Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 151940
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
240 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A
COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS INTO THIS EVENING. LIFT ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE
DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND DIURNAL HEATING. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD MID PM INTO
EARLY EVE...BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY PUSHES SOUTH OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A STRONG PULSE STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MLCAPES OF
1500-2000 J/KG BUT WEAK SHEAR OF 20-25 KNOTS. NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT...WILL USHER IN COOLER/DRIER AIR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE UPPER RIDGING SPREADS IN FROM THE
WEST ON THURSDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL RETURN WITH THE FRONT. SCATTERED STORM
CHANCES WILL EXIST NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF THE FRONTAL
ZONE...AIDED BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD WANE/END THURSDAY
AS UPPER RIDGING SPREADS OVER THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY
THURSDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE ODILE...PRESENTLY DRIFTING NORTH OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH THE GFS SHOWS SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING...BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF PROG THE REMNANTS GETTING ABSORBED INTO AN EASTWARD
MOVING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER TROUGH...HELPING TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2
INCHES OR SLIGHTLY BETTER ARE PROGGED ON THE GFS AS THE REMANTS AND
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY IN OUR FORECAST AREA FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL EVENT...WITH POCKETS OF VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE GIVEN THE TROPICAL CONNECTION. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KS AT THIS TIME. CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM KEMP TO JUST NW OF
KICT TO KPTT. LOTS OF POST FRONTAL STATUS AND MVFR CIGS AS THE
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THERE IS EVEN A
FEW REPORTS OF IFR CIGS FOR A SHORT TIME ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE COOLER AIR. EXPECT THIS MVFR CLOUD DECK TO CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTH FOR MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF THE KS TURNPIKE FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST.

AS THIS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH...850-700H FN CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO
INCREASE....ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. LOTS OF SUNSHINE OVER SE KS MAY HELP DESTABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE OF TSRA..AS FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
INCREASES.  LATEST HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGESTS A FEW SHOWERS
OR STORMS MAY GET GOING IN AND NEAR THE KCNU TAF SITE...SO WILL GO
WITH A VCTS FOR THIS TAF FOR THE 21Z-00Z/TUE TIME FRAME.

BUT ONLY A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL EXIST OVER SE KS FOR
TSRA...AS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO NORTHERN OK AFTER 23-00Z/TUE.
COULD SEE SOME LINGERING VCSH FOR THE KCNU FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ALSO NOT SURE HOW FAR BACK INTO THE COOLER AIR THE STRATUS DECK AND
MVFR CIGS WILL LAST...AS DRIER AIR TRYS TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL KS.  SO
WILL CLEAR OUT THE MVFR CIGS FOR KRSL/KSLN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    57  76  64  85 /  10  10  20  20
HUTCHINSON      55  76  63  85 /  10  10  20  20
NEWTON          54  74  62  83 /  10  10  30  20
ELDORADO        54  75  62  83 /  10  10  30  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   59  77  64  85 /  30  10  20  20
RUSSELL         51  73  62  83 /   0  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      53  74  62  85 /   0  10  20  20
SALINA          49  73  62  83 /   0  10  30  20
MCPHERSON       53  74  63  83 /  10  10  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     59  76  63  81 /  40  10  30  20
CHANUTE         55  74  60  80 /  30  10  40  20
IOLA            55  73  59  79 /  20  10  40  20
PARSONS-KPPF    58  75  61  81 /  40  10  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




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