Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 071145
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
545 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 257 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

A progressive shortwave trough moving over the Rockies will bring a
period of light snow or flurries to central KS today. The most
pronounced area of mid-level frontogenesis is now progged to skirt
across central KS and weaken as we move through the afternoon
hours lowering confidence in exceeding more than an inch or so. In
addition, the lower column remains quite dry with some t/td
depressions exceeding 15-20 degrees during the predawn hours. As
you move away from central KS into south central and southeast
KS, trace amounts will be most common before light precipitation
ends from west to east by late afternoon or early evening. Clearing
conditions are expected this evening as a polar airmass invades
the region driving lows into the single digits across portions of
central KS.

High pressure will build over the area on Thursday and Thursday
night with highs on Thursday 15-20 degrees below normal. Wind chills
on Thursday night will drop below zero across much of central KS
with single digit lows becoming widespread across the area. High
pressure is progged to translate eastward toward the Ohio Valley
area on Friday with moderating temperatures anticipated across the
Central Plains.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 257 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

More seasonable temperatures will return on Saturday as breezy
southerly winds return ahead of another progressive shortwave
trough moving over the Northern Rockies. This system may not have
enough moisture to work with given the progressive nature with
higher probabilities for light precipitation remaining east of the
forecast area. A progressive pattern will result in multiple
frontal passages from Sunday-Tuesday and trended temperatures
below climate normals through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 543 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

Rather messy avation forecast with bouts of MVFR ceilings and light
snow as a shortwave and 700mb baroclinic zone traverses the area.
Confidence in timing of onset of precipitation is not particularly
high given dry sub-cloud layer. This will likely take a fair
amount of precipitation to saturate. Lift will shift to the
southeast fairly quickly, but low clouds will linger a bit longer in
the low level cold air advection. Anticipate VFR conditions to
develop later this evening as drier air advects into the region.
-Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    35  14  29   9 /  30  10   0   0
Hutchinson      31  12  28   6 /  40  10   0   0
Newton          31  11  26   9 /  40  10   0   0
ElDorado        34  13  27   9 /  40  10   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   36  15  30  10 /  30  10   0   0
Russell         26   8  25   5 /  70   0   0   0
Great Bend      28   8  27   7 /  70   0   0   0
Salina          30   9  26   6 /  60   0   0   0
McPherson       30  10  26   6 /  40  10   0   0
Coffeyville     37  16  31  11 /  40  20   0   0
Chanute         35  15  29  10 /  60  20   0   0
Iola            34  14  27  10 /  60  20   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    36  16  30   9 /  50  20   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...PJH


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