Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 210017
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
717 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SPINNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS...HELPING TO KEEP THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
COOLER AIR HAS SETTLED IN WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 50S
WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WITH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS UNDER GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KANSAS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AS LEE TROUGHING
DEVELOPS AND SURFACE MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN BACK TO THE NORTH.
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A COUPLE OF WAVES OF
PRECIPITATION MAY BE POSSIBLE...THE FIRST DURING THE EARLY PART
OF THE DAY FRIDAY AND THEN A SECONDARY PORTION AS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT DEVELOPS AGAIN OVERNIGHT SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS WHICH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
THE LOWER RESOLUTION GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A WIDE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE/QPF THROUGHOUT ALL PERIODS FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THINK THE MORE PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES ARE
MORE LIKELY...BUT HAVE KEPT THE LESSER RESOLUTION IN THE FORECAST
SINCE IT IS STILL DAY 2 AND 3. HOWEVER AS MORE RESOLUTION IS
ALLOWED IN NEARER PERIODS...AND HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
ALLOWS...THIS CAN BECOME MORE APPARENT AS THE PERIODS NEAR. COULD
SEE ANOTHER HALF AN INCH TO INCH AND A HALF OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THIS PERIOD FOR AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. LESSER AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE NEARER THE STATE LINE. HOWEVER...WATCH THIS
PERIOD AS THE FORECAST CHANGES THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...HIGHS IN THE 60S EXPECTED.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE EXTENDED REMAINS MESSY AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SITS UNDER
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT DISTURBANCES
LIFT OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH WILL BRING A COUPLE OF MORE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT MULTIPLE PERIODS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THE DISCREPANCIES IN THE TIMING OF THE WAVE
KEEP THE CHANCES SPREAD ACROSS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT
AS THE TIMING IS TUNED UP SOME IN LATER GUIDANCE IT SHOULD BECOME
MORE APPARENT WHICH OF THE DAYS WILL LIKELY SEE THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES DO TREND WARMER WITH THE CONSTANT
WARM AIR ADVECTION...BUT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION COULD STUNT
THAT TO SOME EXTENT...BUT THE PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO MAKE WARMER
CONDITIONS FEEL MORE HUMID. CONFIDENCE THERE WILL BE PRECIPITATION
IS RELATIVELY HIGH...CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS LOWER.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 712 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS MIXED OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...HOWEVER THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED WITH MVFR
CIGS REDEVELOPING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MUCH OF THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE MIXED CEILINGS OUT AFTER 07-09Z AND
TRENDED TAFS IN THIS DIRECTION. WITH SOME CLEARING...PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP BUT CONFIDENCE IN HOW WIDESPREAD THIS BECOMES REMAINS LOW.
IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    45  65  50  61 /  10  10  40  60
HUTCHINSON      44  65  46  62 /  10  10  40  60
NEWTON          43  64  47  60 /  10  10  30  50
ELDORADO        44  65  47  61 /  10   0  20  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   45  66  47  62 /  10  10  40  60
RUSSELL         41  64  47  61 /   0  10  50  60
GREAT BEND      42  64  47  61 /  10  10  50  60
SALINA          43  66  47  62 /  10  10  20  40
MCPHERSON       43  64  46  60 /  10  10  30  50
COFFEYVILLE     46  66  49  64 /  10  10  10  60
CHANUTE         45  65  48  63 /  10  10  10  40
IOLA            44  65  48  63 /  10  10  10  40
PARSONS-KPPF    46  66  49  64 /  10  10  10  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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