Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KICT 122021
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
321 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

A MID/UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SPRAWL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL CONUS WHILE A VIGOROUS TROUGH WAS DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER
MANITOBA AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL SERVE TO
DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER
MORE ROBUST COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE WAKE OF A MORE
VIGOROUS TROUGH MOVING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
AREA ON MONDAY KEEPING HIGHS 15+ DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUE-WED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WAS MEANDERING ALONG A LINE FROM NORTHWEST
KANSAS INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO SAG SOUTHWARD TONIGHT POSSIBLY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED WITH
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST EXTENT AS THE CAP INCREASES AND THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
DECREASES. A STRONG STORM OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

STORMS MAY REDEVELOP AFTER 17-19Z...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS THE CAP DIMINISHES ALONG THE FRONT.
ONCE AGAIN...AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. THE FOCUS IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER MAINTAINED LOW
POPS WEIGHTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS.

ANOTHER MORE POTENT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
BUT DUE TO A SLOW ARRIVAL TEMPERATURES MAY RISE TO AROUND 90 PRIOR
TO FROPA. SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO MONDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS BEFORE DRIER
AND MUCH COOLER AIR ADVECTED ACROSS THE AREA.

TUE-WED...AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO CLIMB MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MID JULY. MAINTAINED LOW POPS
WEIGHTED IN THE WESTERN ZONES LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES IN
NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW. IT STILL APPEARS THE FOCUS FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT SOME ACTIVITY
MAY DRIFT INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BEFORE DISSIPATING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

RISING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING THICKNESS WILL SUPPORT RISING
TEMPERATURES AS WE MOVE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS BY
SATURDAY WILL BEGIN TO FEEL MORE LIKE JUNE WITH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 AND MINIMUMS NEAR 70. MAINTAINED LOW POPS ON
SATURDAY BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE ONLY CONCERN
WILL BE A CHANCE OF LATE EVENING CONVECTION OVER NW KS VENTURING
EAST-SOUTHEAST...POSSIBLY AFFECTING CENTRAL KS LATE THIS EVENING.
THINK A CHANCE EXISTS OF THIS CONVECTION GETTING INTO THE KRSL/KSLN
TAF SITES...SO WILL GO WITH A VCTS FOR NOW. CONFIDENCE ISN`T HIGH
ENOUGH TO GO WITH A TEMPO GROUP JUST YET.

THIS CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
ON SUN. AS THIS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH...EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE N-NW
INITIALLY FOR KRSL/KSLN BY AROUND 06-09Z AND BY 12-14Z FOR KHUT AND
KICT.

ALSO...DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE CONVECTIVE
CHANCES IN CENTRAL KS WILL GET.  AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY LAGS WELL
BEHIND THE FRONT. SO WILL NOT INCLUDE A VCTS MENTION FURTHER SOUTH
FOR THE KICT/KHUT OR KCNU TAF.

KETCHAM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    72  89  70  89 /  20  30  20  30
HUTCHINSON      72  87  69  90 /  20  20  20  30
NEWTON          71  87  68  89 /  20  30  20  30
ELDORADO        70  89  68  88 /  10  30  20  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   71  93  69  90 /  10  20  20  30
RUSSELL         70  87  68  87 /  40  20  20  30
GREAT BEND      70  86  67  89 /  30  20  20  30
SALINA          72  89  70  90 /  30  20  20  30
MCPHERSON       71  87  69  90 /  20  20  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     71  95  71  88 /   0  30  30  30
CHANUTE         72  90  69  88 /  10  30  20  30
IOLA            72  89  69  88 /  10  30  20  30
PARSONS-KPPF    71  92  70  88 /   0  30  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.