Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 101155
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
655 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014

SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPRINTING ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS MID- AMERICA THIS MORNING...WITH
STOUT/GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. MOMENTUM TRANSFER
VALUES SUGGEST NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT SHIFTS SOUTH...ALONG WITH
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER (REFER TO "FIRE WEATHER" SECTION BELOW FOR
FURTHER DETAILS). DESPITE COLD ADVECTION...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE 70S ALL AREAS. FOR TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THINKING THE BEST LIFT WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SPRINKLES AND/OR
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR FRIDAY...AS
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH SOMEWHAT RICHER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY OR SEVERE
WEATHER. FOR SATURDAY...AS UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND LOW- LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...COULD SEE A
FEW MID/LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ERUPT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT/DRYLINE TRIPLE POINT OVER CENTRAL KS.
HOWEVER...SUSPECT STOUT ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL INHIBIT BETTER
CHANCES UNTIL AFTER DARK...GENERALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
KS. IF STORMS CAN FORM...INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBO SUGGESTS
STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014

ANTICIPATING GREATER PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY --SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. COMPARED TO 1-2 DAYS AGO...MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT SURROUNDING THE OVERALL
EVOLUTION...LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES REMAIN...NAMELY A SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION COMPARED TO
GFS/GEM CONSENSUS. THE SLOWER SOLUTION WILL FAVOR MORE WIDESPREAD
MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION OVER A GREATER PORTION OF THE AREA...AS
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE HELD FURTHER WEST LONGER. FOR NOW AM
FAVORING A 3-WAY MODEL CONSENSUS. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN MARGINAL MID/UPPER FLOW...NUMEROUS STRONG
WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE.
MEANWHILE...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WITH 30S-40S LIKELY BY SUNDAY EVENING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
TURNPIKE ALONG WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS. COULD SEE A PERIOD OF
RAIN/SNOW MIX NORTHWEST OF THE KS TURNPIKE LATE SUNDAY--SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE MINOR ON GRASSY
SURFACES. MONDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY ONLY IN THE LOW-
MID 50S...WITH NEAR-FREEZING TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014

POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WHICH UNFORTUNATELY CANNOT BE CONVEYED IN TAFS. 88D
REFLECTIVITY AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW MULTIPLE GRAVITY WAVES
ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS HAS LED TO
EXTREMELY VARIABLE WINDS...CAUSING ABRUPT...RAPID AND LARGE
CHANGES IN BOTH WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS. THIS APPEARS TO BE
CONFINED WITHIN ABOUT 50 NAUTICAL MILES BEHIND THE FRONT.

BY MIDDAY FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH KCNU WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS
AT THE REMAINDER OF THE SITES. SOME STRATOCUMULUS POSSIBLE AT KICT
AND MORE LIKELY AT KCNU LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON AT KCNU. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
-HOWERTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014

WILL BE LOOKING AT VERY HIGH TO POTENTIALLY A FEW HOURS OF LOW
END EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER SPREADING SOUTH TODAY IN WAKE OF
A COLD FRONT. STOUT/GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED...ALONG WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20S-30S
PERCENT. VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL RETURN TO THE AREA
SATURDAY...AS TEMPERATURES WARM AND SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BLAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS MID- AMERICA
SUNDAY...WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES...STRONG NORTH
WINDS AND PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    75  48  77  53 /   0  10   0  10
HUTCHINSON      72  46  76  51 /   0  10   0  10
NEWTON          72  46  76  52 /   0  10  10  10
ELDORADO        74  48  76  54 /   0  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   77  50  77  56 /   0  10  10  10
RUSSELL         71  43  76  52 /   0  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      72  44  76  52 /   0  10  10  10
SALINA          71  45  76  51 /   0  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       72  45  76  51 /   0  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     78  51  76  56 /   0  10  20  10
CHANUTE         75  48  75  55 /   0  10  20  10
IOLA            74  47  74  55 /   0   0  20  10
PARSONS-KPPF    76  50  75  56 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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