Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 310732
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
232 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Wed Aug 31 2016

Today will be the last day of afternoon/evening tropical airmass
thunderstorms, as daytime heating and cool mid-level temperatures
allow convective updrafts to develop freely once again. Instability
should be less today with cooler daytime highs but upper level
trough axis dropping southward will help aid in vertical motion
across the region. Strong subsidence in the wake of the upper level
wave will taper off precipitation chances from north to south
tonight. Drier/cooler air will spread across the region for Thursday
and Friday as surface high pressure builds over Kansas. Meanwhile a
few elevated showers/storms will be possible late Friday night
across central Kansas, as models continue to show 700mb warm moist
advection signal.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Wed Aug 31 2016

Still seeing a decent signal in the models for elevated
thunderstorms Saturday night for central Kansas as 700mb warm moist
advection is stronger than Friday night. However the bulk of the
activity should remain north of the area. Warmer temperatures and
increasing south winds are expected for Sunday into Monday along
with dry weather conditions. Thunderstorm chances look limited as
mid-level temperatures warm and surface front is well north of
central Kansas Sunday/Monday. Long range models still show a
decent upper trough axis shifting eastward from the Rockies into
the central US for Tuesday/Wednesday next week. This would push a
cold front southward and increase precipitation chances if this
signature remains intact by the models.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016

Aviation concern will remain storms through Wed evening.

Just like last few night, storm coverage has diminished the last
few hours with southeast KS having the only threat right now.
While we can`t rule out a rouge storm or two anywhere overnight,
at least for the next few hours, se KS will have the best chance.
Expecting a resurgence in development by early Wed afternoon,
especially with a cold front moving in from the northeast. This
may allow storms to be more widespread than last few days. With
very moist boundary layer, also can`t rule out some fog tonight,
especially for areas west of I-135.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    80  64  82  59 /  60  30  10   0
Hutchinson      79  62  81  58 /  60  20  10  10
Newton          79  62  81  57 /  60  20  10   0
ElDorado        80  63  81  58 /  60  20  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   82  65  83  60 /  50  40  10  10
Russell         77  58  81  57 /  50  20   0   0
Great Bend      78  59  81  58 /  60  30  10  10
Salina          77  59  82  57 /  60  10   0   0
McPherson       78  61  81  57 /  60  20  10   0
Coffeyville     83  67  83  59 /  50  30  10   0
Chanute         80  63  82  58 /  60  20   0   0
Iola            80  62  82  58 /  60  10   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    82  65  83  59 /  50  20  10   0

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...RBL



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