Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 230439
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1139 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 755 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Updated to tweak pops down a bit for tonight.

Confidence is decreasing on how much activity we will see along
the front in our forecast area. Feel that the development of
storms out west were aided by upslope processes, given they
developed even with decent capping. Feel our best chance for
storms tonight will be if this activity can make it into the
western fringes of our forecast area. Given how the storms out
near KDDC are behaving, confidence is low if they will be able to
hold together as they track east.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Low level moisture and an unstable airmass will again
be located across northern KS and srn Nebraska this afternoon. To
the south of the moisture a warm elevated mixed layer remains across
much of Central KS. Expect a vigorous cold front currently located
across central Nebraska to continue to push south late this
afternoon into this evening. With the strong cap in place south of
the front, think shower and thunderstorm chances in central KS will
be delayed until convergence associated with the cold front pushes
into central KS after 00z and possibly as late as 02z.

As the front pushes in, convergence and mid level lift is expected
to lead to a more widespread showers/thunderstorm chance for late
this evening, as the front makes steady progress south across
central KS into south central KS. Could see a little more widespread
strong/severe weather chance for late this evening, as the GFS shows
higher bulk shear values around 40 kts and Mlcape values of 1500-
2000 j/kg.

Could see some the showers and thunderstorms linger well into Fri
morning, as the front pushes into south central and southeast KS.

Will also have to keep an eye on remnant moisture from TS Cindy
lifting north, possibly into SE KS late tonight.  Increased moisture
and instability may lead to more efficient showers and storms in SE
KS.

Fri-Fri night: A little more uncertainty on how the rest of Fri will
play out, but think the cold front will push into OK during the
morning hours on Fri. Models suggest post frontal showers will
linger across most of srn KS for a good portion of the day on Fri as
the mid level baroclinic zone lingers across the area. Canadian high
pressure will begin to build into the plains, as the front pushes
south, so expect a cloudy cool day for Fri.

Sat-Mon: Cooler drier air looks to push into the area for the
weekend, with the cold front pushing well south of the area. If the
ECMWF plays out, the cold front may push all the way into the Gulf
coast states. Canadian high pressure looks to build into the plains,
with cooler and drier air pushing south across the forecast area.
This will lead to min temps dropping into the middle 50s with max
temps on Sun in the upper 70s.  Some uncertainty on how Sat and Sun
will play out, as the both the GFS and ECMWF both suggest some mid
level moisture will try to sneak back into wrn KS, which may lead to
a chance for off-and-on morning showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms by late Sat or early Sun. Could even see some storms
come off the high plains in the upslope flow regime. Consensus pops
seem a little overdone, as mid level moisture return may not be as
fast as the models suggest.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Thursday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

The warming trend and south winds will return by Tuesday, as the
broad Great Lakes trough starts moving east. High temperatures by
Wed-Thu should be in the upper 80s to 90s most areas, along with
increasing dewpoints/humidity and stout/gusty south winds.
Additionally, the overall pattern advertised by the medium range
model consensus should support periodic thunderstorm chances
somewhere across the region Tuesday evening through at least
Friday night, mainly during the evening- nighttime hours. Exact
placement and timing of these various thunderstorm chances remains
highly uncertain this far out.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Aviation concern will be storms over the next few hours.

Storms that developed out over western KS continue to attempt to
push east with one last cluster now getting into Russell and
Barton counties. While there is an occasional flare up, the
overall trend has been for this activity to be on the decrease as
they continue east. The short range models that are picking up on
this convection, continue to weaken them as they track southeast.
So feel that KRSL-KGBD and KSLN will have the best chance to see
thunder, generally between 06z-09z. Did throw some VCTS in at
KICT-KHUT but confidence in this panning out is much lower than
over central KS. Even though ceilings will lower behind the front
as cooler air spills-in, confidence is high they will stay above
IFR levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    70  83  59  83 /  20  30  10   0
Hutchinson      68  81  57  82 /  30  30   0   0
Newton          68  81  58  81 /  30  30   0   0
ElDorado        68  81  57  81 /  20  30   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   70  83  59  82 /  20  30  10   0
Russell         64  80  55  81 /  60  30   0  10
Great Bend      65  80  56  81 /  60  40   0  10
Salina          67  82  57  83 /  50  30   0  10
McPherson       67  81  56  82 /  30  30   0   0
Coffeyville     70  84  58  82 /  10  30  10   0
Chanute         70  82  57  81 /  20  30   0   0
Iola            70  82  57  81 /  30  30   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    71  83  59  82 /  20  30   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RBL
SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...RBL


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