Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 292032
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
332 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PRESENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOME HAVE HAD HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOLER IN GENERAL...BUT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS SOUTH OF A MESOSCALE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL BE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WITH
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NEAR/ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
THE INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TOWARDS MORNING...LINGERING
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO THE MORNING HOURS. DO NOT EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO BE SEVERE ALTHOUGH A STRONG STORM AND HEAVY RAIN
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION STARTING
THURSDAY...THING TEMPERATURES WILL BE STUNTED AND HAVE KEPT HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY:
HIGHS STEADILY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND BACK INTO THE LOW 90S...BUT THINK PRECIPITATION WILL
STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN...BUT THE
MAIN BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STAY SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA WHERE IT WILL
REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT UNTIL IT WASHES OUT
FRIDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE CENTRAL CONUS SITS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH A
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. TEMPERATURES STAY
WARM...NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST...IN THE MID 90S.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DO NOT LOOK OVERLY GREAT. THERE MAY BE
A CHANCE TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST...BUT WITH MODEL
DISCREPANCIES...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON TIMING AND CHANCES AT
THIS TIME.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AT MIDDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL
MISSOURI...SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS...TO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG A BIT FARTHER SOUTH BEFORE
STALLING TONIGHT. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING NEAR THE
FRONT. ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT...BEFORE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN KANSAS THURSDAY MORNING.

JMC


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  85  69  90 /  20  20  10  20
HUTCHINSON      67  84  68  90 /  20  20  10  20
NEWTON          67  84  68  90 /  20  20  10  20
ELDORADO        68  84  68  89 /  20  20  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  86  70  90 /  20  20  10  20
RUSSELL         65  88  68  92 /  20  20  10  20
GREAT BEND      66  86  68  90 /  30  30  10  20
SALINA          67  87  67  92 /  20  20  10  20
MCPHERSON       67  84  67  91 /  20  20  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     71  87  70  90 /  20  20  10  10
CHANUTE         69  86  68  90 /  20  10  10  10
IOLA            68  85  68  90 /  20  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    70  87  69  90 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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