Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 142359
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
559 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 135 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

Low level moisture remains trapped over most of the CWA this
afternoon with some decent mid level over running. Lack of
subsidence aloft will keep the drizzle and fog in the the region
this afternoon and into the evening hours. This set up is strongly
entrenched over the region and this is the reason we have had such
a persistent cool and dreary weather conditions over the past few
days. Luckily, a strong upper level trough with jet stream support
and an attendant surface cold front will be coming through the
region overnight tonight and Wednesday morning. This will provide
the needed kick to get rid of the clouds and drizzle. This
approaching system will also provide the needed forcing and
instability to bring the chances for some showers and
thunderstorms during the early morning hours across much of South
Central and Southeast Kansas. Rapid clearing is expected behind
the front and all areas Kansas should expect sunny skies by the
afternoon Wednesday. Temperatures behind the cold front will be
near normal for this time of year.

Thursday and Friday...
The end of the week looks have sunny skies for the most part as
high pressure slowly moves to the east. Temperatures will remain
near normal for Thursday but as the high pressure system moves off
to the east Thursday night, winds will shift around to the south
and the pressure gradient will tighten up considerably. The change
in the orientation of the mean flow will open up the Gulf of
Mexico and will allow for strong WAA over the region. Most models
are now agreeing on a significant warm up for Friday with most
areas expected to reach the low 70s for the first time in weeks.
This warmup will only last a day as the next frontal system will
be moving into the region Friday night and will bring the
temperatures back down. Moisture transport will be present ahead
of the front but the best area for shower and thunderstorm
activity looks to be further to the east in MO and AR Friday
night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 135 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

Saturday.....
Weekend forecast is highly depended on timing. Both the ECMWF and
GFS/GEFS show a strong cold front coming through Saturday morning
with strong CAA behind the front. The ECMWF is a few hours slower
but just as cold as the GFS. So confidence is high the
temperatures will take a tumble from Friday`s expected highs. The
main difference between the ECMWF and GFS is the ECMWF has some
trailing mid and upper level forcing and vorticity increasing the
chances of precipitation behind the front. This also increases the
chances for some snow as well as temperatures behind the front
will be cold enough to support snow in some areas. At this time
though, not confident with this and have kept POPs low enough to
keep the precipitation out of the forecast for the Saturday
afternoon.

Sunday through Tuesday....
High pressure looks to dominate the region during this period with
some decent subsidence indicated. This will keep the skies clear
for the most part and temperatures look to hover near normal for
this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 555 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

IFR and LIFR will prevail with low ceilings and reduced
visibilities through the evening hours across much of the area
ahead of a cold front which is expected to arrive across central
Kansas around midnight while exiting southeast Kansas during the
morning hours on Wed. VFR will quickly return in the wake of the
front with gusty northwest winds of 20-25 knots through at least
the morning hours in Wed. We may see a period of thunderstorms
across mainly southeast Kansas as the front moves over that area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    46  60  36  58 /  20   0   0   0
Hutchinson      45  59  34  58 /  20   0   0   0
Newton          45  58  35  57 /  30   0   0   0
ElDorado        48  59  36  58 /  40   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   52  60  37  59 /  40  10   0  10
Russell         40  58  32  59 /  10   0   0   0
Great Bend      41  58  32  59 /  10   0   0   0
Salina          43  59  33  59 /  20   0   0   0
McPherson       44  58  33  57 /  20   0   0   0
Coffeyville     54  62  37  61 /  80  40   0  10
Chanute         51  60  35  57 /  80  20   0  10
Iola            50  59  35  57 /  80  20   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    52  61  36  60 /  80  30   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...MWM



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