Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 162359
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
659 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Scattered showers/thunderstorms currently southeast of the
Turnpike corridor may tend to gain some strength as they become
increasingly rooted in the destabilizing boundary layer. This
activity should exit into far eastern KS and MO by evening.
Attention then turns to thunderstorm chances late this afternoon
and evening along and ahead of a southeastward advancing cold
front. Despite strong frontal convergence, upper support and mid-
level cooling is rather weak to non-existent (other than a subtle
jet streak approaching from the southwest). Consequently, activity
may tend to be fairly isolated to widely scattered at best.
Nevertheless, MLCAPE values up to 3000 j/kg in concert with 25-30
kts of deep layer shear will promote strong/severe activity with
anything that can develop. Main threats will be hail up to quarter
to ping-pong ball size and 60-70 mph winds, along with pockets of
heavy rainfall. The greatest potential will be generally
northwest of Winfield to Eureka, and southeast of Salina to Lyons.

Post-frontal warm advection coupled with weak disturbances
embedded within moist mid-level flow will support mostly cloudy
and cooler conditions Sunday, along with hit-or-miss chances for
showers/thunderstorms. Likely not looking at severe weather given
limited instability and lapse rates. Thinking thunderstorm chances
and coverage will gradually increase Sunday night through early
Monday, as an upper trough approaching from the west induces
isentropic ascent and moisture transport across the region. While
widespread severe weather appears unlikely, a handful of strong to
marginally severe storms are possible, along with pockets of
heavy rain.

For Monday-Monday night, warm advection associated with EML
advancing eastward across the area may lead to additional hit-or-
miss storms, but widespread coverage is not expected. Thinking hot
and windy conditions will prevail Tuesday, as a potent Northern
Rockies shortwave induces deep low pressure across the High
Plains. Additionally, EML advancing over the region should keep
most areas dry Tuesday. Model consensus advances a strong cold
front southeast across the region Tuesday night, although given
lack of mid-level cooling and upper support, shower/storm
probabilities appear low at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

After a cool down Wednesday in wake of the cold front,
operational model and ensemble consensus continues to strongly
support the development of a deep longwave trough across the
western CONUS late week through the weekend. This will support
warm and windy weather across Mid-America late week through
weekend. Anticipating mostly dry weather Wed-Thu, with
shower/thunderstorm chances gradually increasing by Thu night and
Friday as moist subtropical mid/upper flow increases from the
southwest. Additionally, while model variability is still fairly
high surrounding specifics, there is potential for a strong
frontal passage mid-late weekend, which would drastically increase
precipitation chances and potential for heavy rain. GFS is most
supportive of this scenario.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Isolated strong thunderstorms will remain possible this evening
near a slow, southward-moving cold front, across south-central
through northeastern Kansas. The HUT and SLN terminals could have
a storm or two in the vicinity. Strong wind gusts and hail could
accompany these storms. MVFR stratus is progged to develop
immediately behind the cold front late tonight into Sunday
morning, across south-central and southeastern Kansas. Other
scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible late
tonight into Sunday across the region, although given
uncertainty in timing/location, have left precipitation mention
out of the terminals for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    64  78  66  88 /  40  40  40  40
Hutchinson      60  74  64  88 /  40  40  50  40
Newton          60  75  65  86 /  40  40  50  50
ElDorado        63  75  66  86 /  40  40  50  50
Winfield-KWLD   67  80  66  88 /  40  40  50  30
Russell         56  73  62  86 /  30  30  60  30
Great Bend      57  73  62  88 /  30  30  50  30
Salina          59  75  64  85 /  40  30  60  50
McPherson       60  74  63  87 /  40  40  50  50
Coffeyville     69  82  67  87 /  40  40  40  30
Chanute         67  77  66  84 /  50  40  50  40
Iola            67  76  65  83 /  50  40  60  40
Parsons-KPPF    69  80  67  86 /  40  40  50  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...JMC


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