Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 122323
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
523 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

...Updated for Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 201 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

A shortwave trough digging across the Central Plains states today
may bring a period of snow flurries to portions of mainly central
and western KS through the early evening hours but it`s hard to
find support for accumulating snow. With some breaks in the clouds
later tonight, a cold airmass already in place will be reinforced
as high pressure drifts south out of the Northern Plains states
toward the area with continued low level cold air advection. Low
temperatures in the single digits appear possible across much of
central KS once again while values around 10 degrees are
anticipated near the OK state line.

Northwest mid/upper flow will prevail through the short term
periods steering subtle shortwave troughs toward the Central
Plains states through the weekend. Saturday will be much like
today with highs struggling to climb out of the teens across
central KS while locations along the state line rise into the mid
20s. A progressive shortwave trough is progged to move across the
area Sat night into early Sunday bringing a period of light snow
to the area. The GFS indicates robust lift through the dendritic
snow growth zone as a transient area of mid lvl waa sweeps across
the area through the morning hours on Sun. We may see up to an
inch of snow before tapering off during the morning hours on Sun.

As high pressure moves east of the area on Sun, southerly flow
will bring rising temperatures briefly before another surge of
arctic air arrives late Sun night into Mon. We may see another
round of light snow along the frontal zone and maintained mid pops
across much of the area into early Mon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 201 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

Cold arctic air will become more deeply entrenched across the
area early in the week as a slow moving mid/upper trough meanders
across the Great Lakes area. Dry weather will prevail through the
mid and latter portion of the work week with moderating
temperatures anticipated. A mid/upper trough will bring rising
heights/increasing thickness toward the end of the period with
highs climbing into the 50s on Fri. &&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1132 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

Ceilings will lower a bit as we move through the day although VFR
is expected to prevail. We may see some light snow flurries
impacting portions of central KS where a very transient period of
MVFR cigs will be possible. A reinforcing shot of cool air will
arrive tonight in the wake of the subtle storm system with light
north to northeast winds prevailing across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 523 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

VFR conditions anticipated the next 24 hours.

Cannot rule out a few stray snow flurries this evening for mainly
RSL-GBD-SLN as a subtle upper disturbance approaches from the
northwest, but definitely no accumulation or adverse impacts.
Otherwise, mostly mid-level clouds around 7,000-12,000 ft AGL
expected the next 24 hours, with mostly light north-northeast
winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT     9  23  16  43 /  10   0  10  10
Hutchinson       5  21  14  43 /  10   0  10   0
Newton           4  20  13  40 /  10   0  10  10
ElDorado         9  23  16  40 /  10   0  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   12  26  18  43 /  10   0  10   0
Russell          3  20  13  46 /  20   0  10   0
Great Bend       3  22  14  47 /  20   0  10   0
Salina           3  19  13  42 /  20   0  20  10
McPherson        2  19  11  42 /  10   0  20  10
Coffeyville     14  27  16  40 /  10   0  10  20
Chanute         10  24  15  37 /  10   0  10  30
Iola            10  23  14  36 /  10   0  20  40
Parsons-KPPF    12  25  16  38 /  10   0  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...ADK



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