Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 120825
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
325 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE TRACKING OVER NORTHERN WY/WESTERN SD. THE
STRONG COLD FRONT THAT CAME THROUGH WED IS NOW SITUATED DOWN
ACROSS THE TX COAST WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR
SPILLING-IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN AFFECTING NW KS EARLY THIS
MORNING WHICH IS SITUATED UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
VERY STRONG UPPER JET. IN ADDITION...A TIGHT MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE IS SITUATED THROUGH THIS SAME AREA ALONG WITH SOME ISENTROPIC
LIFT IN THE 325-315K LAYER. THIS AREA OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK EAST THIS MORNING WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
AFFECTING MAINLY CENTRAL KS...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE UPPER
DYNAMICS. BY THIS AFTERNOON ONLY FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS
WILL BE AFFECTED...WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 00Z. THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A COUPLE RECORD LOWS IN JEOPARDY.
THIS AIRMASS WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST WHICH WILL KEEP HIGHS SAT
FROM GETTING OUT OF THE 60S. A BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW IS
ANTICIPATED FOR SUN AS THE UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS SUN TO APPROACH THE
80 DEGREE MARK.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON TRACKING SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT OF
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY
MON AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO SLIDE THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA FOR MON THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH PRECIP CHANCES
TIED TO THIS FRONT. THIS AIRMASS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS COLD AS
THE ONE CURRENTLY OVER US BUT WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM REACHING
SEASONAL NORMALS. THERE IS AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS THAT A
PATTERN CHANGE WILL COMMENCE BY MID WEEK WITH SOME RIDGING BUILDING
OVER THE ROCKIES.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

CURRENT MOSAIC RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EASTWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS KANSAS. THE MAIN
AVIATION CONCERN REMAINS IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS...ALONG
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTRIBUTES TO LOWERING CIGS AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
CONFIDENCE STILL REMAINS LOW IN RAIN SHOWERS MAKING IT TO THE KCNU
TERMINAL AS MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT DECREASES THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO DROP DOWN FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.

JMR


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    60  41  66  51 /  40  10   0  10
HUTCHINSON      56  38  66  50 /  50  10   0  10
NEWTON          57  38  66  50 /  40  10   0  10
ELDORADO        59  40  66  50 /  40  10   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   61  42  67  53 /  40  10   0  10
RUSSELL         54  36  66  47 /  60   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      54  37  66  49 /  60   0  10  10
SALINA          55  38  65  47 /  50  10   0  10
MCPHERSON       56  37  66  49 /  50  10   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     64  43  67  52 /  30  10   0  10
CHANUTE         62  39  66  48 /  30  10   0  10
IOLA            62  38  65  48 /  30  10   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    64  41  66  51 /  30  10   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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