Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 171110
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
610 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

The weak cold front that has been discussed the past couple days
extends from the Nebraska/IA state line, to along the NW corridor
of KICT Country, to the OK Panhandle. SE of the front south winds
from 10 to 20 mph are producing a warm night as evidenced by 2 AM
temperatures from 55 to 60. The warmer temperatures were in South-
east KS where 20 to 25 mph gusts continued.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 610 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

This Morning:
Dense fog that has developed along a SE-moving cold front isn`t as
transient as thought. With visibilities less than 1/4 mile in many
areas, have decided to issue a Dense Fog Advisory for all of South-
Central KS until 10 AM CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

Today:
The weak cold front will continue it`s SE journey & as it ventures
across KS it`ll encounter a richer & fairly well-defined moisture
channel extending from North TX to Northeast KS. In fact, stratus is
streaming almost due N across Eastern KS. Respectable mixing will
prevent fog formation but the "elevated" lower-deck moisture deepens
& as such drizzle & perhaps some light rain would develop across
Southeast KS. Light rain/showers would be the precipitation mode as
the front approaches this afternoon. Temperatures will be somewhat
challenging. A warm start coupled with some compressional warming
dictated raising highs across South-Central & Southeast KS into the
mid 70s with OK-bordering counties at the warmer end of the thermal
spectrum.

This Weekend:
It`ll turn much cooler tonight as a fairly sharp inverted surface
ridge punches almost due S. Reaching KS late tonight, winds would
become light easterly & with clear skies lows would range from near
35 in Central KS to the lower 40s across Southern KS. It`ll get much
warmer. In fact, Sunday will be downright hot with record highs
likely in Central KS. The tremendous warmup would be due to a strong
mid-upper ridge spreading E across the central third of the CONUS on
Sat. The upper ridge does deamplify on Sun as a broad upper trof
moves E across Southwestern Canada but as it crosses Southern Canada
downstairs troffing commences which would induce increasing SW
winds. The afore-mentioned broad upper-deck trof will send a cold
front SE that should reach Central KS late Sunday Night. Moisture is
lacking so it`ll be continued dry. The front`s late arrival should
prevent lows from dropping below 50 in most areas with the exception
being Central KS where lows may settle into the mid 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

Next Week:
After a dry Mon, a broad, weak inverted ridge will venture across
the Northern Plains which would induce lower-deck flow to become
easterly. Isenstropic ascent is feeble & as such only light rain
would occur late Mon Night & Tue (primarily in the morning) by which
time the SE-moving high would increase its influence. The chances
for showers & embedded thunderstorms increases as the week
progresses as a deepening upper-deck trof digs across the Great
Basin Wed Night & Thu. Lift doesn`t really increase until Wed Night
when the upper-deck trof is scheduled to cross AZ & NM. As such the
best chances of thunderstorms would occur late Wed Night & Thu.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

MVFR/IFR stratus cigs are expected to develop ahead of a cold
front across south central and southeast Kansas overnight. Patchy
MVFR fog and drizzle is also possible. North to northeast winds
and VFR conditions will develop by mid to late morning on Friday
behind the front.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

Per the above "Long Term" discussion the Grassland Fire Danger will
become a tremendous concern on Sun for the increasing S-SW winds
coupled with a deepen dry airmass will send RH`s to near 20% across
the NW sector of the cwa with RH`S across South-Central KS should
range from the upper 20s across Reno, Kingman & Harper Counties to
the 30% range across the remainder of Central & South-Central KS.
The greatest culprit would be S-SW winds from 20 to 30 mph with
gusts around 35 mph that`ll produce an Extreme Grassland Fire Danger
in most of Central & South-Central KS Sun Afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    73  42  71  54 /  10   0   0   0
Hutchinson      72  39  70  52 /  10   0   0   0
Newton          70  40  69  52 /  10   0   0   0
ElDorado        72  40  69  52 /  10   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   75  42  72  55 /  10   0   0   0
Russell         70  37  71  51 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      71  37  71  52 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          71  37  70  51 /  10   0   0   0
McPherson       71  38  69  51 /  10   0   0   0
Coffeyville     75  42  70  52 /  30  10   0   0
Chanute         73  39  69  50 /  30   0   0   0
Iola            72  39  68  49 /  20   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    74  41  69  51 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ052-053-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$

UPDATE...EPS
SYNOPSIS...EPS
SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...KED
FIRE WEATHER...EPS



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