Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 060805
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
305 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN STARTING
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CONTINUING PERIODICALLY THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WATCH
WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS
EXTENDING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA EARLY THIS
MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES TODAY WILL HELP DRIVE THE
FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. BY 00Z...THE NAM/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT DRIVING
THE FRONT NEAR THE KANSAS TURNPIKE CORRIDOR. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
ARE PROGGED TO POOL INTO THE LOWER 70S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT
RESULTING IN MLCAPES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG.  MINIMAL CINH/STRONG
BUOYANCY ALONG WITH LOW-LVL MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PWATS ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 2.25 INCHES OR THE
99TH PERCENTILE THIS EVENING WHILE THE LAYER WARM CLOUD DEPTH
DEEPENS CONSIDERABLY ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THIS DEEP CLOUD LAYER
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING AS H9-H75 FLOW REMAINS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT
AND MESO-BETA ELEMENT VECTORS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15
KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A LARGE AREA OF
RAINFALL EXCEEDING 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 3
INCHES APPEARS LIKELY.

TUE-WED...HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION MAY RESIDE SOUTH OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A STABLE POST-FRONTAL REGIME
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF KANSAS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION INCLUDING ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED. THE GFS MAINTAINS
THE MORE PRONOUNCED H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS MAINLY SE KANSAS
WHILE THE NAM WOULD INCLUDE MORE OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS A MID/UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
ANCHORED ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS CONFINED
TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL KEEP WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ALLOWING THE TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE
TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
RETROGRADE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING
THICKNESS PROGGED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
RISING TEMPERATURES AND LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION AS
WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AS SOUTHERLY BREEZES CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR MON WILL BE A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO
CENTRAL KS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...REACHING KRSL AND KSLN BY
AROUND 17-18Z/MON.  CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY LOOKS TO INCREASE
ALONG THIS FRONT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MON
AFTERNOON.  SO WILL MENTION A VCTS FOR BOTH KRSL/KSLN BY AROUND 18Z
AND SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE NW.  THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS BY LATE MON AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE A VCTS
FOR THE KHUT/KICT TAFS AFTER 20-21Z.

EXPECT TO SEE A WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR MON
EVENING FOR MOST TAF LOCATIONS. SO HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH
PREVAILING THUNDER FOR THE KICT/KHUT AND KCNU TAFS GIVEN THE HIGH
CONFIDENCE FORECAST....AS NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRAIN ALONG THE FRONT.

KETCHAM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    89  65  74  62 /  70  90  40  50
HUTCHINSON      88  63  75  60 /  80  90  30  30
NEWTON          88  63  73  61 /  80  90  40  40
ELDORADO        89  65  73  62 /  70  90  50  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   91  65  74  63 /  70  90  60  60
RUSSELL         83  61  77  57 /  80  50  10  10
GREAT BEND      84  61  76  59 /  80  60  10  20
SALINA          87  64  77  60 /  90  80  10  20
MCPHERSON       87  62  75  60 /  80  80  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     90  69  75  65 /  50  90  80  90
CHANUTE         89  67  73  65 /  70  90  80  80
IOLA            89  67  72  64 /  70  90  70  80
PARSONS-KPPF    89  68  74  65 /  60  90  80  90

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ069>072-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$



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