Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 231210
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
710 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Forecast Highlight: Severe thunderstorms possible thru Wed.

An upper-deck low set up camp over the SE Alberta/SW Saskatchewan
suring the night. The upper low will remain nearly stationary over
this region while an upper-deck trof strengthens from MT to the SW
CA coast. This would keep the sfc low positioned over primarily SE
CO & NE NM. This would continue to enable RICH moisture to stream
N across all of KICT Country. With little change in the overall
pattern am having doubts the dry line will make much progress east
with the boundary positioned over the Southwestern Plains. The dry
line may begin to push E on Tue, perhaps extending from just N of
KDDC to W TX Tue Afternoon & Evening. A fairly well-defined axis
of extreme instablility will continue to reside from Srn Nebraska,
thru the Wrn half of KS & OK, to W TX. Deep-layer directional
shear is impressive acrs nearly all of KS but with 6-KM bulk shear
most pronounced from Wrn KS to along the NM/TX border the greatest
risk for supercells would remain in these areas today & Tue,
although the severe threat should spread slowly E toward Central
KS Tue & Wed. For our CWA the greatest threat would be large hail,
likely golfballs, with the threat greatest Tue Afternoon & Evening
as well as Wed Afternoon & Evening. During these periods a few
tornadoes may occur along the Wrn corridor of our forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Medium range models agree fairly well with upper pattern through
Friday, pushing a compact shortwave E that`ll reach Nebraska & Wrn
KS Fri Afternoon & Evening. They still diverge on Sat with the GFS
a bit faster the NE lift of the shortwave, placing it over the ND/
MN border Sat Afternoon whereas the NAM only lifts it to Ern SD.
Unfortunately the surface dryline/front position remains nebulous
at best. Regardless, continued unsettled and stormy weather will
continue at most locations for most periods. The inherited
forecast has been kept intact.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 709 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Expect MVFR cigs for most locations this morning as low-mid level
moisture remains high.  Could also see some SHRA/TSRA develop along
and east of I-135 for the morning hours, as low level moisture
transport from SW OK into NE KS helps spark isolated to widely
scattered SHRA/TSRA.  will go with some VCTS for the KICT,KSLN and
KCNU Tafs for a few hours this morning for this chance.

Attention will then shift to the late afternoon/evening hours, as a
dryline is expected to be just west of KGBD and KRSL. Severe TSRA is
expected to develop along this boundary just to the west of KGBD and
KRSL by this evening. Could also see some of the TSRA move NE and
possibly reach KHUT as well, so will include the mention of VCTS for
KGBD, KRSL and KHUT for the evening hours.  Not too confident in
TSRA making it to KICT so will not mention VCTS for now in this
location.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    80  68  83  68 /  40  40  40  40
Hutchinson      80  67  84  68 /  40  40  40  40
Newton          79  67  82  68 /  40  40  40  40
ElDorado        78  68  82  68 /  40  40  40  40
Winfield-KWLD   80  68  82  68 /  60  40  30  40
Russell         82  64  84  68 /  30  40  30  30
Great Bend      82  64  85  68 /  30  40  30  20
Salina          80  66  83  69 /  40  40  40  40
McPherson       80  66  83  68 /  40  40  40  40
Coffeyville     79  67  81  69 /  40  40  30  40
Chanute         79  67  81  69 /  40  40  40  30
Iola            79  67  81  69 /  40  40  50  30
Parsons-KPPF    79  67  81  69 /  40  40  30  40

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...BDK



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