Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 131139
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
639 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING STRETCHES FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER WEAKER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHERN MT. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS FROM WI DOWN INTO THE TX PANHANDLE WITH AN UNSEASONABLY
COLD AIRMASS OVER THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TODAY WITH THE COLD AIRMASS
REMAINING IN PLACE. UNLIKE FRI...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUN BUT
HIGHS TODAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THE IMPULSE OVER NORTHERN MT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY SUN AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER
PIECE OF ENERGY FORECAST TO DIVE DOWN INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY MON AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS A DECENT ELEVATED
CONVECTION SIGNAL OVER NORTHEAST KS SUN NIGHT WITH MODELS SHOWING
GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE 310K
SURFACE. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MON WHICH WILL KEEP SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES AROUND TO START THE WORK WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE FOR UPPER
RIDGING TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL PLACE THE PLAINS
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN RETURN FLOW AND
WARMING TEMPS. AT THIS POINT THERE REALLY ISN`T A DISTINCT
SHORTWAVE TO GENERATE PRECIP WITH ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS HAVING TO
BE THE RESULT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THIS OCCURRING. BY WED...TEMPS WILL BE BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 WITH THESE WARMER TEMPS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

FOR ICT-HUT-SLN-CNU-RSL...PATCHY SHALLOW FOG WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE REGION THIS MORNING...MOST NOTABLY AT HUT WHERE SHALLOW VSBYS
WILL LIKELY BOUNCE AROUND DRAMATICALLY BETWEEN 1/2SM AND 10SM. FOR
NOW WILL CARRY 4SM PREVAILING WITH A TEMPO OF 2SM UNTIL 14Z. MAY
ALSO SEE MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR VSBYS BRIEFLY AT CNU BEFORE 14Z.
OTHERWISE...FEW-SCT CUMULUS AROUND 3000 FT AGL WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA BY LATE MORNING...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-135...WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  52  80  64 /   0   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      64  50  79  61 /   0   0  10  10
NEWTON          62  50  77  60 /   0   0   0  20
ELDORADO        65  51  79  63 /   0   0   0  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   65  53  79  64 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELL         64  46  78  58 /   0   0   0  20
GREAT BEND      64  48  79  59 /   0   0   0  20
SALINA          65  46  78  60 /   0   0  10  40
MCPHERSON       63  48  78  61 /   0   0  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     65  51  78  63 /   0  10  10  20
CHANUTE         65  50  77  62 /   0   0  10  20
IOLA            63  49  76  61 /   0   0  10  30
PARSONS-KPPF    65  50  77  62 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$



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