Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 260949
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
349 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 338 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

Water vapor imagery early this morning indicates a highly
amplified upper pattern across North America. One weak shortwave was
moving east out of the Central Rockies, with an upstream stronger
wave along the California coast, and yet a stronger system moving
southeast approaching the Pacific Northwest. A weak, elongated
surface pressure trough extended southward through the Central
Plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 338 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

A weak shortwave will move eastward across Kansas today, with the
upstream wave along the California coast then moving east across the
Southern Plains tonight. Isentropic lift/moistening in the 290-295K
layer will likely result in areas of virga and possibly a bit of
light precipitation over eastern Kansas if drier low-levels can be
overcome. Regional radars presently show evidence of echoes (virga
and a bit of light snow) over south-central Kansas. Will carry
small probabilities 20-30% of light snow early this morning in the
east, and light rain in the southeast from late morning into
early afternoon. Nearly seasonal temperatures are expected Today-
Tonight, as a weak surface trough stalls over eastern Kansas this
afternoon.

Another weaker impulse ejects northeastward across Kansas/Oklahoma
Monday ahead of the upper trough in the west. This will induce a
progressive area of isentropic lift as the wave moves through,
likely resulting in areas of light rain/drizzle over south-central
and southeastern Kansas. Otherwise an increase in cloud cover
northward is expected Monday, as milder air arrives with higher
boundary layer dewpoints.

The upper trough to the west will move eastward over the Central
Plains late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Very mild air with some
southwesterly downslope component is expected ahead of the
attendant, approaching cold front. The northwestern edge of a
richer influx of Gulf moisture/instability may reach far
southeastern Kansas Tuesday afternoon/night ahead of this
approaching upper trough. As strong mid-level cooling reaches the
surface-850 cold font, this could initiate a few strong storms in
far southeast Kansas Tuesday night, before the activity shifts
east out of the region. Any storms that develop there could pose
a hail/wind threat with very steep mid-level lapse rates,
elevated MUCAPES of 500-1000 j/kg, and very strong cloud-bearing
shear, however the better strong-severe weather signal targets
southern Missouri into eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas (per the Day
3 SPC Outlook), where the greater instability is progged.
Otherwise, a swath of light rain may mix with and change to light
snow Tuesday night in central Kansas before shifting east-
northeast out of the region. The limited duration of snow combined
with marginal surface temperatures should keep any accumulations
modest.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 338 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

Wednesday looks blustery and cooler behind the departing upper
system, with decent unidirectional mixing in the low-mid levels from
the northwest. Otherwise, the GEFS and ECMWF agree that the upper
trough will shift to the east with a more westerly zonal flow
pattern for late in the week. This should allow temperatures to
climb back above seasonal climatology, most noticeably toward
Saturday. The models also continue to suggest no precipitation
potential in this extended period through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1053 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

Altocu and altostratus cigs will continue to develop ahead of a
shortwave upper trof overnight thru Sunday morning. The greatest
impact will be across southeast Kansas and the KCNU terminal on
Sunday where scattered very light precip, snow to rain, is
expected with cigs lowering to around 5k ft in the afternoon. A
weak front will sag south into central Kansas on Sunday with winds
becoming light with the front becomes non-descript by evening.

KED


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 338 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

Grassland fire danger levels should remain low-moderate today with
light winds and relatively cool temperatures. Moderate-high GFDI
values are progged Monday afternoon, as milder air advects north
into the area, however areas of light rain/drizzle are forecast in
south-central/southeast Kansas. Fire danger levels will be elevated
Tuesday afternoon in south-central/southeast Kansas with above
normal temperatures and some gusty southwesterly flow ahead of a
cold front. Wednesday should feature very high to approaching
extreme grassland fire danger levels area-wide, with northwesterly
winds of 20 to 25 mph and gusts to 40 mph behind a cold front. In
addition, minimum afternoon relative humidity of 20-30% is
forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    54  34  59  44 /  10  10  20  10
Hutchinson      54  31  59  41 /  10  10  10   0
Newton          52  32  58  43 /  10  10  20  10
ElDorado        52  34  59  45 /  20  10  20  10
Winfield-KWLD   54  36  60  46 /  10  10  20  10
Russell         52  26  58  36 /   0   0  10   0
Great Bend      53  27  58  37 /   0   0  10   0
Salina          52  28  59  40 /  10   0  10   0
McPherson       53  29  58  40 /  10   0  10   0
Coffeyville     54  36  63  50 /  30  10  30  10
Chanute         52  33  62  48 /  30  10  30  10
Iola            51  33  62  48 /  30  10  30  10
Parsons-KPPF    53  35  63  49 /  30  10  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...KED
FIRE WEATHER...JMC


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