Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 180719
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
219 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 217 AM CDT Thu Aug 18 2016

Warm and more humid conditions will prevail for the next couple of
days across Kansas, especially with richer gulf moisture streaming
northward into the area for today through Friday. A few storms will
be possible over southeast Kansas for late this afternoon/tonight,
otherwise better chances of showers/storms will affect the region on
Friday night. A strong cold front will move southward across Kansas
on Friday into Friday night as a healthy progressive upper level
wave moves across the central plains. Strong convergence along the
cold front will interact with the rich gulf moisture and lead to
widespread thunderstorms for late Friday afternoon/night. Wind shear
is somewhat weak but ample instability should support strong/severe
thunderstorms. In addition we could see some heavy rainfall for a
few locations Friday night, with precipitable water values around
two inches favoring higher rainfall rates.

Models trends are more progressive with the cold front therefore we
will taper off precipitation chances sooner on Saturday. North winds
behind the front will usher cooler/drier air across the area on
Saturday with pleasant below normal temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 217 AM CDT Thu Aug 18 2016

Confidence remains high that below normal temperatures will continue
on Sunday and Monday, and could extend into Tuesday with possible
clouds/precipitation. Long range models show the richer gulf moisture
returning to Kansas ahead of a upper level wave ejecting from the
southwestern states for Monday night-Tuesday. Precipitation chances
this period look pretty decent if this signal is maintained by the
models.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1110 PM CDT Wed Aug 17 2016

Areas of MVFR/IFR ceilings/visibilities may develop roughly from
an ICT to CNU line southward early Thursday morning, as higher
dewpoint boundary layer air advects northward from Oklahoma. This
should translate to scattered cumulus decks from midday into the
afternoon hours across most of eastern Kansas. A southerly wind
component will prevail during the forecast valid period, with some
gusts around 20 knots in central Kansas Thursday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    90  70  91  66 /  10  10  40  80
Hutchinson      92  70  93  64 /  10   0  40  80
Newton          90  70  90  64 /  10   0  40  80
ElDorado        89  70  89  65 /  10  10  30  70
Winfield-KWLD   89  70  89  66 /  10  10  30  70
Russell         96  68  90  60 /  10  10  60  70
Great Bend      96  68  93  61 /   0   0  60  70
Salina          97  70  93  63 /  10   0  50  80
McPherson       93  69  91  63 /  10   0  50  80
Coffeyville     88  69  88  69 /  20  20  30  60
Chanute         87  70  87  68 /  10  10  20  60
Iola            88  70  87  68 /  10  10  20  60
Parsons-KPPF    88  70  87  68 /  10  20  20  60

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...JMC



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