Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 021734
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1134 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 337 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

Today-Saturday:
Little change from previous forecast as temperatures will be at
or above normal again today. Clouds however will be on the
increase. Precipitation is expected to spread across the border
from OK this evening into South Central KS, but precipitation is
not expected for the bulk of the area until after midnight.
Thermal profile suggest some rain/snow mix roughly as far south as
Highway 400, with predominately snow in Central KS. Accumulation
is expected to be less than a quarter inch in Central KS.
Rain/snow line is expected to shift rapidly north Saturday
morning. The clouds and precipitation will likely keep
temperatures in the 40s on Saturday.

Sunday:
Temperatures will make modest recovery back into the 50s on
Sunday with clearing and downslope flow. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 337 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

Uncertainty remains high with models still struggling with pattern
change during this period. Give the strong jet and cold air
advection currently feeding into Western US trough, and high
likelihood that a closed low will develop in Mexico, timing of
ejecting wave is problematic. 0000 UTC runs appear about 12 hours
slow than previous runs, and this still may not be slow enough.
The track of a potentially potent baroclinic zone continues to
waffle. This could be the first significant winter storm, or not.
Will just have to wait and see. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

While VFR conditions will prevail for the first half of the
forecast valid period, ceilings will lower steadily into the
MVFR category during Saturday morning as lift ahead of an
approaching disturbance aloft increases over central and
southern Kansas. Patchy light rain and mixed rain/snow will
also develop by sunrise on Saturday morning and spread to
the northeast. Winds will remain light across the area.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    52  35  45  35 /   0  40  40  50
Hutchinson      50  31  44  31 /   0  30  40  40
Newton          50  32  44  33 /   0  30  40  40
ElDorado        51  35  45  35 /   0  30  30  50
Winfield-KWLD   53  38  47  36 /   0  40  40  50
Russell         47  28  41  26 /   0  20  30  20
Great Bend      49  28  41  27 /   0  30  30  30
Salina          48  28  44  30 /   0  20  40  40
McPherson       49  30  44  31 /   0  20  40  40
Coffeyville     54  39  49  39 /   0  30  40  50
Chanute         52  36  47  37 /   0  20  30  50
Iola            51  35  46  37 /   0  10  30  50
Parsons-KPPF    53  38  48  38 /   0  20  40  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...KED



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