Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 202004
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
304 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Water vapor imagery shows upper circulation lifting into southern
OK with much more robust upper energy moving out of the Northern
Intermountain and into the northern Rockies. At the surface, lee
troughing continues to deepen over eastern CO producing strong
pressure gradient across the Plains.

Gusty south winds will remain in place tonight, especially for
areas along and west of I-135. Sustained speeds around 30 mph will
be common in these locations. Most of forecast area will remain in
moist 850-700mb flow overnight in an uncapped airmass above
850mb. In addition, upper impulse to our south still has to push
through. With this, can`t rule out an isolated shower or storm
tonight into Sat morning, but confidence is high that we are not
looking at widespread convection. Attention will then turn cold
front to push through Sat afternoon/evening.

Timing of cold front and associated storms have slowly slightly
form the 12z runs yesterday and midnight shift did a good job
adjusting the timing. By 21z Sat, cold front is expected to
stretch from southeast of Salina to just southeast of Hutchinson
with storms likely developing or have already started to develop
along it. So for timing, we are looking at areas near KHUT being
affected between the 1 pm to 4 pm frame and KICT in the 4 pm to 7
pm range. Strong to severe storms still look likely given amount
of instability(~2,000J/KG) and deep layer shear in the 40-45kt
range. Still looking like damaging winds and quarter to half
dollar size hail. May see the line of storms start to slow down as
they get into se KS which may promote some minor flooding as the
evening continues. The better chances for supercells look to be
further south into OK where storm interactions will initially be
minimized more than up here.

By 12z Sun, storms will be exiting southeast KS leaving a much
drier and cooler airmass in place. However, the airmass behind the
front does`t look that anomalous with highs on Sun still near 70
degrees. There is good model agreement in another shortwave
swinging across the northern Plains Mon into Mon night with this
feature not expected to bring precip to the area.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Main story through this extended period will be a couple different
cold fronts to swing through the area. First front is expected to
move through Mon afternoon into Mon night and is expected to come
through dry. This will knock down highs Tue into the 60s which is
closer to seasonal normals for this time of year. However, we will
quickly get back into downslope and above normal temps for Wed
with highs in the 70s. There is some model agreement that a much
more significant front will move through Thu into Thu evening and
will have a chance to bring our first widespread freeze.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Strong/gusty south winds will prevail across the region this
afternoon and well through the evening, as deep low pressure
approaches from the west. As low- level moisture continues to
increase, MVFR ceilings will increase this evening and tonight
from the south, likely eventually dropping below 2000 ft AGL for
most areas. These MVFR ceilings will linger most areas through the
morning. A strong cold front will approach from the west by late
morning, likely reaching RSL- GBD around the noon hour, switching
winds around to the northwest and gusty.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    77  66  75  46 /  10  20  70  50
Hutchinson      76  66  74  43 /  10  20  60  20
Newton          75  66  73  44 /  10  20  70  40
ElDorado        77  66  74  46 /  10  20  70  70
Winfield-KWLD   77  66  76  47 /  10  20  70  80
Russell         79  64  70  39 /  10  10  20   0
Great Bend      78  64  72  39 /  10  10  20  10
Salina          79  66  74  43 /  10  20  70  20
McPherson       76  66  73  43 /  10  20  70  20
Coffeyville     77  66  79  52 /   0  20  40  90
Chanute         76  65  77  50 /   0  20  60  90
Iola            76  65  77  50 /   0  20  60  90
Parsons-KPPF    77  66  78  52 /   0  20  40  90

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 2 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ032-033-047>052-067-
068-082-083.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...ADK


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