Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 141744
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1144 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 330 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

Today & Tonight:
During the night, a strengthening upper-deck shortwave has been
dropping due south from the Northern Rockies toward the Desert
Southwest. As the wave continues its southerly trek, (It should
extend from the Upper Mississippi Valley to Baja CA this evening.)
the Northern & Central Plains will once again be beneath a strong
almost due north regime. Lift over the Great Plains is not overly
impressive but the lower-decks moisten considerably late this
afternoon & especially this evening. As such some light rain that
will develop over southern Nebraska late this morning should
spread south into Central KS this afternoon then across primarily
Eastern KS this evening. The progressive nature of the pattern
would limit duration of the light precipitation & therefore little
if any measurable rainfall would result. There may be a brief
period of light snow late this evening before all precipitation
vacates the area around mid-night as large & strong high pressure
spreading almost due south across the Rockies becomes dominant.

Fri-Sat:
The afore-mentioned surface high will get forced S/SE into TX on
Fri by a trough of low pressure gradually strengthening over the
Northwestern Plains. This would cause winds to back toward the
west on Fri & with sunny skies have raised Fri`s highs across the
western half of the CWA into the mid 50s. The deep westerly regime
that`ll reside over the Great Plains Fri Night will continue to
back toward the southwest on Sat as a mid-level trough becomes
more assertive. Coupled with increasing S-SW winds to 15 to 25 mph
would enable highs to reach near 60 in all areas Sat afternoon.
The warmer temperatures & increasing winds would produce a high
grassland fire danger across South-Central & Southeast KS Saturday
afternoon.

Sat Night:
The southwestern U.S. upper trough will eject a subtle shortwave
NE across the Southern Plains. Increasing warm, moist advection
would induce areas of light rain to develop across the Southern
Plains that would spread across primarily Southeast KS late Sat
Night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

Sunday & Sunday Night:
The afore-mentioned mid-level shortwave shears considerably as it
crosses the Mississippi Valley. This would cause a weak NE-SW
oriented surface trough cutting through Central KS to move very
little. As such, areas of light rain would be possible across
primarily Southern KS both periods.

Mon-Wed:
A predominantly westerly/zonal regime would result in more dry &
unseasonably weather for all areas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

Main aviation issues will be transient lower clouds and chances
for light precipitation. VFR is most likely but MVFR is possible,
especially at KSLN/KCNU, with slimmer chances at KICT/KHUT. Down
glide behind passage shortwave should result in rapid clearing.
Confidence and probability in rain chances are too low to include
at this time. -Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    49  27  52  31 /   0  10   0   0
Hutchinson      48  24  54  29 /  10  10   0   0
Newton          47  26  50  31 /  10  10   0   0
ElDorado        47  27  50  32 /   0  10   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   48  27  51  32 /   0  10   0   0
Russell         46  21  56  27 /  20  10   0   0
Great Bend      47  21  55  27 /  20  10   0   0
Salina          47  25  53  30 /  20  20   0   0
McPherson       47  23  53  29 /  10  20   0   0
Coffeyville     46  28  51  32 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         45  28  49  32 /   0  10   0   0
Iola            44  28  49  32 /   0  10   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    46  28  49  32 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...PJH



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