Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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241
FXUS63 KICT 232308
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
608 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

A deep trough over the intermountain west is keeping a strong
ridge over the east. This set up is starting to open up the Gulf
of Mexico. By this evening, return flow will begins to re-
establish itself over the region. This set up is also allowing
some clouds to develop over the CWA and some isolated showers to
the west of CWA. This will keep the temperatures a little cooler
but still above normal for this time of year. The southerly flow
will continue through the night and into the morning allowing the
moisture transport to increase as the frontal system currently in
Colorado begins its slow march across Kansas. Sunday, the moisture
transport will be sufficient enough to allow for more clouds and
an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms. Most of the
thunderstorm activity will be to the west of I-135 during the
afternoon. This increased cloud cover will keep temperatures down
below 90 for the most part with only Southeast Kansas having a
chance to breach the 90 degree mark.

Sunday evening through Monday, the cold front will be making its
slow march across the CWA. Moisture transport will remain strong
and vertical forcing along the front will also remain strong with
significant upper level divergence which will create a highly
conducive environment for convection. This will create wide spread
showers and thunderstorms across the region. The slow moving
nature of the frontal system triggering this convective activity
will allow for several rounds of showers and thunderstorms Monday
night through Tuesday. While forcing and moisture transport
remain good, shear and instability are not, this will keep the
chances for severe thunderstorms very low, but very heavy rain is
likely. Considering the slow moving nature of the frontal system,
many areas could see 1-2 inches of rain from this system. Monday
night, the frontal system will finally push through the CWA but
there will still be some scattered showers and thunderstorms. The
heaviest rain will be further to the east so precipitation amounts
will drop off for Tuesday evening and overnight. Slow clearing
will start to take place overnight Tuesday and temperatures will
drop below normal for this time of year.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

The cold front will be slow to move out of the region which will
keep some lingering chances for some post frontal showers and
thunderstorms along the Oklahoma State line in Southeast Kansas.
Rain amounts are expected to remain on the low end by this time. High
pressure will build into the region during the day Wednesday with
the first polar airmass of the autumn season. This will keep
northerly flow across the region for the remainder of the week.
The mid level look to remain dry and the strength of the cold air
will keep the temperatures below normal for the remainder of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

VFR conditions expected to prevail thru the forecast valid period.
Unseasonably warm and moist southerly flow will continue across
the area tonight and Sunday. A cold front will move slowly east
and will approach the KRSL/KGBD terminals by Sunday afternoon.
Isolated convection is possible near the front and will show VCTS
after 15z Sunday morning. Otherwise, a diurnal cumulus field is
expected once again across the area on Sunday.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    70  89  68  81 /  10  10  30  50
Hutchinson      68  87  67  78 /  10  20  40  60
Newton          68  88  67  80 /   0  10  30  50
ElDorado        68  88  67  82 /   0  10  10  50
Winfield-KWLD   68  89  68  83 /   0  10  10  50
Russell         70  83  62  68 /  20  50  70  80
Great Bend      68  84  62  69 /  10  40  60  80
Salina          71  89  67  77 /  10  20  50  60
McPherson       68  87  66  77 /  10  20  40  60
Coffeyville     68  90  68  87 /   0  10   0  20
Chanute         67  89  67  85 /   0  10  10  20
Iola            67  88  67  85 /   0  10  10  30
Parsons-KPPF    68  90  68  86 /   0  10   0  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...KED



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