Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 180522
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1222 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE TRACKING
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM SE MO INTO SOUTHERN OK...WITH A LEE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
WESTERN SD INTO EASTERN CO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN CO AND WOULD EXPECT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER NW KS/WESTERN NEBRASKA. SOME OF THIS
MAYBE AIDED BY A WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY THAT WATER VAPOR IS SHOWING
TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN CO. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION WILL TRY TO
AFFECT NW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA GENERALLY AFTER 03Z.
CENTRAL KS WILL HAVE THE "BEST" CHANCE AT SEEING STORMS DUE TO
INCREASED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 315K
SURFACE. BY MON MORNING THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WOULD EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE WAVE OVER IA AND FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH
LESS CERTAINTY OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM THAT A WEAK SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
TRY TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL KS WHICH MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO LACK OF DECENT CONVERGENCE
AND WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 850-700MB THETA-E
ADVECTION WILL INCREASE OVER EASTERN KS MON EVENING AS THE MID LEVEL
FLOW VEERS WHICH MAY SPARK A FEW STORMS WITH BETTER COVERAGE OVER
NORTHEAST KS AND NW MO WHERE AN UPPER JET MAX WILL MOVE IN.

OUTSIDE OF A FEW MORNING STORMS OVER SE KS...WOULD EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS ON TUE AS WE GET INTO SOME WEAK UPPER RIDGING. THERE IS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN LIFTING UPPER ENERGY OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF WY/NEBRASKA BY TUE
NIGHT WITH THIS ACTIVITY STAYING NORTH OF THE AREA.

BASED ON 850MB TEMPS AND 1000-850MB PARTIAL THICKNESSES...TEMPS
MON LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE FIRST
FEW DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK. SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SW AHEAD
OF THE SLOW MOVING FRONT SHOULD ALLOW SOME AREAS OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KS TO PUSH THE CENTURY MARK. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

ECMWF AND GFS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DIGGING A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH THE GFS MORE ROBUST
WITH THIS FEATURE. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TAKING THIS
FEATURE EAST AND BY SAT HAS IT OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...THE GFS HOLDS THE BULK OF THE ENERGY BACK OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL ALSO HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT...WITH THE ECMWF PUSHING IT THROUGH BY
SUN AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE THINKING THAT THE
BETTER STORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE FRONT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE KS/NEBRASKA BORDER BY SUN. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MOST
OF THESE EXTENDED PERIODS.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

A LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTY NORTH FROM THE STORMS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS THE STORMS PASS BY. WINDS WILL THEN VEER
AROUND TO THE EAST THEN SWITCH TO THE SOUTH FOR MONDAY MORNING.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    71  97  74  98 /  20  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      69  98  74  99 /  20  10  10  10
NEWTON          70  97  74  97 /  20  10  10  10
ELDORADO        71  97  76  98 /  20  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   72  98  74  97 /  20  10  10  10
RUSSELL         68  96  73  97 /  20  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      67  96  73  97 /  20  10  10  10
SALINA          71  97  74 100 /  20  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       69  97  73  98 /  20  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     71  97  74  97 /  30  20  10  10
CHANUTE         70  96  74  96 /  30  20  10  10
IOLA            70  95  73  95 /  30  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    70  97  74  96 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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