Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 272045
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
345 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

WITH TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY IN THE MID-UPPER 90S & SOUTH WINDS
FROM 10-20 MPH INDUCING SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...HEAT
INDICES ACROSS MOST OF THE NEIGHBORHOOD HAVE PRIMARILY BEEN
100-103 WITH THE HIGHER INDICES "FAVORING" NO PARTICULAR AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

HEADLINE: HEAT ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTH-CENTRAL &
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS WELL AS MCPHERSON FROM 1PM-8PM ON TUESDAY.

THIS EVENING-TUE:
THE HIGHLIGHT ONCE AGAIN IS THAT HEAT INDICES WILL VENTURE INTO
ADVISORY COUNTRY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL & SOUTHEAST KS TUE
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER-DECK TROF THAT IS MOVING E TOWARD THE NORTHERN
& CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL EXPERIENCE RAPID CYCLOGENESIS AS IT LIFTS
NE ACROSS MT LATE TONIGHT & TUE. THIS WOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT SE
FROM THE WESTERN PLAINS TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT SCHEDULED TO REACH
CENTRAL KS TUE AFTERNOON. SE OF THE FRONT...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL
REACH THE LOWER 70S IN MOST AREAS & WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING 95
TO 100 IN MOST AREAS...HEAT INDICES WOULD REACH 105-110 ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTH-CENTRAL & TO A LESSER `DEGREE` SOUTHEAST KS. AS SUCH...A
HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS. AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES CENTRAL KS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
PLAINS WOULD VENTURE INTO CENTRAL KS TUE MORNING.

TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT:
WITH THE AFORE-MENTIONED CYCLONE CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
CROSSES THE SOUTHEAST MANITOBA/SOUTHWEST ONTARIO BORDER TUE NIGHT
THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH FURTHER SE ACROSS KS & WITH MORE THAN AMPLE
MOISTURE IN PLACE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD GREATLY INCREASE TUE NIGHT
WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES SHIFTING SE WITH THE FRONT. WITH THE
CYCLONE CONTINUING TO MOVE NE ACROSS ONTARIO...THE FRONT SHOULD
DECELERATE AS IT MOVES FURTHER INTO OK WHERE IT WOULD STALL IN AN
E-W MANNER WED NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING SE FROM NEBRASKA
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY END LATE WED NIGHT.

THU & THU NIGHT:
THE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE ON THU & WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
SLOWLY E TOWARD THE MID-MS VALLEY S WINDS WILL RETURN & TRANSPORT
RICH MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS WOULD RETURN
THU AFTERNOON & SLOWLY INCREASE THU NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN PLAINS. UPPER SUPPORT IS FEEBLE...SO THE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BEHAVE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

NEXT WEEKEND:
THE UPPER-DECK CYCLONE WILL OCCLUDE OVER HUDSON BAY & WITH STRONG
& MASSIVE UPPER-DECK HIGH PRESSURE RETROGRADING TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON FRI...A NW FLOW REGIME WOUOLD SET UP FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE MASSIVE UPPER HIGH
DOMINATING NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD BE NICE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OUT OVER NORTHWEST KS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHERE LESS CAPPING AND AN UPPER WAVE WILL
BE APPROACHING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO ENTER INTO CENTRAL KS TAFS. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN A
COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AND ESPECIALLY
TOMORROW EVENING. THIS FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH KRSL AROUND 17Z
WITH WINDS FLIPPING AROUND TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    78 101  75  88 /   0  10  20  30
HUTCHINSON      78 101  72  88 /  10  20  30  40
NEWTON          77 100  72  87 /   0  10  20  30
ELDORADO        78  98  74  88 /   0  10  10  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   78  99  77  90 /   0  10  10  20
RUSSELL         76  93  68  85 /  20  30  50  30
GREAT BEND      76  95  69  85 /  10  30  40  40
SALINA          79  99  69  86 /  10  30  40  30
MCPHERSON       78  99  70  87 /  10  20  30  40
COFFEYVILLE     77  96  76  91 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         77  96  75  89 /   0   0  10  20
IOLA            77  96  75  88 /   0   0  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    77  96  76  90 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ070>072-095-096-
100.

&&

$$



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