Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 140740
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
240 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

A shortwave trough moving across the Northern Plains has resulted in
ongoing deep moist convection across south central Nebraska early
this morning. This activity may drift south into northwest & north
central KS early in the period. Convective debris may linger through
at least a portion of the day limiting insolation and possibly
impacting temperatures. However, rising heights and increasing
thickness suggests that highs will climb into the upper 80s/around
90 for many locations.

Another subtle shortwave trough approaching from the west may bring
increasing chances for deep moist convection to the area tonight.
The GFS and ECMWF are more favorable when compared to the NAM with
moisture transport/LLJ developing across south central/southeast KS
late tonight.

Tue-Wed...Mid/upper flow is progged to transition to the southwest
across the central Conus on Tue and maintained low pops across much
of the area. Better chances for deep moist convection should arrive
on Wed when a more robust mid/upper trough emerges from the central
Rockies. Seasonable temperatures are anticipated through the period
with highs in the upper 80s/around 90.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

A stable post-frontal regime is anticipated across the
area on Thu-Fri but maintained low pops across much of the area into
the weekend. Seasonably mild temperatures are anticipated through
the period with highs in the upper 80s/around 90 with lows in the
mid/upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Main Aviation Hazard: Stratus potential

Most or all of the convection occurring over the high Plains late this
evening is expected to remain to the west/northwest of central
Kansas. A small cluster of storms in south central Nebraska will
try to propagate southward overnight toward I-70 in central
Kansas, but is expected to weaken or diminish as it approaches
the central Kansas terminals (RSL,GBD). For now, have left
mention of storms out of all terminals. A light, very moist
southeasterly boundary layer should lead to a period of low
stratus late tonight into the early morning hours Monday in south-
central/southeast Kansas. Have IFR indicated at HUT and ICT, and
LIFR for a few hours at the CNU terminal where some fog is also
possible. The stratus should gradually lift, then scatter out
from mid morning through midday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    87  71  90  73 /  20  40  20  30
Hutchinson      88  70  89  71 /  20  30  20  40
Newton          87  70  88  71 /  10  40  20  40
ElDorado        87  70  87  72 /  20  40  30  30
Winfield-KWLD   87  72  90  74 /  20  50  30  30
Russell         90  69  91  69 /  10  30  20  50
Great Bend      90  69  90  69 /  10  30  20  50
Salina          91  69  90  72 /  10  30  30  50
McPherson       89  70  89  71 /  10  30  20  40
Coffeyville     86  71  88  74 /  10  50  40  20
Chanute         86  70  86  74 /  10  40  40  30
Iola            86  70  86  73 /  10  40  40  30
Parsons-KPPF    86  71  87  75 /  10  50  40  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...JMC



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