Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 282351
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
651 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

REGIONAL 88D`S SHOWS A PRONOUNCED MCV TRACKING OVER EXTREME SE
KS/SW MO WITH ANOTHER CIRCULATION OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA.
MEANWHILE...A MORE SYNOPTIC IMPULSE IS LIFTING OVER NORTHERN
NM/SOUTHERN CO. AT THE SURFACE...OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
PUSHED INTO THE TX PANHANDLE/SOUTHERN OK WITH RETURN FLOW ALREADY
ALLOWING FOR RECOVERY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

RAINFALL WILL COME TO AN END OVER SE KS SHORTLY AS THE MCV
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST. STORMS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO
DEVELOP OUT OVER FAR EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
WORK EAST OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FRINGES OF
THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 06Z. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THE CONVECTION
WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS LAST NIGHT AND THAT THERE MAYBE TWO
MAIN AREAS OF CONVECTION. ONE WHICH HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE
TX PANHANDLE AND WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST OVERNIGHT. THE OTHER MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA MAYBE OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS WHICH WILL BE CLOSER
TO THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
OBVIOUSLY WITH GROUNDS VERY SATURATED...FLOODING WILL BE A THREAT
WITH ANY STORMS OVERNIGHT.

ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO A COLD FRONT THAT IS SET TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRI. THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT FASTER
WITH THIS FRONT COMPARED TO THE NAM WITH THE GFS GETTING SOME
SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF. WITH THE COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS REMAINING
AND ASSOCIATED LIMITED CAPPING...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT STORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT FRI AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. THIS SCENARIO WOULD PLACE THE BEST STORM CHANCES FRI
ALONG AND SE OF THE KS TURNPIKE. BY SAT MORNING THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MUCH NEEDED
DRIER AIR FINALLY PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

BY SUN AFTERNOON...WHAT IS LEFT OF THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE OVER THE
OZARK REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS UPPER
RIDGING FINALLY SETS UP OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS THEN DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
TRACK OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND OUT INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS FOR WED NIGHT
INTO THU. WHILE SOME STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
KS...THE BETTER STORM CHANCES LOOK TO BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SHOULD START THE WORK WEEK OFF WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AS
THEY GRADUALLY CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY MID WEEK.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE AVIATION FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE THE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND THEN AGAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
ATTEMPTED TO TIME CONVECTION THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR
WESTERN TERMINALS. CONVECTION DURING THE DAY IS POSSIBLE...BUT
HAVE LEFT VCTS OUT OF THE DAY TIME FOR NOW BECAUSE OF THE
UNCERTAINTY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOUTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  78  60  72 /  50  50  60  20
HUTCHINSON      64  78  58  70 /  50  40  50  20
NEWTON          64  76  58  70 /  50  40  60  20
ELDORADO        66  77  60  72 /  60  50  60  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   65  79  61  73 /  50  50  60  30
RUSSELL         60  78  54  69 /  60  30  40  10
GREAT BEND      61  78  55  69 /  60  30  40  10
SALINA          64  78  57  70 /  50  40  50  10
MCPHERSON       63  77  57  70 /  50  40  50  20
COFFEYVILLE     66  77  63  74 /  50  60  70  40
CHANUTE         67  77  63  73 /  50  60  70  30
IOLA            66  77  62  73 /  50  60  70  30
PARSONS-KPPF    67  77  63  73 /  50  60  70  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KSZ052-053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>051.

&&

$$


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