Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 192011
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
311 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

MID/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS HEIGHTS INCREASING SOME ACROSS THE
PLAINS TODAY...AS AN UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN COAST
OF THE US.  THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER TODAY AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS A LITTLE BIT LOWER.

THE WARMER TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY DRIER DEWPOINTS WILL BE THE STORY FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE LOW IN THE WRN US REMAINS STATIONARY THROUGH
THU.  THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
TEMP/DEWPOINT COMBINATIONS FLIRTING WITH BUT JUST BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA... ESPECIALLY OVER SE KS WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL WILL
BE A TICK OR TWO HIGHER.

WARMER TEMPS WILL ALSO INCREASE ALOFT AS WELL.  THIS WILL
EFFECTIVELY CAP OFF ANY SHOWER/STORM CHANCES FOR THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED TO RACE NORTH INTO
SRN NEB TONIGHT...WHICH WILL KEEP ANY OVERNIGHT STORM DEVELOPMENT
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. GFS IS A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH (ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER) WITH THE 850-700H FN-CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAN THE NAM/WRF. WHICH
COULD LEAD TO STORMS POSSIBLY PROPAGATING INTO CENTRAL KS LATE
TONIGHT. BUT THINK THE NAM/WRF HAS THE RIGHT IDEA OF PUSHING THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FURTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL NEB. SO WILL KEEP THE
PRECIP MENTION OUT OF CENTRAL KS OVERNIGHT.

THE WARM TEMPS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LEAD TO MORE OF THE HOT
LATE SUMMER TEMPS FOR WED/THU AS WELL. SO WILL KEEP WED DRY AS
WELL...AS CAP LOOKS TO HOLD TIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
STORM CHANCES ONCE AGAIN FOCUSED FURTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL NEB.

WILL KEEP SOME SMALL POPS IN FOR CENTRAL KS FOR THU EVENING...AS THE
LEE SIDE TROUGH BEGINS TO SET UP ACROSS NW KS....AS MID LEVEL FLOW
BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF SW FLOW.  THIS WILL LEAD TO POSSIBLE
STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGH PLAINS POSSIBLY PROPAGATING INTO
CENTRAL KS LATE THU EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THU.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN OUT OF THE SW INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST
ECMWF AND THE GFS KEEP THE LEE SIDE TROUGH FIRMLY IN PLACE ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES FOR FRI AND POSSIBLY INTO SAT.  SO MOST
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH
STORMS PROPAGATING OUT OF NW KS AND POSSIBLY INTO CENTRAL KS ON FRI
EVENING. BOTH THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOWING A LOT WEAKER EXIT OF
THE WRN US SHORTWAVE INTO THE PLAINS...WITH THE MODELS NOW KEEPING
ANY KIND OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE W-NW OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
SAT. SO CHANCE OF STORMS ON SAT WILL PROBABLY BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL
KS...WHERE PROPAGATION MAY TAKE ANY HIGH PLAINS STORMS. MODELS STILL
ADVERTISING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FOR SUN/MON...SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR THIS.

WITH SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MAX TEMPS FOR FRI/SAT
NOW LOOKING MORE LIKE WED-THU HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S...AND A SLIGHT
COOL DOWN STILL EXPECTED FOR SUN/MON.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL LOCATIONS.
DETECTING A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAT IS
HELPING TO GENERATE SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN CWA.
AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...CLOUDS
WILL GO WITH IT...EXCEPT FOR SOME SCATTERED CIRRUS. THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION AFTER 06 UTC AS
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/CONVERGENCE ALONG 315 THETA SURFACE POSSIBLY
ENHANCED BY WEAK PV ANOMALY TRAVERSING NORTHERN KS/SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS SCANT...SO NOT WORTH
INTRODUCING CLOUDS LET ALONG THUNDER THREAT FOR KSLN.

ONLY OTHER AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING SURFACE WIND
SPEEDS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND IS SUSTAINED OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL VEER TO A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE.

SF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  98  76  98 /   0   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      73  98  76  98 /   0   0   0  10
NEWTON          73  97  76  97 /   0   0   0  10
ELDORADO        73  98  76  98 /   0   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   74  98  75  98 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELL         72  96  74  97 /   0  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      72  96  75  97 /   0  10   0  10
SALINA          73 100  76  99 /   0  10   0  10
MCPHERSON       72  98  76  98 /   0   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     73  99  74  99 /   0   0   0  10
CHANUTE         72  98  74  98 /   0  10   0  10
IOLA            72  98  74  97 /   0  10   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    73  99  74  98 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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