Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 251134
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
534 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DOWN
INTO SW TX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MON WITH GUSTY NW WINDS AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE
UPPER IMPULSE APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER
SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL MOVE VERY QUICKLY SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE
APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BY 00Z WED. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
INCREASING MID CLOUDS AND MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES TO CENTRAL KS AS IT
SLIDES SOUTHEAST. BY 12Z WED THIS IMPULSE WILL BE APPROACHING THE
OZARK REGION. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE WED AND THU BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. THE POLAR AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO
PRIMARILY AFFECT THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT BY ONLY A FEW
DEGREES FOR BOTH WED AND THU. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT WE ARE
NOT LOOKING AT ANY WEATHER RELATED TRAVEL ISSUES FOR BOTH WED AND
THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

STRONG ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS IN TRACKING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA ON FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT.
THIS WILL ALLOW POLAR AIR TO SPILL SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SAT...POSSIBLY MAKING IT DOWN TO OUR AREA BY SUN. IT STILL
DOESN`T LOOK LIKE WE WILL BE DEALING WITH ANY IMPACTFUL WINTER
WEATHER THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 531 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO 15 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
DRIVING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST AT 10-15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE CEILINGS LOWER
TO 8-9K FT BRIEFLY. A TRANSIENT FLURRY OR SPRINKLE MAY BE
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    50  33  48  25 /   0  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      50  33  47  23 /   0  10   0   0
NEWTON          48  33  45  23 /   0  10  10   0
ELDORADO        51  34  47  25 /   0  10  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   49  33  49  26 /   0  10   0   0
RUSSELL         52  30  44  20 /   0  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      51  31  46  21 /   0  10   0   0
SALINA          51  33  45  22 /   0  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       50  33  45  23 /   0  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     49  34  50  26 /   0  10  10   0
CHANUTE         47  32  48  25 /   0  10  10   0
IOLA            46  32  46  24 /   0  10  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    49  33  49  24 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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