Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 252345

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
645 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Issued at 201 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

With a cutoff low dominating the upper-air pattern across the
Pacific Northwest, broad west-southwest flow across the Rockies
has resulted in the developing of lee troughing and upper-level
ridging across the central CONUS, expanding northward into much of
central Canada. Water vapor imagery and GOES derived satellite
winds show numerous shortwaves, embedded within this west-
southwest flow aloft, working their way towards the central
Plains. As the initial shortwave has continued to approach the
area this afternoon cloud cover has increased and began to nudge
surface troughing eastward resulting in an increased pressure
gradient and gusty south winds.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

The main forecast highlights through Friday will be the arrival
of a weak cold front with chances for showers and thunderstorms
tonight into Wednesday morning and the persistence of above normal
fall temperatures.

Lee troughing has slowly begun to nudge eastward into western
Kansas this afternoon as a subtle shortwave has begun to eject out
across the central Plains. With the warm front lifting north of
the area into Nebraska, thinking that the better chances for
surface based convection will be along the triple point north of
the forecast area. Extending southward from the triple point will
be a weak cold front that will gradually push southeastward across
the area during the overnight and early morning hours. With no
real cold surge behind the frontal boundary, thinking the best
chance for showers and thunderstorms will hold off until better
upper-level support and moisture transport arrives around/after
dark. Expect showers and storms to develop across central Kansas
then gradually work their way southeastward into south central
Kansas and southeast Kansas around the midnight and early morning
timeframe, respectively. Given the timing of frontal passage there
may be a brief window where surface based convection will be
possible across central Kansas before becoming elevated. With a
decent elevated mixed layer advecting eastward ahead of the
frontal boundary, around 1500-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE should be
present for elevated convection to work with. With the effective
shear being on the marginal side of the spectrum, sitting around
30 knots, thinking a few storms could be strong to marginally
severe overnight and into the morning hours on Wednesday.

With no significant surge of post frontal cold air, the weak cold
front will takes its time clearing the area; therefore, we could
still see some lingering showers and thunderstorms across south
central and primarily southeast Kansas Wednesday morning. Skies
will gradually clear from west to east and temperatures should
modify nicely with a bit drier air mass in place and post frontal
downslope winds. For the remainder of the work week, confidence is
high that unseasonably warm temperatures will prevail with upper-
level ridging becoming quite established across the central CONUS.
Each day expect temperatures to warm a bit more, eventually
climbing back up into the 80s by Friday. Upon collaboration
temperatures were increased quite a bit towards the end of the
work week with warm air aloft nudging eastward and breezy
downslope winds developing ahead of lee troughing. Based on what
is currently forecasted, a few record high temperatures may be in
jeopardy on Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Over the weekend and into the early part of next week, both the
GFS and ECMWF are consistent with upper-level ridging beginning to
breakdown across the central CONUS and becoming more zonal before
transitioning back into what looks to be more of an active
pattern, opposed to the persistent ridging as of late. With a
number of shortwaves progged to move through the area (one this
weekend and another early next week) the best chances for
measurable precipitation looks to be possible early/mid next week.
Otherwise temperatures are expected to be a bit more seasonal,
albeit still above normal, through the beginning of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Main concern will be increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms late this evening and overnight as cold front and
upper level impulse moves across the area. Low level moisture will
probably be sufficient for a transient band of MVFR ceilings in the
vicinity of front, generally around daybreak across South Central
KS.  Will go with VCTS for Central KS after 02-03z and after 04-05z
for South Central KS.



Wichita-KICT    63  79  51  78 /  50  20   0   0
Hutchinson      61  78  49  79 /  50  10   0   0
Newton          61  76  51  76 /  60  20   0   0
ElDorado        63  77  51  77 /  50  30   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   63  78  52  78 /  50  40   0   0
Russell         55  77  48  80 /  30   0   0   0
Great Bend      55  78  48  80 /  30   0   0   0
Salina          62  77  48  78 /  50  10   0   0
McPherson       61  77  48  78 /  60  10   0   0
Coffeyville     63  76  52  77 /  50  50   0   0
Chanute         63  76  51  75 /  60  50   0   0
Iola            63  75  50  74 /  60  50   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    63  76  51  76 /  50  50   0   0




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