Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 171839
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
139 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue May 17 2016

The northern extent of a meso-scale convective complex over the
southern Flint Hills and southeastern Kansas early this morning,
should be clearing the southeast corner of Kansas around daybreak.
This will occur as the low-level jet veers to more southwest-
westerly, cutting off moisture transport/isentropic upglide. Would
not expect much more than a sprinkle or two this morning in the
wake of this mcs, with a weak mid-level convergence axis lingering
across Kansas. Mostly cloudy skies and northeasterly boundary
layer flow will keep high temperatures well below normal today
area-wide (near 60/lower 60s). Partial clearing may work into
central Kansas tonight, with cloudy skies lingering in the south
where boundary layer moisture is progged to remain fairly high.
Mid-level confluent flow and low-level ridging over the region on
Wednesday should result in partly sunny skies and slightly warmer
temperatures, although readings are expected to remain below
normal.

The remnants of the upper trough in the southwest are progged by
short-medium range model guidance to eject northeast across the
Central Plains Thursday into Thursday night. Marginal, but
sufficient low-mid level moisture return, in conjunction with
lift, should result in scattered to numerous light rain showers,
as this upper wave slowly moves across the region. Isolated
thunder cannot be ruled out, however even elevated instability is
progged to be very minimal at best. Increased cloud cover and rain
chances with this wave will keep highs Tuesday well below average
in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue May 17 2016

A few showers may linger Friday morning over eastern Kansas
before the shortwave trough shifts eastward into the Mid
Mississippi Valley.

An upper level ridge axis will develop across the Central Plains
this weekend, before shifting east and dampening early next week
in response to height falls ahead of the upstream western CONUS
upper trough. This will result in a decent amount of sunshine this
weekend and temperatures warming to more seasonal averages (upper
70s/lower 80s). Low-level gulf moisture/instability should surge
northward into the region Saturday night through Monday. Some
accas or isolated high-based elevated convection cannot be ruled
out Saturday night into Sunday morning (mainly along/west of
I-135) but think the majority of the weekend will be dry. Chances
for strong-severe storms Sunday pm/eve look confined to the High
Plains, closer to the dryline which the GFS and ECMWF prog near
the KS/OK border. There appears to be a chance of strong/severe
surface-based thunderstorms Monday as a strong shortwave trough
ejects northeast out of the western CONUS Upper trough, across the
northern/central High Plains, pushing the dryline a bit further
east into Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Tue May 17 2016

MVFR conditions are expected to improve to VFR during the
afternoon, with loss of ceiling around sunset. With light winds
and mainly clear skies, anticipate at least some fog, most likely
ground fog. There is considerable model discrepancy on amount of
850MB moisture tomorrow, although NAM/GFS both attempt to rotate
at least some moisture back into the area from the northeast. This
seems a bit suspicious, but if will include a scattered deck for
now. -Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    60  48  67  50 /  20  10  10  10
Hutchinson      60  46  66  47 /  20  10  10  10
Newton          60  46  66  48 /  20  10  10  10
ElDorado        59  47  66  48 /  30  10  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   59  48  67  50 /  20  10  10  10
Russell         62  43  67  46 /  10  10  10  10
Great Bend      60  43  66  46 /  10  10  10  20
Salina          62  44  68  47 /  20  10  10  10
McPherson       61  45  67  47 /  20  10  10  10
Coffeyville     60  47  68  51 /  30  10  10  10
Chanute         59  47  67  50 /  40  10  10  10
Iola            59  46  67  49 /  40  10  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    59  47  68  50 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...PJH



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