Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 180835
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
335 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

TODAY:
MAIN CONCERN IS TIMING OF CLEARING AND RESULTANT IMPACT ON MAXES
TODAY. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGEST A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRYING IN
SOUTHEAST KS...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH ACROSS MIDDLE OF
THE STATE...AND SUSPECT THERE WILL ONLY BE PARTIAL CLEARING...WITH
CUMULUS EITHER LINGERING/REDEVELOPING MIDDAY...ESPECIALLY AIDED BY
WARMER AIR ALOFT ENHANCING INVERSION. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT-SUN NIGHT:
GRADUAL WARMING TREND SEEMS PROBABLE AS HEIGHTS RISE. FORECAST
WILL BE DRY...BUT THERE ARE A NUMBER OF PESKY SMALL SCALE SIGNALS
WHICH MIGHT GENERATE ISOLATED PRECIPITATION...RANGING FROM A
SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXES...WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 700MB AND/OR
850MB AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. TIMING BETWEEN SIGNALS IS NOT
PARTICULARLY GOOD EITHER. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SLIGHT/
MARGINALLY BETTER CHANCES AROUND 1200 UTC SAT AND ALSO AROUND 1200
UTC MON. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

RETURN FLOW REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY EITHER
CLOSE TO OR IN THE FORECAST AREA STARTING TUE NIGHT AND
PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. CONVECTION ON
BOUNDARY WILL HAVE BIG IMPACT ON HOW FAR SOUTH IT GOES AND HOW
QUICKLY IT MOVES. CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH ON MODEL SOLUTIONS
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF CONVECTION AND ITS RESULTANT IMPACT ON FUTURE
CONVECTION/FRONTAL POSITION. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE NORMALS BARRING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OR STRONGER FRONT.
-HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014

LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS WE
MOVE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.  HOWEVER AREAS
OF DRIZZLE AND FOG MAY PERSIST WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS MOST
LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
KANSAS WHERE THE PBL IS SATURATED WITHIN A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW.
FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS MORE TRANSIENT IFR/MVFR IS
ANTICIPATED. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE SHORTLY
AFTER 15Z.

MWM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    77  61  85  69 /  10   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      78  59  85  69 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          77  59  85  68 /  10   0  10  10
ELDORADO        77  60  84  67 /  10   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   76  60  84  68 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELL         78  62  88  71 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      76  60  87  70 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          80  62  88  70 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       78  60  86  69 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     78  60  84  66 /  10   0  10  10
CHANUTE         79  60  84  65 /  10   0  10  10
IOLA            79  60  84  65 /  10   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    79  59  84  66 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





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