Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 281804
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
104 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

The slow moving storm system across the Central Plains is progged to
lift slowly northeast into the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley
area late today. Increasing large-scale forcing for subsidence will
overspread Kansas resulting in mostly dry conditions and seasonably
mild temperatures across the area today. There is some concern that
the remnant and diffuse frontal boundary may provide a focus for
afternoon storm development...mainly over Southeast Kansas, however
confidence remains low and any storm that does manage to develop
should be diurnally driven and quickly dissipate by early evening.

Low level moisture will return north across the area Saturday night
as southerly flow returns to the area but the airmass should remain
capped until Sunday and Monday when isolated to widely scattered
afternoon storms may return to the area as a shortwave trough
approaches from the west. Better chances may remain immediately west
of the forecast area on Sunday closer to the sfc trough axis or
along a diffuse dryline across the High Plains of Western Kansas.
Confidence on Monday remains fairly low with increasing mid and
upper level ridging impacting the Central Plains states...however
maintained low pops as we are progged to remain weakly capped and
moderately unstable during the afternoon hours. Seasonable highs in
the upper 70s and low 80s are anticipated through the period.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Storm chances will remain in the forecast Tuesday through early
Wednesday before a shortwave trough moves eastward across the
Northern Plains driving a cold front south across the forecast
area on Wednesday. A stable post-frontal regime is expected to
impact the Central Plains states through the latter half of the
week resulting in below normal temperatures and dry weather
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 103 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

VFR conditions are expected at all sites through first 15 hours
of forecast as dry air and ridge axis moves across area. Return
flow develops late tonight with low level moisture working back to
highway 400 by daybreak. This will likely lead to MVFR
ceilings/visibilities at KICT/KCNU just prior to daybreak, which
will persist into mid morning. Mid level moisture will spread
back from the southwest, which given elevated warm air/moisture
advection may lead to widely scattered elevated showers at
KGBD/KRSL near end of forecast. Probability of precipitation too
low to mention at KICT/KRSL. -howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    81  60  84  63 /  10  10  40  30
Hutchinson      81  60  84  61 /  10  10  40  30
Newton          80  59  83  61 /  10  10  40  30
ElDorado        81  61  84  64 /  10  10  40  30
Winfield-KWLD   82  62  85  65 /  10  10  40  30
Russell         79  56  82  58 /  10  10  40  30
Great Bend      80  58  82  59 /  10  10  40  30
Salina          80  57  84  61 /  20  10  40  30
McPherson       80  58  84  60 /  10  10  40  30
Coffeyville     83  63  85  64 /  10  20  30  20
Chanute         82  63  84  64 /  10  10  40  20
Iola            82  62  84  64 /  10  10  40  20
Parsons-KPPF    82  63  85  64 /  10  10  40  20

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...PJH



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