Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
000
FXUS63 KICT 111726
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1126 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 315 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2018

A modest mid-level frontogenetical narrow band of light snow will
continue to transition eastward from central across parts of eastern
Kansas early this morning. Some patchy freezing drizzle will also
remain possible across southeast Kansas. Plan to terminate the
Winter Weather Advisory shortly after the light accumulating precip
ends across central Kansas, though an extension in time a few
hours looks warranted across southeast Kansas until around
sunrise. Otherwise, expect clearing from west to east across the
area by midday through the afternoon with the passage of the upper
trof. A warming trend will commence early this week as west-
southwest flow aloft develops downstream of a developing closed
low which becomes cut-off from the mean flow along the California
coast by Tuesday. While another surge of Arctic air will drop
south across the northern Plains tonight and Monday, it appears
the bulk of the cooling affect will stay north of Kansas.
Temperatures should be closer to seasonal normal on Monday and
then noticeably milder on Tuesday.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 315 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2018

The medium range models debate on the handling of the California cut-
off low on whether it will phase and be absorbed or kicked eastward
across the southern Plains in response to the developing northern
stream upper trof across the northern Rockies into the central
CONUS. While confidence remains fairly high for unseasonably warm
temperatures on Wednesday, the forecast with regard to temperature
trends and precip chances remains more uncertain for the end of the
week. The GFS is further east with the northern stream trof across
the Midwest and maintains a closed low over SoCal on Thursday. The
result is a quicker frontal passage and cooler air. The ECMWF
depicts more troughing across the western CONUS Wednesday night
and Thursday which would weaken and kick the California low
eastward into the Plains. This results in a frontal wave and
slower frontal passage with perhaps a slightly better chance for
precip by late Thursday. The trend by Friday should be for
generally cooler temperatures across the area though confidence on
measurable precip chances is not as high.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1117 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2018

High pressure has moved into the area. Skies have cleared for all
sites but KCNU which is on the fringe. MVFR ceilings will become
VFR in the next couple of hours. A wind directional change is
anticipated as the high settles in, but the speeds will stay
around 5 kts. KRSL and KGBD should see an increase in the winds
between 12 and 18Z on Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 315 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2018

Low to moderate grassland fire danger expected through Tuesday.
Warmer temperatures may result in elevated fire danger conditions
by Wednesday.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    36  14  41  26 /  10   0   0   0
Hutchinson      36  12  40  24 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          35  14  39  25 /  10   0   0   0
ElDorado        35  14  40  26 /  10   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   36  14  42  27 /  10   0   0   0
Russell         35  12  38  24 /   0   0  10   0
Great Bend      36  12  39  24 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          35  12  39  25 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       35  12  39  24 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     34  15  44  27 /  10   0   0   0
Chanute         34  14  41  25 /  20   0   0   0
Iola            33  14  40  25 /  20   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    34  14  43  26 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...VJP
FIRE WEATHER...KED



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.