Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KICT 151747
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1247 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KS AT THIS TIME. CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM KMHK TO NEAR KHUT TO
JUST NORTH OF KPTT. LOTS OF POST FRONTAL STATUS AS THE COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. SO WILL SEE MOST LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE KS TURNPIKE BECOME CLOUDY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST.

AS THIS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH...850-700H FN CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO
INCREASE....ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. LOTS OF SUNSHINE OVER SE KS MAY HELP DESTABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
AS FRONTAL CONVERGENCE INCREASES.  LATEST HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGESTS A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY GET GOING ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER IN SE KS AFTER ABOUT 21Z.  SO WILL ADJUST POPS SOME AS MOST
AREAS WEST OF THE TURNPIKE WILL JUST SEE INCREASING CLOUDY SKIES. IF
A STORM CAN GET GOING...A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND BULK
SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KTS MAY LEAD TO A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM.  BUT
ONLY A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL EXIST OVER SE KS...AS FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH INTO NORTHERN OK AFTER 23-00Z/TUE.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLOW SOUTH ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION
TODAY...IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THINKING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS THE COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION WILL FAVOR A
FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD
STRONG/SEVERE ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED. IN THE COLD FRONT`S
WAKE...BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE
EXPECTED...WITH READINGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WARMING WELL INTO THE
80S. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHERN KS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN ZONE OF WEAK 850MB CONVERGENCE. COOLER
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS TUESDAY EVENING-NIGHT...AS
LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. COULD ALSO SEE
ACTIVITY ROLL IN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS AFTER DARK AS THE LOW-LEVEL
JET INCREASES. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IN
THE VICINITY OF A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AMIDST PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT THE SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS IS LOW.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

WARMER...BREEZY AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST INCREASING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AS REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
ODILE...CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...GETS CAUGHT
UP IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH
MAY ENHANCE THESE CHANCES. FOR NOW WENT 30-50 POPS FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KS AT THIS TIME. CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM KEMP TO JUST NW OF
KICT TO KPTT. LOTS OF POST FRONTAL STATUS AND MVFR CIGS AS THE
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THERE IS EVEN A
FEW REPORTS OF IFR CIGS FOR A SHORT TIME ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE COOLER AIR. EXPECT THIS MVFR CLOUD DECK TO CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTH FOR MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF THE KS TURNPIKE FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST.

AS THIS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH...850-700H FN CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO
INCREASE....ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. LOTS OF SUNSHINE OVER SE KS MAY HELP DESTABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE OF TSRA..AS FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
INCREASES.  LATEST HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGESTS A FEW SHOWERS
OR STORMS MAY GET GOING IN AND NEAR THE KCNU TAF SITE...SO WILL GO
WITH A VCTS FOR THIS TAF FOR THE 21Z-00Z/TUE TIME FRAME.

BUT ONLY A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL EXIST OVER SE KS FOR
TSRA...AS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO NORTHERN OK AFTER 23-00Z/TUE.
COULD SEE SOME LINGERING VCSH FOR THE KCNU FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ALSO NOT SURE HOW FAR BACK INTO THE COOLER AIR THE STRATUS DECK AND
MVFR CIGS WILL LAST...AS DRIER AIR TRYS TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL KS.  SO
WILL CLEAR OUT THE MVFR CIGS FOR KRSL/KSLN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    84  57  76  64 /  20  20  10  20
HUTCHINSON      76  55  76  63 /  20  10  10  20
NEWTON          79  54  74  62 /  20  10  10  20
ELDORADO        82  54  75  62 /  20  20  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  59  77  64 /  30  30  10  20
RUSSELL         69  51  74  62 /  10  10  10  30
GREAT BEND      69  53  75  62 /  20  10  10  30
SALINA          71  49  74  62 /  20  10  10  30
MCPHERSON       72  53  75  63 /  10  10  10  30
COFFEYVILLE     86  59  76  63 /  50  40  10  30
CHANUTE         85  55  74  60 /  40  30  10  30
IOLA            82  55  73  59 /  30  30  10  30
PARSONS-KPPF    86  58  75  61 /  50  40  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.