Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 121748
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1248 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

AS WAS EXPECTED EARLY YESTERDAY MORNING A WEAK NEARLY EAST/WEST
ORIENTED MID-LEVEL WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA
BORDER WHILE A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH
SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO WAS APPROACHING THE
NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER. AN MCS RESIDED NORTH OF THE FRONT OVER
NEBRASKA. ACROSS KANSAS WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES RESIDING
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE EXTENSIVE CIRRIFORM DEBRIS WAS
SPREADING EAST OVER THESE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

TODAY:
WITH THE SE DRIFTING COLD FRONT REMAINING NW OF KICT COUNTRY A HOT
DAY WOULD RESULT FOR THE NEIGHBORHOOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG & NORTH OF THE FRONT WOULD THEREFORE
REMAIN NW-N OF THE NEIGHBORHOOD FROM NEBRASKA TO NORTHWEST KANSAS
ALTHOUGH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ENCROACH UPON THE NW CORRIDOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT:
A 2ND & SOMEWHAT STRONGER NE-SW ORIENTED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT
SHOULD EXTEND ACROSS NEBRASKA WILL KICK THE COLD FRONT SE ACROSS
KANSAS TONIGHT & SUNDAY AS IT PUSHES E/SE TOWARD...THEN ACROSS...
THE MID MS VALLEY. LIFT IS FEEBLE & AS SUCH COVERAGE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE SCATTERED WITH THE GREATER COVERAGE OCCURRING OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST KANSAS & NORTHERN MISSOURI WHERE LIFT
WOULD BE A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED. WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
GRADUALLY STRETCHING FURTHER SW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS & SOUTHEAST
COLORADO THE COLD FRONT WOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH SE ACROSS THE KANSAS
OKLAHOMA BORDER SUN AFTERNOON. AS SUCH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
WILL SHIFT S/SE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL & SOUTHEAST KANSAS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON & NIGHT. FEEBLE LIFT DICTATES KEEPING POPS ~20% ACROSS
THE NEIGHBORHOOD ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A PRONOUNCED NE-SW ORIENTED
UPPER-DECK WAVE THAT`LL SURGE SE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN & MANITOBA
WILL UNDERGO RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE CYCLONE SURGES SE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THE
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WOULD INCREASE WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS WHERE RICHER MOISTURE WILL POOL
ALONG & NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT.

MONDAY & MONDAY NIGHT:
WITH THE EXTREMELY INTENSE CYCLONE WOUND UP LIKE AN ALARM CLOCK
AS IT BEGINS TO GYRATE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
WAVE WOULD SURGE SE ACROSS THE UPPER & MID-MS VALLEY ON MON. THIS
WOULD BRING MORE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE KANSAS NEIGHBORHOOD. AS THE
UPEPR WAVE SURGES SE OVER THE OH VALLEY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD SHIFT
SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY:
YET ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES & MOVE SE TOWARD THE OK & TX PANHANDLES. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS
WITH A FEW REACHING THE WESTERN HALF OF KICT COUNTRY. THIS SCENARIO
WAS DEPICTED THE PAST 2 NIGHTS. AS THE WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES ITS SLOW SE JOURNEY ACROSS THE NEW MEXICO/TEXAS BORDER
ANY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WOULD LIKEWISE SHIFT S/SE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WED NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD S ACROSS THE
NEIGHBORHOOD WED & WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY:
QUIET WEATHER SLATED FOR ALL AREAS ON THU WITH A WARMING TREND
OCCURING ON FRI AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ENSUES IN RESPONSE TO A
DEVELOPING SURFACE TROF ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE ONLY CONCERN
WILL BE A CHANCE OF LATE EVENING CONVECTION OVER NW KS VENTURING
EAST-SOUTHEAST...POSSIBLY AFFECTING CENTRAL KS LATE THIS EVENING.
THINK A CHANCE EXISTS OF THIS CONVECTION GETTING INTO THE KRSL/KSLN
TAF SITES...SO WILL GO WITH A VCTS FOR NOW. CONFIDENCE ISNT HIGH
ENOUGH TO GO WITH A TEMPO GROUP JUST YET.

THIS CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
ON SUN. AS THIS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH...EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE N-NW
INITIALLY FOR KRSL/KSLN BY AROUND 06-09Z AND BY 12-14Z FOR KHUT AND
KICT.

ALSO...DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE CONVECTIVE
CHANCES IN CENTRAL KS WILL GET.  AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY LAGS WELL
BEHIND THE FRONT. SO WILL NOT INCLUDE A VCTS MENTION FURTHER SOUTH
FOR THE KICT/KHUT OR KCNU TAF.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    95  72  92  70 /  10  20  20  30
HUTCHINSON      94  72  89  70 /  10  30  20  20
NEWTON          93  71  89  68 /  10  20  20  20
ELDORADO        93  72  91  69 /  10  10  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   95  74  95  72 /  10  10  20  30
RUSSELL         96  70  89  70 /  10  50  20  20
GREAT BEND      95  71  88  69 /  10  40  20  20
SALINA          96  71  89  69 /  10  40  20  20
MCPHERSON       95  72  89  69 /  10  30  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     96  75  96  73 /   0  10  20  30
CHANUTE         95  73  93  71 /   0  10  20  30
IOLA            94  73  92  70 /   0  10  20  30
PARSONS-KPPF    95  74  94  72 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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