Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 111128
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
528 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 253 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Headline:
Fire Weather Watch being upgraded to Red Flag Warning with the Red
Flag Warning in effect from 11AM-7PM. Red Flag Warning includes
Allen, Neosho & Labette Counties.

Today:
Per "Headline" am hoisting the Red Flags for all of the CWA from
11AM-7PM. For details refer to the "Fire Weather" section at end
of this discussion.

A compact upper-deck shortwave is situated from Minnesota to along
the North Dakota/South Dakota border. The shortwave strengthens as
it sprints S/SE & should reach from Illinois to Missouri late this
afternoon. The shortwave will kick a weak surface trough, that
extends along the Kansas/Missouri border, across Missouri, Eastern
Oklahoma & Arkansas this afternoon. The surface trough strengthens
as it surges SE, the NW gradient in its wake will be strong. The
NW regime remains very dry & deep & would cause winds to reach
Advisory criteria across primarily Central & South-Central Kansas
this afternoon. The Wind Advisory won`t be issued as the Red Flag
Warning will discuss the strong winds.

Tonight-Wed Night:
All of the Great Plains will remain under a very strong NW regime
throughout these periods with a deepening upper-deck trough
situated over the eastern U.S. while a strong mid-upper ridge
remains parked out west. With the eastern U.S. trough undergoing
pronounced cyclogenesis the ridge may get forced slightly west to
the Pacific coast. Translation: Dry weather with above normal
highs temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 253 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Upper-deck waves will sprint SE in an assembly line manner across
the Great Plains but with moisture lacking dry weather continues.
The downstairs gradient isn`t as strong & would therefore keep the
grassland fire danger in check.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 528 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Northwest winds will increase by midday and be strong and gusty
through the afternoon. An increase in high cloudiness is expected
today. A cold front will move south across the area during the
afternoon with SCT-BKN stratocu affecting far eastern Kansas into
early this evening. However bases and cigs are expected to be VFR.
The gusty north to northwest winds will subside this evening
across the area with winds backing to westerly across central
Kansas toward the end of the forecast valid period.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 253 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Markedly increasing NW winds, likely sustained from 25 to 35 mph
with gusts 40 to 45 mph gusts, will continue to spread very dry
air across Kansas this afternoon. This would produce an Extreme
Grassland Fire Danger in most areas, most certainly in Central &
South-Central Kansas. To `air` on side of caution, and per
collaboration with Springfield & Tulsa, have hoisted the Red Flags
for Allen, Neosho & Labette counties as well with the Red Flag
warning in effect from 11AM-7PM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    61  29  51  30 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      61  27  52  29 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          59  27  49  30 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        60  28  48  30 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   62  28  50  30 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         59  24  54  29 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      59  24  54  29 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          59  27  51  29 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       59  26  51  28 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     62  29  47  29 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         60  28  45  29 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            58  28  44  29 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    62  28  46  29 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CST this
evening for KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...KED
FIRE WEATHER...EPS


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