Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 260859
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
359 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Today:
A mid-level ridge will gradually amplify as it moves east from the
Western Plains to the Missouri Valley. This would keep any chances
for thunderstorms in check across the immediate KICT Neighborhood.
Thunderstorms that do develop would do so over the Western Plains
where no doubt much closer to a surface cyclone strengthening in
response to a compact mid-level shortwave moving east across
Colorado. Max temperatures may prove problematic for a weak
surface low, centered over North-Central Oklahoma at 3 AM, will
continue to move east enabling a cold front to sag SE. The front
would likely stall in an east/west manner as it settles into
Oklahoma this afternoon. The resulting NE winds, albeit fairly
weak, dictate undercutting guidance 3-5F.

This Weekend:
Headline: Strong/severe thunderstorm potential.

With the Western Plains mid-level shortwave scooting east across
Western KS, the east/west oriented stationary front draped across
Oklahoma would begin to lift slowly north into Southern KS late
tonight. Although the "lead` shortwave would shear as it continues
to lift E/NE an east/west oriented elevated front would remain
parked across Central KS. With rich moisture pooling along the
front, thunderstorms occurring across the Western Plains would
likely evolve into an MCS that`ll surge east across Central KS
late tonight. Pronounced directional shear would support severe
thunderstorm across Central KS late tonight. A 2nd, and somewhat
stronger mid-level shortwave will move east from the Western
Plains across KS on Sat. This would push its attendant weak
surface low east across much of Oklahoma & enable the surface
front to pivot in a counter-clockwise manner from Central MO,
through Southeast KS, to the TX Panhandle. Ample moisture will
combine with pronounced warming SE of the front to cause rapid
destabilization, especially across Southeast KS, on Sat. As such,
severe thunderstorms are very likely across Southeast KS Sat
afternoon & Sat Night with very large hail, perhaps even tennis
ball sized, occurring late Sat Afternoon. With the front lurking
in the premises, a few tornadoes are also possible.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

An amplified upper level pattern beginning this extended period
relaxes some toward Wednesday/Thursday. A deep upper trough that
extend from the Great Lakes to the Tennessee Valley early in the
week, should keep the rich Gulf moisture down over the coastal
states. The upper low over the Great Lakes is progged to weaken
and lift northeast by Thursday. This should allow for southern
return flow and increased moisture from the Gulf up into Kansas by
Thursday. Will maintain slight chances of showers/storms Tuesday
into Tuesday night, with the medium range models hinting at a weak
front dropping into the region with a mid-level baroclinic zone
also present. Perhaps better chances of showers/storms by late in
the week. Temperatures will be near seasonal climatology during
the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

The thunderstorms will gradually diminish across central Kansas
for the late night hours. Meanwhile winds will gradually switch to
the north for this morning then switch around to the northeast
late this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    85  65  84  59 /   0  10  20  10
Hutchinson      85  62  80  56 /   0  10  30  10
Newton          84  63  81  57 /   0  10  30  10
ElDorado        84  64  83  59 /   0  10  30  20
Winfield-KWLD   85  65  86  60 /   0  10  10  20
Russell         82  59  76  53 /   0  40  30  10
Great Bend      83  60  77  54 /   0  30  30  10
Salina          85  62  80  56 /   0  20  40  10
McPherson       84  62  80  56 /   0  20  30  10
Coffeyville     84  66  87  62 /  10  20  40  40
Chanute         83  65  85  61 /  10  10  40  30
Iola            83  64  83  60 /  10  10  40  30
Parsons-KPPF    84  66  86  62 /  10  20  40  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...CDJ


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