Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 182018
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
318 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Mild and windy through Saturday, good chance of thunderstorms
Saturday afternoon-night, cooler and dry Sunday and beyond.

Could see some patchy fog late tonight into early Thursday
generally along/northwest of Great Bend to Salina, as boundary
layer decouples along a stalled surface trough. Marginal dewpoint
depressions should limit any patchy fog to low-lying and/or
sheltered areas though.

Otherwise, increasingly breezy south winds expected Thursday in
response to strengthening lee troughing. Degree of mixing in
concert with progged low-level thicknesses will support highs in
the low 80s most areas, about 10-15 degrees above seasonal
normals.

Friday will be very windy, as low pressure continues to deepen
across the High Plains. Mixing and pressure gradient progs suggest
a wind advisory will likely be needed, especially northwest of
the Kansas Turnpike, with southerly gusts likely exceeding 35-40
kts for some areas. Additionally, cannot rule out a few stray
showers/thunderstorms anytime Friday through Friday night, as a
"lead" upper wave approaches from the southwest amidst
increasingly deep warm advection and moisture transport. Not
expecting widespread activity though.

Decent chance of thunderstorms arrives Saturday afternoon-night,
especially along/southeast of the Kansas Turnpike corridor, as an
amplified upper trough and associated strong cold front approach
from the west and northwest, respectively. Models have come into
better agreement surrounding timing and amplitude of synoptic
features. Instability probably won`t be overly impressive (MLCAPES
around 1500 j/kg) due to the possibility of extensive low clouds
limiting insolation, but strong frontal forcing in conjunction
with 30-40 kts of deep layer shear should promote a handful of
strong to severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds
through about mid-evening. The deep layer shear vectors are
oriented more parallel to the front and the forcing is strong,
which should support closely packed storms and rapid storm
mergers, which will tend to limit the overall severe threat.
Activity should exit southeast Kansas after midnight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Some uncertainty on the large scale pattern next week, with the
GFS and ECMWF and associated ensembles supporting deep long wave
troughing across the eastern half of the CONUS, while the GEM is
the outlier creating a cutoff low across Mid- America. The latter
would favor increased clouds/precipitation chances through early
week. Am tending to ignore the GEM solution for now given lack of
other model/ensemble support. That said, model/ensemble consensus
supports a return to near normal temperatures in the 60s next week
with lows in the 40s, as deep northwest flow dominates across the
Heartland supporting dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Aviation concerns are expected to remain minimal through the next
24 hours.

Shortwave energy extends from Manitoba down into the Middle
Mississippi Valley. Only some high clouds are associated with this
feature. At the surface, a cold front extends from northern MN
into northern Nebraska with a pre-frontal trough stretching from
southern Nebraska into western KS. This feature may flip winds
around to the northwest and briefly to the northeast late this
afternoon into the evening hours across central KS, but will
remain on the light side. Confidence is high that VFR conditions
will remain in place through this TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Strong and gusty south winds will favor elevated fire danger
across the region Thursday, but especially Friday when winds will
be strongest. The greatest concern is for fine fuels (i.e.
grasses) greater than 80-90 percent cured.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    50  80  57  76 /   0   0   0  10
Hutchinson      48  80  57  75 /   0   0   0  10
Newton          51  78  56  75 /   0   0   0  10
ElDorado        50  79  56  76 /   0   0   0  10
Winfield-KWLD   51  80  57  76 /   0   0   0  10
Russell         46  81  58  77 /   0   0   0  10
Great Bend      46  80  58  77 /   0   0   0  10
Salina          48  81  58  77 /   0   0   0  10
McPherson       48  80  57  75 /   0   0   0  10
Coffeyville     50  82  54  76 /   0   0   0  10
Chanute         50  81  54  76 /   0   0   0  10
Iola            50  80  54  76 /   0   0   0  10
Parsons-KPPF    50  80  54  76 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...ADK



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