Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 280453
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1153 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.

MID-AFTERNOON ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH WEAK/SUBTLE DISTURBANCES EJECTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. PLUME OF RICH MONSOONAL MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A CONFLUENCE
ZONE WAS DRAPED FROM NORTHWEST KS SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH- CENTRAL
KS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY
ERUPTED ACROSS CENTRAL KS...AMIDST RICH LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO ERUPT ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF KS...AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT CONTINUES TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST. MODEST-STRONG INSTABILITY IN
CONCERT WITH AROUND 30 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD PROMOTE
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS...WHICH COULD CLIP FAR
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF WICHITA`S FORECAST AREA (BARTON-RUSSELL-
LINCOLN COUNTIES) THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH SUSPECT GREATEST
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN/NORTHWEST KS AND NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT IN ZONE OF STRONGEST LOW-MID LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION.
FURTHERMORE...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND RELATIVELY SKINNY CAPES
WILL PROMOTE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

AS CENTRAL ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO ADVANCE
EAST...AMIDST RICH LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE...THINKING BETTER
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. ANTICIPATE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS WICHITA`S
FORECAST AREA WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY...IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...AND
ALSO AS A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE ADVANCES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. POOR
MID-LEVEL RATES SHOULD LIMIT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
GIVEN STRENGTH OF UPPER WINDS AND APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. ONCE
AGAIN...LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE GIVEN RICH SUBTROPICAL
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM FOCUS SHOULD SHIFT
INTO EASTERN/SOUTHEAST KS FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

ALL-IN-ALL...GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS...FOR THIS WHOLE
EVENT THINKING WIDESPREAD RAIN AMOUNTS OF 0.50-1.00" IS A GOOD
BET...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...GFS AND TO SOME DEGREES THE ECMWF
INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN A ZONE OF
INCREASING 700 WARM/MOIST ADVECTION.

NEXT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY
EVENING...AS A STOUT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. GFS
AND ECMWF BOTH STALL THIS FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS MON-
TUE...WHICH COULD SPELL AN ACTIVE FEW DAYS OVER MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF KS.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STAYED NORTH OF THE TAF FORECAST AREA...NORTH
OF KRSL/KSLN THIS EVENING. HOWEVER SHORT-TERM HIGH RES GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT KRSL/KSLN AND KHUT COULD SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND HAVE PUT VCTS AND TEMPO GROUPS AT
THOSE LOCATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR IT. THINK ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND LATER THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. STILL MAINTAINING VFR BUT IF STORMS CENTER
THEMSELVES OVER A TAF SITE...CEILING AND VISIBILITIES COULD BE
DEGRADED TO MVFR/IFR. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND
SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  90  69  86 /  30  40  60  50
HUTCHINSON      73  86  67  86 /  40  50  60  50
NEWTON          72  88  68  85 /  30  40  60  50
ELDORADO        73  91  69  85 /  20  30  60  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  92  70  87 /  20  30  60  50
RUSSELL         69  86  65  85 /  50  50  60  40
GREAT BEND      70  86  65  86 /  50  50  60  40
SALINA          73  87  68  85 /  40  50  60  50
MCPHERSON       72  86  67  85 /  40  50  60  50
COFFEYVILLE     72  96  71  87 /  20  10  40  60
CHANUTE         72  94  70  86 /  20  10  40  60
IOLA            72  94  69  85 /  20  10  40  60
PARSONS-KPPF    72  95  70  87 /  20  10  40  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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