Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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326
FXUS63 KICT 180900
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
300 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

Much warmer weather will spread across KS the rest of the week as
the weakened surface high which, no doubt, was a major player in
the Arctic invasion that occurred early this week, continues to
weaken as it creeps toward the Gulf Coast today & tonight. The
surface high will operate in tandem with a gradually strengthening
surface trof from Eastern CO to Eastern NM to enable warm
advection to increase. A broad, positively-tilted mid-upper trof,
which extends from a compact mid-upper shortwave moving SE toward,
then across, the Great Lakes, would push the weakening wave slowly
SE over the Southern Plains today & tonight leaving a broadening,
but weakening upper ridge in its wake. A much stronger upper-deck
wave, which is approaching the West Coast early this morning, will
continue to dig as it crosses Southern CA late Fri night & the
Desert Southwest Sat night. This would enable the Western Plains
surface trof to continue strengthening, eventually undergoing
rapid cyclogenesis as it slowly crosses the CO/KS border late Sat
night, further enhancing the warming trend across most of KS Sat &
Sat night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

Sunday & Sunday Night:
As the overall pattern continues to evolve, lower-deck moisture
would spread N/NE across KS. The strengthening surface cyclone
will enable an E-W oriented warm front, that`ll develop across KS
late Sat night, to surge N/NE while a fairly strong cold front
pushes SE toward Central KS Sun morning. As the cold front
approaches, the next chance for precipitation is still expected to
arrive Sunday morning, especially across Northern KS. A
transition from light rain to a wintry mix of light rain & light
snow, should arrive Sunday morning & continue into Sunday night by
which time light snow will be the primary precipitation mode
across Central KS. The progressive pattern should keep amounts in
check.

Next Week:
This next cold front won`t be nearly as strong, so although there
will certainly be cooler weather temperatures would be tolerable.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1107 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

Little change to the previous forecast with VFR conditions
expected to prevail thru Thursday evening. Light to moderate
south to southwest winds expected with generally clear skies.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    46  23  53  34 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      47  22  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          43  24  50  32 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        43  24  51  35 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   46  24  53  36 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         51  22  59  25 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      51  22  60  26 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          46  23  53  29 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       45  23  52  30 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     43  25  50  38 /   0   0   0  10
Chanute         41  23  48  36 /   0   0   0  10
Iola            40  23  48  36 /   0   0   0  10
Parsons-KPPF    42  24  49  37 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...KED



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