Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 251107
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
507 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

WARM ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY STRONG
SOUTH WINDS TODAY...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER EASTERN
COLORADO THUS TIGHTENING UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONSIDERABLY OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS. AS A RESULT...WE WILL HOIST A WIND
ADVISORY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

MEANWHILE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN STATES
WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES...AND EJECT OUT
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT INTO KANSAS ON FRIDAY WITH COLDER AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE
STATE. MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 285-290K LAYER LOOKS TO
SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS...AND WITH EXPECTED DRY MID-LEVELS THIS
COULD GIVE WAY TO DRIZZLE MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE KANSAS
TURNPIKE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL KANSAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD THEN
SPREAD EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY AS
CLOUD ICE IS REMOVED ALOFT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT LITTLE TO NO
SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR DUE TO WEAKER VERTICAL MOTIONS/LIMITED
CLOUD ICE AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

THIS PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER BIG CHANGES ARE COMING
THEREAFTER AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC INTO ALASKA. A UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL THEN DIVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE ROCKIES AND DISLODGE A MASSIVE CHUNK OF ARCTIC
AIR...WHICH WILL THEN SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
BEGIN TO AFFECT KANSAS ON MONDAY. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL BECOME FULLY
ENTRENCHED ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. STANDARDIZED 850MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES FOR
THIS AIRMASS BY THE GEFS/ECMWF MODELS ARE CURRENTLY PROJECTED IN THE
1.5 TO 2.0 RANGE...WHICH MEANS IT WILL BE A VERY COLD AIRMASS BUT
NOT RECORD SETTING COLD. IT TYPICALLY TAKES STANDARDIZED 850MB
TEMPERATURE ANOMALY VALUES OF 3.0 OR LESS COMBINED WITH FRESH
SNOW COVER TO DROP OUR TEMPERATURES INTO POSSIBLE RECORD SETTING
TERRITORY. SNOW CHANCES ARE NOT LOOKING ALL THAT GOOD WITH THIS
EVENT SO AIRMASS SHOULD BEGIN TO MODIFY SLOWLY WITH MINIMAL TO NO
EXPECTED SNOW COVER.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 501 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

LEE CYCLONE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL RESULT IN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND STRONG MIXING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS FROM MID MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH PEAK
GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
THIS FRONT SHOULD REACH RSL AROUND 05-06Z AND POSSIBLY SLN AND HUT BY
THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD...SWITCHING WINDS AROUND TO THE
NORTH. EXPECT ABUNDANT HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. THE NAM-WRF AND GFS WERE AT ODDS ON DEGREE OF LOW CLOUD
COVER BEHIND COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT...SO HAVE ONLY INTRODUCED
SCT015 DECK AT RSL FOR NOW.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    54  34  44  25 /   0   0  10  40
HUTCHINSON      53  31  37  21 /   0   0  20  40
NEWTON          53  32  40  24 /   0   0  10  40
ELDORADO        54  35  47  26 /   0   0  20  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   56  36  49  27 /   0   0  20  40
RUSSELL         52  25  30  17 /   0  10  30  40
GREAT BEND      53  27  30  18 /   0  10  30  40
SALINA          52  29  35  20 /   0  10  20  40
MCPHERSON       53  30  35  21 /   0  10  20  40
COFFEYVILLE     56  41  53  31 /   0  10  20  40
CHANUTE         54  39  50  29 /   0  10  20  40
IOLA            53  39  49  28 /   0  10  20  40
PARSONS-KPPF    55  40  52  31 /   0  10  20  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ052-053-068>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$



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