Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 181732
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1232 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

TODAY:
MAIN CONCERN IS TIMING OF CLEARING AND RESULTANT IMPACT ON MAXES
TODAY. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGEST A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRYING IN
SOUTHEAST KS...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH ACROSS MIDDLE OF
THE STATE...AND SUSPECT THERE WILL ONLY BE PARTIAL CLEARING...WITH
CUMULUS EITHER LINGERING/REDEVELOPING MIDDAY...ESPECIALLY AIDED BY
WARMER AIR ALOFT ENHANCING INVERSION. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT-SUN NIGHT:
GRADUAL WARMING TREND SEEMS PROBABLE AS HEIGHTS RISE. FORECAST
WILL BE DRY...BUT THERE ARE A NUMBER OF PESKY SMALL SCALE SIGNALS
WHICH MIGHT GENERATE ISOLATED PRECIPITATION...RANGING FROM A
SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXES...WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 700MB AND/OR
850MB AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. TIMING BETWEEN SIGNALS IS NOT
PARTICULARLY GOOD EITHER. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SLIGHT/
MARGINALLY BETTER CHANCES AROUND 1200 UTC SAT AND ALSO AROUND 1200
UTC MON. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

RETURN FLOW REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY EITHER
CLOSE TO OR IN THE FORECAST AREA STARTING TUE NIGHT AND
PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. CONVECTION ON
BOUNDARY WILL HAVE BIG IMPACT ON HOW FAR SOUTH IT GOES AND HOW
QUICKLY IT MOVES. CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH ON MODEL SOLUTIONS
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF CONVECTION AND ITS RESULTANT IMPACT ON FUTURE
CONVECTION/FRONTAL POSITION. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE NORMALS BARRING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OR STRONGER FRONT.
-HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

BKN012 CIGS CONTINUE ALONG CENTRAL KANSAS IN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AS SEEN ON THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CLOUDS AROUND 2500 FEET HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS.
THESE CLOUDS ARE ALL MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AS THE AIRMASS THAT
HAS AFFECTED THE REGION BEGINS TO SLOWLY EXIT.

TONIGHT...STATISTICAL FORECAST GUIDANCE CLEARS OUT CLOUDS. THAT
SAID...NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL
SATURATION OCCURRING. AT THIS POINT...SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT THAT
CIGS OF 1200 FEET WILL DEVELOP ACROSS KHUT...KICT...AND KCNU.
SATELLITE RIGHT NOW SUGGESTS THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MUCH SLOWER
TO LEAVE THE REGION THAN IS BEING FORECAST BY GUIDANCE...LEADING
TO THE CONFIDENCE IN TONIGHTS CLOUD FORECAST.

SATURDAY...WIND INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10-15 KNOTS. CONDITIONS
VFR.

COOK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    77  61  85  69 /  10   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      78  59  85  69 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          78  59  85  68 /  10   0  10  10
ELDORADO        78  60  84  67 /  10   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   77  60  84  68 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELL         78  62  88  71 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      78  60  87  70 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          80  62  88  70 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       79  60  86  69 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     80  60  84  66 /  10   0  10  10
CHANUTE         79  60  84  65 /  10   0  10  10
IOLA            79  60  84  65 /  10   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    79  59  84  66 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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