Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 281142
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
542 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TODAY
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN TO MODERATE. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO SEASONABLE VALUES AROUND 40
WHILE LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S.

A MID/UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE PACNW EARLY THIS MORNING IS
PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AREA ON
MONDAY WHILE A SURGE OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS. TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL PLUMMET
WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED WITHIN A FAVORABLY DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE SLRS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 17-18:1 OR HIGHER. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD 1-2
INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND MUCH OF CENTRAL KANSAS.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY EARLY TUESDAY WITH ONLY A FEW
FLURRIES ANTICIPATED. HIGHS ON TUESDAY MAY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE LOCATIONS ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA STATE LINE RISE INTO THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WED-THU AS MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR IS
RECYCLED ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE
WHILE REMAINING WELL BELOW CLIMATE NORMALS WITH VALUES RETURNING TO
THE 20S ON WED AND CLIMBING INTO THE 30S BY THU.

A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST IS PROGGED TO MOVE
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE MORE NORTHERN GFS TRACK
AND THE PHASE/AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE
DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY. A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING
TO SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI-SAT BUT THE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF ARCTIC BLASTS MAY ARRIVE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST TODAY AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AREA WIDE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    41  20  37  15 /   0   0  10  20
HUTCHINSON      41  19  33  11 /   0   0  20  30
NEWTON          39  20  34  12 /   0   0  10  30
ELDORADO        40  21  38  15 /   0   0  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   41  22  41  18 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL         40  17  25   4 /   0   0  50  50
GREAT BEND      40  17  27   6 /   0   0  50  50
SALINA          41  19  30   9 /   0   0  20  50
MCPHERSON       40  19  32  10 /   0   0  20  40
COFFEYVILLE     39  22  43  21 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         39  21  41  19 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            38  21  39  18 /   0   0  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    39  22  42  21 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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