Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 030440
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1140 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG FRONT IN NEBRASKA WILL HAVE A
SOUTHEASTWARD DRIFT LATE THIS PM/EVE. WITH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
PROGGED TO INCREASE SHARPLY IN THE 00Z-03Z TIMEFRAME THIS
EVE...THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BEFORE REACHING I-70
THIS EVENING. WILL KEEP DRY FORECAST FOR NOW IN CENTRAL KS AND
CONTINUE TO MONITOR...AS COLD POOLS CAN HAVE A TENDENCY TO
SUSTAIN CONVECTION LONGER THAN MODELS MAY INDICATE. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL SUPPORT PERSISTENCE ON TEMPERATURES INTO MONDAY.

UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVERTOP
OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST...AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT
LEAST TWO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES MAY BE EMBEDDED IN THIS UPPER
TROUGH. THE SOUTHERN-MOST SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A DECENT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR
STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY OR END WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE FEATURE. A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD
THROUGH KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES STILL
RATHER WARM...THUNDERSTORM PROSPECTS WILL PROBABLY BE SLIM AT BEST.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THE MEAN UPPER PATTERN FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL FEATURE UPPER
TROUGHING OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH THE EASTERN STATES...UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS...AND UPPER TROUGHING ALONG
THE WEST COAST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE PROGGED TO MOVE FROM THE
WESTERN STATES OVERTOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. ONE SUCH WAVE IS PROGGED TO EJECT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...HELPING TO
REINFORCE A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET FORMATION THURSDAY NIGHT...MAY HELP SUSTAIN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MOVING EAST OFF THE HIGH PLAINS (INITIATED BY
UPSLOPE FLOW)...TO THE NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THEREFORE...A CHANCE OF STORMS LOOKS REASONABLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
PERHAPS FRIDAY MORNING AREA-WIDE. CONVECTIVE CHANCES MAY LESSEN OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH...WITH OUR AREA IN THE WARM
SECTOR BY SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE POTENTIALLY
WARMING UP SIGNIFICANTLY ON SUNDAY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SW FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MON.  WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON MON NIGHT. SOME OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
TRYING TO TAKE A COMPLEX OF STORMS ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER...BUT
THINK THIS WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE KHUT/KICT TAF SITES TOWARDS
06Z/TUE.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    72  95  72  88 /  10  10  30  50
HUTCHINSON      71  95  71  89 /  10  10  40  50
NEWTON          71  94  71  87 /  10  10  30  50
ELDORADO        70  94  71  87 /  10  10  30  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   71  95  72  89 /  10  10  30  50
RUSSELL         70  95  69  88 /  10  10  50  50
GREAT BEND      70  94  69  89 /  10  10  50  50
SALINA          72  96  71  88 /  10  10  30  50
MCPHERSON       71  95  71  88 /  10  10  40  50
COFFEYVILLE     70  94  71  90 /  10  10  10  40
CHANUTE         70  94  69  88 /  10  10  10  40
IOLA            69  94  69  88 /  10  10  10  40
PARSONS-KPPF    69  95  69  89 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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