Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 211949
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
249 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017

Currently have some very light showers or sprinkles sliding east
across west/central KS in an area of mid level warm advection.
Water vapor imagery shows a pronounced circulation over the
central Great Basin with the main upper low approaching the
western Great Lakes region.

Shortwave energy over the Great Basin will continue to track east
tonight into Mon. This feature will start to spread
showers/isolated storms across western KS this evening, reaching
central KS late tonight. Showers and isolated storms will make
their way across most of the forecast area Mon, with an overall
decrease in coverage and intensity as the evening hours approach.
Not expecting any severe storms with the activity during the day
Mon.

Pattern will remain active as another impulse dives down the
backside of the mean trough and eventually dives across central KS
Mon night. There are a couple scenarios for convection Mon night.
The first would be for surface based storms to develop along the
front over nw KS late Mon afternoon and push southeast through the
evening hours. The other is for elevated storms to develop along
the mid level baroclinic zone as it dives south. Regardless of
which scenario pans out, it appears at least some strong to low
end severe storms will be possible given the presence of good
direction shear.

Upper low will remain situated over the upper Mississippi Valley
for Tue and will slowly sink south. Should see some afternoon
shallow instability showers and isolated storms Tue afternoon as
very cold mid level temps provide steep low level lapse rates.

Well below normal temps will likely be the bigger story through
the first few days of this forecast with highs Mon and Tue in the
65 to 70 degree range. Lows Mon night will be in the low 50s with
Wed morning lows in the 40s area wide. Normal lows for this time
of year are in the upper 50s to near 60.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017

Pesky upper trough will finally push east and by 12z Thu will be
over the Tennessee Valley. However, pattern will remain active
with another shortwave deepening over the northern Intermountain
into the northern Rockies. Meanwhile, strong low/mid level warm
advection will finally result in above normal temps for Thu. Will
keep with the thinking that strong capping will limit convection
during the day Thu. However, there is good model agreement that
storms will develop along a southward advancing mid level
baroclinic zone Thu night, especially across central KS. Some
large hail looks possible with storms Thu night. Pattern will not
change much with upper low anchored over northern Rockies into
western Saskatchewan with southwest flow and a series of impulses
passing across the central/southern Plains. This will maintain
periodic storm chances for the Fri-Sun time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017

A surface high over southeastern Kansas, will slide eastward into
Missouri/Arkansas tonight. This will allow light westerly winds to
back to light south-southwesterly. A batch of mid-level
altocumulus/castellanus over west-central Kansas, associated with
700 mb warm air advection/confluence may reach a few of the
central Kansas terminals this afternoon, before weakening. A few
sprinkles or a brief light shower is possible at the RSL,GBD,HUT
terminals this afternoon, but no restrictions to
ceilings/visibilities are expected. A shortwave over the Great
Basin this afternoon, will move eastward across Colorado tonight
and Kansas on Monday. This feature will bring an increase in mid-
level cloud cover and scattered showers/isolated storms, with
better lift and marginal instability. No significant restrictions
to ceilings/visibilities are expected however.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    74  52  69  52 /  10  20  40  30
Hutchinson      74  52  68  51 /  20  30  40  30
Newton          72  52  68  51 /  10  20  40  30
ElDorado        73  52  69  52 /  10  20  30  30
Winfield-KWLD   74  53  71  53 /   0  20  30  20
Russell         73  51  70  48 /  10  50  40  50
Great Bend      73  51  69  48 /  20  50  50  40
Salina          74  51  70  51 /  10  30  60  40
McPherson       73  52  68  50 /  10  30  50  40
Coffeyville     73  52  73  54 /   0  10  20  30
Chanute         72  52  71  53 /   0  10  20  30
Iola            72  51  70  53 /   0  10  20  40
Parsons-KPPF    72  52  72  54 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...JMC



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