Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 261745
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1245 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Today-tonight:
Looks like precipitation will continue to decrease in intensity
throughout the morning, with bulk of precipitation most likely in
Central KS in the vicinity of best 850MB convergence by daybreak.
This precipitation could linger into the afternoon around KSLN.
The southern half of forecast area is a bit more challenging.
Combo of decreasing clouds/insolation and very moist ground could
set stage for afternoon convection. This seems probable given
ripple in upper flow that will likely traverse the area early this
evening. All models seem to more or less suggest this, but
location and coverage is uncertain. Would probably hedge to the
area east of I-35 and in the vicinity of surface boundary/differential
heating in Central KS. At this point, plan to let flash flood watch
expire on schedule.

Saturday-Sunday:
Upper trough weakens and ejects into the plains early on Saturday
which could keep Friday evening convection going or regenerate
convection around daybreak. At face value, models suggest surface
boundary will either wash out or lift north of area by Saturday
afternoon. But with moist airmass and potential for either ripples
in zonal flow and/or outflow boundary from earlier convection,
will need to keep low pops going for now. Temperatures will remain
tricky, with a lot depending on extent/timing of afternoon
convection and convective debris. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Normally would expect precipitation to be mostly shut down as upper
ridge builds and flow weakens across the Central Plains. However
that has not been the case this year, and models continue to hint
at at least isolated convection throughout this period. Temperatures
remain tricky, with temperatures aloft and upper ridge supporting
near/above normal temperatures, but extensive clouds/convection
will likely result in significant errors on some days/locations.
-Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Aviation concern will be late afternoon/evening storm chances.

Front that storms developed on Thu afternoon has lifted back to
the north and stretches from northeast KS to generally along
I-70. Some IFR cigs linger over central KS(KRSL-KGBD-KSLN) and
should stay around just for a couple more hours. First chance for
storms will be over southeast KS in a couple hours where greatest
instability will be situated with development aided by an
approaching upper wave from the southwest. Storm chances will then
increase over central KS later tonight as storms move off the high
Plains this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    84  68  89  70 /  70  20  20  30
Hutchinson      81  67  88  69 /  50  30  20  30
Newton          81  67  87  69 /  50  20  20  20
ElDorado        85  67  88  70 /  60  20  30  30
Winfield-KWLD   85  68  90  70 /  70  20  20  30
Russell         76  63  86  67 /  60  50  20  30
Great Bend      79  64  87  67 /  70  40  20  30
Salina          77  66  88  69 /  60  50  30  30
McPherson       81  66  87  68 /  50  30  20  30
Coffeyville     87  68  90  70 /  30  20  30  20
Chanute         85  68  88  70 /  30  20  40  20
Iola            84  68  88  70 /  30  20  40  20
Parsons-KPPF    87  68  89  70 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...RBL



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