AS THE REMNANTS AND
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY IN OUR FORECAST AREA FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL EVENT...WITH POCKETS OF VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE GIVEN THE TROPICAL CONNECTION. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST DURING TUESDAY.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    57  76  64  85 /  10  10  20  20
HUTCHINSON      55  76  63  85 /  10  10  20  20
NEWTON          54  74  62  83 /  10  10  30  20
ELDORADO        54  75  62  83 /  10  10  30  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   59  77  64  85 /  30  10  20  20
RUSSELL         51  73  62  83 /   0  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      53  74  62  85 /   0  10  20  20
SALINA          49  73  62  83 /   0  10  30  20
MCPHERSON       53  74  63  83 /  10  10  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     59  76  63  81 /  40  10  30  20
CHANUTE         55  74  60  80 /  30  10  40  20
IOLA            55  73  59  79 /  20  10  40  20
PARSONS-KPPF    58  75  61  81 /  40  10  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$







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