Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 010503
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1203 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW OVER MID-AMERICA WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A NARROW
ZONE OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTLE JET STREAK APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS MAY SUPPORT A NARROW STRIP OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY OVER MAINLY
SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL SHEAR OUT/WEAKEN AND MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING SOMEWHAT HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY. MODEST FORCING IN CONCERT WITH
NEGLIGIBLE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

TRANQUIL AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THIS UPCOMING
WEEK...AS MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGING APPROACHES AND EVENTUALLY
PROGRESSES OVER MID-AMERICA FROM THE WEST. THIS PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LOWER
HUMIDITY AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 70S. OPERATIONAL
MODELS AND ASSOCIATED GFS ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A HIGH
AMPLITUDE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH MATERIALIZING THROUGH THE WEEK.
THIS WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND NORTHWARD
TRANSPORT OF GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
CONSEQUENTLY...WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES LIKELY EMANATING FROM THIS
LONGWAVE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD RETURN
TO THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE
WEEKEND ACROSS THE REGION. AT LEAST A HANDFUL OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS IS LIKELY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS...BUT WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO REFINE DETAILS THIS FAR OUT.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT MAY 1 2016

CONCERNS CONT TO BE THE ESE SPREADING OF MVFR CIGS ACRS CNTRL KS
THAT MAY EVEN DROP INTO IFR CATEGORY AT KRSL ~12Z WHEN CIGS MAY
LWR TO ~800FT. THE LOWEST CIGS WOULD BE ENCOUNTERED AT KRSL &
PSBLY KSLN. A SE-MOVG COLD FRONT CROSSING KS WL INDUCE WLY WINDS
TO SHIFT TO THE NNW & INCR TO ~17KTS IN MANY AREAS SUN MRNG.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

IF THE AREA REMAINS PRECIPITATION-FREE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WICHITA
WILL TALLY ITS 6TH WETTEST APRIL ON RECORD (SINCE 1889) AT 6.23
INCHES...WHICH IS THE WETTEST SINCE 2009. WICHITA`S APRIL NORMAL
IS 2.59 INCHES. SALINA WILL TALLY ITS 8TH WETTEST APRIL (SINCE
1949) AT 4.37 INCHES...WHICH IS THE WETTEST SINCE 1999. SALINA`S
APRIL NORMAL IS 3.05 INCHES.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    42  61  45  65 /  10  20  40  20
HUTCHINSON      41  59  43  64 /  10  10  40  20
NEWTON          41  60  44  62 /  10  10  30  20
ELDORADO        42  62  44  63 /  10  10  40  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   42  64  45  65 /  10  20  40  20
RUSSELL         40  55  41  64 /  10  10  30  20
GREAT BEND      40  56  41  63 /  10  20  40  20
SALINA          42  57  44  66 /  10  10  30  20
MCPHERSON       40  58  43  64 /  10  10  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     45  64  47  65 /  10  10  40  20
CHANUTE         44  62  46  64 /  10  10  30  20
IOLA            44  62  46  64 /  10  10  30  20
PARSONS-KPPF    44  64  46  64 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...EPS
CLIMATE...ADK


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