Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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361
FXUS63 KICT 052004
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
204 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TODAY WILL
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT BEFORE ARRIVING OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA ON SATURDAY. A FEW SPRINKLES OR PERHAPS A
FEW FLURRIES MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN KS THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER BETTER LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA AND POPS WERE LOWERED ACCORDINGLY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
ALLOWING HIGHS TO QUICKLY REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 50S OVER AREAS
LACKING SNOW.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIG OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY DRIVING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. A DEEPLY MIXED PBL WITH STRONG AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE BRUNT OF COLDER AIR WILL BE
STEERED EAST OF THE REGION...HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH LOWER 40S WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
THE MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS WHILE A LARGE MID/UPPER RIDGE IMPACTS MUCH OF THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST. A PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME IS ANTICIPATED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES RESULTING IN DRY AND MILD WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EXTENDING FROM
EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS FEATURE HAS GENERATED
AN AREA OF MID CLOUDS OVER NW/NORTH CENTRAL KS WITH THIS AREA OF
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THEY WILL STAY ABOVE IFR
LEVELS AND LIKELY ABOVE MVFR LEVELS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY COME
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NW BY TONIGHT.

LAWSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 201 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THE STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND MILD TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE A VERY HIGH
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA.
WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH AS WE MOVE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    26  52  31  54 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      24  54  30  53 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          25  50  31  51 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        28  51  32  54 /  10   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   27  51  31  55 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         20  44  28  42 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      22  50  29  46 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          24  54  31  51 /  10   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       24  51  30  49 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     29  52  31  56 /  10   0   0  10
CHANUTE         27  50  32  54 /  10   0   0  10
IOLA            27  48  31  52 /  10   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    27  51  31  55 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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