000
FXUS63 KICT 170853
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
353 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY )
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

FORECAST HIGHLIGHT:
STILL ANTICIPATE (+)TSRA POTENTIAL TO INCREASE FROM SUN TO MON WITH
GREATEST POTENTIAL TICKETED FOR SE KS DURING THESE PERIODS.

UPR-DECK TROF IS MOVG E OVER CA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE TROF WILL
GRADUALLY DEEPEN & TAKE ON NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CROSSES THE ROCKIES
SAT NGT & SUN. IN THE PROCESS...A FAIRLY STOUT DRY LINE WILL DEVELOP
FROM SW KS ACROSS THE ERN CORRIDOR OF THE OK PANHANDLE TO W TX & WILL
PUNCH E ACROSS WRN OK SAT NGT THEN RETREAT LATE SAT NGT & EARLY SUN
DURING WHICH TIME A COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH SE ACROSS NW KS.
ALL WILL PLAY VITAL ROLES IN (+)TSRA DEVELOPING OVER MOST OF KS. MANY
TSRA MAY BE SVR SUN & SUN NGT WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL SHIFTING E OVER
SE KS SUN NGT AS AFORE-MENTIONED UPR TROF UNDERGOES CYCLOGENESIS OVER
NEBRASKA & SD. MADE CHANGES TO POPS...WX & QPF TO REFLECT EWD PROGESSION
OF MOST FACETS OF EVOLVING PATTERN...NAMELY TO EXPAND CHC POPS FURTHER
SE SAT NGT & SUN MORNING. INHERITED TSRA GAMEPLAN FROM SUN AFTERNOON &
SUN NGT LOOKED GOOD & THEREFORE RETAINED.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

MID-UPR CYCLONE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES...THEN
CROSSES...UPR MS VALLEY MON NGT & TUE NGT. HOWEVER...THE ATTENDANT
WAVE EXTENDING S/SW ACROSS KS WILL REMAIN QUITE INTENSE. AS SUCH CHCS
FOR TSRA REMAIN HIGH ACROSS ALL OF SE KS INCLUDING THE FLINT HILLS...A
FEW OF WHICH MAY STILL BE SEVERE. CHANCES FOR -SHRA/-TSRA STILL
SCHEDULED TO END OVER SE KS ON TUE IN W-E MANNER AS THE POTENT MID-UPR
WAVE VACATES THE PREMISES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

LOW CIGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS TONIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING.

MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT STILL THINKING THAT CIGS WILL LOWER GENERALLY
AFTER 09Z ACROSS MOST AREAS. DID TEMPO SOME IFR CIGS AFTER 09Z BUT
CURRENTLY HAVE LOW CONFIDENT ON HOW FAR VISIBILITIES WILL DROP. IF
THEY ARE LIKE LAST NIGHT THEY WILL BOUNCE AROUND QUITE A BIT.
HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SITES DROP TO LESS
THAN 2SM AT TIMES EARLY FRI MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THESE
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIFT BY 16Z.

LAWSON


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    84  67  86  68 /  10  10  20  30
HUTCHINSON      85  67  85  67 /  10  10  20  30
NEWTON          83  66  85  69 /  10  10  20  30
ELDORADO        82  67  86  69 /  10  10  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   82  67  87  70 /  10  10  20  20
RUSSELL         86  68  88  65 /  10  10  20  30
GREAT BEND      86  70  88  64 /  10  20  20  30
SALINA          84  65  87  69 /  10  10  20  30
MCPHERSON       85  66  86  68 /  10  10  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     81  65  87  70 /  10  10  10  20
CHANUTE         81  65  85  70 /  10  10  10  20
IOLA            80  65  85  71 /  10  10  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    81  65  86  70 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

ES