Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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033
FXUS63 KICT 230437
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1137 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 301 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Trough is positioned over Manitoba into the Northern Plains.
Current cold frontal boundary stemming from this system is across
eastern Iowa to along the Kansas and Nebraska borders then into
southwest Kansas. Scattered storm initiation remains possible for
the northern half of Kansas this evening and tonight. Excessive
heat headline is in effect until 8PM CDT with temperatures over
100 degrees and heat indices of 105 to 110 degrees. Forecast
challenges are the chances and timing for precipitation for the
next couple of days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Activity level will increase given the change in overall flow
pattern which is going to bring a relief to the heat and chances for
thunderstorms. Trough over Northern Plains will have southeast movement
to the Great Lakes by Sunday afternoon. A cold front has begun
its push southward this afternoon, but storm initiation will need
to break the cap which model soundings do not show until around 0z
for central Kansas. Inverted v model soundings clearly show that
winds would be the main threat if the high based storms get a
little rowdy. This boundary is going to move through late tonight
and be off to the south by Sunday afternoon; however, the system
stays over the Midwest the does prompt the question what will
happen with a stall or regression of the boundary.

Changes to the forecast are primarily only in the precipitation field
with the latest guidance on timing and coverage. Confidence is
not high in the precipitation chances and timing for south central
Kansas. Relatively cooler air from this system will bring a
decrease in temperatures to roughly 10 degrees below the highs for
today to end the weekend into the first part of the week!
Unfortunately southeast Kansas will still have heat indices of 100
to 105 degrees on Sunday therefore the Excessive Heat Warning was
extended across that area. The location of the boundary really
could swing the dew points.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

After a couple days off from the heat, there is going to be a
return mid week as highs are once again forecast to reach around
the century mark. A quick system coming off of the Rockies is
going to hug the U.S. and Canadian border through the week. As
this system moves east and southeast, there will be waves sent
through at the end of week to bring about the next chances of
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Scattered showers/storms will continue to affect the area
overnight but is expected to diminish before daybreak. Northerly
winds will switch to the northeast and east on Sunday.
Thunderstorms look to redevelop but the better chances will be
south of the Kansas/Oklahoma border.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    75  96  72  95 /  40  30  20  20
Hutchinson      73  94  70  95 /  30  20  10  20
Newton          73  93  70  94 /  40  30  10  20
ElDorado        73  94  70  93 /  40  30  10  20
Winfield-KWLD   75  96  72  95 /  20  30  30  20
Russell         71  92  69  96 /  50  20   0  10
Great Bend      71  93  69  96 /  60  20  10  10
Salina          73  95  71  97 /  60  20   0  10
McPherson       73  94  70  95 /  40  20  10  20
Coffeyville     75  96  72  94 /  20  30  20  20
Chanute         74  93  71  93 /  30  30  20  10
Iola            73  93  70  93 /  30  30  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    75  95  71  94 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ095-096-
098>100.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VJP
SHORT TERM...VJP
LONG TERM...VJP
AVIATION...CDJ



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