Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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247
FXUS63 KICT 291932
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
232 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Ongoing convection over the forecast area early this afternoon has
developed along a boundary associated with a cold pool from the
earlier convection across northern Oklahoma.  Shear from LAPS over
the past several hours ending at 18z shows values around 20 knots at
best, suggesting minimal chances for organized convection right now.
The RAP does not indicate this will change that much this evening.

Strong CAPE ahead of that boundary suggests the main threat is hail,
with some downburst winds also. The only hope for organized storms
is strong low level CAPE, which does exist along that outflow.

Either way, severe storms possible initially with hail and wind
threats (in that order). The weak upper level flow pattern will
eventually head the event toward a flooding event over time.

As the diurnal convection comes to an end this evening, weak
moisture transport is forecast to develop over the High Plains.
Current NWP shows this mainly being relegated to the High Plains,
though predictability has been moderate at best.  Would not be
surprised if scattered storms continue across the remainder of the
forecast area.

Southwesterly 500 mb flow pattern suggests high confidence in an
active pattern through the middle of the week with several rounds of
showers and thunderstorms. High confidence that these will occur
primarily in the afternoon and evening.  Exactly where is very
difficult to pin down any one location.  Suffice it to say, a good
shot that by Wednesday night, nearly everyone will have received
rain again.  This will only agitate flood concerns.

During the early part of the week, the upper level trough will
gradually move east. On Wednesday, it is expected to move through
the region.  This will probably be the day with the most severe
weather given the upper level support/higher deep layer shear.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

The upper level trough is expected to remain quasi-stationary
southeast of the region through the weekend as ridge building occurs
over inter-mountain west. This will enhance the northerly flow
aloft and keep drier air in place across the region. The main
point here is, it should be dry after Wednesday through the
weekend.

NOTE: Should the forecast upper level low that is expected to close
off over the southern U.S. be further north, our chances for drying
out into the weekend decrease significantly.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

VFR expected to be the prevailing flight category at all sites
throughout the period. Scattered thunderstorms appear to be
developing in the vicinity of leading edge of deeper return
moisture. These are most likely to affect KRSL/KSLN and KCNU
during the afternoon. Chances at KICT/KHUT are too low to mention
at this time. Anticipate them to be mainly diurnally driven, so
will nix chances at sunset. May see low clouds develop late
tonight, mainly in the west. Some chance for elevated storms at
KCNU in the predawn to mid morning hours. -howerton


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Most of the storms that will affect the region this week will be
heavy rain producers. A survey of the area suggests there is still
a great deal of high water in areas that previously received rain. Given
the already saturated soils, any heavy rainfall would result in
significant flooding issues for areas with already high water.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    64  82  63  80 /  30  30  30  60
Hutchinson      61  81  62  79 /  30  30  30  60
Newton          62  81  62  79 /  30  30  30  60
ElDorado        63  81  63  79 /  30  30  30  60
Winfield-KWLD   63  81  64  81 /  30  30  30  50
Russell         59  81  60  77 /  50  30  50  50
Great Bend      60  81  61  78 /  40  30  40  60
Salina          62  83  62  79 /  40  30  40  60
McPherson       61  81  62  79 /  30  30  40  60
Coffeyville     62  82  64  81 /  30  30  30  50
Chanute         63  82  63  81 /  30  30  30  60
Iola            63  82  63  80 /  30  30  30  60
Parsons-KPPF    62  82  63  80 /  30  30  30  50

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRC
LONG TERM...KRC
AVIATION...PJH
HYDROLOGY...KRC



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