Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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886
FXUS63 KICT 201748
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1248 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 303 AM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Impressive anticyclonic motion is evident on this mornings water
vapor loop as upper-level ridging holds strong across the central
CONUS. Cutoff energy continues to persist across the Pacific
Northwest, with additional shortwave energy beginning to dig south
across the Canadian Rocky Mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

No changes have been made to the inherited heat headlines once
again. With many locations coming up short of the heat advisories
criteria these past few days, have opted to leave the excessive
heat warning as is for now. Over the next few days a possible
expansion of the heat advisory and excessive heat warning will
need to be monitored as the more substantial heat arrives.

The heat really starts to crank up for the rest of the work week
and into the weekend, with 1000-850mb partial thickness values
easily supportive of widespread lower 100s across central and
south central Kansas as 25-30C air advects northeast across the
region each day. As we progress through the end of the work week,
the dry, warm air aloft with gradually work its way further east.
Therefore, expect dewpoints to mix out a bit more each day across
the area. The worst heat indices still look to occur on Thursday
when the feels like temperature may approach the 110 degree mark
across portions of central Kansas. This does not seem unreasonable
given the fact that temperatures are expected to approach the
104-105 degree mark. Unfortunately, little relief will be felt at
night with overnight lows only dropping into the middle to upper
70s. There is a slight chance Friday night into Saturday for an
isolated storm or two, but confidence is not high enough at this
time to include any mentions higher than a slight chances across
far central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

As the upper-level ridge begins to break down towards the
beginning of the weekend we could still see the 100 degree
temperatures continue through the day on Saturday. However, the
big question will be at that point how low dewpoints will get with
ample mixing spanning numerous prior days. Given the uncertainty
have opted to hold off on extending heat headlines into Saturday
for now.

With the above mentioned upper-level ridge breaking down as a
trough begins to dig across the Northern Plains, a frontal
boundary will begin to slowly drop south across the region. This
will bring periodic chances for storms towards the end of the
weekend and into the first half of the work week. Accompanying
these chances for precipitation, temperatures will "cool down" to
near normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Southerly winds at 15 to 25 mph will prevail through the day
before diminishing and backing to the southeast this evening and
overnight. SSW winds will return around or shortly after 15z on
Thu. Scattered cumulus in the 5-7 kft range will expand across
portions of south central and much of southeast KS this afternoon
while diminishing quickly this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT   102  77 101  77 /   0   0   0  10
Hutchinson     101  77 102  77 /   0   0   0  10
Newton         100  77 101  77 /   0   0   0  10
ElDorado        98  77  99  77 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   99  77 100  77 /   0   0   0   0
Russell        102  76 104  75 /   0   0   0  10
Great Bend     102  75 104  75 /   0   0   0  10
Salina         104  78 105  78 /   0   0   0  10
McPherson      101  77 103  76 /   0   0   0  10
Coffeyville     97  75  98  75 /  10   0   0   0
Chanute         96  76  97  76 /  10   0   0   0
Iola            96  76  97  76 /  10   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    96  76  97  76 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ033-048-050-051-
067>069-082-083-091>096-098>100.

Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ049-052-053-
070>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMR
SHORT TERM...JMR
LONG TERM...JMR
AVIATION...MWM



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