Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 181124
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
524 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD OUT OF KANSAS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY...WHILE WEAK LEE
TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. AFTER A FRIGID START THIS
MORNING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE VIA
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND COMPONENT AND FULL SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...THE
COOLEST READINGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
WHERE REMNANT SNOWPACK EXISTS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. SO DESPITE FURTHER TEMPERATURE MODIFICATION IN THE
SOUTH...HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL STILL BE BELOW AVERAGE. LITTLE IF ANY
SNOWCOVER SHOULD REMAIN BY THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY
GETTING INTO THE MID 40S. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL
TRAVERSE EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS WHERE STRATUS AND
POSSIBLY DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR A FEW
HOURS...BEFORE WINDS VEER TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST LATE ALLOWING TEMPS
TO RISE A FEW DEGREES TO ABOVE FREEZING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-
NORTHEAST INTO MISSOURI/ARKANSAS ON FRIDAY. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
PATTERN WITH VERY MOIST LEVELS CONFINED TO 800 MB AND BELOW SUGGEST
CHANCES FOR DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
KS TURNPIKE. A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG
INTO NEW MEXICO AND NORTHERN MEXICO FRIDAY...BEFORE EJECTING
NORTHEAST IN A NEGATIVE-TILT FASHION...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY AND THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE RICHER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/INSTABILITY IS PROGGED JUST EAST/SOUTHEAST OF
SOUTHEASTERN KS...A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE
MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS. OUR HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST KS SATURDAY-
SATURDAY NIGHT...TAPERING TO NIL CHANCE IN OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES OF CENTRAL KS. COMPUTED LIFTED INDICES ABOVE 925 AND 850
MB ARE SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE SUGGESTING
ISOLATED THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO
LATE NOVEMBER AVERAGES DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 518 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS
DURING THE NEXT 24HRS...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS
FLOATING OVERHEAD.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    34  25  42  22 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      37  24  42  22 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          35  24  41  21 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        34  24  41  22 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   35  25  44  24 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         46  23  43  19 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      47  23  45  21 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          39  24  41  20 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       40  24  41  21 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     36  27  43  23 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         34  23  42  21 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            34  24  41  21 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    35  23  42  22 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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