Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 200343
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
943 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 943 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Given current and expected trends, expanded the winter weather
advisory to include much of central, south-central and east-
central Kansas. Overnight shift may need to consider expanding
another row of counties southeast, especially if the 00z NAM
verifies.

Deepening/strengthening isentropic ascent amidst weak/modest
elevated instability ahead of an approaching shortwave is
starting to take shape late this evening, with cellular/convective
elements increasing on the regional radar mosaic, with even some
lightning being detected. Thermodynamic profiles suggest
precipitation type with this activity is and will be a mix of
freezing rain and sleet, with patchy freezing drizzle in between.
Later tonight through Tuesday morning, another round of lift is
expected as a strengthening upper jet plants itself north of the
region, with increasing freezing rain coverage mainly along and
just southeast of the Turnpike corridor across the Flint Hills.
Light ice accumulations are likely, with very slick roads and
other surfaces developing overnight. Please be careful if
venturing out overnight.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 340 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

The cold front has plummeted through most of the state and
dropped temperatures significantly with the arrival of the cold
air. This has created a difficult hourly temperature forecast with
falling values throughout the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 340 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Forecast challenges and highlights:
1) Hourly temperatures for tonight into Tuesday
2) Precipitation chances and type
3) Winter Weather Advisory issued for a few counties

A cold front is draped from the Great Lakes to Oklahoma with the
main trough still over the Rockies. The cold front and respective
cold air have created a problematic forecast in terms of hourly
temperatures and precipitation. Models are horribly handling the
hourly temperatures keeping everything much too warm compared to
the observations. The NAMnest was selected to be the closest for
the forecast for tonight into the first part of Tuesday. These
temperatures have made it very difficult to determine the exact
precipitation types particularly with the depth and temperatures
of the warm nose aloft.

Model soundings show only low level forcing with minimal lift for
central and much of south central Kansas this evening. Most of
central Kansas actually only indicates this low level moisture
which is not surprising given the flow pattern and extent of the
northward moisture progression. Therefore drizzle and freezing
drizzle were inserted. A brief increase in temperatures depending
on its longevity could play a role in the type. Freezing rain is
anticipated this evening into the morning across Saline,
McPherson, Marion and Chase counties. Accumulations could be a
tenth to even two tenths of an inch. Therefore a Winter Weather
Advisory was hoisted. Please see the advisory for further details.
The southwestern extent of this type of precipitation is in
question, and freezing rain could impact a greater portion of the
area. It is possible that the advisory may need to be expanded. A
light glaze or the mentioned accumulations would create travel
difficulties especially during the morning commute. It would be a
good idea to leave early and take it slow.

Southeast Kansas is still expected to have showers and
thunderstorms which already began during the daytime hours today.
The warm air and moisture advection combined with the location of
the low level jet are anticipated to trigger storms this evening
into the first half of Tuesday. There could be small hail and
maybe a wind gust to 40-50mph which are the same threats that were
mentioned previously. Periods of heavy rainfall will be a bigger
factor for this area.

The trough is anticipated to finally push out on Tuesday;
however, this does not mean hourly temperatures were any easier
mainly over southeast Kansas where the high temperature for the
day will be in the morning thanks to the arrival of the cold air.
Its exact timing is questionable. Areas in eastern Oklahoma into
the Ozarks remain to have the highest potential precipitation
accumulations of three to over five inches in the next few days.
While south central and southeast Kansas are expected to see less,
totals could be a half of an inch to two inches thru Thursday
evening. The arrival of precipitation will certainly put a smile
on the faces of many.

Chances of precipitation and its respective type have been
adjusted from the previous forecast particularly on Tuesday
evening into early Wednesday. High pressure is expected to move in
for Wednesday. There are returning chances of mixed phase
precipitation in the forecast on Wednesday night into Thursday. It
is truly a mixed bag in the type for most of this time period. On
Thursday afternoon, warmer air will move in to transition the
type to all rain. There does appear to be wider coverage with this
wave moving through the Plains. This forecast was definitely a
challenge with models contradicting one another in terms of their
expectations for the precipitation. Changes are likely in the
coming days so stay tuned.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 340 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

This is certainly an active pattern. The next trough will move
through on Saturday. There is moisture associated with this system
as well bringing chances of precipitation for the day. A mix of
rain or snow is possible early Saturday, but rain is expected for
much of the rest of the day. Another trough is progged to move
across on Monday. Overall temperatures should be fairly nice for
this part of the forecast with highs mainly in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 601 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Current thinking is precipitation will gradually increase in
coverage from the southwest between 9-11pm and persist off-and-on
overnight into Tuesday morning across mainly the eastern half of
KS, as isentropic ascent and elevated instability increase ahead
of an approaching shortwave trough. In the warmer air across
southeast KS, precipitation type will be showers with embedded
thunderstorms. Further northwest in the colder air, patchy areas
of freezing drizzle, freezing rain and sleet are possible along
with embedded thunder. Additionally, widespread IFR to MVFR
conditions will persist overnight into Tuesday morning. Given the
busy weather, anticipate numerous TAF amendments will be needed
overnight, so stay tuned.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 340 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

There is not a concern for fire weather for this forecast with
precipitation anticipated for most days in the next week. Winds will
not be much of a concern after Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    29  35  17  34 /  60  40  10  20
Hutchinson      25  34  14  33 /  40  20   0  10
Newton          27  33  14  33 /  60  40   0  10
ElDorado        30  33  17  33 /  80  70  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   33  35  19  35 /  70  70  10  20
Russell         20  31   9  32 /  40   0   0   0
Great Bend      21  32  10  32 /  30   0   0  10
Salina          23  34  13  34 /  50  10   0  10
McPherson       25  33  13  33 /  60  20   0  10
Coffeyville     40  53  23  35 /  90  90  20  20
Chanute         35  35  21  35 /  90  90  20  10
Iola            34  34  20  34 /  90  90  20  10
Parsons-KPPF    38  41  23  35 /  90  90  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for KSZ049-
051>053-068>070-083.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADK
SYNOPSIS...VJP
SHORT TERM...VJP
LONG TERM...VJP
AVIATION...ADK
FIRE WEATHER...VJP



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