Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 040445
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1145 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THIS AFTERNOON INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NE ONTARIO/
SRN HUDSON BAY. TWO SHORTWAVES EXTENDED FROM THE LOW. A POSITIVELY
TILTED UPPER-DECK SHORTWAVE WAS DRAPED FROM JUST N OF THE OH
VALLEY...ACROSS SRN KS...TO NRN NM WHILE A 2ND...MUCH MORE COMPACT
SHORTWAVE EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO TO NRN MN. A SHARP UPPER
DECK RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES. DOWNSTAIRS...A WEAK SE-
MOVING SFC TROF HAD ENTERED CENTRAL KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE SHARP...POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER-DECK TROF EXTENDING FROM JUST
N OF THE OH VALLEY...THRU KS...TO NRN NM WILL SURGE SE ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING THEN ACROSS THE LOWER APPALACHIANS ON
WED. IMMEDIATELY IN ITS WAKE THE 2ND SHORTWAVE WILL SURGE SSE FROM
THE UPPER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE OH VALLEY WED MORNING
WHERE/WHEN IT`LL UNDERGO RAPID CYCLOGENESIS. SUCH A HIGH-AMPLITUDE
PATTERN WOULD CAUSE AN ATMOSPHERIC "TRAFFIC JAM" WITH THE UPPER
DECK RIDGE LIKELY NOT REACHING THE WRN PLAINS UNTIL THU & CENTRAL
PLAINS ON FRI. THE GRADUALLY INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG
RIDGE AXIS WOULD PRODUCE NICE WEATHER THE REST OF THE WORK-WEEK &
WITH A MID-UPPER CYCLONE EJECTING A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES NE ACROSS
THE SRN ROCKIES AS IT DROPS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST THU NIGHT &
FRI...FRONT RANGE TROFFING WOULD STRENGTHEN. IT`LL GET MUCH WARMER
ACROSS KICT COUNTRY AS THE WEEKEND NEARS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

NEXT WEEKEND:
THE CHALLENGE IS TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF THUNDERSTORMS. WITH SUCH A
HIGH AMPLITUDE MID-UPPER PATTERN DOMINATING MOST OF THE CONUS ANY
SHORTWAVES EJECTING NE FROM NM WOULD LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY
ENCOUNTER THE STRONG DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED FROM THE GULF
COAST ALL THE WAY TO SASKATCHEWAN. ON SUN THE PRIMARY MID TO UPPER
SHORTWAVE IS SCHEDULED TO LIFT NE ACROSS NM SUN AFTERNOON & EVE.
THIS WOULD INDUCE INTENSE SFC CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER
ON SUN WITH WARM FRONTOGENESIS OCCURRING ACROSS KS. BY THIS TIME
THE MID-UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE SHIFTED FURTHER E ACROSS THE MS
VALLEY. AT THIS TIME STILL ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WRN PLAINS SAT AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORMS PERHAPS
ADVANCING AS FAR E AS CENTRAL KS LATE SAT NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY HIGH THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FOR MOST...IF NOT ALL...
AREAS THRU TUE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON SEVERITY IS NOT & WILL
EXPRESS THIS IN THE HWO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WIND
SHIFT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH KCNU...WITH WINDS INCREASING
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE. SOME STRATOCUMULUS ANTICIPATED
ALONG/EAST OF I-35 WHERE SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS.
WINDS WILL DECREASE/VEER AROUND SUNSET. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    50  75  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      49  74  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          50  73  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        50  74  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   49  75  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         47  75  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      47  76  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          48  74  46  79 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       49  73  47  78 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     50  75  42  75 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         50  73  43  75 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            50  72  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    50  74  43  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EPS
SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...PJH



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