Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 131141
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
541 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

...Updated for Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 315 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

Surface high is currently situated over eastern MO/western IL
with an upper shortwave approaching the central Appalachians.

Dense fog has developed across part of central KS as low level
moisture has started to roll back to the northwest. It is
occurring on the northwest fringes of the low clouds. As the
surface high continues to shift east, return flow will increase
allowing low level moisture to continue to increase. It appears we
are going to get another round of widespread drizzle starting
late this afternoon and really pick up this evening as isentropic
lift just off of the surface quickly increases. Locations along
and east of the KS Turnpike will have the best chance to see
drizzle which will continue into at least Tue morning.

There is decent model agreement that shortwave energy will slide
across the northern Plains Tue evening. As this occurs, moisture
transport in the 850-700mb level will increase which may result in
a few rumbles of thunder across se KS Tue night. A weak cold
front will push through Wed, but the drier air will be short-
lived.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

Surface high will once again shift east on Thu allowing the area
to quickly get back into moist return flow. Low level isentropic
upglide will once again quickly increase Thu afternoon into Thu
evening with yet another round of drizzle possible across eastern
KS. A more robust piece of energy is forecast to swing across the
northern/central Plains Fri into Fri evening. GFS moves this
feature through faster than the ECMWF and thus pushes the cold
front through quicker. Whichever model verifies, confidence is
high that by Fri night, the front will be through and drier cooler
air will be spilling south. This should also be the start of
several days without the drizzle and fog that has been around the
last week. The airmass behind the front will not be drastically
colder, with highs for the weekend still expected to be in the
50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 541 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

Widespread IFR to MVFR conditions will prevail across the region
today, as low-level moisture and lift increase from the south.
Areas of drizzle will increase from the south as well this
afternoon, mainly along/east of HUT-SLN. Conditions could go LIFR
tonight, especially along/west of generally I-135. For now held
onto IFR, but will continue to monitor.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    52  50  63  49 /  30  40  20  40
Hutchinson      52  48  63  45 /  20  20  10  20
Newton          52  48  62  47 /  20  30  20  40
ElDorado        52  50  62  50 /  30  50  20  60
Winfield-KWLD   52  51  63  52 /  40  50  20  40
Russell         55  45  63  39 /  10  10  10   0
Great Bend      54  45  64  41 /  10  10  10  10
Salina          53  48  63  43 /  10  10  10  20
McPherson       52  48  63  44 /  20  20  10  20
Coffeyville     55  49  60  53 /  20  50  30  70
Chanute         54  47  58  51 /  10  50  30  80
Iola            53  47  58  51 /  10  40  30  80
Parsons-KPPF    55  48  59  52 /  10  50  30  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for KSZ032-033-
047>051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...ADK



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