Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 101135
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
635 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

Upper level system will move northeast towards the Mississippi
valley region today, with light rain showers tapering off this
morning for central/eastern Kansas. Well below normal temperatures
will prevail in the wake of this system, as cold air advection from
north winds and stubborn low clouds slowly erode from west to east.
A very chilly night expected with clear skies and surface high
pressure centered over central Kansas thus creating ideal radiational
cooling. This will allow patchy frost to develop over much of the
area at daybreak for Wednesday. Surface high will shift east of
Kansas on Wednesday night with warmer air pushing back into the
central plains on Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

Long range models show next weather system moving into the Heartland
for the weekend, with increasing rain chances and warmer than normal
temperatures until a cold front pushes across Kansas on Sunday.
There are some differences between GFS/ECMWF models on timing of the
upper level wave/surface cold front however the signal is fairly
similar.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

Aviation concern will be departing low clouds today.

Upper wave is currently lifting across central KS with the cold
front situated from southern MO down into southern TX. Low clouds
on the backside of the surface low continue to affect the entire
area but are starting to erode quickly across western KS. This
trend will continue into the afternoon hours with areas west of
I-135 clear by the 18z-20z range. Confidence is high the clouds
will stay above IFR levels with some pockets of MVFR mixed-in this
morning. Clear skies are expected area wide by this evening with
light winds and frost.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    53  37  66  49 /  30   0   0   0
Hutchinson      53  35  66  48 /  40   0   0   0
Newton          52  36  65  47 /  40   0   0   0
ElDorado        51  37  65  47 /  30   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   54  37  65  48 /  20   0   0   0
Russell         55  34  67  48 /  30   0   0   0
Great Bend      55  35  67  48 /  30   0   0   0
Salina          51  34  66  48 /  50   0   0   0
McPherson       52  35  65  47 /  40   0   0   0
Coffeyville     54  39  64  44 /  10   0   0   0
Chanute         52  39  63  44 /  20   0   0   0
Iola            51  39  63  43 /  20   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    53  39  64  45 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...RBL



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