Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 222038
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
238 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 211 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

As the upper level low that has been dominating the synoptic pattern
across mid-America for the past couple of days exits Kansas to the
east and makes its way across the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys
tonight and tomorrow, the tightened pressure gradient will begin to
ease off this evening bringing wind speeds back down overnight
tonight. Water Vapor imagery shows that the bulk of remaining
moisture on the south end of the system is currently propagating
across northern Kansas and eastern Nebraska with a few transient
bands pushing through further southward, which has allowed a few
bands of light snowfall to make their way across south central
Kansas through the early afternoon. By this evening, all precip is
expected to end central, south central, and southeast Kansas as
skies clear from west to east across the region.

Over the next few days, expect a gradual warming trend as an upper
ridge pattern sets up across the western half of the CONUS through
the middle of the week. Downslope west/northwest flow will work to
moderate temperatures to near or above normal values. With high
pressure building into the region, expect mostly sunny skies through
Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 211 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Looking ahead past Thursday, the ridge pattern in the western CONUS
is expected to become more zonal, which combined with southerly
surface flow will allow temps to remain above normal through the
remainder of the forecast period.

The next chance of precip for the area will come Friday evening into
Saturday as a rapidly moving system makes its way across the
northern Plains. Moisture is expected to be limited with this
system, but there is a slight chance of rain showers with occasional
light snow in southeast Kansas and the Flint Hills, though no
significant impacts are expected at this time. After the system
rapidly moves off to our east, another round of quiet weather is in
store heading into the beginning of next week. Southerly flow is
expected to persist keeping high temperatures in the upper 40s to
mid 50s, ending the month of January on a mild note after an
exceptionally cold beginning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 155 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Some MVFR cigs continued across portions of central and much of
south central and southeast KS. Flight categories are expected to
increase through the afternoon and evening as the storm system
lifts away from the area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 211 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Elevated southwesterly winds, cured grasses, warm temperatures,
and low relative humidity on Thursday will result in very high
grassland fire danger across the entire area. Some areas of
central Kansas and the Flint Hills will experience very high
grassland danger Friday as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    26  47  24  54 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      26  46  23  54 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          25  45  23  52 /  10   0   0   0
ElDorado        26  46  24  52 /  10   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   26  49  24  54 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         23  44  20  54 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      22  45  20  55 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          25  44  23  52 /  10   0   0   0
McPherson       25  44  21  52 /  10   0   0   0
Coffeyville     27  49  25  54 /  10   0   0   0
Chanute         27  46  25  52 /  10   0   0   0
Iola            27  45  25  51 /  10   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    27  48  25  52 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAV
LONG TERM...TAV
AVIATION...MWM
FIRE WEATHER...TAV


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