Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
095
FXUS63 KICT 221741
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1241 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

A shortwave trough over the Rockies will dampen and move across the
area today while another more intense shortwave trough will impact
the area later tonight. This will bring multiple opportunities for
showers and isolated storms today-tonight across much of the area.
With limited insolation, afternoon highs should remain below normal
once again ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s for most areas.
We may see a strong storm or two this evening along a southward
moving cold front, however the deeper moisture is expected remain
across the Southern Plains resulting in limited instability
precluding more organized strong or severe storms through tonight.

Tue-Wed...A mid/upper trough is progged to meander slowly south and
east across the Middle & Upper Mississippi Valley areas on Tuesday
while the cold mid lvl air pivots south into the Central Plains
states. Maintained mainly afternoon pops within a post-frontal
shallow instability scenario. Below normal temperatures will linger
into the day on Wed while drier more subsident air overspreads the
forecast area in the wake of the trough. Afternoon highs are
expected to rise into the mid and upper 60s for most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

A shortwave ridge will translate eastward across the area on
Thursday. The ECMWF is more progressive when compared to the GFS,
breaking the ridge down on Friday as a shortwave trough races
eastward across the Central and Northern Plains. This would
support some pops Thu night into early Fri, however better
chances for deep moist convection should arrive early in the
weekend as a mid/upper trough moves across the central Conus.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

A weak shortwave will continue to traverse eastward across Kansas
this afternoon into early this evening, while a strong upper
trough digs southward into the Central Plains. The lead wave will
continue to result in scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms
this afternoon, which could persist in the southeast into early
this evening. A cold front, in association with the stronger upper
trough, will push southward through the region tonight into early
Tuesday morning shifting winds to northerly. Given sufficient
clearing occurs ahead of the front late this pm/eve, a few small
clusters of strong storms could develop along the front in
southern Nebraska/northern Kansas, possible affecting terminals
near I-70 this evening, before diminishing late tonight. Cold air
advection behind the frontal passage may allow for areas of MVFR
ceilings late tonight into Tuesday morning. Scattered showers
could linger Tuesday in association with the main upper trough
sliding over the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    70  52  69  46 /  40  20  10  10
Hutchinson      67  51  68  45 /  60  20  20  10
Newton          69  51  66  45 /  50  20  20  10
ElDorado        72  52  67  45 /  50  20  20  10
Winfield-KWLD   73  53  69  46 /  50  10  10  10
Russell         69  48  66  42 /  40  50  20  10
Great Bend      68  48  66  43 /  60  30  20   0
Salina          68  51  67  45 /  70  50  20  10
McPherson       67  50  67  44 /  70  30  20  10
Coffeyville     75  54  68  47 /  30  40  40  10
Chanute         74  53  68  46 /  40  40  30  10
Iola            73  53  68  46 /  40  40  30  10
Parsons-KPPF    74  54  68  47 /  30  50  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...JMC



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.