Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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267
FXUS63 KICT 192008
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
308 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE UT AREA WITH THE MAIN
VORT LOBE LIFTING OVER NORTHERN CO WITH ANOTHER LEAD PIECE OF
ENERGY MOVING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...WARM FRONT STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN AR INTO NORTH CENTRAL
OK AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THE LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/ISO STORMS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA IS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG 850-700
THETA-E ADVECTION JUST AHEAD OF THE LEAD IMPULSE LIFTING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS AREA OF PRECIP IS MOVING SLIGHTLY FASTER
THAN 12Z MODELS INDICATED AND BY AROUND 06Z JUST SOME DRIZZLE CAN
BE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 0.50-1.00" RANGE WHICH SHOULD NOT
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WITH JUST SOME TYPICAL FLOOD PRONE
AREAS EXPERIENCING SOME MINOR FLOODING. THE EXCEPTION MAYBE SE KS
AS SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE ACTIVITY OVER NORTH CENTRAL OK
CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST THIS EVENING.

BY WED MORNING THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS DOWNGLIDE SETS IN OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL KS. THE COOL
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WED WITH THE FRONT CONTINUING TO
STRETCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS THEY TOP OUT IN THE 60S. WOULDN`T BE
SHOCKED TO SEE A FEW SITES OVER CENTRAL KS DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S
WED NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH TRACKS OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THUR AS OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT THE
REGION COMES ON SHORE OVER SOUTHERN CA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES.

BY FRI MORNING THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE DESERT SW AND WITH
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREEING ON A PIECE OF ENERGY LIFTING OUT
OF SOUTHERN NM AND ACROSS THE AREA BY FRI AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE
WILL RAMP UP RAIN CHANCES. THE GULF WILL REMAIN OPEN FOR FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SAT NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO STREAM NORTH. THERE REALLY ISN`T GOING TO BE A SURFACE FRONT
TO FOCUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THIS WEEKEND. SO THE BETTER RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING AS THE BETTER
UPPER JET SLOWLY APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS BETTER FORCING/UPPER
DIFFLUENCE LOOKS TO START AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA SAT AND
ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN. BY MON THE MAJORITY OF THE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL HAVE PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE REGIONAL TAF
SITES. AS THE RAINFALL APPROACHES...CEILINGS WILL DROP TO 1500
FEET INITIALLY...THEN DOWN TO 800 FEET OVERNIGHT. VSBYS WILL BE
3SM IN RAIN. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
MORNING.

AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING
BETWEEN 8Z AND 12Z. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AND THE RAINFALL
WILL END. THAT SAID...CIGS WILL REMAIN DOWN TO 700 FEET.

KRC


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    51  64  46  66 /  90  30  10  10
HUTCHINSON      48  63  42  66 /  90  30  10  10
NEWTON          46  61  44  64 /  90  40  10  10
ELDORADO        50  63  46  65 /  90  40  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   52  67  47  67 /  90  30  10  10
RUSSELL         42  59  40  64 / 100  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      43  59  41  64 /  90  10  10  10
SALINA          48  61  42  66 /  90  30  10  10
MCPHERSON       47  61  43  65 /  90  30  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     58  68  48  65 / 100  60  10  10
CHANUTE         55  64  47  64 / 100  70  10  10
IOLA            54  63  47  64 / 100  70  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    57  67  45  64 / 100  60  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ051>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$



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