Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 200433
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1133 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

...Updated for Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Could see some fog develop towards daybreak/early morning ahead
of the slow moving front where light winds and dewpoint gradient
will reside. A weak frontal boundary will sink slowly southward
across Kansas on Monday, however very warm temperatures will still
prevail with the colder air lagging behind and further north.

Meanwhile cooler temperatures will spread southward across the
central plains on Tuesday into Wednesday, as core of strong polar
high pressure slides southward into the Great Lakes region. Rain
chances do not look favorable this period with only light rain
possible for a few locations.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Confidence remains high with a more favorable precipitation signal
on Thursday-Friday for Kansas, as models continue to show a deeper
upper trough moving across the region. South winds ahead of this
system will increase as the deeper upper level trough approaches
from the west. There is a chance for strong/severe storms and those
chances seem more favorable on Friday afternoon when the deeper gulf
moisture arrives for eastern Kansas. Cooler air will overspread the
region in the wake of this system for Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Fairly quiet VFR conditions expected for most areas tonight
through Monday. However, cannot rule out patchy MVFR visibilities
late tonight into early Monday generally across the southeast
quarter of Kansas. Covered this threat with a few hours of TEMPO
late tonight into early Monday at Hutchinson-Wichita-Chanute.
Otherwise, expect winds to switch to north-northeasterly Monday as
a cold front settles south across Mid-America.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Widespread very high to extreme grassland fire danger will be
possible on Thursday afternoon as south winds increase. Could see
some very high fire danger levels again on Friday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    57  84  53  63 /   0   0   0  10
Hutchinson      53  81  50  58 /   0   0   0  10
Newton          56  82  51  58 /   0   0   0  10
ElDorado        58  84  53  62 /   0   0   0  10
Winfield-KWLD   59  86  55  68 /   0   0   0  10
Russell         49  74  44  52 /   0   0  10  10
Great Bend      49  77  45  54 /   0   0  10  10
Salina          53  76  48  55 /   0   0  10  10
McPherson       54  79  48  56 /   0   0   0  10
Coffeyville     63  88  57  73 /   0   0  10  10
Chanute         61  85  55  65 /   0   0  10  10
Iola            61  85  54  62 /   0   0  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    62  86  56  69 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...ADK
FIRE WEATHER...CDJ



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