Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 261704
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1204 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

MAIN FORECAST CHANGES WERE TO SPEED UP THE ONSET OF CONVECTIVE
INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT LESSENING THE
STRONG/VIOLENT LONG-TRACK TORNADO POTENTIAL.

EXPECTING STORMS TO INITIATE POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 1PM...AS LARGE
SCALE ASCENT EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERSPREADS THE WARM
SECTOR...AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ERODES. ANTICIPATING SCATTERED
STORMS TO INITIATE GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE I-135 CORRIDOR NEAR
THE DRYLINE...AND ALSO OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL KS WHERE
DRYLINE/SURFACE TROUGH INTERSECTS A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL KS. EXTREME INSTABILITY AND
40-50 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SEVERE STORMS...CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A
FEW TORNADOES.

AS PREVIOUS FORECASTERS MENTIONED...DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS WILL
BE ORIENTED MORE PARALLEL TO THE KANSAS PORTION OF THE
DRYLINE...WHICH WILL TEND TO INHIBIT DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND FAVOR
MORE MIXED MODE/LINEAR STORMS. NEARLY ALL SHORT-TERM HIRES
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO. ADDITIONALLY...ALL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ENVIRONMENTAL LOW-LEVEL HELICITY WILL REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE
BEFORE 7PM. THESE FACTORS SUPPORT A LESSER THREAT FOR LONG-TRACK
SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. HOWEVER...IF STORMS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE
INTO THE EVENING AND/OR SUPERCELLS MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF OKLAHOMA
THIS EVENING...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY WILL SUPPORT A
HIGHER STRONG/VIOLENT LONG-TRACK TORNADO THREAT THIS EVENING
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST KS...POSSIBLY AFTER
DARK. THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL REMAIN
FURTHER SOUTH OVER OK AND NORTHWEST TX WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
ORIENTED MORE PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE.

FURTHERMORE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
DEVELOPING...AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING.

ADK

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

AN OUTBREAK OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON LINGERING INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
TORNADOES...SOME STRONG...WILL BE POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION TO VERY
LARGE HAIL EXCEEDING 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

ONE CHANGE FROM 24-HOURS AGO WHEN LOOKING AT THE 00Z MODEL DATA IS
AN INCREASE IN THE MID-LVL FLOW NOSING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY
00Z WED. THIS APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN THE 90KT H5 FLOW RUNNING DOWN
THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON THE 00Z RAOBS. IN ADDITION...THE NAM AND TO
A LESSER DEGREE THE GFS FLOW AT H85 IS MORE STRONGLY BACKED COMPARED
TO EARLIER RUNS AS WE MOVE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WHICH
LENDS SUPPORT TO THE OPENING SYNOPSIS. THE NAM HAS ALSO TRENDED
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC LOW OR THE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC 00Z NOW DEVELOPING IT SOUTH INTO THE OK
PANHANDLE AREA WHILE THE GFS OFFERED MORE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY
WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC LOW. THE BOTTOM LINE IS BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS ARE NOW IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT DEVELOPING A DRYLINE
BETWEEN HWY 281 AND HWY 14 OR ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR MEDICINE
LODGE TO GREAT BEND TO RUSSELL. THIS DRYLINE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
DEEP MOIST CONVECTION AS CINH DIMINISHES AFTER 20-21Z. I AM A BIT
CONCERNED THAT THE CAP MAY ERODE EARLIER BUT EITHER WAY THE MORE
ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF H5 HEIGHT
FALLS DURING THE EVENING HOURS WHEN STEEPER MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
AND STRONGER MID- LVL FLOW/STRENGTHENING LOW-LVL SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP IN THE 23-04Z TIMEFRAME. A CONTINUED RISK FOR ALL
SEVERE HAZARDS WILL LIKELY CARRY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE
THE ACTIVITY EXITS THE FORECAST AREA BY 09Z OR SO.

WED-THU...AS THE PAC FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON WED...DEEP
LAYER WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND A
NICE REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY TOP 80 AND TRENDED
HIGHS UP A BIT. MAINTAINED LOW POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS AS
A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP UNDER THE UPPER COLD POOL. A
COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE WED NIGHT WITH A POST-FRONTAL STABLE REGIME
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA ON THU AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRANSLATES
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW
70S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AS A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. MAINTAINED MID-HIGH
POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SMALLER SCALE IMPULSES
MOVE THROUGH THE MEAN MID/UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO REMAIN CAMPED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AREA. THIS WILL ALSO BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH PATCHY IFR CIGS WILL AFFECT THE
AREA THIS MORNING. SEVERE CONVECTION AND AN OUTBREAK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR
AND IS WHERE A TEMPO GROUP FOR +TSRA WAS INSERTED DURING
THE EVENING. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO WESTERN KANSAS THIS
EVENING.

KED


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

RECENT GREEN-UP AND HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES WILL KEEP THE GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER BELOW ELEVATED LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  57  76  47 /  70  80  10  10
HUTCHINSON      81  54  74  45 /  60  70  10  10
NEWTON          80  57  75  46 /  70  80  10  10
ELDORADO        80  58  77  47 /  70  80  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  58  77  48 /  70  80  10   0
RUSSELL         81  49  68  42 /  30  50  20  10
GREAT BEND      83  49  70  42 /  30  40  20  10
SALINA          82  55  73  46 /  70  70  20  10
MCPHERSON       80  54  74  44 /  60  70  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     82  63  78  51 /  60  90  10  10
CHANUTE         79  62  77  50 /  60  90  20  10
IOLA            78  62  77  50 /  60  90  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    80  62  78  51 /  60  90  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...ADK
SYNOPSIS...MWM
SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...KED
FIRE WEATHER...MWM


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