Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 171959
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
259 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

Water vapor imagery shows some upper energy approaching the
northern Rockies with what looks like a southern stream impulse
approaching sw TX. However, much of what is down across TX looks
convectively induced. With convection going down near and just
south of the Red River, surface features are tough to pin down,
with a front/outflow somewhere close to where the storms are
ongoing.

Will maintain some very small chances for showers and storms over
central KS late tonight into Tue morning as mid level warm
advection and isentropic lift along the 310k surface increases.
Confidence is high that we are not looking at any kind of
widespread convection and likely just some iso stuff if anything
develops. Upper pattern will flatten out on Tue which will allow
the warm front to lift north with a good chance of storms Tue
night over Nebraska as shortwave energy approaches from the
central Rockies.

This feature will push a sharp cold front through
the forecast area Wed afternoon through Wed night. Just like Sat
night, storms should develop along this front late Wed
afternoon/early evening and push southeast through the overnight
hours. Main threats still look like hail, winds and heavy rain.
Best tor threat would be due to landspout processes along the front
early in the event, but looks like a short-lived threat.

Storms are expected to be pushing into far southern/southeast KS
Thu morning and south of the CWA by early Thu afternoon. Will see
above normal highs both Tue and Wed before the front comes through
Wed night.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

Pattern will remain very progressive with GFS and ECMWF agreeing
in bringing another shortwave out of the Rockies and out into the
high Plains by Fri afternoon. This feature will spread widespread
rainfall from Friday afternoon through Sat night for much of KS,
northern OK along with southern Nebraska. Without having time to
get back into some return flow, this feature will have limited
moisture to work with, so not expecting severe storms with this
feature, with heavy rain being the main threat.

By 12z Sun, shortwave will be approaching the Ohio Valley with the
warp around precip on the backside of this system pushing east
across the Ozark region. Even though we should see plenty of Sun
on Sunday, below normal temps also look likely.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

Residual low-level moisture with weak to moderate mid-level lapse
rates should lead to scattered VFR cumulus decks this afternoon.
Relatively light easterly winds this afternoon, will become more
southerly from west to east Tonight into Tuesday morning across
central/eastern Kansas. Gusts of 20-25 knots will be possible in
central Kansas mid-late Tuesday morning, as boundary layer mixing
increases. MVFR/IFR stratus will likely develop late Tonight,
initiated via upslope and lowering boundary layer dewpoint
depressions. The stratus is projected to linger into Tuesday
morning, with some improvement in ceiling heights in central
Kansas between 15-18Z but likely still MVFR range. Marginal signal
for elevated convection in the 09Z-15Z period in Central KS,
near/north of Interstate 70. Confidence in development/coverage
affecting RSL, GBD, SLN is too low to mention this far out with
probabilities appearing relatively higher just northwest/north of
I-70.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    74  61  80  62 /  10  10  10   0
Hutchinson      73  60  80  62 /   0  10  10  10
Newton          73  61  79  61 /   0  10  10  10
ElDorado        74  61  79  62 /  10  10  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   73  60  80  63 /  10  10  10   0
Russell         70  60  81  61 /  10  20  20  10
Great Bend      70  60  81  61 /  10  20  10  10
Salina          74  60  80  64 /   0  10  20  20
McPherson       74  61  80  62 /   0  10  10  10
Coffeyville     73  59  80  62 /  10  10  10   0
Chanute         73  59  79  62 /  10  10  10   0
Iola            73  58  78  62 /  10  10  10   0
Parsons-KPPF    73  59  79  62 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...JMC



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