Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 171137
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
637 AM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

A weakening area of elevated moisture transport in the presence of
modest cape values of 500 to 900 J/KG will continue to support
convection and efficient rain makers across far southern Kansas
through the morning. While renewed isolated convection cannot be
ruled out into the afternoon for the Oklahoma border counties,
plan to keep PoPs below Chc20 after 18z today. Focus will then
turn to the High Plains this evening ahead of a shortwave upper
trof moving across the northern Rockies. As this feature moves
across the northern Plains tonight, elevated moisture transport
on the low level jet will nose into central Kansas toward 12z
Tuesday morning resulting in modest instability and chance for a
few showers/storms. This will be followed by some late day chances
across central Kansas into early Tuesday night as a warm front
attempts to migrate north toward the Nebraska border by 12z
Wednesday. The next chance for organized convection and severe
weather looks to arrive by Wednesday evening as a more vigorous
upper trof moves east across the northern/central Plains. The
increased westerly flow aloft will result in strong deep layer
shear as a cold front overtakes the dry-line across central
Kansas. Despite initial capping in place during the afternoon on
Wednesday, the convergence along the front looks more than
adequate to initiate/sustain convection Wednesday evening/night
as it moves southeast across the forecast area with the
instability/shear combo also lending to severe weather.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

A much cooler, near seasonable airmass will advect south across
Kansas on Thursday behind the mid-week cold front. Meanwhile, a
strong Pacific upper jet will move inland deepening the western
CONUS upper trof with a closed low evolving across Colorado and
the central High Plains late Friday. The deepening tropospheric
closed low will move slowly east across Kansas and the central
Plains during Saturday then to the mid-Mississippi Valley by
Sunday. Modest to strong moisture transport in the isentropic
lift regime ahead of the upper low will get the rainy and
occasionally stormy pattern going on Friday. As the system begins
to pull away later on Saturday the area looks to be affected by
the wrap-around precip on the southern edge of the trailing upper
deformation zone.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

Showers and storms were rapidly exiting Southeast KS early this
morning with a few areas of MVFR and even IFR cigs. Ceilings are
expected to gradually mix out by late morning or early afternoon
before falling again tonight as low level moisture returns north
in light southeast flow. Trended toward MVFR cigs and visibilities
across the area by 05-07Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    71  58  79  63 /  20  10  10  10
Hutchinson      70  58  79  63 /  10  10  10  10
Newton          70  57  78  62 /  10  10  10  10
ElDorado        71  58  79  63 /  20  10  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   73  58  80  64 /  60  10  10  10
Russell         69  57  81  60 /  10  30  20  20
Great Bend      68  57  81  61 /  10  20  10  20
Salina          71  58  79  63 /  10  20  30  30
McPherson       70  58  79  62 /  10  10  20  20
Coffeyville     73  58  80  63 /  50  10  10   0
Chanute         71  57  79  62 /  20  10  10  10
Iola            70  57  78  62 /  20  10  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    72  58  79  63 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...MWM



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