Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 031121
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
621 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND FOCUS AROUND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY...AND A WARMING TREND
LATE WEEK/WEEKEND.

TODAY:

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN THE LOW-MID
90S...ALTHOUGH HEAT INDICES WILL BE TEMPERED IN THE MID-UPPER 90S
DUE TO DEWPOINTS REMAINING A BIT LOWER IN THE 60S. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST
NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL
ZONE...AND JUST WEST/SOUTHWEST CLOSER TO THE LEE TROUGH AND
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.

TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY:

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY MORE TOWARD DAWN
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL KS...AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DESPITE MODEST/STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...LIMITED INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE SEVERE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATERS WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. FOR TUESDAY...PERSISTENT
850- 700MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO AT TIMES NUMEROUS OFF-AND-ON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW STRONG/SEVERE LEVELS...ALTHOUGH INCREASING
INSTABILITY MAY PROMOTE STRONG/SEVERE CHANCES BY LATE AFTERNOON
OVER CENTRAL KS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE THOUGH. FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF I-135...AS 850-700MB
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION RAMPS UP. IN ADDITION TO THE CONTINUED HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT...INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND A STRONG
LOW- LEVEL JET IN CONCERT WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT
A HANDFUL OF STRONG-SEVERE STORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEAST
KS WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH LATEST ECMWF LINGERS ACTIVITY A
BIT LONGER WEDNESDAY.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

IN GENERAL...LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES (ALBEIT NOT ZERO) AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE TREND LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...AS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
OVER MID-AMERICA. THE EXCEPTIONS PRECIPITATION-WISE MAY BE
THURSDAY NIGHT-EARLY FRIDAY...AS SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOPS THE
RIDGE AND APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...SUSPECT BRUNT
OF THESE CHANCES WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN/NORTHEAST KS ALONG
NORTHEAST EDGE OF WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURE-
WISE...SIDED CLOSER TO THE SOMEWHAT COOLER ECMWF/GEM MODELS FOR
NOW. THE WARMER GFS APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER...BUT IF IT VERIFIES
IT WOULD SUPPORT HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE 100S LATE WEEK-WEEKEND.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE
ROCKIES. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL PREVAIL FROM NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...THOUGH EXPECTED TO
REMAIN JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. A
SURFACE FRONT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN KANSAS WILL MEANDER ALONG OR
JUST NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR DURING THE PERIOD.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    95  72  86  69 /  10  30  60  60
HUTCHINSON      95  71  85  67 /  10  30  60  50
NEWTON          94  71  83  67 /  10  20  60  60
ELDORADO        94  71  85  68 /  10  20  60  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   95  73  86  70 /  10  30  60  50
RUSSELL         95  70  85  66 /  10  20  50  40
GREAT BEND      94  69  85  66 /  10  40  50  40
SALINA          96  71  86  68 /  10  20  50  60
MCPHERSON       95  71  85  67 /  10  30  50  60
COFFEYVILLE     94  73  87  71 /  10  10  60  60
CHANUTE         94  72  86  69 /  10  10  50  60
IOLA            94  72  86  68 /  10  10  50  60
PARSONS-KPPF    95  73  86  70 /  10  10  60  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


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