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000
FXUS63 KICT 180517
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1217 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS AROUND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION IN CONCERT WITH DIURNAL COOLING
SHOULD ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO SPREAD/DEVELOP NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG AFTER 3-4AM ESPECIALLY FOR
UPSLOPE-FAVORED REGIONS WEST OF I-135. COULD POTENTIALLY SEE
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 14...LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR.

THINKING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT-SAT MORNING
WILL BE SMALL...DUE TO STOUT LOW-LEVEL CAPPING AND MID-LEVEL
RIDGING. HOWEVER...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY
TOWARD DAWN AS MODEST 850-700MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION COMMENCES AHEAD
OF A SUBTLE UPPER WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PER
NAM...PARCELS LIFTING FROM NEAR 800MB MAY ONLY BE WEAKLY/MODESTLY
CAPPED...SO CANNOT RULE IT OUT. IF ANYTHING CAN DEVELOP...SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHWEST MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO EJECT NORTHEAST...ACTING TO SHARPEN
AND BULGE A DRYLINE OVER WESTERN KS. CONSEQUENTLY...IF THE CAP CAN
BE BREACHED...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AFTER 4PM. STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY EXTREME INSTABILITY (OWING TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RICH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE) COUPLED WITH 30-40 KTS OF SHEAR ORIENTED
PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE WOULD FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND RICH MOISTURE
WOULD ALSO FAVOR A FEW TORNADOES. QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST WILL THIS
POTENTIAL ACTIVITY REMAIN SEVERE DURING THE EVENING? THINKING THE
HIGHEST THREAT WILL BE WEST OF THE I-135 CORRIDOR...AS *STOUT*
CAPPING WILL LIKELY DISCOURAGE PROGRESSION MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN
THAT.

PER NAM/ECMWF/GFS CONSENSUS...THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS EAST...SHIFTING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT GENERALLY
ALONG/EAST OF THE I-135 CORRIDOR FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS A
2ND A MORE IMPRESSIVE UPPER WAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST. EVEN THOUGH THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS HIGH...THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE
THREAT REMAINS IN QUESTION DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR...1) VEERED OUT
LOW-LEVEL WINDS...2) SQUIRRELY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW...AND 3)
GREATEST DRYLINE CONVERGENCE OVER OKLAHOMA. GFS WOULD SUGGEST THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR HIGHER-END SEVERE WEATHER WITH BETTER MID-LEVEL
FLOW AND BACKED SURFACE WINDS...WHILE NAM IS THE LEAST FAVORABLE FOR
HIGHER-END SEVERE WEATHER. DUE TO THIS DISAGREEMENT...DO NOT WANT TO
OVERHYPE...BUT WANT TO STRESS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR HIGHER-END
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A
FEW TORNADOES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

PER MODEL CONSENSUS...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES COULD CONTINUE OVER
SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS BOUNDARY STALLS IN RESPONSE
TO UPPER ENERGY CONTINUING TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. ONCE
AGAIN...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WOULD PROMOTE SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH
SUSPECT HIGHER-END SEVERE THREAT IS LOWER DUE TO ORIENTATION OF
FRONT.

A RETURN TO SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED IN WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM FOR EARLY-MID WEEK...WITH SEASONABLE HIGHS IN 70S TO LOW 80S.
SUSPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LOW AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION BY MID/LATE WEEK...ALTHOUGH RETURN 850-700MB FLOW MAY PROVIDE
A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION BY LATE WEEK.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER AS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR
CIGS ARE BEGINNING TO IMPACT KINGMAN AND WELLINGTON AND WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH BETWEEN 06-08Z POSSIBLY
LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 09Z...ESPECIALLY FOR KHUT-
KRSL AS THEY WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO HELP SCOUR OUT THE LOW CIGS BY
AROUND 15Z ON SAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  86  60  82 /  20  50  40  40
HUTCHINSON      68  85  59  81 /  30  40  30  30
NEWTON          68  85  59  80 /  20  50  50  30
ELDORADO        69  85  60  81 /  20  50  60  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   69  87  63  83 /  20  50  50  40
RUSSELL         66  83  56  79 /  40  30  20  20
GREAT BEND      65  83  56  79 /  40  30  20  20
SALINA          69  85  59  81 /  20  40  40  20
MCPHERSON       68  85  59  80 /  20  40  40  30
COFFEYVILLE     70  87  65  83 /  20  50  60  50
CHANUTE         70  85  64  82 /  20  50  60  50
IOLA            69  84  64  82 /  20  50  60  50
PARSONS-KPPF    70  85  65  82 /  20  50  60  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$