Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 251951
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
251 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Water vapor imagery shows shortwave energy digging over the
southern Rockies and will be moving out over the central/southern
high Plains late this afternoon/early this evening. Strong cold
front currently stretches along the Kansas Turnpike and will
continue tracking southeast.

Storms are expected to develop along the front as it moves east of
the Turnpike. We currently remain capped over se KS and will
likely take strong convergence along the front to get storms to
pop. Still thinking that after 4pm and likely closer to 5-6pm
should the most likely time for initiation. Should be plenty of
instability and effective shear for severe storms with large hail
and damaging winds the main threats. Majority of convection
should be southeast of the forecast area by midnight with some
additional showers also possible further west over the remainder
of central and south central KS.

By 12z Wed, cold front will extend through the Ozark region with
only far SE KS still having a chance for a few storms with this
chance east of the area by early Wed afternoon. The bigger story
Wed will be much cooler temps with highs expected to be 10-15
degrees below normal with gusty nw winds. Will maintain some
patchy frost over central KS late Wed night into early Thu morning
as lows fall into the mid 30s.

Pattern will remain very active as yet another piece of energy
moves out of the central Rockies and into the Plains by Thu
afternoon. This will increase rain chances from west to east Thu
afternoon into Thu evening with much of the area at least getting
some light rain. Best chances for rain on Fri will be generally
along and north of I-70...closer to the better upper dynamics.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

More robust shortwave is expected to dig over the southern high
Plains Fri night into Sat morning. 850-700mb moisture transport
will ramp up with an extremely moist airmass over the southern
Plains. PW values will be approaching 2 inches across eastern OK
into the Ozark region where heavy rain and flooding will be the
main threat. Some of this may skirt far SE KS, but it appears the
bigger impacts will be east and south of our forecast area Fri
night through Sat night. Sunday, central and eastern KS will be
in the cold wrap around precip area of the departing system with
well below normal temps anticipated for Sun-Sun night. Should
finally see more seasonal temps by Mon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

A cold front was bisecting the state early this afternoon. Ahead
of the front, gusty south winds and VFR prevailed while MVFR cigs
and gusty north winds were observed in the wake of the front.
Showers and thunderstorms will become likely along the front after
22-23Z across Southeast KS while other more scattered post-frontal
shower activity develops across much of Central and South Central
KS. MVFR will become widespread tonight in the wake of the front
with gusty north winds between 20-25 mph.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    74  43  57  39 /  20  40  20  10
Hutchinson      69  41  56  37 /  20  40  20  10
Newton          72  42  55  37 /  20  40  20  10
ElDorado        75  43  55  38 /  30  50  30  10
Winfield-KWLD   79  45  55  39 /  30  50  30  10
Russell         59  36  56  35 /  20  40  10   0
Great Bend      62  37  56  36 /  20  50  10   0
Salina          66  40  55  36 /  20  40  20  10
McPherson       68  40  56  36 /  20  40  20  10
Coffeyville     79  51  56  39 /  50  80  60  30
Chanute         77  49  54  39 /  50  80  50  30
Iola            77  48  53  38 /  50  80  50  30
Parsons-KPPF    78  50  55  39 /  50  80  50  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...MWM


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