Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 160541
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1141 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 239 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

Water vapor imagery shows upper low currently churning over far sw
TX with strong upper diffluence lifting over the southern high
Plains. Cold front is still down over southern TX and has moved
little over last 24 hours.

Strong 850-700mb moisture transport has been the main driver for
widespread rainfall over the forecast area today. This area of
rain will continue and will be further enhanced as upper dynamics
lift toward the area. Temps are expected to stay at or just below
freezing tonight for areas generally north of a Hutch to Marion
line and this is where we`ll keep the warning in effect
overnight. With the rainfall amounts expected, these locations
could easily pick up another quarter to half inch overnight. As
warm nose starts to cool, should also see some sleet start to get
mixed in over central KS late tonight into Mon morning. Majority
of the measurable snow amounts are still expected to be just west
of our forecast area as a pronounced dry slot moves over the area
on Mon. By Mon afternoon, the upper low will be lifting across
northeast KS, with the better precip chances over eastern Nebraska
and Iowa.

Still good model agreement that additional shortwave energy will
quickly follow on the heels of this wave Mon night and is
expected to dive over Nebraska along with central and eastern KS.
Airmass will still be too dry for this feature to bring precip.

Wide range in temps expected Mon as central KS remains in the cold
sector of this wave while SE KS gets into the 50s. Will moderate
temps into mid week, with widespread 50s in place by Wed.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 239 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

ECMWF and GFS still both agree on lifting a southern stream
shortwave out of the southern Plains and across east-central KS
Thu into Thu night. There is also good agreement that the better
precip chances with this system will stay generally east of our
forecast area. Pattern will remain very active as yet another
upper impulse is expected to lift across west-central KS Fri into
Fri evening which may bring some precip chances for the northern
portion of forecast area. However, the main system to keep an eye
on will be another southern stream wave, set to kick out into the
southern Plains Sat-Sun.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1131 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

Main Aviation Hazards:
Freezing rain potential in west-central through north-central Kansas
overnight into Monday morning, LIFR conditions area-wide tonight
into Monday morning, and a low-level wind shear threat at the ICT
and CNU terminals overnight into mid morning Monday.

There is a decent possibility that ceilings will climb into the
MVFR range Monday afternoon in south-central/southeast Kansas,
behind the surface low track as winds become west-southwesterly.
Otherwise, will maintain IFR in central Kansas.

Areas of fog or drizzle (possibly dense at times), could impact
areas along/SE of the KS Turnpike overnight into mid morning
mainly during rain-free periods. A south-southeasterly 50 KT low-
level jet, combined with light easterly surface winds, will
result in low-level wind shear at the ICT and CNU terminals during
the overnight/early morning hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    34  42  29  46 / 100  50  10  10
Hutchinson      32  36  28  45 / 100  60  10  10
Newton          32  39  28  44 / 100  60  10  10
ElDorado        35  47  29  45 / 100  60  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   36  45  29  47 / 100  40  10   0
Russell         30  33  25  42 / 100  90  20   0
Great Bend      30  34  26  43 / 100  80  20   0
Salina          32  35  27  43 / 100  90  20  10
McPherson       32  35  28  44 / 100  70  20  10
Coffeyville     39  55  33  48 / 100  60   0   0
Chanute         37  53  32  45 / 100 100  10   0
Iola            34  52  32  45 / 100 100  10   0
Parsons-KPPF    37  54  32  47 / 100  80  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Ice Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Monday for KSZ032-033-047>051-
067.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...JMC


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