Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 241149
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
649 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

TODAY: ANOTHER DAY OF DEEP MIXING ON TAP...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER REPEAT OF TEMPERATURES NEAR THE 100 DEGREE MARK IN MOST
LOCATIONS.  HEAT INDICIES WILL FLIRT WITH 105 IN FAR SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE ELSEWHERE...BUT CURRENT THINKING
S THAT MIXING WILL OFFSET ANY ADVECTIVE INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS...THUS
WILL NOT NEED HEAD ADVISORY HEADLINE.

SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY INCREASE
BROAD-SCALE LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE WILL EDGE
SURFACE TROUGH INTO WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...WHICH WILL PROVIDE
A POOLING POINT FOR SCANT MOISTURE THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT FAIR AMOUNT OF CAPPING ACROSS BULK OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...HOWEVER CANNOT DISCOUNT ISOLATED STORM FIRING
ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 54.  CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL DIMISH BY LATE
EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND WANING DYNAMIC FORCING AS
SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO GREAT LAKES REGION.

MONDAY-TUESDAY:  H5 HEIGHTS INCREASE AS SOUTHEAST U.S. RIDGE
FLATTENS AND BUILDS WESTWARD...THIS SSHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL...HOWEVER THEY WILL BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT DUE TO
BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS.
NONETHELESS...MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S.  PRECIPITATION CHANCES DO NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BULK OF
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER WITH TROUGH/BOUNDARY LINGERING ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE.  INCREASED
POPS A BIT TUESDAY NIGHT GIVEN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY:  MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN
TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVEMENT INTO CENTRAL PLAINS. OPERATIONAL
GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE...WHILE EC/GEM
CONTINUE TO HOLD BULK OF ENERGY WEST THROUGH THURSDAY. MESOSCALE
EFFECTS LIKELY WILL DRIVE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH THAN
EITHER EC/GEM ARE DEPICTING...SO WILL NOT BE AS CONSERVATIVE WITH
POPS AS EITHER ARE DEPICTING.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE PROBLEMATIC
TOO...AS PRECIP AND TIMING OF EFFECTIVE FRONT WILL DICTATE WHETHER
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE 90S...OR BEGIN TO TREND
TO COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS TODAY AS SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH PUSH EAST OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS...POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE
ENOUGH TO CENTRAL KS...TO SHIFT WINDS MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR
KRSL.  THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALSO LEAD TO SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN
ISOLATED CONVECTION NEAR THE KRSL/KSLN AND KHUT TAFS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.  SO WILL INCLUDE A VCTS FOR THIS
CHANCE ACROSS CENTRAL KS.  COULD SEE THIS CONVECTIVE CHANCE LINGER
OVER CENTRAL KS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INCREASES ACROSS CENTRAL KS. SO WILL KEEP THE VCTS CHANCE
AROUND FOR BOTH THE KRSL AND KSLN TAFS UNTIL AT LEAST 06Z/MON.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT   101  74  99  74 /  20  20  10  10
HUTCHINSON     100  73  99  74 /  20  20  10  20
NEWTON         100  74  99  74 /  20  20  10  10
ELDORADO       100  75 100  73 /  20  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD  100  75 100  74 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         98  70  97  70 /  20  20  20  30
GREAT BEND      97  71  97  72 /  20  20  20  30
SALINA         101  73  98  73 /  20  20  20  20
MCPHERSON      100  72  98  73 /  20  20  20  20
COFFEYVILLE    100  75 101  74 /  10   0   0  10
CHANUTE        100  74 100  74 /  10  10   0  10
IOLA            99  74  99  73 /  10  10   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF   100  74 101  74 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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