Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 282009
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
309 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Upper low is sinking south out of the Great Lakes region and into
the Ohio Valley while upper ridging is strengthening over the
Rockies. At the surface, a cold front extends from western KS
into northern AR, with another shot of cooler air moving over the
area. This will provide some of the coolest air of the season so
far with highs on Thu struggling to reach 70 degrees across most
of the forecast area. Normal highs for this time of year are in
the mid to upper 70s.

The upper low is expected to churn over the Ohio/Tennessee Valley
through Fri while additional shortwave energy comes onshore over
the Pacific NW. A slow warming trend will commence as we head
into the weekend with a return to more seasonal temps. Small rain
chances will show back up in the forecast starting Sat night
across central KS as mid level theta-e advection increases.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

There is decent model agreement that by Mon morning a robust
shortwave trough will be digging over the Great Basin and will
lift out across the northern/central Rockies by Tue morning. While
periodic small rain chances will continue after Sat night, it
looks like the better rain chances arrive Tue through Wed as the
upper impulse starts to directly impact the forecast area. In
addition, a cold front will also pass through during the Tue
through Wed time frame which will increase rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

A fairly strong surface high will continue to build into the upper
Midwest/Corn Belt through tonight into midday Thursday.
North-northeasterly winds will gust to 20-23 knots at times this
afternoon, before winds decouple toward early this evening.
Northeasterly boundary layer winds may advect higher relative
humidity air into eastern Kansas late tonight into Thursday
morning, possibly resulting in scattered to perhaps broken MVFR
decks. Not confident enough for more than scattered 1500 ft agl
decks at this juncture.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    75  47  69  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      74  45  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          73  45  68  48 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        74  47  68  48 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   77  47  69  48 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         74  43  68  46 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      75  44  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          73  45  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       73  45  68  46 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     76  47  71  48 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         73  47  69  49 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            71  47  69  49 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    74  47  70  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...JMC



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