Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 170927
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
327 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 317 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

Today:
Chances for drizzle and fog will diminish during the morning in
Southeast KS. Good southwest to west flow ahead of front will
allow temperatures to climb well above normals. Cold front should
arrive near I-70 around sunset. The front will surge through most
of the forecast area by midnight with gusty winds in its wake.
Opted not to hoist wind advisory at this point to let the day
shift fine tune things.

Saturday:
Decent lift ahead of main upper trough and deeper moisture in wake
of front may lead to scattered rain showers or light rain in
central KS. This should wane fairly quickly in the morning with
passage of upper wave. Winds Saturday may need an advisory early
in the day, but surface pressure gradient relaxes considerably
during the afternoon. By Saturday night, flow will become
distinctly downslope, which will make low temperature forecast
tricky given radiational cooling vs mixing.

Sunday:
Ideal downslope flow starts the day, with winds increasing/backing
during the day. Temperatures should rebound given downslope
component and lack of strong inversion in the morning.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 317 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

Medium range models in surprisingly good agreement with
transition of upper flow. One weak shortwave moves through on
Monday and another on Tuesday, both of which contribute to a
longwave though over the eastern US by midweek, with ridging
across the Rockies. Models expand upper ridge east on Wednesday-
Thursday, effectively flattening ridge. Downslope flow should in
theory speed up the moderation of the chilly airmass that spilled
into the Plains with the cold front on Monday night-Tuesday. A
quick look into the remainder of the Thanksgiving weekend shows
differences between ECMWF/GFS become evident by Friday with
significant timing differences on the arrival of the next surge
of cold air. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1134 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

Low clouds with some light drizzle will affect southern Kansas
late tonight. Cloud heights will drop into the IFR and LIFR range
late tonight then should quickly improve with clearing skies from
west to east during the mid-late morning hours on Friday. A strong
cold front will push southward into central Kansas by Friday
evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 317 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

Gusty winds are expected behind the cold front later tonight and
through most of the daylight hours on Saturday. Winds will
diminish in the afternoon as the surface pressure gradient starts
to relax. GFDI values will likely be very high area wide on
Saturday. Gusty winds ahead of the next front on Monday will
likely result in very high GFDI values over most areas, with
extreme values possible over the Flint Hills, where the strongest
winds are expected. Current wind forecast for Monday may be
conservative given strong flow aloft. -Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    77  45  56  30 /  10  10  10   0
Hutchinson      78  43  54  27 /   0  20  10   0
Newton          74  42  54  28 /  10  10  10   0
ElDorado        75  44  55  30 /  10  10  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   77  47  57  30 /  10  10  10   0
Russell         78  40  53  25 /  10  30  10   0
Great Bend      80  40  53  25 /   0  20  10   0
Salina          78  41  55  27 /   0  30  20   0
McPherson       76  42  54  26 /   0  20  20   0
Coffeyville     74  51  56  32 /  30  10  10   0
Chanute         71  47  55  30 /  20  10  20   0
Iola            70  46  54  30 /  20  10  20   0
Parsons-KPPF    72  49  55  30 /  30  10  20   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...CDJ
FIRE WEATHER...PJH



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