Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 131627
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1127 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

STILL LOOKING LIKE SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE A GOOD BET
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY AS EARLY AS 1-2PM...GENERALLY ALONG/EAST
OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM WELLINGTON TO WICHITA TO HILLSBORO...AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT BLASTS SOUTHEAST. CURRENT CLOUDS ARE INHIBITING
STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND ASSOCIATED SFC-BASED INSTABILITY...BUT
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME HEATING WILL LIKELY
CONTRIBUTE UP TO 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE BY PEAK HEATING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CLOCKWISE TURNING HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTS UPDRAFT ROTATION IS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THIS
WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL (GOLFBALL-TENNIS BALL SIZE)...ALTHOUGH
LACK OF STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW AND ASSOCIATED 700-500MB SHEAR
SHOULD PREVENT GIANT HAIL FROM OCCURRING. ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO
GO LINEAR FAIRLY QUICKLY GIVEN STRONG FRONTAL FORCING...DEEP LAYER
SHEAR LARGELY ORIENTED PARALLEL TO BOUNDARY...AND FLOW ALOFT
TENDING TO BACK WITH HEIGHT. ONCE CONVECTION GOES LINEAR...HAIL
SIZE WILL TEND TO DECREASE...WITH QUARTER-GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL AND
60-70 MPH WINDS POSSIBLE. THINKING ALL ACTIVITY WILL EXIT
SOUTHEAST KS BETWEEN 7-9 PM. FURTHERMORE...CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO...ESPECIALLY INITIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
TORNADO THREAT SHOULD DECREASE ONCE ACTIVITY BEGINS TO MERGE AND
GO LINEAR.

ADK

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM IS STILL SITTING OFF OVER THE FOUR CORNER
REGION WITH AN ARM OF THE PV ANOMALY EXTENDING ACROSS KANSAS.
THIS ARM HELPED TO FIRE THE ACTIVITY ON THE FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT THIS MORNING IN AN ABUNDANTLY RICH
AIRMASS HAS CAUSED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
THE FRONT BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA FROM SALINA SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH
OF GREAT BEND. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WEATHER TODAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

THIS PERIOD REMAINS VERY ACTIVE WITH A VARIETY OF WEATHER TYPES TO
BRING HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE AREA. WILL BREAK THIS SECTION UP
BASED ON TYPE OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER VS. A NARRATIVE.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL:
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS BEEN WELL FORECASTED THE PAST FEW
DAYS AND LITTLE HAS CHANGED REGARDING THE MAIN CONCERN.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
ADVANCES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
5Z HRRR SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS UNZIPPING ALONG THE FRONT AROUND
18-20Z JUST EAST OF WICHITA...ALONG THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. THINK
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF WICHITA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR
THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH 60+ DEWPOINTS...CAPES WILL BE BETWEEN
1500-2500 J/KG. THE CAPE COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR WILL
FOSTER SEVERE STORM GROWTH WITH LARGE DAMAGING HAIL THE PRIMARY
THREAT. HAIL GREATER THAN THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND UP TO
BASEBALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WIND POTENTIAL:
STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HELP WINDS EXCEED 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 40-45 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY WAS INHERITED AND WE
EXPANDED IT FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH TO COINCIDE WITH GREATEST
PERCEIVED THREAT. ALSO EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY IN TIME TO 02Z
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT LET UP UNTIL CLOSE TO MORNING.
CONFIDENCE ON STRONGER WINDS PERSISTING PAST 02Z IS NOT HIGH...BUT
IF THEY DO COULD SEE ADVISORY EXTENDED IN TIME.

SNOW POTENTIAL:
THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TREND COLDER WITH THE AIRMASS THAT IS
FOLLOWING TODAY`S COLD FRONT. THE VERTICAL COLUMN COOLS ENOUGH SUCH
THAT SNOW IS GOING TO BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. SOUNDINGS SHOW A PROFILE COMPLETELY BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTHEAST...THUS
SNOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND TRANSITION
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE LATEST NAM SHOWS ACCUMULATIONS OF UPWARDS OF
2-3 INCHES...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THOSE AMOUNTS OCCURRING IS LOW. DO
THINK THERE COULD BE SOME ACCUMULATIONS IN CENTRAL KANSAS...MAINLY
ON GRASSY SURFACES...BUT ALSO ON THE ROADWAYS IF THE RATE IS HIGH
ENOUGH. HOWEVER...ANY ACCUMULATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL NOT LAST
VERY LONG...AS WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE IT TO MELT
QUICKLY.

FREEZE POTENTIAL:
THE COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...AND DOMINATE
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR
CENTRAL KANSAS FOR TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING FOR TEMPERATURES THAT
WILL DROP BELOW 30 DEGREES. DESPITE THE STRONGER WINDS...COLD
TEMPS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR SENSITIVE VEGETATION. CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS MEDIUM AND WENT THE WATCH ROUTE TO ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO
ADJUST IF NEEDED. THE BIGGEST CONCERN...HOWEVER...IS FOR MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING AS WIDESPREAD TEMPS BETWEEN 20-25 DEGREES
ARE EXPECTED. HAVE A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE WHOLE AREA AND
CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT THIS WILL OCCUR. TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO
COVER ANY SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

TEMPERATURES:
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGH TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A NON-
DIURNAL CURVE. HOWEVER...THE COLD AIRMASS...CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION POSSIBILITIES WILL KEEP TEMPS COLD ON MONDAY.
CURRENTLY THINK HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S AND MAY
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 40S. IF THIS HAPPENS...RECORD COOL
HIGHS MAY BE BROKEN FOR MONDAY...SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

ZONAL FLOW WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO THE UPPER AIR PATTERN...WITH
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FOR THURSDAY DRAGGING A FRONT INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND
ANOTHER COOLER AIRMASS. HAVE DROPPED MAX TEMPS FOR THURSDAY.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY...SO THINK THE PRECIPITATION WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT ON
FRIDAY...AND TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE WEEKEND TO NEAR NORMAL.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

AN UNSETTLED AVIATION FORECAST IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS
TODAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA IN SW KS BEGINS TO MOVE EAST
TODAY...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST
OF SYSTEM ACROSS SE KS FOR THE MORNING HOURS AND AGAIN FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  SO WILL GO WITH A VCTS FOR THE KCNU TAF FOR THIS
CHANCE. COULD SEE A TEMPO GROUP ADDED LATER TODAY FOR MVFR VSBYS FOR
POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THIS
AREA AS WELL.

NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
PUSH SOUTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS TODAY. COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY
PUSHED THROUGH KRSL AND KSLN AT THIS TIME...WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 35
KTS DEVELOPING.  EXPECT THIS FRONT TO PUSH INTO KHUT/KICT BY AROUND
16-19Z WITH A DRAMATIC WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. COULD SEE SOME
POST FRONTAL SHRA/-RA AND MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH AND THE COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.

COULD SEE THE RAIN POSSIBLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS FOR ALL THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR
KCNU BY AROUND 09Z/MON. AS THIS SNOW CHANCE DEVELOPS...COULD SEE
SOME CIGS FLIRT WITH IFR ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS.

KETCHAM


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS VERY HIGH THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE
MOST CONCERNING PERIOD IS THAT BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. AFTER
THAT TIME...THE FIRE DANGER WILL DIMINISH. THE DRY AIR AIRMASS
WILL CAUSE EXTREME FIRE DANGER TO BE A CONCERN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND CURED FUELS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

RECORD COOL HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY APRIL 14TH, 2014

COOLEST HIGH RECORDS
WICHITA....45 DEGREES IN 1928
CHANUTE....47 DEGREES IN 1983
RUSSELL....44 DEGREES IN 1993
SALINA.....44 DEGREES IN 1993

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  34  43  24 /  40  40  50   0
HUTCHINSON      71  31  44  24 /  40  60  30   0
NEWTON          77  31  42  24 /  40  40  40   0
ELDORADO        78  33  42  25 /  60  40  50   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   82  36  44  25 /  60  40  40   0
RUSSELL         55  29  46  23 /  60  60  10   0
GREAT BEND      56  28  46  22 /  60  60  20   0
SALINA          66  31  46  23 /  50  60  20   0
MCPHERSON       70  30  44  24 /  50  60  20   0
COFFEYVILLE     79  38  45  26 /  80  50  50   0
CHANUTE         78  36  44  24 /  80  40  50   0
IOLA            75  36  43  24 /  80  40  50   0
PARSONS-KPPF    79  37  45  24 /  80  50  50   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>052-
067-068-082-083-091-092.

FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR KSZ032-
033-047>051.

&&

$$







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