Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 030850
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
350 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

TODAY...CONVECTION WELL NORTH OF CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...AS IT
CONTINUES TO ROLL EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG LOW-MID LEVEL THETAE
GRADIENT THAT IS SKIRTING PERIPHERY OF H5 RIDGE AXIS. THOUGH MESO
MODELS DEPICTING DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX ACROSS KANAS...NOT
EXPECTING ANY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD DEVELOPMENT INTO CWA THIS
MORNING GIVEN STOUT 12-16C H7 THERMAL RIDGE ORIENTED FROM EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. EVIDENT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT
PRESENT...AND COULD BE A FACTOR FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG
PERIPHERY OF AFOREMENTIONED H7 CAP LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS. FOR NOW...KEPT FORECAST
DRY...AS SUCH REMOVED POPS FROM FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON. FOR TEMPERATURES...PRONOUNCED H8 THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS KANSAS FOR TODAY...AND EXPECT MIXING UP TO AT
LEAST H8. EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES TO BE AT OR SLIGHT WARMER THAN
THOSE SEEN ON TUESDAY.

BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING INTO CWA LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF NORTHERN ROCKIES
SUPPRESSES H5 HEIGHT FIELD SLIGHTLY...WITH A CORRESPONDING
DECREASE IN H7 TEMPERATURES. AREA OF ENHANCED MOIST FLUX COULD
ALLOW SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO LLJ AXIS.
WENT AHEAD AND BROADBRUSHED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS...BUT THINK ITS UNLIKELY TO SEE CONVECTION PUSHING ANY
FURTHER SOUTH THAN US 50 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...ANOTHER POSSIBLE
ROUND OF LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY...AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SUPPRESSES H5 HEIGHTS AND
DRIVES SURFACE BOUNDARY OFF HIGH PLAINS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. COULD
SEE STRONG CONVECTION IN CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG BOUNDARY. BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY INTO FRIDAY...SO COULD SEE A REPEAT
OF CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY APPEAR SEASONABLE...WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHT WARMER
THURSDAY.

SF

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT GEFS SHOWING SOME FLATTENING OF RIDGE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS POTENT SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS CANADA DEEPENS PERSISTENT
EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH. SOME SYNCING OF CANADIAN SHORTWAVE AND
WESTERN U.S. CLOSE LOW AS WELL. AS SUCH EXPECT COOLING TREND AND
PERHAPS BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SF

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF OF THE CONVECTION OVER
KANSAS WHICH SEEMS TO BE IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO
STAY MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT LOW-MID CLOUDS
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 00Z. DO KEEP THE SCATTERED CHANCE OF
MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AGAIN.

BILLINGS WRIGHT


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    89  69  90  68 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      90  68  90  68 /  10  20  10  20
NEWTON          87  68  89  68 /  10  20  20  20
ELDORADO        87  68  88  68 /  10  20  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  70  90  68 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         88  68  90  66 /  10  40  20  30
GREAT BEND      88  68  90  66 /  10  30  20  20
SALINA          86  69  89  68 /  10  40  30  30
MCPHERSON       88  68  89  68 /  10  30  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     85  70  87  69 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         84  67  87  69 /  10  10  20  20
IOLA            84  67  86  69 /  10  10  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    84  69  87  69 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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