Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 122003
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
303 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS THROUGH 18Z SHOWS A DEEPENING DISTURBANCE
MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  A SECOND DEEPENING DISTURBANCE IS
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL
BE THE MAIN WEATHER PRODUCERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 18Z SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
WESTERN KANSAS...WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING UP INTO
WESTERN IOWA.  THE DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM KDDC TO EAST OF KHHF...AND
IT APPEARS TO HAVE JUST GONE THROUGH KGAG.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS
INCREASED ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS HAVING RISEN TO AROUND 60
DURING THE 15-17Z TIME FRAME...BUT 18Z DATA SHOWING SOME DRYING OUT FROM
MIXING.

COOK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

THE 17Z RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE LOWER 30 KNOT
RANGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG.
12.15Z RAP FORECAST OF THESE FIELDS SHOWS AN INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS THIS EVENING.  MLCAPE VALUES MAX
OUT AROUND 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING...WITH
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REACHING OVER 25 DEGREES.

AT THIS TIME...NOT THAT EXCITED FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...THERE IS JUST TOO MUCH OF A CAP IN PLACE.  THE 15Z
HRRR DOES PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE
DRYLINE AFTER 00Z...AS DOES THE 12.12Z WRF-NMM.  THIS IS MAINLY EAST
OF HIGHWAY 14 AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 400.  AT THAT TIME...THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.  THIS IS ALSO THE
BEST TIME FOR A TORNADO THREAT GIVEN THAT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL
HAVE COME DOWN BY THEN...JUST NOT SURE THEY WILL HAVE COME DOWN
ENOUGH.  CONFIDENCE IN A TORNADO THREAT IS LOW.

WE ARE LOOKING AT DISCREET SUPERCELLS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL.  BELIEVE THE LARGE HAIL THREAT IS QUITE HIGH GIVEN THAT
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANVIL SEEDING AND THE 0-10KM SHEAR
IS GREATER THAN 90 KNOTS.  THINK THAT BASEBALL HAIL OR LARGER AS A
MAX HAIL SIZE IS POSSIBLE FOR ANY ISOLATED SUPERCELL ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPMENT AREA.  IT WILL BE INTERESTING
TO SEE HOW THIS PANS OUT.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...SLOWLY ADVANCING
TO THE SOUTHEAST.  THIS WILL CREATE A COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MOVE IN AS IT
PASSES.  BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSPORT SUGGESTS WINDS OF 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

BY SUNDAY AT 18Z...THE FRONT WILL BE APPROXIMATELY LOCATED FROM
EMPORIA TO WINFIELD.  THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG
AND EAST OF THE FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS.  MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT...AS
WILL FORCING IN THE MID-LEVELS.  FAVORABLE SHEAR/BUOYANCY
COMBINATIONS...WITH MEAN WIND VECTORS MORE PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY SUGGESTS A RAPID DEVELOP OF STORMS...WITH STORMS BEING
ORGANIZED INTO A LINEAR FASHION.  THEREFORE...THE MAIN THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...WITH LARGE HAIL A SECONDARY
THREAT.

AS SAID EARLIER...AS THE FRONT EXITS...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS MOVE
IN.  TO FURTHER COMPLICATE MATTERS...STRONG COLD ADVECTION MOVES
INTO THE REGION AS WELL.  SUNDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A
PRECIPITATION TYPE PROBLEM AS THE COLD AIR MOVES IN.  SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTS A CHANGE TO SNOW NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 BY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH A MIX FURTHER SOUTH.  ACCUMULATIONS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT.  BUFKIT SOUNDING DATA FROM THE 12Z
GFS SUGGESTS THE WIND COULD LAST INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION...WITH MONDAY NIGHT IN LINE FOR
A REASONABLE FROST/FREEZE SCENARIO.  WITH ALL THE COMPLEX WEATHER
GOING ON AHEAD OF THIS THREAT...WILL LEAVE THIS FOR LATTER SHIFTS TO
CONTEMPLATE.

COOK

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO POSITION...STRETCHING FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY.  THIS
SUGGESTS STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.  THIS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE A DANGEROUS
DAY FOR FIRES.

MOISTURE ADVECTION RETURNS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS THE GULF OPENS.  AT THIS TIME...THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING
RATHER STRONG AND COULD BRING SEVERE WEATHER INTO THE REGION FOR THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SHEAR/BUOYANCY
COMBINATIONS AT THIS TIME.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES INTO THE REGION
THEREAFTER.

COOK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

A BRIEF PERIOD OF MORNING STRATUS AT KICT...KHUT AND KCNU HAS
GIVEN WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. GUST SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE THREAT OF CONVECTION RAMPING UP BETWEEN
23-01 UTC. FORECAST SOUNDING INDICATING DECENT MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW AND FURTHER
MIXING WILL NOT AID THAT SITUATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MESO MODELS
CONTINUE TO HINT THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS WILL FIRE VICINITY
OF KHUT AND KSLN. CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS ACTUALLY WILL FIRE IS
RATHER LOW...BUT WILL MAINTAIN CB AND VCTS FOR THE TIME BEING. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CWA
BETWEEN 03 AND 06 UTC.  COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS BETWEEN 04-O6 UTC...WITH CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS SPREADING INTO
BOTH KRSL AND KSLN BY 12 UTC.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

THE NEXT REAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERN FOR GRASSLAND WILL NOT BE UNTIL
WEDNESDAY. THAT IS WHEN STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS A RESULT OF AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT.

THAT SAID...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF RAINFALL SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY. THIS WITH MILD TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE REGION TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK...SHOULD SPURN MORE GROWTH OF GRASSES...AS WE
TREND TOWARD LESSER CURING.

COOK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    64  76  32  45 /  20  80  50  40
HUTCHINSON      61  74  30  45 /  20  70  50  40
NEWTON          63  74  30  44 /  30  80  50  40
ELDORADO        64  76  32  44 /  20  80  50  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  78  34  46 /  20  80  50  40
RUSSELL         55  59  29  46 /  20  60  50  10
GREAT BEND      56  61  28  46 /  20  50  50  20
SALINA          60  67  30  46 /  30  70  50  20
MCPHERSON       60  70  29  45 /  30  70  50  30
COFFEYVILLE     65  74  36  45 /  10  80  70  30
CHANUTE         64  73  35  43 /  10  80  70  40
IOLA            63  73  34  43 /  20  80  70  40
PARSONS-KPPF    64  73  36  44 /  10  80  70  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-047-
048.

&&

$$









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