Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45
000
FXUS63 KICT 240505
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1205 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

DEEPENING LEE TROUGHING IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING POTENT
SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS INTO THE EVENING HOURS
WEST OF I-135. WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL
8PM...ALTHOUGH THE EVENING SHIFT MAY NEED TO EXTEND ANOTHER HOUR
OR SO.

OTHERWISE...EXPECTING WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION TO INITIATE
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG THE LEE TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD
AND/OR DEVELOP EAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AIDED BY MODEST
TO STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...POSSIBLY REACHING AS FAR EAST AS THE I-135 CORRIDOR BY
AROUND SUNRISE. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS GIVEN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVER MAINLY CENTRAL KS. ACTIVITY MAY
LINGER THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING GENERALLY ALONG/NORTHWEST OF THE
TURNPIKE CORRIDOR.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS. A
SECONDARY LOBE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM
THE WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING A SHARPENING DRYLINE
NEAR/WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL SUPPORT NEAR 60F DEWPOINTS...WITH MODEST HEATING AND MODEST-
STEEP LAPSE RATES YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES 2000-2500 J/KG. THINKING
STORM COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHEST OVER MAINLY NORTHERN KS INTO
EASTERN NE...WITH COVERAGE MORE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
FURTHER SOUTH OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH- CENTRAL KS AND OK...ON THE
SOUTHERLY PERIPHERY OF BEST FORCING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
MAGNITUDE/ORIENTATION WILL SUPPORT A FEW DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THINKING
MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE A HIGHER TORNADO THREAT.
HOWEVER...A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT BETWEEN ABOUT 6-9PM
GIVEN STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND LOWERING LCL HEIGHTS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO WANE IN INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE EAST
OF THE FLINT HILLS GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN INCREASING
INHIBITION AND UPPER FORCING DEPARTING TO THE EAST.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGHER- END SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING...AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 80-100 KT
SPEED MAX APPROACHES MID-AMERICA FROM THE WEST...OVERSPREADING AN
INCREASING MOIST AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. FINER DETAILS REGARDING
WARM FRONT/DRYLINE PLACEMENT ALONG WITH TRACK OF UPPER
SHORTWAVE/SPEED MAX HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT BETWEEN
VARIOUS RUNS AND MODELS...WHICH SHOULD BE EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS REMAINED
FAIRLY HIGH THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...LENDING CONFIDENCE TO THE
FORECAST. WITH CONTINUED FLUCTUATIONS IN MODEL VARIABILITY
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO HASH OUT
FINER DETAILS JUST YET. BUT GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
FORCING IN CONCERT WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY...OVERALL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS HIGHER-END SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
KS/OK TUESDAY AFTERNOON- EVENING...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG-VIOLENT TORNADOES. STAY TUNED.

GFS ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM STRONGLY SUGGEST THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL RELOAD BY LATE NEXT WEEK...POTENTIALLY
SUPPORTING A CONTINUED ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN
PATTERN FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH
SOME STORMS TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING.

POTENT UPPER WAVE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE ROCKIES. AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET HAS DEVELOPED RESULTING IN SOME
WIND SHEAR RIGHT OFF OF THE SURFACE. STORMS OVER NW KS WILL TRACK
TOWARD CENTRAL KS TONIGHT AND MAY IMPACT KRSL-KSLN AFTER 08Z.
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE FURTHER SOUTH IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF I-135 AFTER 20Z
AND TRACK EAST AND SOUTHEAST. AT THIS TIME KHUT-KSLN-KICT LOOK TO
BE THE MOST LIKELY IMPACTED. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.

LAWSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

LOW FIRE DANGER EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO SPRING
GREEN-UP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    59  80  59  79 /  20  40  30  10
HUTCHINSON      59  80  55  78 /  20  40  30  10
NEWTON          59  79  58  77 /  20  40  40  10
ELDORADO        59  78  59  77 /  10  30  40  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   60  80  60  79 /  10  30  30  20
RUSSELL         60  83  50  76 /  40  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      59  83  51  76 /  30  20  10  10
SALINA          61  80  54  78 /  30  50  40  10
MCPHERSON       59  80  55  78 /  30  50  40  10
COFFEYVILLE     59  79  61  78 /   0  10  30  20
CHANUTE         58  79  61  78 /   0  10  30  20
IOLA            58  79  61  77 /   0  10  40  20
PARSONS-KPPF    59  79  61  78 /   0  10  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...ADK



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.