Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 141201
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
701 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

The challenge for the first period will again be the timing of
the frontal passage creating a tricky temperature and
precipitation forecast for today and overnight tonight. Water
Vapor imagery again shows the Gulf of Mexico closed off but a
decent moisture train from the New Mexico and far west Texas. This
will be the primary source of moisture for the region and will
allow the a much better moisture transport set up for the region
than yesterday. The frontal system that moved into the region
yesterday has retreated to the north and west. This front will get
a push as an upper level trough comes into phase with the surface
front. This set up will allow the front to progress through the
state. Forcing and instability head of the todayfront and upper
level dynamics are conducive to thunderstorm development during
the day and into the overnight hours. Some of this thunderstorm
activity could be severe with large hail and strong winds during
the later afternoon and evening hours. The positive tilt to the
upper level trough will keep the front progressive as it moves
through the state. As such, residence time of the severe
thunderstorm activity and heavy rain will be kept to minimum
keeping the flash flooding threat low. As the front passes, the
winds will pick up rapidly to advisory level generally along and
west of turnpike. These winds are expected to last into the early
morning hours. Skies will clear rapidly as the winds pick up as
high pressure builds into the region.

Sunday through Monday night, high pressure will dominate the
region and northerly flow. This will keep the temperatures below
normal for through Monday night with a chance for some light frost
over the parts Central Kansas Monday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Long range weather looks rather quiet through Friday. High
pressure will dominate the region for the most part and
temperatures will recover some to near or just above normal
levels. Precipitation chances look to remain low until next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 659 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Challenging forecast with LIFR in the vicinity of KRSL and KGBD
which should improve fairly quickly. Elevated showers and/or
thunderstorms will be possible at KICT/KHUT/KSLN for the first few
hours of the forecast. Cold front will push through most areas
during the daylight hours, with very strong/gusty winds in its
wake. Chances for storms in the vicinity of front developing by
afternoon, so best chances will be at KCNU/KICT and probably
close to KHUT. Given some timing issues, have been conservative
with temporary groups for thunderstorms. -howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    81  47  64  41 /  70  70   0   0
Hutchinson      78  44  63  39 /  70  50   0   0
Newton          76  45  62  40 /  70  70   0   0
ElDorado        83  46  63  40 /  70  80   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   87  47  64  41 /  60  90   0   0
Russell         75  40  64  39 /  50  20   0   0
Great Bend      80  41  64  39 /  50  20   0   0
Salina          78  44  63  39 /  70  30   0   0
McPherson       77  44  62  39 /  70  40   0   0
Coffeyville     86  51  64  40 /  30  90  10   0
Chanute         85  49  62  40 /  50  90  10   0
Iola            85  49  62  40 /  50  90   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    86  51  63  39 /  40  90  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 1 AM CDT Sunday for
KSZ032-033-047>052-067-068-082-083-091-092.

Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ032-033-
047-048.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...ADK


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