Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 292344
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
644 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WILL BE TEMPERATURES. SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA
TONIGHT...AND IOWA AND MISSOURI ON THURSDAY. THE MAIN LIFT/MOISTURE
WITH THIS WAVE SHOULD REMAIN NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING MAINLY A WINDSHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH NOT MUCH
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. A MUCH MORE POTENT PV ANOMALY WILL SHIFT OUT
OF CENTRAL CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD COOLER/DRIER CANADIAN AIR
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS
FRIDAY (40S/50S) WILL BE ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON
THURSDAY WHICH WILL BE QUITE NOTICEABLE. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL
BUILD INTO EASTERN KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S FOR LOWS. FREEZE WARNINGS ARE
PROBABLE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY...AS THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
APPROACHING THE PLAINS. LEE TROUGHING/PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE SUNDAY LEADING TO VERY GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AREA-WIDE AND
MILDER AIR RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE 12Z GFS REMAINS
FASTER TO MOVE THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS MONDAY-TUESDAY...COMPARED TO THE SLOWER 12Z ECMWF. THE GFS
WAS ALSO A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER PATTERN LATE IN THE
WEEK. BOTH MODELS HAVE SHOWN THEIR OWN RUN-RUN CONSISTENCY AND THE
DISPARITY BETWEEN THEM LEADS TO ABOVE AVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY...REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES/TIMING. FOR NOW...WILL
USE A BLEND OF THESE MODELS. MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC FRONT...WITH THE BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS EASTWARD. THIS WILL LIKELY BE
WHERE THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIST MONDAY-TUESDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONSIDERABLY LOWER IN CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EAST AS AN UPPER IMPULSE TRACKS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
THE OZARK REGION BY THU AFTERNOON. THE ONLY IMPACT THIS FEATURE
WILL HAVE FOR AVIATION WILL BE TO FLIP WINDS AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST THU MORNING INTO EARLY THU AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    44  69  37  51 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      41  68  36  49 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          43  68  35  48 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        43  68  36  49 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   44  70  37  53 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         41  66  34  49 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      41  67  34  50 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          43  68  34  46 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       41  68  35  47 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     42  71  39  50 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         41  68  37  48 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            42  68  37  47 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    41  70  38  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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