Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KICT 262337
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
637 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS MAINTAINING ITS HOLD ON THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. A TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL NAVIGATE EASTWARD AND
STAY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LOW
WILL QUICKLY WRAP ITSELF UP ON TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN
OVER THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA WITH A SOUTHWARD EXTENDED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT WHICH WILL BE MOVING IN FROM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE AND IN WESTERN KANSAS WITH A WEAK WAVE AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE WEST COAST. MODELS HAVE DEPICTED A
LATER ENTRANCE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS WHICH LED TO ADJUSTING THE POPS
TO THE LATTER TIME PERIOD. SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...THERE COULD
BE LINGERING CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO START THE WORK WEEK.
A SIMILAR STORY AND A DIFFERENT DAY SHALL OCCUR FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE WORK WEEK. EVEN THOUGH HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT NEAR 100 DEGREES
FOR MONDAY...HEAT INDICES SHOULD STAY BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
GIVEN CURRENT FORECAST. IT MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS MIXED ON WHETHER IT WILL OCCUR. THUS
DECISION CAN BE MADE FOR THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEXT FORECAST

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A RELATIVE COOL DOWN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING THE MID WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS DROPPING A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...VALUES MAY BE EVEN
LOWER GIVEN PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER PARTICULARLY ON
WEDNESDAY. OVERALL THE FORECAST MAINTAINS THE SAME TUNE AS
PREVIOUS ISSUANCE WITH ONLY THE MENTIONED ADJUSTMENTS PER MODEL
DEPICTION.

VP

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE MAINLY STAYING PUT OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES
IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THE
NORTHWARD POSITION OF THE JET STREAM. MODELS HINTING AT A COUPLE
OF WEAK WAVES TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK TO NEXT WEEKEND. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH GIVEN THE TIMEFRAME IN THE FORECAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW NORMAL WITH VALUES AROUND 90 DEGREES
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

VP

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS CURRENTLY NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE PROGRESSING EAST THIS EVENING...AIDED BY A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET AND GOOD STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW.
INSERTED VCTS BY 06Z AT RSL...AS THERE ARE DECENT CHANCES SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY...ALBEIT WEAKER THAN ITS CURRENT STATE...WILL REACH
RSL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS...AS AMENDMENTS MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR PREVAILING OR TEMPO TS. INCLUDED ONLY
VCSH BY 08Z AT SLN-HUT...AS CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ACTIVITY WILL
EVEN SURVIVE THAT FAR EAST. ICT HAS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SEEING
ANYTHING LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE ALL AREAS MONDAY MORNING...BECOMING BREEZY/GUSTY BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...AS LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.

ADK

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

RECORD WARM LOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN RUSSELL AND SALINA ON
TUESDAY...BUT THIS IS DEPENDENT ON MINIMAL INFLUENCE FROM SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING TO PRIOR TO CLIMATE ISSUANCE.
COOLER AIR FROM ANY OUTFLOW OR RAIN COOLED AIR WILL SQUASH THE
POTENTIAL.

VP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    76  99  77  99 /  10   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      76 100  77 100 /  20  10  10  20
NEWTON          76  98  76  98 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        75  98  76  98 /  10  10   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   76  98  76  97 /  10   0   0  10
RUSSELL         75 100  77  98 /  40  20  10  30
GREAT BEND      75 100  76  99 /  30  20  10  30
SALINA          76 100  78 100 /  20  10  10  30
MCPHERSON       76 100  77 100 /  20  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     75  97  76  96 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         74  96  76  96 /  10  10  10   0
IOLA            74  96  75  96 /  10  10  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    75  96  76  96 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.