Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 250855
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
355 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Today & Tonight:
Of greatest interest is the strong-severe thunderstorm potential
for areas E of I-35/I-135 in South-Central & especially Southeast
KS early this evening. Around 3 AM CDT, a cold front curved from
Northwest IA, thru West-Central KS, to South-Central CO. The front
will get forced SE by a 2nd mid-level shortwave that`ll gradually
strengthen as it moves E across the OK & TX Panhandles. The cold
front should reach Central KS this afternoon then Southeast KS this
eve. In advance of the cold front, sly 15-25 mph winds will inject
markedly greater moisture that should reach Southeast KS early this
afternoon. With temperatures reaching around 80F, pronounced
destabilization would no doubt occur across Southeast KS where an
axis of MLCAPES from 1500-2500 J/KG await the front`s arrival. An
80-100kt 300MB jet max rounding the base of the deepening mid-upper
deck wave crossing the Rockies would produce impressive deep-layer
shear as evidenced by 6K bulk shear(s) that`ll hit 55-70kts across
Southeast KS by late this afternoon. As such, confidence continues
to increase that severe thunderstorms will visit Southeast KS late
this afternoon but especially this eve with the initial threat
being large hail perhaps as the size of pingpong balls with 60-70
mph winds thereafter as the SE-moving cold front crosses Southeast
KS around mid-night.

Wed-Thu Night:
With the ever deepening mid-upper trof moving E across the Southern
Plains on Wed the front should get forced SE of KICT Country toward
daybreak tomorrow, but tremendous post cold frontal wrap around
rains would continue to spread across primarily Southeast for most
of the day. The rain should vacate Southeast KS late Wed Night with
much cooler weather covering the region on Thu. Rain & perhaps a
few thunderstorms will quickly return to the region Thu Night as
the next mid-upper trof, this one with a slight negative tilt,
pushes E from the Wrn Plains.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

We`re in for a wet weekend as multiple mid-upper shortwaves move E
across the Plains. While the threat for severe thunderstorms is
low, the potential for prolonged moderate to heavy rains is not. As
such flooding may once again become a concern as the weekend
progresses.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Low-level wind shear will affect much of south-
central/southeastern Kansas overnight into early Tuesday morning,
as a 45-55 knot south-southwesterly low-level jet continues over
the top of decoupled/backed near ground level winds. Isolated
convection may develop on the nose of the low-level jet across
north-central/eastern Kansas, however, a slightly better signal
for isolated-widely separated showers/storms is indicated just
north and east of the central/southeast Kansas terminals. A cold
front will push southward through central Kansas Tuesday
afternoon, switching winds from southerly to northerly. In
addition, as the front intercepts a dryline and better low-level
moisture over south-central KS/Flint Hills, scattered strong-
severe storms are expected to develop. This could affect ICT and
is likely at the CNU terminal. Other showers and widespread MVFR
ceilings are likely behind the front Tuesday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    76  43  52  38 /  30  50  50  10
Hutchinson      74  42  52  36 /  40  50  40  10
Newton          73  40  50  36 /  40  50  40  10
ElDorado        77  44  51  37 /  40  50  50  20
Winfield-KWLD   80  46  52  38 /  30  50  50  20
Russell         64  37  54  34 /  40  50  20   0
Great Bend      67  38  54  35 /  40  50  20   0
Salina          70  41  52  35 /  40  50  40  10
McPherson       72  41  52  35 /  40  50  40  10
Coffeyville     80  52  55  39 /  50  80  60  30
Chanute         78  50  53  38 /  50  80  60  40
Iola            77  49  53  38 /  50  80  60  40
Parsons-KPPF    79  51  55  39 /  50  80  60  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...JMC



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