Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 250008
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
708 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

STARTING TO LOOK LIKE WE MAYBE DONE WITH CONVECTION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

STORMS THAT DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL KS HAVE
RACED OFF INTO NORTHEAST KS. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE HAS NOW SET-IN
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS WHICH IS EVIDENT BY CU RAPIDLY DISSIPATING ALONG
THE DRYLINE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS. THE EXCEPTION MAYBE FAR
NORTHEAST KS AFTER 04Z AS THE FRONT STARTS TO PUSH SOUTHEAST. SO
FOR NOW REDUCED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY AND WILL START TO CHAT WITH SPC
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ABOUT CANCELING SOME OF THE WATCH EARLY.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT:
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. A DRYLINE WILL BECOME
BETTER FOCUSED BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM CENTRAL KANSAS
TO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE
DRYLINE...WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS PROVIDING
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ASCENT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH AND
INCREASING DRYLINE CONVERGENCE...SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD EVOLVE EASTWARD INTO THE FLINT HILLS
BEFORE WEAKENING LATER THIS EVENING. EXPECTING THE GREATER STORM
COVERAGE IN CENTRAL-EAST CENTRAL KS INTO THE FLINT HILLS...WITH
ANY STORMS FURTHER SOUTH MORE ISOLATED. LARGE HAIL OF 1 TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN
THREATS...WITH LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT:
A TRAILING...PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
SOUTHWARD...STALLING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
WILL LIKELY KEEP THIS BOUNDARY DORMANT VIA CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.
THE BOUNDARY MAY LIFT NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STRONG UPPER TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LOW PROBABILITIES OF STORMS (20-25%) WILL EXIST NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER MAY KEEP
THE AREA CAPPED TO EVEN ELEVATED CONVECTION.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT:

THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF A POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT
SEVERE WEATHER DAY ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS. A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...IN A NEGATIVELY-TILTED FASHION...AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET
STREAK (~70 KNOTS) ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE WARM FRONT IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHWARD OF INTERSTATE 70 BY MIDDAY...ALLOWING A
MOIST...VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF KANSAS. THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
ON THE EXACT POSITIONINGS OF SURFACE/UPPER AIR FEATURES TUESDAY
PM/EVE. FORECAST CONTINUITY WOULD KEEP THE DRYLINE...EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD FROM A TRIPLE POINT IN NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...PERHAPS
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR (OR SLIGHTLY WEST) INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. MLCAPES OF 3,000-4,000 J/KG ARE LIKELY IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND MID 60S TO NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS.
CONSIDERABLE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND THE STRONG MID-LEVEL JET
STREAK NOSING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION...SHOULD ALLOW THE CAP
TO BREAK TOWARD MID-LATE AFTERNOON...WITH INITIAL STORM UPDRAFT
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY TO BE EXPLOSIVE (GIVEN THERMAL PROFILES).
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTORS SPREADING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WOULD FAVOR ISOLATED-WIDELY SEPARATED DISCRETE
SUPERCELL-TYPE STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. A 50 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY
EVENING...AND STORM COVERAGE MAY INCREASE INTO AN MCS BY MID-LATE
TUESDAY EVENING IN THE WARM SECTOR. ALTHOUGH SOME MODEL
DISPARITIES CONTINUE TO EXIST AND FORECAST DETAILS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE REFINED LEADING UP TO TUESDAY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
TO SEVERAL HIGH-END SEVERE REPORTS (VERY LARGE HAIL, TORNADOES,
DAMAGING WINDS) ESPECIALLY IN APPROXIMATELY THE 20Z-03Z TIME-
FRAME.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
THE NEGATIVELY-TILTED STRONG UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...IS PROGGED TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE CORNBELT (IOWA/EASTERN NEBRASKA) BY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY PUSH THE DRYLINE EASTWARD OUT
OF EASTERN KANSAS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS THERE MAY BE A FEW RESIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS
UNDERNEATH THE MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET. SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR
SHOULD INFILTRATE THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH RELOADING OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES BEHIND THE MIDWEEK DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. A
SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF THIS NEXT UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EJECT OUT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD FRIDAY/SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
THE EXACT EVOLUTION IS UNCERTAIN AND THERE ARE SOME PRECIPITATION
TIMING CONCERNS...IT APPEARS RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD
INTO KANSAS AHEAD OF THIS NEXT TROUGH. THEREFORE...WE EXPECT CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS (SOME STRONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL)...TO INCREASE
TOWARD FRIDAY/SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK NEAR SEASONAL
DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE LOW CLOUDS EARLY MON MORNING.

STORMS HAVE PUSHED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH LITTLE IF ANY
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INCREASING LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS GETTING
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS AFTER 09Z. CONFIDENCE AT WHAT LEVEL THEY
COME IN AT IS FAIRLY LOW. FOR NOW WILL ONLY MENTION IFR AT KICT
AND KHUT FOR MON MORNING.

LAWSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

DESPITE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
AND THE FLINT HILLS...THE RECENT GREEN-UP AND HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL KEEP THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER BELOW ELEVATED LEVELS.
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW MONDAY-TUESDAY AS
WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    59  80  63  83 /  20  10  20  40
HUTCHINSON      55  79  58  81 /  20  10  20  40
NEWTON          57  79  60  81 /  20  10  20  40
ELDORADO        58  79  62  81 /  20  20  20  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   60  79  65  82 /  20  20  20  40
RUSSELL         49  77  53  78 /  10   0  20  40
GREAT BEND      50  78  54  79 /  10  10  20  30
SALINA          55  79  56  80 /  30  10  20  40
MCPHERSON       55  79  57  81 /  20  10  20  40
COFFEYVILLE     61  79  65  81 /  20  20  20  30
CHANUTE         60  78  64  80 /  20  20  20  30
IOLA            59  77  63  80 /  20  20  20  30
PARSONS-KPPF    60  78  65  81 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ049-051>053-
068>071-083-092>094.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RBL
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...JMC



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