Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 190807
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
307 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 153 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Water Vapor imagery shows the next frontal system approaching the
region this afternoon. Southerly winds will pick up ahead of the
front with the tight pressure gradient. There is weak mid level
trough with some moisture transport along the Oklahoma state line this
morning that is strong enough to support some morning showers and
thunderstorms which should dissipate by mid morning as the
moisture transport weakens. This afternoon the gradient will
tighten up as the front approaches. This will allow boundary
layer winds to mix down to the surface during the afternoon and
are expected to reach advisory level. Despite the proximity of
this weak cold front, moisture transport is very weak and CIN is
rather high. This will keep the shower and thunderstorms chances
down afternoon. Temperatures will not fall much behind the front
and temperatures are expected to remain near or just above normal
for through Thursday. This frontal boundary will be very slow to
move through the region and moisture transport with this front
will remain weak. However, forcing and instability look to improve
by Wednesday afternoon which will bring the chances for some
shower and thunderstorm activity in the eastern portions of the
CWA Wednesday night and early Thursday.


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 153 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Long range continues to be rather warm for this time of year
through Saturday. Return flow from the Gulf of Mexico will
establish itself and allow moisture transport to slowly pick up
ahead of the next frontal system. Both the ECMWF and the GFS
models clearly indicate a rather slow progression for this frontal
system. This will keep southerly flow over the region and
temperatures are expected to remain near or above normal. Kept
POPs in check through Saturday and expect the shower and
thunderstorm risk to increase Sunday and into the Monday. Once
this front finally moves through Sunday afternoon and into Monday,
temperatures will fall below normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

S winds will increase considerably Tue morning as sfc troffing
likewise strengthens from along the WY/SD border to along the NM/
TX border. Sustained speeds ~25kts w/ ~35kt gusts are likely along
& W of I-35/I-135 from ~18Z thru early Tue eve. Winds across SE KS
won`t be as strong (~20kts). All areas to remain VFR but with very
high to extreme grassland fire danger across all but SE KS Tue
afternoon be alert for smoke, especially at KRSL & KGBD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    68  94  71  90 /  20   0   0   0
Hutchinson      65  94  68  88 /  20   0   0   0
Newton          66  92  70  88 /  20  10   0  10
ElDorado        68  91  72  90 /  20  10   0  10
Winfield-KWLD   68  93  73  91 /  20  10   0  10
Russell         66  97  61  85 /  20   0   0   0
Great Bend      65  97  62  86 /  10   0   0   0
Salina          68  95  69  88 /  40   0   0   0
McPherson       65  94  68  87 /  20   0   0   0
Coffeyville     68  91  74  92 /  10  10  10  10
Chanute         68  90  72  90 /  10  10  10  10
Iola            67  90  72  89 /  10  10  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    68  91  74  91 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...EPS



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