Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 310936
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
336 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

VERY LIGHT PRECIP/MAINLY RAIN HAS OCCURRED SINCE LAST EVENING
OVER CENTRAL KANSAS AND MORE RECENTLY A BIT FURTHER NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS. THE SPIRIT OF THE GOING FORECAST SEEMS
TO BE ON TRACK WITH MORE PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN A
DEEPER LAYER AND BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX TODAY RESULTING
IN MORE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO SPREAD
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE MARGINALLY
SUPPORT OF A PERIOD OF SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP EARLY THIS MORNING
OVER CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH RAIN FOR ALL AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT SOUTH LATER
TONIGHT WITH THE ASSOCIATED NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF...A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEFORE THE BETTER
MOISTURE AND LIFT IS SHUNTED EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. IT
STILL APPEARS THAT RESIDENCE TIME AND RATES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO
ONLY SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF GENERALLY AN INCH OR
LESS...MAINLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF GREATER WICHITA. BRISK AND
OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR WILL PREVAIL
ON SUNDAY WITH STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY.
CLEARING AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURE EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

MAIN CHANGE TO THE OUTER PERIODS WAS TO TRIM MAX TEMPERATURES
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR WEDGES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
FRONTAL TIMING IS STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...THOUGH BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS SUPPORT FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY IN THE DAY AND
SOME ADDITIONAL TWEAKS DOWN MAY BE NEEDED WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.
OTHERWISE A DECENT WARM-UP IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ON
TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE MID-WEEK FRONT
ARE NOT HIGH...THOUGH FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
A WINTRY MIX TO SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE MAIN CONCERNS CONTINUES TO BE THE PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY CONCERNS. PRECIPITATION BEGAN AT ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT KCNU WITH KRSL/KSLN HAVING THE MOST PERSISTENT
PRECIPITATION. STILL EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD EASTWARD AND
BE MORE CONSISTENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY. SOME SNOW HAS
ALREADY MIXED IN AT KRSL... AND COULD CONTINUE AT KRSL/KSLN BUT NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED OR WILL BE LONG LIVED IF THEY DO
ACCUMULATE. CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE VFR AND SLOWLY
DECREASE TO MVFR DURING THE DAY. WITH HEAVIER PRECIP THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF MVFR...BUT HAVE REMAINED OVERALL OPTIMISTIC THROUGH THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST. MVFR CEILINGS ARE PRESENT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST
IMPACTING KRSL AND POSSIBLY KHUT/KSLN BEFORE 06Z ON THE 1ST. THIS
WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR AND THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.
WILL FOCUS ON THIS IN LATER FORECASTS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    42  31  33  13 / 100 100  20   0
HUTCHINSON      41  28  31   9 / 100 100  20   0
NEWTON          41  29  31  10 / 100 100  20   0
ELDORADO        43  31  33  11 / 100 100  30   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   44  34  36  12 / 100 100  30   0
RUSSELL         41  24  27   9 / 100  90  10   0
GREAT BEND      42  25  29  10 / 100  90  10   0
SALINA          41  26  29   9 / 100 100  20   0
MCPHERSON       41  27  30   9 / 100 100  20   0
COFFEYVILLE     46  36  41  14 / 100 100  60   0
CHANUTE         44  35  37  11 / 100 100  60  10
IOLA            43  34  37  11 / 100 100  60  10
PARSONS-KPPF    45  36  40  12 / 100 100  60  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$



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