Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 221143
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
643 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
CONUS EXTENDING INTO THE APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE IS TRACKING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND IS APPROACHING
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
WESTERN ND DOWN INTO EASTERN CO WITH HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHOWERS AND AN ISO STORM ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD WEST TO EAST
TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY PROGRESSES EAST. PRECIP WILL START
TO AFFECT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE OPEN NATURE AND FAST
MOVEMENT OF THIS IMPULSE WILL LIMIT ANY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH
MOST SITES PICKING UP LESS THAN A HALF INCH. EVEN WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY. BY THUR
MORNING ONLY EASTERN KS WILL STILL BE EXPERIENCING PRECIP.

AFTER THE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THE MAIN WEATHER
STORY WILL BE EXTREMELY WARM TEMPS FOR FRI AND SAT. MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 18 TO 20C RANGE WHICH SHOULD
GIVE HIGHS ON BOTH DAYS IN THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE...ESPECIALLY
WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON BRINGING SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ONSHORE SUN AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE ROBUST IN DIGGING THIS FEATURE WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN MORE PRECIP FOR THE AREA MON INTO MON NIGHT.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MODEL DISCREPANCIES...WILL NOT HIT THE POP
THROTTLE TOO HARD AT THIS POINT. REGARDLESS OF WHICH ONE VERIFIES
FEEL CONFIDENT WE ARE NOT LOOKING HEAVY RAIN DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS FEATURE. A WEAK COLD FRONT BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE SHOULD KNOCK TEMPS BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY TUE.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOR ICT-SLN-HUT-CNU-RSL...PATCHY MVFR VSBYS WILL AFFECT HUT-ICT
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SCT-BKN VFR CIGS AROUND 6000 FT AGL
AFFECTING CNU THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING...PERSISTING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD AREAS OF RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FOR
NOW COVERED THIS THREAT WITH VCSH...ALTHOUGH LATER SHIFTS WILL
LIKELY NEED TO INSERT PREVAILING PRECIPITATION AND/OR TEMPO
GROUPS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REACH RSL AROUND 18Z...ICT-SLN-HUT
AROUND 22-23Z AND CNU AROUND 04Z. ONCE THE RAIN PASSES TO THE EAST
LATER TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST LOW-LEVELS MAY SUPPORT MVFR
TO POTENTIALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS...GREATEST CHANCES GENERALLY WEST OF
I-135.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  58  79  57 /  20  50  10   0
HUTCHINSON      79  57  77  56 /  30  50  10   0
NEWTON          79  58  76  57 /  30  50  10   0
ELDORADO        80  60  77  57 /  20  50  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   80  59  75  57 /  20  50  10  10
RUSSELL         78  51  74  54 /  50  50   0   0
GREAT BEND      77  52  75  54 /  50  50   0   0
SALINA          79  56  75  55 /  40  60   0   0
MCPHERSON       80  57  75  55 /  30  60  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     78  56  73  54 /  10  40  30  10
CHANUTE         77  57  76  55 /  10  50  30  10
IOLA            77  57  75  54 /  10  50  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    78  57  75  54 /  10  40  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$




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