Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 121736
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1236 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

Quiet morning across the plains, as just some cloud debris moving
east from last nights high plains convection. Moisture transport has
led to some showers and thunderstorms across NW KS and the panhandle
of OK.  Expect the wrn KS moisture transport to keep the NW KS
showers and storms going as they make slow progress towards central
KS. Not expecting this convection to actually make it into central
KS as it slowly outruns the instability that will remain over wrn
KS.

Cool surface ridge over the Great Lakes will lead to a another cool
below normal temp day with most of the daytime hours remaining dry.

Axis of instability will be located across wrn KS for the afternoon
hours, which will lead to afternoon showers and thunderstorm chances
increasing for areas over western and NW KS late this afternoon.
Some of this convection may make its way into areas west of I-135 by
late this evening, so will leave a chance pop in for this chance.
Some of the model solutions suggest some sort of complex of storms
may drop SE out of NW KS towards central KS, but think this will
diminish as it shifts SE into central KS.

Progressive zonal flow pattern looks to remain unsettled through the
end of the weekend into the beginning of next week. This will lead
to low level moisture slowly returning across the area as the next
impulse in the westerly flow makes its way across the area late Sun
night or early Mon. This will lead to increasing chances of showers
and storms late sun night into early Mon.

Even with the storm chances continuing for the beginning of the
week, expect to see a warming trend toward the middle of the work
week.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

Pattern looks to remain unsettled through at least the middle of the
week before upper ridging starts to strengthen over the southern
Plains. This will push the better moisture transport and storm
chances further north. So at this time feel the better precip
chances will be through Wed night, before we enter a less
progressive pattern. Should also see a return to more seasonal temps
by the end of the work week with highs climbing back into the low
90s.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at all locations except for KGBD
during the early portion of this forecast as a low deck has
advected into this region. Models haven`t handled it well, so we
will monitor for possible migration to KRSL and KHUT. Enough lift
is present to produce some light rain showers across the southern
half of the state. It is possible the precipitation will help lower
cigs at KICT, KCNU, KRSL, and KHUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    80  65  82  68 /  30  10  10  30
Hutchinson      79  63  82  66 /  30  10  10  30
Newton          78  62  80  66 /  20  10  10  30
ElDorado        79  63  80  66 /  30  10  10  20
Winfield-KWLD   80  65  82  68 /  40  20  20  30
Russell         81  62  83  65 /  30  10  10  30
Great Bend      80  63  82  66 /  30  10  10  30
Salina          82  62  84  67 /  10  10  10  30
McPherson       80  62  82  66 /  20  10  10  30
Coffeyville     82  66  80  67 /  40  30  30  20
Chanute         81  64  80  66 /  20  10  20  20
Iola            81  64  80  65 /  10  10  20  20
Parsons-KPPF    82  66  80  67 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...CWH



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