Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 220439
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1139 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

A trough is situated from Hudson Bay and stretching southwest to
the Plains. This trough will move southeast tonight into Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

There has break in the rainfall across most of eastern Kansas.
The next round on the wrap around from the low is beginning to
move in and will continue to so this evening into overnight.
Additional rainfall totals could amount to 0.5 of an inch to 1.5
inches with the higher values possible in southeast Kansas. Since
the rainfall amounts across most of the areas in the Flood Watch
have not panned out as high as initially expected, most of the
counties were taken out of the watch. Counties in the furthest
southeast corner of the state have had decent rainfall totals with
an inch since 7am this morning in a couple of locations with over
2 inches in roughly the last 12 hours. Thus the watch was
maintained for these areas despite minimal reports of flooding in
all but Cherokee County so far. Please see the Flood Watch
statement for further details. This next round will go through
fairly quickly with models in their reflectivity fields
indicating a complete exit of the state late tonight.

The remainder of the weekend is fairly quiet other than low
temperatures on Saturday night into Sunday morning dropping to the
upper 30s. Given the warm spring and planting that has occurred
already, the patchy frost was maintained in the grids. A gradual
warming trend is in store through the weekend into the start of
next week.

Another trough will move in from the Rockies on Monday into
Tuesday. Increased wind speeds on Monday are going to be the main
part of this time period. The CONSMOS does indicate higher wind
speeds than the rest of the models which is not surprising as it
has done so for most of the spring and had a better handle on such
days.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

A more pronounced trough is anticipated to move through on
Thursday into next weekend which would bring a better chance for
thunderstorm activity. This system is peaking the interest meter
somewhat with a surge of instability and moisture transport values
on Thursday according to both the GFS and ECMWF. Bulk shear is
higher for Friday night. However, it is still far too early to get
excited about the potential for anything.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Main aviation concern will be some lingering MVFR ceilings.

Water vapor imagery continues to show upper impulse tracking over
eastern KS. Wrap around rainfall will continue to impact eastern
KS for the rest of tonight with KCNU-KSLN having the best chance
to see something more than just VCSH. This wave looks to be moving
faster than previously thought with most of precip out of area by
sunrise, with the exception of KCNU where precip may linger a bit
longer. Will hold onto some MVFR ceilings at a few sites for the
next few hours, but should see mostly VFR conditions by 09z.
Should also start to see some sun by early Sat afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

A Flood Watch remains in effect across the furthest southeast
corner counties of Kansas given the higher rainfall totals of
roughly two inches in the last 12 hours. Additional rainfall
could very well bring flooding to these areas. The rivers and the
creeks are on the rise with flooding anticipated specifically on
the Neosho River. If you encounter flooded roadways, remember to
Turn Around Don`t Drown.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    42  56  38  67 /  50  20   0   0
Hutchinson      41  56  37  68 /  40  20   0   0
Newton          42  55  37  66 /  70  30   0   0
ElDorado        43  56  38  67 /  70  30   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   43  55  38  68 /  40  20   0   0
Russell         39  59  36  70 /  40   0   0   0
Great Bend      39  58  36  70 /  30  10   0   0
Salina          41  59  38  69 /  60  10   0   0
McPherson       41  56  37  67 /  50  20   0   0
Coffeyville     46  54  39  68 /  50  30  10   0
Chanute         44  54  39  67 /  80  40  10   0
Iola            44  54  38  67 /  80  40  10   0
Parsons-KPPF    45  53  39  68 /  60  40  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ095-096-099-100.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VJP
SHORT TERM...VJP
LONG TERM...VJP
AVIATION...RBL
HYDROLOGY...VJP



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