000
FXUS63 KICT 130456
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1156 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TOPPING THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER
RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON...HEADING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ATTENDANT
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS LATE THIS PM/EVE BEFORE STALLING IN NORTHERN OK
LATER TONIGHT. WEAK-MODERATE LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL TRY
TO OFFSET VERY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH CAPE/SHEAR VALUES ARE VERY STRONG...PROGGED
CINH IS STILL ABOUT 35-60 J/KG SO THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY COME
THROUGH OUR AREA DRY. LESS HOT...BUT QUITE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS NORTH OF RETREATING
WARM FRONT WHICH SHOULD REACH SOUTHWESTERN KS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WARM SECTOR RETURNS TO OUR AREA FOR FRIDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS MID 90S TO ~100. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS
PROGGED TO TOP THE UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE STRONGER ENERGY AFFECTING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A COINCIDENT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED AS THE WEAKER WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
THIS COULD PROVIDE AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN THE SOUTHEAST.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING
ATOP THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WHICH
RESULTS IN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS AND CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS (30-50%)
AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL. THE UPPER
RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO WARMING TEMPERATURES TOWARD
MIDWEEK WITH SLIM-NIL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

AT 05Z WEAK SSE-SAGGING COLD FRONT HAD VENTURED INTO SE KS. N/NE WINDS
IN WAKE OF FRONT ARE A BIT STRONGER THAN HAD BEEN ANTICIPATED WITH A
SUSTAINED 17KTS/20MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 25KTS. LWR-DECK COMPONENT TO
BECOME ELY/SELY ~15Z WITH SLIGHTLY DIMINISHING SPEEDS. ALL 5 TERMINALS
TO MAINTAIN VFR STATUS THROUGHOUT THE 13/06Z ISSUANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  90  71  97 /  10   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      67  90  71  99 /   0  10  10  10
NEWTON          67  88  70  97 /   0   0  10  10
ELDORADO        67  87  69  95 /  10   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   71  90  71  97 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELL         63  91  71 100 /   0  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      65  92  71 100 /   0  10  10  10
SALINA          65  88  70  99 /   0  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       66  89  71  98 /   0  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     71  88  70  94 /  10   0  10  10
CHANUTE         69  86  68  93 /  10   0  10  10
IOLA            68  86  67  92 /  10   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    70  87  69  94 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

ES