Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 042332
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
532 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 308 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2017

A strong cold front is currently making its way southeast across the
forecast area at this time, currently located from TOP to KICT. Pre-
frontal trof ahead of the cold front is situated over extreme ern KS
at this time, with some limited moisture and instability (around 500
J/KG of MLCAPE) located across extreme SE KS.

Expect to see a small window of opportunity across extreme SE KS for
a shower or thunderstorm chance to develop for the late afternoon
hours, as the elevated mixed layer weakens (almost gone), and
convergence from the trof increases. Think most of the convection
will develop to the east of the forecast area, across SW MO, but
could see an isolated strong storm, given bulk shear values of 35-
40kts, before most of the convection moves east of the area.

The main concern for the evening and overnight hours, will be the
falling temps and strong gusty winds from the NW. Expect strong NW
winds behind the front, with sustained winds of 25-30 mph and
possibly some gusts close to 40 mph. The strong winds may linger
into the evening hours, with the strongest winds an hour or two
after the front passes. Current wind advisory/Red Flag warning only
goes to 00z, so am concerned some areas may continue to see wind
advisory type wind gusts until possibly 02-03z. So we may have to
go with a last second extension to the advisory during the
evening hours.

Expect falling temps tonight, with noticeably colder temps by Tue
morning, with some areas of central KS falling into the low 20s
by Tue morning. Could even see some wind chill values fall into
the single digits across portions of central KS for early Tue
morning.

Colder (back towards normal) temps for early Dec, will be the story
through the middle of the week, as a large trough develops to the
north of the Great Lakes, with most of the plains in strong NW flow.
NW flow over the plains suggests continued dry conditions as the
deeper moisture is shunted to the south.  Could see some bouts of
flurries, to the northeast of the forecast area thru at least Thu
night. Expect to see the colder air remain at least through Thu or
Fri, with a reinforcing shot of colder air moving south late Wed
night or early Thu.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 308 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2017

Medium range models both suggest a little bit of a warming trend
going into the weekend, as the colder air gets shunted a little
further E-NE of the area.  Some question on how long this warming
trend will last, as medium range models both suggest colder air may
"backdoor" back into the region from the northeast for the beginning
of next week.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 532 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2017

Strong and gusty northwest winds will subside a bit through this
evening, though remaining gusty until closer to dawn. However,
west to northwest winds will pick up again by midday on Tuesday
with the strongest winds along/north of the I-70 corridor. Some
upper jet induced cirrostratus will affect southern Kansas
tonight.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 308 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2017

Strong northwesterly winds with very dry air will move across
the region late this afternoon and early this evening. Winds are
expected to be the primarily driving factor for the extreme
grassland fire danger values late this afternoon across much of
Central Kansas. Wind gusts up to 40 mph are likely across much of
the I-70 corridor late this afternoon. Gusty winds of 30-35 are
also possible north of US-54 and west of I-35 as well. Red Flag
conditions are expected to diminish and end shortly after sunset
today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    27  51  30  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      25  50  28  48 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          25  49  28  47 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        27  50  29  48 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   28  51  29  50 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         21  49  27  46 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      21  49  27  47 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          24  50  29  47 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       24  49  28  47 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     31  51  29  52 /  10   0   0   0
Chanute         29  50  30  50 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            29  49  29  48 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    31  50  30  51 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067-068-082-083.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ032-033-047>052-
067-068-082-083.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...KED
FIRE WEATHER...Ketcham



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