Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 071319
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
819 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 819 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KANSAS FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE LAST
30 MINUTES AND ARE TRACKING SOUTHEAST.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

HOT AND BREEZY DAY ANTICIPATED...AS WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ANTICIPATE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL HOLD
DEWPOINTS UP A BIT HIGHER THAN MODEL PROGS...WHICH SHOULD ALSO
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM REALLY SKYROCKETING...ALTHOUGH STILL
ANTICIPATING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S...WARMEST OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. HEAT INDICES SHOULD REACH THE LOW 100S
FOR MOST AREAS.

STOUT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES OVERNIGHT. AIRMASS BY LATE AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THE
COLD FRONT OVER FAR NORTHERN KS AND NE WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY
STRONG INSTABILITY AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
CONSEQUENTLY...SCATTERED STRONG-SEVERE STORMS WILL FIRE BY MID-
LATE AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NE. DUE TO FRONTAL FORCING
AND LARGE SUB-CLOUD TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS...ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY CONGEAL INTO ONE-TWO THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES DURING THE
EVENING...PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST
KS...REACHING THE I-70 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO DARK. ALTHOUGH INITIAL
THREATS OVER NEBRASKA WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...MAIN
THREAT WILL TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WIND DURING THE EVENING OVER
NORTHERN/NORTHEAST KS. GIVEN WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...THINKING OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME AND SOUTHWARD EXTENT...GENERALLY SOUTH OF
I-70...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH. THREAT FOR
A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ALL THE WAY INTO SOUTHERN
KS BY LATE TONIGHT...AS LOW-LEVEL JET IMPINGES UPON SURGING COLD
FRONT/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...BUT THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD. ADDITIONALLY...WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW HEAT
BURSTS OVERNIGHT WITH DECAYING CONVECTION AMIDST A PREVIOUSLY
DEEPLY MIXED AIRMASS.

POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER DEWPOINTS FOR TUE-WED...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW
90S. LINGERING 700-600MB BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY ALLOW A FEW HIT-OR-
MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR
SOUTHERN KS. RETURNING 850-700MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW
FOR INCREASED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KS.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

A WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED BY LATE WEEK...AS WESTERN RIDGE
BUILDS EASTWARD. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD LINGER THURSDAY...AS
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ADVANCES EAST AHEAD OF APPROACHING WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE. COULD BE LOOKING AT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENTERING
BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
DIGGING EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGHING PROGRESSES A COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS MID- AMERICA. AN ASSOCIATED POST COLD FRONT COOL DOWN
COULD FOLLOW FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE SOUTH LATER TODAY AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS LATE TONIGHT. A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHEAST KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST NORTH AND EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID
PERIOD.

KED


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    99  74  89  66 /   0  20  20  20
HUTCHINSON     100  72  88  64 /  10  30  20  10
NEWTON          98  72  87  64 /  10  30  20  10
ELDORADO        97  72  87  64 /  10  20  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   99  75  90  66 /   0  20  20  30
RUSSELL        101  69  87  63 /  10  50  10  10
GREAT BEND     102  69  87  63 /  10  30  20  10
SALINA         101  71  88  65 /  20  50  20   0
MCPHERSON      100  71  88  64 /  20  30  20   0
COFFEYVILLE     97  74  90  66 /  10  20  20  30
CHANUTE         96  74  87  64 /  10  20  20  10
IOLA            95  73  86  64 /  10  30  20  10
PARSONS-KPPF    96  74  89  64 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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