Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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159
FXUS63 KICT 230458
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1158 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1040 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

A cold front continues to push southeast into Central KS at this
time.  Along or just behind the front, seeing some scattered showers
and a even a few rumbles of thunder. Expect this front to continue
to make steady progress to the south late this evening and
overnight, with the scattered showers and a few storms
shifting southeast as well.

Ahead of the front, calm winds and wet grounds has led to some
patchy dense ground fog developing across South Central Kansas,
especially along creeks and streams, with visibilities dropping to
less than a mile over a short distance. Latest Wichita traffic cams
showing the fog patchy at best. Not expecting this fog to last very
long, as the cold front drops southeast shifting the winds around to
the N-NW with increasing winds, mixing out the fog fairly rapidly.
Will cover this fog with a short fused graphicast.

Ketcham

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

Tonight:
One ongoing band of precipitation will continue to push east as
speed maximum departs. Another lobe of energy rotates through mean
trough. This will push surface front through and spread another
chance of rain showers/thunderstorm later this evening and overnight.
The best chances for precipitation will be in Central KS.

Tuesday:
Brief dry period in the morning, but precipitation chances will
increase the afternoon with enough instability to generate some
storms as well. Extensive clouds and cold air advection will keep
temperatures below normal once again.

Wednesday-Thursday:
Dry weather will prevail as moisture is shunted south of the
region and high pressure moves through on Wednesday. Some recovery
of temperatures on Wednesday, with more pronounced warmup on
Thursday in the return flow. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

Small chances of precipitation from Friday-Sunday morning, most
likely in Central KS Friday night. This will most likely be from
storms on the high plains Friday afternoon and evening that
propagates into the area, aided by favorable warm air/moisture
advection and sagging cold front. Another round possible Saturday
night/early Sunday, mainly suggested by slower moving GFS, with
faster ECMWF likely shunting most of the precipitation to the east
later Saturday evening. Warmest temperatures antcipated on Friday
with more abundant sunshine and warm air advection. Cooler
temperatures during the rest of the period given clouds and/or
colder air behind the front. - Howerton

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 649 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

A weak impulse in the west-NW flow has led to scattered showers
moving east across the Flint Hills, South Central KS and Southeast
Kansas.  Even with the showers expect cigs to remain VFR as this
area of showers shifts east.

Another round of showers may drop southeast in the NW flow as a
stronger area of mid level lift in Neb makes its way south this
evening and overnight, as a cold front pushes south. Passage of the
cold front will lead to some gusty NW winds early Tue into Tue
afternoon.

Post frontal wraparound cyclonic flow during the day on Tue may lead
to renewed diurnally driven showers for most of the area for Tue
afternoon, but cigs associated with the showers will stay VFR.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

Scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder will continue to
drop southeast in the NW flow as a stronger area of mid level lift
in Neb makes its way south overnight, as a cold front pushes south.
Passage of the cold front will lead to some gusty NW winds early Tue
into Tue afternoon.

Just ahead of the front, variable winds and wet grounds has led to
some patchy dense fog in the low lying area.  this may lead to a few
hours of MVFR and possibly IFR/LIFR vsbys for KICT/KHUT and KCNU.
Only think the fog will last a few hours, as the cold front
approaching from the north will shift the winds around to the NW and
mix out the low level moisture and fog.

Post frontal wraparound cyclonic flow during the day on Tue may lead
to renewed diurnally driven showers for most of the area for Tue
afternoon, but cigs associated with the showers will stay VFR.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    52  66  46  68 /  20  10   0   0
Hutchinson      51  65  45  68 /  20  20   0   0
Newton          51  65  45  66 /  20  20   0   0
ElDorado        52  65  46  66 /  20  20  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   52  67  46  68 /  20  10   0   0
Russell         49  64  42  68 /  50  20  10   0
Great Bend      50  64  43  69 /  30  20  10   0
Salina          51  65  45  68 /  50  20  10   0
McPherson       51  65  44  67 /  30  20  10   0
Coffeyville     55  67  47  67 /  40  40  10  10
Chanute         54  67  47  65 /  30  30  10  10
Iola            54  66  47  65 /  30  30  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    54  67  47  66 /  40  30  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Ketcham
SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...Ketcham



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