Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 201954
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
254 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Water vapor imagery shows pronounced upper impulse continuing to
lift northeast across NM. Sct storms have been persistent over nw
MO/sw IA where mid level baroclinic zone is situated with good
theta-e advection along this boundary. Cold front stretches across
Nebraska from northeast to southwest.

Should see another round of MCS activity tonight north of the
forecast area with the best chances over northern Nebraska and
especially IA. Moisture will continue to stream northeast into the
high Plains tonight as the southern stream impulse continues to
lift northeast. Not out of the question some iso-sct
showers/storms try and work into south central KS after midnight
associated with this feature. Should see showers/storms increase
in coverage during the day Mon across mainly central KS.

Still good model consistency in tracking robust shortwave energy
out of southern Canada and into the Great Lakes region Mon
evening. This will allow strong cold front to push south across
the central Plains. Confidence is high that widespread storms will
accompany the front as it sinks south, especially over northeast
KS where mid level moisture transport will be maximized. While a
strong to marginally severe storm cant be ruled out Mon night,
with precipitable water over 2 inches, feel that high rainfall
rates and flooding will also be a threat. This will be especially
true over eastern portions of forecast area.

By 12z Tue the front should be over extreme southern KS about
ready to push into OK with the front and precip south of the
forecast area by Tue afternoon. Much cooler and drier air is still
expected to spill-in behind the front with highs in the 80s
expected for Tue and Wed.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Well below normal temps are expected to continue through the end
of the work week as highs top out in the 80s. There is some model
agreement in moving some upper energy out of the Rockies and
across the Plains Fri night through Sat night which will increase
shower/storm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through this forecast period. I am
forecasting an advection of upper level cirrus and overnight from
the SW part of the US and a sct deck of AC to affect KRSL and KGBD
towards morning.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    98  74  93  73 /  10  10  20  50
Hutchinson      98  74  93  70 /  10  10  20  60
Newton          97  74  93  70 /  10  10  20  60
ElDorado        97  74  92  71 /  10  10  20  60
Winfield-KWLD   98  74  93  73 /  10  10  10  30
Russell         99  74  90  67 /  10  10  30  60
Great Bend      98  74  91  68 /  10  10  30  60
Salina          99  75  93  70 /  20  10  30  60
McPherson       97  74  93  69 /  10  10  30  70
Coffeyville     95  74  92  74 /  20  20  10  30
Chanute         95  75  91  73 /  20  20  20  50
Iola            94  75  91  72 /  20  10  20  60
Parsons-KPPF    95  75  92  74 /  20  10  10  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ069>072-082-083-
091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...CWH



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