000
FXUS63 KICT 161802
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
102 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

SENDING A FORECAST UPDATE TO REMOVE MORNING FOG MENTION. THINKING
LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLUGGISH TO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING DUE TO LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION...WITH RICHER
MOISTURE AND DENSE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LIKELY ALLOWING LOW
CLOUDS TO LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST KS. ALSO...A
FEW HIT-AND-MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST KS AS UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. STRONG/SEVERE STORMS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO WEAK
SHEAR/INSTABILITY.

ADK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

OTHER THAN SOME POSSIBLE RE-DEVELOPING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS TODAY THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY...AS THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL KANSAS
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE COMBINATION OF WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER RIDGING SHOULD PROHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD BE FAVORED WELL TO THE WEST OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS REGION. THE QUALITY OF GULF MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE ACROSS KANSAS THIS PERIOD...WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW TAPPING RICHER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR SUNDAY WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE
UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS EJECTING OUT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. IF THE WAVE COMES OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY THEN THE FOCUS
WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST...AFFECTING FAR EASTERN KANSAS AND
MISSOURI BUT IF IT SLOWS DOWN THEN THE FOCUS WILL BE MORE TOWARDS
CENTRAL KANSAS. SUNDAY CONTINUES TO HAVE THE LOOK A POTENTIALLY
ACTIVE WEATHER DAY FOR THE REGION...WITH ALL THE INGREDIENTS
COMING TOGETHER FOR A FULL ARRAY OF SEVERE WEATHER. OTHERWISE
MODELS ARE SHOWING A SECOND WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS...WHICH COULD SPARK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS AND POSSIBLE
SEVERE WEATHER FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON MONDAY. COOLER DRIER AIR TO
FOLLOW AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

HIGH MVFR TO LOW VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS EASTERN KS. ADDITIONALLY...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW HIT-AND-
MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR KCNU AS UPPER LEVEL
LOW SLOWLY EXITS TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE...COULD SEE ANOTHER REPEAT
PERFORMANCE OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
FOR ALL TAF SITES...DUE TO A CONTINUED MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER...CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. ONLY WENT WITH 4SM BR
SCT009 AS A STARTING POINT FOR NOW...ANTICIPATE LATER SHIFTS TO
GRADUALLY DETERIOATE THESE CONDITIONS.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    79  64  82  67 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      79  63  83  66 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          78  64  81  66 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        78  64  81  67 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   78  66  81  67 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         81  62  84  65 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      81  63  83  65 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          81  63  84  67 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       80  62  83  66 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     77  65  82  68 /  30  10  10  10
CHANUTE         76  66  81  67 /  20  10  10  10
IOLA            76  66  81  67 /  20  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    76  65  81  67 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$