Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 201811 AAA
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
109 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

...Updated for Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Strong gradient winds and strong flow progged through the pbl
will require a wind advisory across much of central and south
central KS today with sustained speeds of 25 to 30 knots common
across much of central and south central Kansas. Wind gusts may
approach 40-45 knots at times across portions of central KS. The
wind advisory headline was expanded slightly south and east from
it`s previous location and extended through the evening hours.
It`ll be hard to rule out a few sprinkles or light rain showers
through at least the morning hours when looking upstream across
the southern High Plains and again tonight as another subtle
shortwave trough lifts out of the southwest. Elevated parcels
tonight are weakly capped around H8 and we could see a few
showers/storms through at least the evening hours and maintained
low pops across much of the area tonight with continued mid lvl
waa/isentropic upglide. We`re still expecting the more widespread
activity to arrive on Saturday as a cold front moves across the
area.

A mid/upper trough and associated PAC front will emerge from the
Rockies on Saturday afternoon. Models continue to be in fairly
good agreement although there remains some subtle timing
differences with the fropa. Shear/buoyancy profiles continue to
support severe storms and a fairly rapid transition into a squall
line with damaging winds gusts becoming the primary severe threat
across much of south central into southeast Kansas late Sat
afternoon/early Sat evening. Given the progressive nature of the
front, the flooding threat should be more localized but PWATs are
progged to rise above 200 percent of normal ahead of the front.

Sunday...Shortwave ridging will build over the central Plains in
the wake of the mid/upper trough bringing dry weather and
seasonably mild temperatures on Sunday with highs in the upper 60s
to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

A progressive northwest mid/upper flow regime will be in place at
the start of the period with the first fropa progged on Mon.
Another more robust cold front will arrive later in the week on
Thursday but the better Gulf moisture will remain well south of
the area. The front will usher in more seasonable air but the
chances for precipitation will remain low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Strong/gusty south winds will prevail across the region this
afternoon and well through the evening, as deep low pressure
approaches from the west. As low- level moisture continues to
increase, MVFR ceilings will increase this evening and tonight
from the south, likely eventually dropping below 2000 ft AGL for
most areas. These MVFR ceilings will linger most areas through the
morning. A strong cold front will approach from the west by late
morning, likely reaching RSL- GBD around the noon hour, switching
winds around to the northwest and gusty.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 232 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Strong southerly winds will result in a very high grassland fire
danger this afternoon for much of central and south central
Kansas. Strong southerly winds will linger into the evening hours
and a very high grassland fire danger may result this evening
across portions of central Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    77  66  74  46 /  10  20  70  40
Hutchinson      76  66  74  43 /  10  20  60  20
Newton          75  66  72  44 /  10  20  70  40
ElDorado        77  66  73  46 /  10  20  70  60
Winfield-KWLD   77  66  75  46 /  10  20  70  70
Russell         79  67  70  39 /  10  10  20  10
Great Bend      78  67  71  40 /  10  10  20  10
Salina          79  66  74  43 /  10  20  70  10
McPherson       76  66  73  42 /  10  20  70  20
Coffeyville     77  66  77  51 /   0  20  40  90
Chanute         76  65  75  50 /   0  20  60  90
Iola            76  65  75  50 /   0  20  60  90
Parsons-KPPF    77  66  76  51 /   0  20  40  90

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 2 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ032-033-047>052-067-
068-082-083.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...ADK
FIRE WEATHER...MWM



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