Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 181750
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1150 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 313 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Today:
Still anticipate fairly rapid end to precipitation and clearing
skies this afternoon in wake of departing shortwave and influx of
drier air and subsidence. Winds should diminish late in the
afternoon, with advisory still looking on track given good cold
air advection/momentum transfer. Tonight downslope flow will make
lows tricky given radiational cooling vs mixing. Going forecast
looked good.

Sunday:
Ridge axis will moving across the forecast area during the day with
winds increasing/backing. Temperatures should rebound given
downslope component. Surface pressure gradient should keep winds up
overnight, keeping lows above normal.

Monday:
Good downslope flow anticipated with very dry air aloft and brisk
southwest flow. Adjusted highs up, but suspect the western third
of forecast area are still too cool.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 313 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Medium range models remain in decent agreement with building
western ridge and deepening eastern trough. 00 UTC GFS is a bit
faster than 00 UTC ECMWF with this evolution. Both suggest next
cold front will traverse the area Monday night with cold air
advection on Tuesday. Surface ridge axis moves across early on
Wednesday with weak return flow developing. Both models continue
to flatten upper ridge and expand it east through this period.
00Z ECMWF has come around closer to GFS with shortwave cutting
through western ridge late in the period and beyond. Given run to
run variability, confidence from Friday on is low. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1150 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

NW winds sustained ~25kts with 30-35kt gusts are likely across all
terminals until late this afternoon (~22Z) as an intense surface
cyclone that at 17Z is centered over the IN/OH border, lifts E/NE
across NY. As the cyclone continues its E/NE jaunt, the NW winds
will rapidly diminish from 22-23Z to 7-13kts. The widespread MVFR
cigs that have covered most of Central & Ern KS this morning will
clear the KS/MO border ~20Z. Excellent weather slated for all
areas from late this afternoon onward.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 313 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

GFDI values will be very high area wide today given strong/gusty
winds and dry air. Gusty winds ahead of the next front on Monday
will likely result in very high GFDI values over most of the area
once again. -Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    55  29  57  37 /  30   0   0   0
Hutchinson      55  28  58  36 /  40   0   0   0
Newton          52  28  56  36 /  30   0   0   0
ElDorado        53  29  56  37 /  40   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   54  30  57  37 /  30   0   0   0
Russell         53  25  60  33 /  30   0   0   0
Great Bend      53  25  60  33 /  30   0   0   0
Salina          55  27  59  37 /  40   0   0   0
McPherson       54  26  58  35 /  40   0   0   0
Coffeyville     54  31  56  37 /  50   0   0   0
Chanute         53  30  55  36 /  50   0   0   0
Iola            53  30  54  36 /  50   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    53  30  55  37 /  50   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...EPS
FIRE WEATHER...PJH


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