Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 202356
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
556 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

PERSISTENT MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH DIURNAL COOLING
SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL BE
GENERALLY WEST OF HUTCHINSON-SALINA...WHERE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION
SHOULD BE STRONGEST...ALTHOUGH PATCHY INTERMITTENT DENSE FOG
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT DUE TO
AREAS OF STRATUS BUILD-DOWN. DEEPER MOISTURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
SOUTH MAY ALLOW FOR AREAS OF DRIZZLE BY SUNDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY
PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...GENERALLY EAST OF HUTCHINSON-
SALINA. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S
SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY ALLOW
FOR A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH CHANCES INCREASING OVER FAR
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KS MONDAY...AS ZONE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS MATERIALIZES AND SWEEPS SOUTHEAST. MOSTLY LIGHT
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH FAR SOUTHEAST KS COULD PICK UP
AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH LATE MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS...MONDAY HIGHS SHOULD WARM TO AT LEAST THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S. A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL ALLOW
A STRONG COLD FRONT TO SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND TUESDAY HIGHS IN THE 30S TO
LOW 40S ARE EXPECTED.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

GFS IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE ECMWF WITH
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS MID-WEEK TROUGH...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
COLDER WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES THAN ECMWF. ENSEMBLES SUPPORT BOTH
SOLUTIONS...SO FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE. RAPID WARM-UP
INTO THE 40S AND 50S EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES.
THEREAFTER...ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...RESULTING IN BLUSTERY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS BY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT DUE TO MEAGER FORCING AND MOISTURE. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 548 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS UPPER
ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MVFR CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ON THE
INCREASE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS THE LAST FEW HOURS AND AM EXPECTING
THIS AREA OF MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND EAST TONIGHT. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN SOME FOG IS HIGH TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE 2-4SM
RANGE...CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG IS NOT THAT HIGH. AT THIS POINT
FEEL THE BEST SHOT AT LESS THAN 2SM WILL BE WEST OF I-135. SHOULD
START TO SEE SOME IFR CEILINGS AFTER 10Z AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY ADVECT INTO THE REGION. WOULD EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO
PERSIST INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND EAST OF I-135.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    37  46  41  52 /  10  10  10  20
HUTCHINSON      35  46  40  51 /  10  10  20  10
NEWTON          36  45  41  51 /  10  10  20  20
ELDORADO        36  46  41  51 /  10  10  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   37  47  42  51 /  10  10  10  20
RUSSELL         32  46  36  51 /   0   0  20  10
GREAT BEND      32  46  36  51 /  10  10  20  10
SALINA          35  46  39  52 /  10  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       35  45  39  51 /  10  10  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     37  49  43  53 /  10  10  10  40
CHANUTE         35  47  42  52 /  10  10  20  40
IOLA            35  47  42  51 /  10  10  20  40
PARSONS-KPPF    36  48  42  52 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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