Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 280815
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
315 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

While the main MCS was tracking across southeast Nebraska early
this morning as expected, the trailing convection has made its
way into central Kansas. Latest radar trends and short term
guidance suggests it will get as far south as the highway 50
corridor and perhaps to highway 54. While a brief veering of
the wind is expected any outflow boundary should be rather weak
this morning with a mean southerly low level flow and very warm
conditions expected this afternoon. Maxs will get close to the
century mark again in central Kansas with heat indices as well. A
weak shortwave aloft will affect the central Plains again this
evening/tonight. The effective surface front/trough is expected to
be situated just north and west of the forecast area near peak
heating with a moderate to very unstable airmass over central
Kansas. The instability and shear combo will support a few severe
storms just before sunset with another area of convection and
potential MCS development organizing a bit further west across the
high Plains this evening before moving/propagating eastward again
across central Kansas tonight. This activity could also be
marginally severe with warmer temperatures aloft likely limiting
development over far southern Kansas.

A more significant upper trof is still expected to move across
the northern/central Plains on Thursday into Thursday night. This
will provide the best chances for convection with severe weather
and heavy rainfall across the area.

In the wake of the convective complex late Thursday night, the
effective surface cold front should push south into Oklahoma
during Friday. This should also shunt the better precip chances
south as well, though will hold on to some lingering chances
across southeast Kansas on Friday.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Dry weather is expected across the area on Saturday in the
wake of the departing upper trof moving to the Great Lakes
and lower Ohio Valley with the deeper low level/surface
moisture pushed well south across the southern Plains.
Periodic chances for convection should return on Sunday
through early next week under the influence of transient
shortwaves in the west-northwest flow aloft. While the
continuity is not as strong with this forecast cycle, there
is still general support for general geopotential height
rises/building upper ridge across the central Plains by the
middle of next week.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

All Central & South-Central KS terminals will experience S winds
sustained from 17-25kt throughout the night with lower velocities
at KCNU. Around 03Z, a low-level jet will hit the throttle across
all areas with 45-50kts encountered. The low-level jet will slowly
"diminish" ~15Z when increased mixing would enable S winds to
reach 22-30kts sustained in most areas with 30-35kt gusts. The srn
portion of an MCS that is moving E across most of Nebraska has
extended into NW & Wrn KS. These TSRA are likely to impact KRSL &
KGBD from 07-09Z. Have sufficient confidence to assign "TEMPO
2807/2809 5SM TSRA" to both terminals during this 2-hour period.
Am not as confident the TSRA will reach as far as KSLN but have
assigned "VCTS" to this terminal from 09Z-12Z. All areas to
maintain VFR status through Wed evening.

ES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    94  72  96  68 /  10  10   0  60
Hutchinson      96  71  97  66 /  10  20  10  70
Newton          94  71  95  66 /  20  20  10  70
ElDorado        91  71  93  68 /  10  10   0  70
Winfield-KWLD   92  73  94  70 /   0  10   0  50
Russell         97  68  95  63 /  20  40  10  50
Great Bend      97  69  96  63 /  10  30  10  50
Salina          97  70  97  66 /  20  30  20  70
McPherson       95  71  96  65 /  20  20  10  70
Coffeyville     90  72  92  71 /   0  10   0  50
Chanute         89  71  91  69 /  10  10   0  60
Iola            89  70  91  69 /  10  10   0  60
Parsons-KPPF    90  72  91  70 /   0  10   0  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...EPS


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