000
FXUS63 KICT 200503
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1203 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS AROUND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUED SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES MONDAY
AFTERNOON-NIGHT.

LATEST SURFACE MAP INDICATES A COLD FRONT BISECTING KS FROM
NORTH-SOUTH...EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL NE.
THE COLD FRONT INTERSECTS A DRYLINE OVER NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL
OK...WHICH THEN TRAILS SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN OK. THE AIRMASS IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ALONG/AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...OWING
TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CONTINUED AFTERNOON HEATING AND
RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...A 70-90KT JET MAX
IS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND
MORNING SOUNDINGS...A STOUT CAP IS LIKELY CURRENTLY IN
PLACE...ACTING TO SUPPRESS SURFACE-BASED ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING.
HOWEVER...THIS CAP SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE BREACHED BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...AS ALL THESE FEATURES CONVERGE AMIDST A STRONGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS...ALLOWING FOR RAPID SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN 50-60KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR
TO THE BOUNDARIES...SUPERCELLS AND MULTICELL CLUSTERS APPEAR
LIKELY...CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES. THINKING THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL BE GENERALLY
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE CORRIDOR...AND ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING OVER SOUTHEAST KS AND NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OK...WHEN
BACKING SURFACE FLOW AND A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ENHANCES
STORM-RELATIVE HELICITIES. AN ISOLATED STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADO WILL
BE POSSIBLE. AS EVENING PROGRESSES...STORMS SHOULD TRANSITION TO
MORE OF A LINEAR MODE...WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.

THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MON AFTERNOON-NIGHT OVER
SOUTHEAST KS...AS THE FRONT STALLS IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KS...ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN INDIVIDUAL
LOCATIONS RECEIVE...COULD SEE MODEST/STEEP RISES ON FAR SOUTHEAST KS
RIVERS/STREAMS...ALONG WITH RELATIVELY MINOR LOW-LAND FLOODING...SO
A FLOOD WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE PONDERED BY LATER SHIFTS...ESPECIALLY
IF AMPLE RAINFALL OCCURS TONIGHT. WHILE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS
LOWER...AMPLE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL STILL PROMOTE LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. PER MODEL CONSENSUS...THE FRONT SHOULD FINALLY
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUES...ENDING STORM
CHANCES.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS BUILDS MID/UPPER RIDGING ACROSS
MID-AMERICA BY MID-WEEK...RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES.
ADDITIONALLY...COULD BE LOOKING AT PERIODIC BOUTS OF LATE
AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS PERSISTENT LEE TROUGHING WILL PROMOTE
AFTERNOON HIGH PLAINS ACTIVITY...WHICH WOULD TEND TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE REGION DURING EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OVERALL...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS LOW DUE TO
MARGINAL MID/UPPER FLOW...BUT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WOULD PROMOTE A
THREAT OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

A LINGERING LINE OF STRONG TO SVR CONVECTION REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE KCNU TAF SITE.  SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A VCTS FOR THIS TAF SITE
FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REST OF THE TAF LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...AS SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE TAF LOCATIONS ON
MON...AS MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA.  THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR KCNU FOR
MON AFTERNOON...AS AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS ALONG A WEAK COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LOCATED OVER EXTREME SE KS. SO WILL GO
WITH A VCTS FOR THE KCNU TAF SITE FOR MON AFTERNOON.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    56  77  55  78 /  20  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      55  76  54  78 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          55  76  54  76 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        56  77  55  77 /  20  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   58  78  55  79 /  40  10  10  10
RUSSELL         51  73  52  77 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      52  74  53  78 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          54  75  52  76 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       54  76  53  77 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     65  79  57  78 /  80  50  10  10
CHANUTE         62  78  56  76 /  70  30  10  10
IOLA            62  78  56  76 /  60  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    63  78  57  77 /  80  40  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$