Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 022326
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
626 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

AN AREA OF SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS ORIENTED GENERALLY IN AN EAST-
WEST MANNER THAT HAD BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL KS CONTINUED TO
MOVE SE ~35MPH TOWARD SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. LIGHT SHOWERS WERE WIDELY
SCATTERED ACROSS PRIMARILY SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. THE CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT IS DIVING SE
OVER NEBRASKA/KS BORDER. THE STRONGER CONVECTION IS SUSTAINED BY A
FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED POCKET OF RICH THETA-E AIR RESIDING ACROSS
PRIMARILY SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. THE MOISTURE-LADEN ENVIRONMENT HAS PUT
THE CLAMPS ON TEMPERATURES WITH MOST AREAS IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

TONIGHT:
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DRAW THE GREATEST ATTENTION AS SEVERAL
WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUE TO MOVE SE FROM THE NORTHERN TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE DISCUSSED IN "SYNOPSIS" IS
DRIVING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SE ACROSS KS TONIGHT. PINPOINTING
THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE A CHALLENGE AS NOT ONLY IS IT
WEAK BUT ONGOING CONVECTION WILL UNLEASH WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
THIS MUCH IS CERTAIN: THE GREATEST SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
WILL OCCUR ACROSS OK WHERE NO DOUBT THE AIRMASS IS MOST UNSTABLE.
A TIGHT GENERAL NE-SW ORIENTED MLCAPE GRADIENT IS SITUATED ACROSS
KS & OK WITH 2500 TO 3000 J/KG COVERING CENTRAL & EASTERN OK AS
WELL AS EXTREME SW KS WHILE 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPES RESIDE OVER
EASTERN KS. AS THE INITIAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE & LOWER-DECK TROF
CONTINUE TO DIVE SE...THE GREATEST SHOWER & THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WOULD LIKEWISE SHIFT SE. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
KICT COUNTRY AS INSTABILITY IS LACKING.

THIS WEEKEND:
WITH MULTIPLE MID-UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING E/SE ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS INTERACTING WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NEIGHBORHOOD. AN UPPER-DECK WAVE SURGING
E FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA & ALBERTA (EARLY SAT MORNING) IS STILL
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY E ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN &
MANITOBA SAT & SAT NIGHT THEN ACROSS THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER
SAT NIGHT & SUN. THIS WOULD INDUCE N-S ORIENTED LOWER-DECK
TROFFING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN PLAINS TO ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER
THAT`LL BECOME MORE ASSERTIVE. THIS WOULD PRODUCE A BETTER DEFINED
MOISTURE CHANNEL FROM WESTERN OK TO WESTERN KS SAT NIGHT THAT WILL
SHIFT E SAT NIGHT & SUN. AS SUCH BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
KICT COUNTRY WOULD OCCUR SAT NIGHT & SUN WITH GREATEST CHANCES
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL & SOUTHEAST KS SUNDAY NIGHT & MON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

STILL ANTICIPATE A WET START TO THE WORK-WEEK. THE CANADIAN
UPPER-DECK WAVE SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT E/NE AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN
UPPER-DECK RIDGE THAT SHOULD SHARPLY AMPLIFY FROM NEW ENGLAND TO
ALONG THE QUEBEC/NEWFOUNDLAND BORDER MON & MON NIGHT. THE GFS &
ECMWF DISAGREE WITH HOW THE UPPER PATTERN WILL EVOLVE WITH THE
ECMWF DEPICTING MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN. THIS WOULD PUSH A COLD
FRONT SE ACROSS KS MON & MON NIGHT. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT AS TO HOW THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL EVOLVE.
TRANSLATION: BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR MON & MON
NIGHT WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES SHIFTING ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS ON
TUE. WITH A MOISTURE-LADEN AIRMASS COVERING CENTRAL & EASTERN KS
MON & MON NIGHT VERY HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER ARE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS AS OF 23Z...AND ARE ERODING AS OF THIS ISSUANCE.
STRONGER STORMS ARE PRESENT SURROUNDING THE AREA...BUT THE ONLY
TERMINAL THAT MAY SEE ANY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS KCNU. HAVE LEFT A
VCSH FOR NOW FOR THAT POTENTIAL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...WITH A SLIGHT NORTHERLY TENDENCY BY FRIDAY. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT BUT A SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL CEILING WILL
RETURN BY LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY. VFR TAFS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    68  87  70  90 /  30  20  20  30
HUTCHINSON      67  87  66  90 /  20  20  20  30
NEWTON          67  85  69  88 /  20  20  20  20
ELDORADO        68  86  67  87 /  30  30  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  88  69  89 /  50  30  20  30
RUSSELL         66  87  66  90 /  20  20  10  20
GREAT BEND      64  87  66  89 /  20  20  20  30
SALINA          67  85  68  89 /  20  20  10  20
MCPHERSON       68  86  67  89 /  20  20  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     69  85  67  87 /  60  40  20  30
CHANUTE         68  83  67  87 /  30  40  20  20
IOLA            68  81  67  86 /  30  40  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    69  84  66  87 /  50  40  20  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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