Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 221756
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1256 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY COMBINATION WILL SEND THE HEAT INDEX VALUES
SOARING AGAIN TODAY...WITH ALL AREAS LIKELY REACHING HEAT ADVISORY
LEVELS THUS WILL INCLUDE ENTIRE AREA FOR HEADLINES. OTHERWISE STILL
EXPECTING THE SURFACE FRONT TO MIGRATE SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS FOR
TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND COULD MIGRATE
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS TONIGHT...HOWEVER FORCING
REMAINS WEAK ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE
COVERAGE FURTHER SOUTH. WEDNESDAY`S DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE LOWER
THAN TUESDAY BUT STILL REMAIN A LITTLE WARMER THAN NORMAL...WE
COULD SEE A FEW AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS TRY AND MATERIALIZE LATER IN
THE DAY ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN KANSAS. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE FOR KANSAS ON THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HEARTLAND FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...AND HEAT HEADLINES COULD COME BACK INTO THE PICTURE GIVEN
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON FRONTAL
POSITIONING/TIMING FOR SUNDAY AS GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS. WE WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
SUNDAY BUT MODEL SIGNAL IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT ALONG THE SURFACE
FRONT. MEANWHILE...IF LONGER RANGE MODELS MAINTAIN CURRENT TRENDS OF
A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER RIDGE
AXIS RETROGRADING INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A
NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN FOR KANSAS NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION...WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AGAIN.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WAS
STILL IN NEBRASKA AT 1730Z. SATELLITE SHOWING SOME UNDULAR BORE
TYPE ACTION ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME PRETTY GOOD TURBULENCE IN THESE
AREAS.

THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS. BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...THEY SHOULD BE NEAR KCNU. THE STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF INTERSTATE 135.

CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW THAT FOG OR IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
TOWARD MORNING. THIS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME...BUT
CHANCES ARE SMALL ENOUGH THE WE OMITTED IT FROM THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

COOK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    99  73  96  71 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON     100  73  95  71 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON         100  73  93  70 /  10  20  10  10
ELDORADO        99  73  93  70 /  10  20  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   98  73  95  71 /  10  10  20  20
RUSSELL        101  71  94  70 /  10  20  10  10
GREAT BEND     101  70  94  71 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA         104  73  94  69 /  10  20  10  10
MCPHERSON      102  73  94  70 /  10  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     98  74  95  70 /  10  20  30  30
CHANUTE         98  74  93  69 /  10  30  20  20
IOLA            98  74  92  68 /  10  30  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    98  74  94  69 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$







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