Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 241128
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
528 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS DAY A SURFACE LOW WILL
DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND TIGHTEN UP THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONSIDERABLY FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN STRONG SOUTH WINDS LIKELY APPROACHING OR SURPASSING WIND
ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE DAY. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO USHER
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION.

MEANWHILE...CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY
HEALTHY UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST. THIS UPPER WAVE
WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES FOR THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...AND CARVE OUT A WELL AMPLIFIED TROUGH AXIS COME FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...WITH A NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE RANGE FROM CENTRAL TO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WE ARE STILL SEEING DIFFERENCES IN THE
GFS/ECMWF MODELS WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM...BUT
THE ECMWF MODEL SEEMS MORE REASONABLE GIVEN THAT GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF MODEL. AS A RESULT WE WILL
INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A WINTER
MIX EARLY ON CHANGING TO ALL SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

THE CHANCES FOR SNOW ARE INCREASING A BIT FOR SATURDAY WITH SOME
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...AS ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO BE THE
MODEL OF CHOICE FOR GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH
THAT MUCH COLDER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL VISIT KANSAS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A WEATHER PATTERN
CONDUCIVE OF DISLODGING A MASSIVE CHUNK OF ARCTIC AIR. THE ARCTIC
AIR LOOKS TO INVADE KANSAS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...AND THE
ARCTIC OCCUPATION WILL ONLY GET FURTHER ENTRENCHED FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEAST KS UNTIL
LATE THIS MORNING...BEFORE PUSHING EAST OUT OF THE AREA. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE CNU TERMINAL WITH WET GROUND AND
MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS. LINGERING WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS EXTEND
BACK JUST WEST OF I-135 AND THIS BACK EDGE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST
DURING THE DAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TONIGHT WITH
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    41  26  53  33 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      41  26  53  31 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          38  25  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        41  26  54  35 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   42  26  55  36 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         41  24  51  26 /   0   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      41  25  52  27 /   0   0   0  10
SALINA          40  25  51  29 /   0   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       39  26  52  30 /   0   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     42  25  55  39 /  60   0   0   0
CHANUTE         39  25  53  39 /  60   0   0   0
IOLA            38  25  52  38 /  60   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    41  25  55  39 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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