Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 271153
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
653 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Forecast Headline: Severe Thunderstorms With A Trifecta Of
Threats Likely Late This Afternoon & This Evening. (Especially
Across Southeast KS Where Risk Has Been Raised From "Enhanced" To
"Moderate".)

This Morning:
Severe thunderstorms capable of both 1-2 inch diameter hail and
50-60 mph winds continue to surge east 40-45 mph from Northwest
into Central KS. The leading edge has entered Russell & Barton
Counties with the strongest cell approaching Barton County. Per IR
imagery the thunderstorm tops have "kept their cool" with temps
around -60C. With thunderstorms moving into an increasing moist
environment the southern edge of the convection may spread slowly
SE perhaps as far south as Northern Reno & Harvey Counties. The
outflow boundary that the convection is unleashing toward South-
Central KS should stabilize the airmass. SPC 3-hourly MLCAPES
depict such stabilization already in progress with fairly
expansive area of MLCAPES decreasing by 200 J/KG. As such these
thunderstorms should weaken as they venture further into Central
KS.

This Afternoon & Tonight:
No doubt the greatest concern is severe thunderstorm potential.
Short-range models have been consistent in lifting a warm front N
as a broad, positively-tilted upper-deck trough extending from
Central Canada to CA/NV moves east toward, then across the Great
Plains today & tonight. As the trough approaches the warm front
would continue to lift N while cold front surges E/SE toward, then
across, South-Central KS this afternoon. The airmass ahead of the
cold front will be EXTREMELY unstable with SBCAPES soaring into
the 5,000-6,000 J/KG range across the southeast fourth of KS. The
approaching front would no doubt markedly increase shear which
would support supercells with a trifecta of severe threats, among
them very large hail, perhaps tennis ball-sized, and tornadoes. In
fact, the Significant Tornado Parameter is projected to reach 2-3
across Southeast KS with the greater indices situated across far
Southeast KS late this afternoon. With the SE-surging cold front
exiting Southeast KS later this evening, the severe threat would
quickly diminish.

Sunday-Monday Night:
All will be quiet as lower-deck high pressure spreads SE into the
Great Plains.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

With several, but fairly weak, mid-level shortwaves scooting SE
across the KS Neighborhood thunderstorms remain in the forecast
for most periods.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 650 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Early morning complex of storms moved across Central KS, with some
lingering SHRA/TSRA still near the KGBD/KRSL and KSLN. So will keep
some morning VCTS in for this chance.  Still lots of uncertainty on
how later today will play out as an outflow boundary from the
overnight complex may linger across the forecast area or push back
north across the area as a warm front.  Current thinking is a very
unstable airmass will be in place for the afternoon hours, with a
chance of additional strong/severe SHRA/TSRA developing for the
afternoon hours along this boundary. Think the best chance for
storms will be along and east of I-135, so will include afternoon
VCTS for most TAF locations except KRSL and KGBD.

As the afternoon convection pushes into SE KS, strong forcing
associated with the cold front will push southeast, with a wind
shift to the NW. As the front pushes south, could see some MVFR cigs
develop in its wake for KHUT and KRSL.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    86  57  80  56 /  20  10   0   0
Hutchinson      82  55  79  54 /  30  10   0   0
Newton          83  55  78  56 /  30  20   0   0
ElDorado        85  56  78  56 /  20  20   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   90  58  80  56 /  20  20   0   0
Russell         74  52  78  53 /  60  10   0   0
Great Bend      77  53  78  53 /  40  10   0   0
Salina          80  54  79  55 /  60  10   0   0
McPherson       82  54  78  54 /  40  10   0   0
Coffeyville     87  61  79  56 /  40  50  10   0
Chanute         86  60  79  56 /  40  50  10   0
Iola            85  59  79  55 /  40  50  10   0
Parsons-KPPF    87  60  79  55 /  40  50  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...Ketcham


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