Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 132044
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
244 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 229 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

Current satellite water vapor imagery shows a upper level wave over
Alberta/Saskatchewan diving southward with-in the northwest flow
regime aloft. This system will race across Kansas for late Thursday
afternoon/night, and there is enough vertical motion which could
try to generate some light rain. Temperatures could be cold
enough in the low-levels with a light rain/snow mix possible for
Central Kansas on Thursday night. This system is fleet-footed so
any precipitation that falls would be very light/minimal with no
impacts.

Heading into Friday winds will switch around to a westerly direction
which should help warm temperatures due to downslope effects. The
warm above normal temperatures will continue into Saturday with
daytime highs possibly rising into the 60s for some locations.
Meanwhile models are showing another upper level wave emerging from
the southwestern states and lifting northeast towards Kansas for
Saturday night. The better precipitation signal favors more of
Southeast Kansas then other parts of the state at this juncture.
Light rain looks to be the predominate type however parts of
Central Kansas could see some light snow for late Saturday night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 229 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

Models show a upper level wave moving across the region on Sunday
with decent rain chances for mainly Southeast Kansas, and some light
snow possible for Central Kansas Sunday morning. Snow accumulations
are not looking good with this setup so would expect very light snow
at best given this latest model run. Otherwise dry weather should
prevail for Monday-Wednesday with above normal temperatures back
in play for the Central Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1121 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

Northwest winds will increase across the entire region for this
afternoon then diminish around sunset. Mid-level clouds will begin
to spread southward into Central Kansas by Thursday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 229 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

The combination of dry/warm air and gusty northwest winds has
created Very High Grassland Fire danger levels for the entire
region this afternoon. The winds will quickly diminish around
sunset and end the grassland fire risk. Very High Grassland Fire
danger will be possible again Saturday afternoon across parts of
Southeast Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    31  47  27  52 /   0  10  20   0
Hutchinson      29  46  24  52 /   0  10  20   0
Newton          29  45  26  51 /   0  10  30   0
ElDorado        29  45  27  50 /   0  10  20   0
Winfield-KWLD   30  47  27  51 /   0   0  20   0
Russell         28  45  21  55 /   0  20  10   0
Great Bend      28  46  21  55 /   0  20  20   0
Salina          28  44  25  52 /   0  20  20   0
McPherson       28  45  23  52 /   0  10  30   0
Coffeyville     32  45  28  49 /   0   0  10   0
Chanute         31  43  28  48 /   0  10  10   0
Iola            30  43  28  47 /   0  10  10   0
Parsons-KPPF    32  44  28  49 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...CDJ
FIRE WEATHER...CDJ



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