Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KICT 050542
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1142 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

THIS AFTERNOON...WEST WINDS FROM 10 TO 20 MPH ARE COMBINING WITH
SUN-DRENCHED SKIES TO SEND TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 40S IN MOST
AREAS. NOT SURPRISINGLY TEMPERATURES IN BARTON & RUSSELL COUNTIES
ARE STRUGGLING MIGHTILY...AS THE WEST WINDS ARE COMING IN OFF THE
MASSIVE SNOW FIELD...ESPECIALLY IN RUSSELL COUNTY WHERE THE 1 PM
TEMPERATURES HAD ONLY REACHED THE UPPER 20S. BARTON COUNTY HAS
REACHED THE MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

TONIGHT-FRI NIGHT:
THIS AFTERNOON...THE STRONG UPPER-DECK LONGWAVE THAT SURGED SE FROM
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ACROSS KS...OK AND TX CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
AS IT HAS NOW BEGUN TO SURGE DUE E TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AS
THIS VERY INTENSE LONGWAVE SURGES E ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TONIGHT
THE NEXT IN AN ASSEMBLY LINE OF UPPER-DECK WAVES THAT IS CROSSING
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT VENTURES
SE. THIS INTENSE SHORTWAVE SHOULD REACH THE NM/TX PANHANDLE BORDER
EARLY FRI MORNING WHERE/WHEN IT`LL STRENGTHEN EVEN FURTHER ON FRI.
FRI NIGHT...THIS WAVE WILL BEGIN TO MERGE WITH AN EXTREMELY INTENSE
UPPER CYCLONE THAT`LL MOVE SE ALONG THE SWRN SHORES OF HUDSON BAY.
THE INTENSE UPPER-DECK WAVE WILL CROSS TX LATE FRI NIGHT...DRAGGING
A COLD FRONT SE ACROSS KS. THE MOISTURE MIGRATING N/NE TOWARD THEN
ACROSS SE KS IS MEAGER BUT WITH IMPRESSIVE LIFT...THERE REMAINS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW MIXTURE FOR SOUTHEAST KS
FRI NIGHT.

THIS WEEKEND:
NICE WEATHER AWAITS THE NEIGHBORHOOD FOR AS THE INTENSE UPPER-DECK
WAVE SURGES E ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON SAT RIDGING WILL PUNCH
N/NE ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH THE NEXT INTENSE SHORTWAVE SPRINTING
SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SAT & SAT NIGHT INDUCING SFC TROFFING
OVER THE WRN PLAINS...EXCELLENT DOWNSLOPE WOULD RESULT TO PRODUCE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

AS THE CONTINUALLY-STRENGTHENING UPPER WAVE CROSSES THE MS VALLEY
SUNDAY NIGHT (WHERE & WHEN IT`LL UNDERGO RAPID CYCLOGENESIS) ALL OF
THE CENTRAL THIRD OF CONUS WILL BE UNDER A VERY STRONG N/NW REGIME
THRU TUE NIGHT. AS THE CYCLONE MOVES E ACROSS THE OH VALLEY MON &
TUE...ARCTIC AIR WILL BE INJECTED FROM THE SASKATCHEWAN/ONTARIO
BORDER THROUGH THE UPPER & MID MS VALLEY. THE RESULT IS AN E-W
ORIENTED TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES SITUATED OVER EASTERN KS WHERE BETTER ALIGNED WITH THE
SHARP INVERTED RIDGE KNIFING IN FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING. SOME HINTS THAT
030-040 CLDS MAY TRY TO FORM IN WAKE OF FRONT THAT WILL TRAVERSE
THE AREA DURING ABOUT THE LAST 6 HOURS OF FORECAST. THESE ARE IN
THE WAKE OF THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    25  49  27  51 /   0  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      21  47  24  50 /   0  10  10   0
NEWTON          23  47  25  49 /   0  10  10   0
ELDORADO        25  48  27  49 /   0  10  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   26  50  27  51 /   0  10  10   0
RUSSELL         17  38  16  41 /   0  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      19  41  16  46 /   0  10   0   0
SALINA          20  44  24  47 /   0  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       20  45  24  50 /   0  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     25  51  28  50 /   0   0  20   0
CHANUTE         23  49  28  50 /   0   0  20   0
IOLA            24  48  28  49 /   0   0  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    24  50  28  50 /   0   0  20   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.