Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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373
FXUS63 KICT 201148
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
648 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Forecast highlights: May finally be getting into a wet pattern
starting mid-late this week, and possibly persisting well into
next week.

During the night, a broad but intense mid-upper trof has been
moving east across Southern Canada while a cold front curved from
along the IA/MO border, through extreme Northern KS, to the West-
Central KS/ East-Central CO border. As the mid-upper trof crosses
Ontario, the cold front will move slowly SE across most of KS. As
the mid-upper trof crosses Ontario, the front should decelerate as
it approaches Southeast & South-Central KS. This would set up a
fairly tight temperature gradient across KICT Country with highs
across Southern KS reaching the mid-upper 80s while Central KS
reaches the mid 70s where northeast 10-15 mph winds would prevail.
In Southeast KS, where southerly winds would prevail, record
highs are likely. The inherited forecast covers this scenario so
no changes are required.

The afore-mentioned cold front will stall as it ventures SE into
OK. The NE 10-20 mph winds spreading across KICT Country would
result in cooler weather with lows in the 40s ticketed for Central
KS. The greatest isentropic ascent will occur across Central and
Western Nebraska & Northwest KS & as such the chances for light
rain would occur NW of the CWA.

Much cooler weather expected Tuesday, with highs in the 50s and
60s, as Canadian high pressure builds in from the north. May see
scattered light precipitation over southeast Kansas Tuesday, and
scattered areawide Tuesday night through Wednesday, as weak
warm/moist advection persists north of a stalled frontal zone.
Signal looks pretty weak so suspect most areas will remain dry.
With cooler Canadian air being stubborn to vacate northward in
concert with cloudy skies will support continued cooler
temperatures in the 50s Wednesday, which is actually close to
seasonal normals.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Expecting areas of drizzle to develop Wednesday night and
Thursday morning, along with perhaps a few showers/thunderstorms,
as strong warm/moist advection commences ahead of an approaching
powerful shortwave. Stout/gusty south winds expected Thursday-
Thursday night as low pressure strengthens over the High Plains.
Shower/thunderstorm chances look to increase Thursday night and
Friday immediately ahead of the approaching shortwave. Despite
strong forcing and associated strong wind fields aloft, widespread
severe weather appears unlikely given meager moisture return and
subsequent instability. However, a handful of strong to perhaps a
few marginally severe storms are possible Thursday evening into
Friday. Precipitation should linger into Friday night/early
Saturday as the storm system departs to the east. Strong northwest
winds expected Friday night-early Saturday in wake of departing
system.

Despite some model variability, overall medium range consensus
suggests increasing rain/storm chances late Sunday, and again
early to mid next week, as a duo of deep shortwaves approach from
the west. Specifics on severe weather potential remain unclear
this far out given model uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 647 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

At TAF issuance a SE-movg cdfnt xtndd fm xtrm NE KS, to just E of
KRSL to SW KS. The front wl move slowly SE thrut the day, perhaps
entering SE KS late this aftn. Wl be watching for BR development
alg the front. So far only KHUT has rptd BR & only briefly. As the
cdfnt conts its SE journey, NE winds may reach ~13kts sustained &
would maintain these velocities well into the eve. The front would
decelerate as it crosses the KS/OK bdr this eve. All areas wl
remain VFR w/ cldns primarily of a Cirriform variant.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 332 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Greatest potential for widespread very high grassland fire danger
Thursday and Friday.

Another warm and dry day today, although winds should be much
lighter, with most areas under 15 mph. Winds will increase above
15 mph for most areas Tuesday, allowing for low-end very high
grassland fire danger despite cooler temperatures and higher
humidity. Cooler weather and winds under 15 mph continue for
Wednesday. Grassland fire danger looks to substantially increase
Thursday and possibly Friday, as strong south winds increase
ahead of an approaching storm system. The possibility of drizzle
Wed night into Thu morning along with higher relative humidities
through Thu may be enough to prevent extreme/critical fire
danger. Showers/thunderstorm possible Thu evening into Fri.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 332 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Record highs for today are the following:

Wichita 87 in 1907
Chanute 82 in 1953
Russell 85 in 1953
Salina  86 in 1934

Thinking Chanute and possibly Wichita has the greatest potential
to flirt with their record for today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    84  53  63  42 /   0   0  10  10
Hutchinson      81  50  60  40 /   0   0  10  20
Newton          82  51  59  39 /   0   0  10  10
ElDorado        84  54  62  41 /   0   0  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   86  55  67  44 /   0   0  10  10
Russell         75  44  56  36 /   0   0  10  30
Great Bend      77  45  57  36 /   0   0  10  30
Salina          77  48  58  38 /   0   0  10  20
McPherson       79  48  59  38 /   0   0  10  20
Coffeyville     87  57  71  45 /   0   0  20  30
Chanute         85  55  64  42 /   0   0  20  20
Iola            85  54  62  41 /   0   0  20  20
Parsons-KPPF    86  56  68  45 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS/ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...EPS
FIRE WEATHER...ADK
CLIMATE...ADK



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