Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 181950
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
250 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Tonight-Monday:
Moderate-strong northwesterly flow aloft will help
push the southern Plains front further south into Louisiana and
south-central Texas by late Monday. A passing shortwave in the upper
flow may bring a batch of mid-level clouds, and perhaps a few
sprinkles to north-central/northeast Kansas Monday morning.
Otherwise, expecting dry weather with less humidity.

Tuesday-Wednesday:
The flow pattern aloft is progged to relax some with winds backing
to more westerly. This will allow for a low-level lee trough and
southerly return flow to develop, leading to above normal
temperatures, especially by Wednesday. Slight chances for
thunderstorms will be limited to mainly central Kansas, both
Tuesday night and Wednesday night near the lee trough/frontal
intersection.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Confidence is relatively high in above normal temperatures across
the region for Thursday, with both the ECMWF and GFS showing a
strong low-level thermal ridge axis from the southern Rockies
northeastward across Kansas. Forecast confidence decreases some
Friday into the weekend, regarding the timing of an upper trough
amplification, emanating from southwest Canada across the north-
central CONUS. The GFS and ECMWF both do show an attendant strong
cold front moving through the forecast area in association with
this upper trough, however the GFS is significantly faster. Friday
may be very tricky with regard to the high temperature forecast.
In general, expecting a decent chance of thunderstorms with this
front late in the week, with a trend for cooler than normal
temperatures behind the front for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Aviation concerns are expected to be minimal through the next 24
hours.

Shortwave trough is currently swinging across the Mississippi
Valley and heading into the Great Lakes region. The cold front
that swept through last night now stretches from northern AR into
central TX with much cooler and drier air spilling south across
the Plains. Confidence is high that VFR conditions will remain in
place today and tonight as winds come around to the south and
southwest by Mon morning.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    61  86  64  91 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      58  86  63  92 /   0  10   0   0
Newton          60  84  63  90 /   0  10   0   0
ElDorado        59  83  63  89 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   59  85  64  90 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         59  87  63  93 /  10  10   0  10
Great Bend      58  86  63  93 /  10  10   0  10
Salina          60  87  63  94 /  10  10   0   0
McPherson       59  86  63  92 /   0  10   0   0
Coffeyville     60  85  63  90 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         59  84  62  89 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            59  84  62  89 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    58  85  63  89 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...RBL



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