Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KICT 270451
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1151 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

A MID/UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE ROCKIES WHILE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LIFTING OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALLOWED UPPER
60 AND LOWER 70 DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS DRIVING HEAT INDICES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S.

THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO WILL
DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS HOWEVER THE COLUMN ABOVE THE PBL IS PROGGED
TO REMAIN QUITE DRY/WARM AND A MEAGER LLJ AND RELATIVELY WEAK-
SHALLOW ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THE
CINH. ANY ACTIVITY THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP MAY LINGER INTO THE
MORNING HOURS ON THU ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS BEFORE THE FOCUS SHIFTS
WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE OVER
THE ROCKIES EMERGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON THURSDAY.
THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE FROPA ACROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY-FRIDAY WHICH WILL LIKELY HAVE IMPACTS ON POPS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS ON FRIDAY. A SLOWER SOLUTION MAY RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THU NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KS WHILE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION MAY LINGER/REDEVELOP ALONG
THE DIFFUSE FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MAINTAINED THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...HOWEVER IF THE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER POPS
MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS.

A DRY POST-FRONTAL REGIME IS ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

AN ELONGATED MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD SPRAWLING FROM THE SOUTHWEST STATES NORTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AREA. MEANWHILE A STATIONARY OR SLOWLY RETROGRADING MID/UPPER LOW
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST WITH NEAR
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT VISIBILITY COULD DROP
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MVFR CRITERIA. THE TWO TERMINALS
THAT ARE MOST CONCERNING FOR THIS OCCURRING ARE KCNU AND KHUT.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PREVALENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
EVENING AND THE MICRO-CLIMATE AT KHUT COULD CAUSE A REDUCTION IN
VISIBILITIES BY MORNING. THE OTHER LOCATION KCNU WILL HAVE THE
LIGHTEST WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND CLEAREST
SKIES...THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD
CAUSE A REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES.

WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS LEE TROUGHING DEEPENS. THE
FRONT WILL STILL BE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THIS
FORECAST...BUT SOME PRECIPITATION MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KRSL
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTER 00Z.

OTHERWISE...KCNU MAY ALSO SEE THUNDERSTORMS BY MORNING...HAVE
INCLUDED A VCTS FOR THE POTENTIAL...THE AXIS LOOKS TO HAVE SHIFTED
A BIT FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS
THIS AREA HIGHLIGHTED FOR PRECIPITATION BY 12Z THURSDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  91  70  85 /  10  10  20  20
HUTCHINSON      69  92  68  85 /  10  20  30  20
NEWTON          66  90  68  84 /  10  20  30  20
ELDORADO        67  90  67  84 /  20  20  20  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  92  70  87 /  10  10  20  30
RUSSELL         70  94  65  86 /  10  30  70  10
GREAT BEND      70  95  65  86 /  10  30  60  10
SALINA          69  92  68  86 /  20  20  40  20
MCPHERSON       69  91  68  85 /  10  20  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     63  88  67  85 /  20  10  20  40
CHANUTE         63  87  66  83 /  30  20  20  40
IOLA            62  86  66  83 /  30  30  20  40
PARSONS-KPPF    63  87  67  84 /  20  20  20  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.