Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 060527
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1127 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY AS A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A VERY MINOR NORTHWEST
FLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA IN TO IOWA
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY, BUT THIS WILL DO NOTHING MORE THAN
PROVIDE A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AT THE MOST. AS A MATTER OF FACT,
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ALTER THE MSLP PATTERN SUCH THAT WE WILL SEE
INCREASED WESTERLY LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE MOMENTUM, LEADING TO MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY. WE FOLLOWED THE WRF-ARW FORECAST FOR
TEMPERATURES AS IT HAS PERFORMED MUCH BETTER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN KANSAS IN WESTERLY FLOW REGIMES OF LATE. WE SHOULD SEE A
CORRIDOR OF MID 60S SPREAD IN TO CENTRAL KANSAS INCLUDING GREAT BEND
AND HUTCH.

NWSDDC/UMSCHEID

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE PERIOD SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS VERY
TRANQUIL AND QUITE MILD. THE GENERAL TREND OF WARMING TEMPERATURES
IN THE GRIDS CONTINUES...WITH UPPER MID 60S TO LOWER 70S LITTERING
THE MAXT GRIDS TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD (MID NEXT
WEEK). UNTIL THEN, TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH A MINOR NORTHWEST FLOW DISTURBANCE OR
TWO RIPPLING THROUGH THE NONDESCRIPT LONGWAVE PATTERN DEVOID OF MUCH
MOMENTUM. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GENERALLY WEAK MSLP FIELD AND
RESULTANT LIGHT WINDS. NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH DAY
7, ALTHOUGH THE LATEST ECMWF DOES SUGGEST A MINOR SOUTHERN STREAM
PERTURBATION CLIPPING FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY, BUT FOR NOW THE FORECAST IS DRY.

NWSDDC/UMSCHEID

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO PREVAIL
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE.
AFTER THE UPPER WAVE PASSES...THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE WIND FIELD
WILL ADJUST...WITH MORE WESTERLY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE COME MORE SOUTHERLY AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY
EVENING.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    24  60  28  60 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      25  63  28  60 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          24  61  29  60 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        24  57  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   24  56  27  60 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         26  63  30  64 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      26  64  28  63 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          26  64  30  64 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       24  63  29  61 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     24  52  27  58 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         24  53  27  57 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            24  53  27  57 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    24  52  26  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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