Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 271732
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1232 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A COLD FRONT WAS BISECTING THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT WITH
ISOLATED POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHAT LITTLE SUPPORT
THERE IS FOR RENEWED DEVELOPMENT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO MAY LINGER THROUGH 15-16Z BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE
AREA AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SEASONABLE AIR TO THE AREA TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIODS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE 80S MON-TUE. MAINTAINED LOW POPS ALONG
THE WESTERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME
IS PROGGED WITHIN A WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS MAY DRIFT EASTWARD IMPACTING THE
AREA LATE TUE WHILE BETTER CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT BRINGING A SUBTLE WAVE
EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WED-WED NIGHT AND
MAINTAINED MID POPS WEIGHTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES. DUE TO
LIMITED INSOLATION/PRECIPITATION...HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT
OF THE 70S. THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
DEPICTING A LARGE TROUGH MEANDERING/RETROGRADING ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA THU-SAT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR AND CONTINUED CHANCES
FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED TSRA WILL
CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. KICT IS MOST LIKELY TO
BE IMPACTED BY A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL AREAS THRU THE
FORECAST VALID PERIOD.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    89  65  87  65 /  30   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      88  64  86  64 /  30   0   0  10
NEWTON          88  64  85  64 /  20   0   0  10
ELDORADO        90  64  86  62 /  30   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   91  66  87  65 /  30   0   0   0
RUSSELL         87  63  86  63 /   0   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      86  63  86  63 /  10   0   0  10
SALINA          90  62  87  62 /   0   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       88  64  86  64 /  10   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     93  64  88  62 /  20   0   0   0
CHANUTE         91  63  86  61 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            90  62  85  60 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    92  64  87  61 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$







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