Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 231150
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
650 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Main surface ridge axis looks to move across the forecast area
today. Expect a pleasant weather day today with light winds and
moderating seasonal temps.

Zonal mid level flow pattern will lead to dry, warm and breezy
conditions for Monday as the pressure gradient increases across the
area, with the lee trough over wrn KS slowly moving into Central KS.

Low level moisture will be slow to return, with a weak shortwave
moving across the northern plains, leading to a cold front sagging
south across the area for Tue. Not expecting alot of shower activity
along the front as it pushes south, as better moisture is slow to
return, with finally enough convergence and enough moisture/
instability for a thunderstorm chance in SE KS by Tue evening. Shear
and instability even suggests a few strong storms may be possible
over SE KS for Tue eve.

Low level moisture does finally begin to overrun the front by Tue
night, as a wave moves along the southward pushing front with the
GFS and ECMWF suggesting a post frontal overrunning shower chance
for most locations as the front pushes into OK.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

The progressive zonal flow pattern will gradually shift to more of a
W-SW flow pattern by the middle of the week, which will lead to
thunderstorm chances increasing by the end of the week. Lots of
timing issues for the end of the week, as latest GEFS ensemble runs
suggests deepening of the SW US trough will be slower than
previously thought, which would suggest a lull in the showers
chances for Wed and the better moisture transport and isentropic
lift delayed until Thu night and early Friday.

As the flow becomes more southwesterly, the unsettled weather
pattern will continue for the Thu night into the weekend. Previously
advertised high end severe weather threat for Thu now looks to be
delayed until Fri evening and possibly even Sat, with confidence in
the timing of this system very low. Certainly looks wet for the end
of the week into the beginning of the weekend.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 650 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

There are no concerns until late tngt (06-09Z) when a Sly LLJ hits
the accelerator acrs Cntrl & SC KS. Speeds just 1,500ft AGL wl hit
39-43kts/45-50mph at all Cntrl & SC KS terminals. Hence a "WS015"
assignment to all xcpt KCNU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    70  46  74  55 /   0   0   0  10
Hutchinson      70  47  75  54 /   0   0   0  10
Newton          68  46  73  54 /   0   0   0  10
ElDorado        69  46  73  55 /   0   0   0  10
Winfield-KWLD   70  45  74  56 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         72  50  81  52 /   0   0   0  10
Great Bend      71  49  80  52 /   0   0   0  10
Salina          71  49  77  55 /   0   0  10  20
McPherson       70  47  74  53 /   0   0   0  10
Coffeyville     70  43  73  55 /   0   0   0  10
Chanute         70  43  72  55 /   0   0   0  10
Iola            70  43  72  54 /   0   0   0  10
Parsons-KPPF    70  43  73  55 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...EPS



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