Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 010536
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1136 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WIDESPREAD SNOW RETURNS CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN KS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IN AREA OF BROAD AND DEEP ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. SEVERAL
BANDS OF MODERATE-HEAVY SNOWFALL PERSIST OVER SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THE BRUNT
OF THIS MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH ABOUT 00Z
BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN SOUTHEAST KS THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...AS AN UPPER JET STREAK INTENSIFIES FROM NEBRASKA
INTO IOWA. CONFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPS AT 700 MB IN RESPONSE TO THE
RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THIS UPPER JET. THIS MAY SUPPORT A NARROW BAND OF
MODERATE-HEAVY SNOWFALL. BASED ON THE NAM-WRF...THIS BAND MAY SET UP
IN A ROUGHLY 50 MILE WIDE CORRIDOR FROM A HUTCHINSON TO EMPORIA
LINE. SINCE THIS WOULD BE A MESOSCALE BAND...THE PLACEMENT COULD BE
OFF SOME THIS FAR OUT. NEVERTHELESS...THINKING A QUICK 1-3 INCHES
COULD OCCUR IN THAT BAND BEFORE IT SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY MIDDAY. FURTHER SOUTH...WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AM...WITH CLOUD ICE
ALOFT IN QUESTION. PLANS FOR NOW ARE TO CONTINUE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY THRU 18Z SUNDAY WITH OVERALL STORM TOTALS IN THE
3 TO 6 INCH RANGE IN THE SOUTH...AND 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE IN CENTRAL
KANSAS TOWARD I-70. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH DRY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS FROM WESTERN CANADA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. LEE TROUGHING WILL
OCCUR MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE
LOW-LEVELS ALLOWING MOISTURE RETURN AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES
NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A CHANCE OF
DRIZZLE MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY RAIN CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY CREEPS UP INTO SOUTHEAST KS LATER MON NIGHT
INTO TUES AM...AND WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE. THE
ARCTIC FRONT WILL BLAST SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAYTIME TUESDAY...WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES LIKELY BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN INFILTRATE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH WIND CHILL
READINGS FALLING TO ZERO TO MINUS 5 IN CENTRAL KS LATE TUES
NIGHT/EARLY WED AM. WITH MUCH OF THE DEEP MOISTURE GETTING SHUNTED
EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGHING FROM EASTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD...WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT MUCH COLDER THAN
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO
CLOSER TO CLIMO BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THIS JUNCTURE...MOST IF
NOT ALL...OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS DRY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS OVERNIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY
ON SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF A LIGHT WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER JET STREAK INDUCES TRANSIENT LIFT
ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW IS PRIMARILY EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER SOUTHERN
KANSAS.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH MONDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD SNOWCOVER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND COLDER THAN SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    19  32  21  37 /  70  70  10  20
HUTCHINSON      19  32  20  36 /  70  70  10  20
NEWTON          19  32  19  37 /  70  80  10  20
ELDORADO        19  32  21  37 /  70  70  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   20  32  22  38 /  60  60  10  20
RUSSELL         16  34  18  38 /  50  50  10  20
GREAT BEND      18  33  19  37 /  60  70  10  20
SALINA          18  33  20  37 /  60  70  10  20
MCPHERSON       19  33  19  37 /  70  70  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     23  33  24  39 /  90  60  10  20
CHANUTE         20  32  22  38 /  80  80  10  20
IOLA            20  32  21  39 /  80  80  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    21  33  23  38 /  90  70  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$



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