Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 052351
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
651 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
SATURDAY-MONDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING.

A HIGH AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE PROGRESSING OVER MID-AMERICA
WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN RESPONSE
TO AN APPROACHING DEEP WESTERN CONUS TROUGH ALONG WITH THE
INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS WILL HELP BOOST DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE
MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE 1ST OF A COUPLE SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED TO
EJECT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE BASE OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH BY
AFTERNOON...DEEPENING THE SURFACE LOW AND SHARPENING A DRYLINE
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH THE FRONT LIKELY STALLING
OVER FAR NORTHERN KS/SOUTHERN NE BY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE RETURN
WILL BE MARGINAL ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...STUNTED BY PERSISTENT
LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
HOWEVER...THINKING BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS REACHING THE 50S ARE
REASONABLE...YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG...AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KTS SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS. THINKING STORM
INITIATION IS MOST LIKELY NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT IN THE VICINITY OF
NORTHWEST AND POSSIBLY WESTERN KS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY PROBABLY
CONGEALING INTO A COMPLEX OR TWO AS IT PROGRESSES EAST/SOUTHEAST
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN...CENTRAL
AND EAST-CENTRAL KS. HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD TEND TO WANE
WITH EASTERN EXTENT AS INSTABILITY DROPS OFF.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE 2ND IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ONTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY. GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST
DRYLINE SHOULD MIX A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM
(ALTHOUGH NAM IS QUITE A BIT FURTHEST WEST)...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS LIKELY INCREASING TO AT LEAST NEAR 60F BY PEAK HEATING
SUNDAY. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF GFS/ECMWF COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE SLOWER/FURTHER WEST NAM. THE ASSOCIATED
INCREASED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH CONTINUED NEAR 50 KTS OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...WITH INITIATION PROBABLY
SOMEWHERE WEST/SOUTHWEST OF I-135/35 CORRIDOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
DETAILS ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF VARIOUS FEATURES AND
ORIENTATION AND MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR VALUES...ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE QUALITY REMAIN IN QUESTION...BUT OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS
DECENT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING. AS THINGS
CURRENTLY STAND...THINKING HIGHEST PROBABILITY WILL BE GENERALLY
ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS...WITH MAIN THREATS LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. HOWEVER...IF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE QUALITY INCREASES...TORNADO THREAT WILL
INCREASE AS WELL. STAY TUNED.

THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY EJECT NORTHEAST ONTO THE PLAINS
MONDAY...PUSHING THE WARM SECTOR MAINLY EAST OF THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEAST KS MAY STILL BE UNDER THE
GUN FOR SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS NEXT CHANCE FOR STORMS COULD ARRIVE FOR MAINLY FAR
EASTERN/SOUTHEAST KS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS HIGH BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLES
REGARDING LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

ALL AREAS WL RMN VFR THRU FRI NGT & LKLY BYD WITH CLDS AT OR ABOVE
13,000FT. WINDS THAT ARE E-SE <10KTS OVERNGT WL BECOME DUE SLY FRI
MRNG & INCR 14-17Z W/ GREATEST INCR IN CNTRL & SC KS WHERE 22-26KT
GUSTS (25-30MPH) ARE LKLY FROM 18Z ONWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    51  84  60  85 /   0   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      51  85  61  85 /   0   0   0  10
NEWTON          51  84  60  84 /   0   0   0  10
ELDORADO        51  83  60  83 /   0   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   51  83  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         53  86  60  84 /   0   0  10  20
GREAT BEND      53  87  61  84 /   0   0   0  20
SALINA          50  84  60  85 /   0   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       50  85  61  85 /   0   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     49  81  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         48  81  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            48  81  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    48  81  58  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...EPS



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