Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 200842
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
342 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS DIMINISHING PRECIP TRENDS THIS
MORNING AND THEN THEIR RE-ENTRY INTO THE AREA AGAIN BY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LATEST RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A FASTER EASTWARD EXIT LATER THIS MORNING INTO MIDDAY.
SOME RESIDUAL PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE
OF THE TRAILING MEASURABLE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER RATHER BRIEF BREAK IN THE WET PATTERN WILL
COMMENCE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
ANOTHER UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE INLAND
WITH A MEAN UPPER TROF DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO
THE SOUTHWEST DESERT DURING FRIDAY. A LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT
NORTHEAST OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS KANSAS ON FRIDAY. SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WEAK TO
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL COINCIDE WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE PRECIP AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GREAT...THE GOING POP FORECAST SEEMS
REASONABLE WITH LIKELY POPS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CLIMO OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO SHOW A MEAN UPPER TROF ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
COUPLE OF RELATIVELY WEAKER SHORTWAVES EMANATING FROM THE
TROF AND RIPPLING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND A MORE SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE UPPER TROF MAY
BE KICKED NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS...THOUGH DETAILS REMAIN
A BIT UNCERTAIN THAT FAR OUT. NONETHELESS...A MOIST SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS THRU THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
CONVECTIVE RAINFALL. SOME RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE PRESENT...THOUGH DETAILS WILL BE TIED TO FOCUS
AND FORCING MECHANISMS WHICH ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN AT THIS POINT.
THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE SPIRIT OF THE GOING POP FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING CLOSER TO SEASONAL CLIMO.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

FOR ICT-HUT-SLN-RSL-CNU...AREAS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...WITH THE BACK EDGE REACHING ICT BY AROUND
06Z...AND CNU BY AROUND 09Z. IN ITS WAKE...EASTERLY WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO NORTHERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT...AROUND 10-15 KTS. CIGS
WILL BE TRICKY...ALTHOUGH THINK A GENERAL TREND TOWARD IFR FROM
WEST TO EAST IS LIKELY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...WITH PATCHY
DRIZZLE REDUCING VSBYS TO 4-6SM. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY
MID-LATE MORNING...WITH CONTINUED BREEZY NORTH WINDS.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    61  45  66  50 /  20  10  10  20
HUTCHINSON      60  43  65  48 /  20  10  10  30
NEWTON          59  43  64  48 /  20  10  10  10
ELDORADO        61  44  65  49 /  30  10   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   64  45  66  50 /  20  10  10  10
RUSSELL         57  41  64  47 /  10   0  10  50
GREAT BEND      57  42  64  48 /  10  10  10  60
SALINA          59  42  66  48 /  20  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       59  42  65  48 /  20  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     65  46  66  50 /  50  10  10  10
CHANUTE         62  44  65  49 /  50  10  10  10
IOLA            60  44  65  49 /  50  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    64  45  66  49 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


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