Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 012345
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
545 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 311 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

A weak mid level ridge is currently over the region providing fair
weather today and for tomorrow as well.  Winds will remain light or
out of the Northwest or West which will prevent any WAA from
entering the area.  If anything, mid levels indicate some weak CAA
for tonight and early tomorrow.  This will keep temperatures near or
just below normal tonight and for tomorrow as well.  Friday night
and into Saturday, things start to get interesting.  A low pressure
system will begin to rapidly develop Southwest of El Paso TX. The
supporting mid and upper level troughs are also in phase and nicely
stacked to allow for the development. Strong moisture transport is
expected to develop over much of the Southern Plains and will move
North over the region by Saturday. This will significantly
increase the cloud cover and allow WAA to take place. GFS/ECMWF are
in pretty good agreement but the ECMWF appears to have a better
handle on the moisture transport. As such, trimmed pops some
Saturday morning as it appears the best precipitation chances will
be Saturday night. The track of this low pressure system will
create a decent temperature gradient across the CWA. Unfortunately,
the rain/snow line will cross through the CWA Saturday and Sunday.
Low to mid level temperatures appear to be warm enough to keep rain
for the most part from US-54 South with flurries more likely from
US-56 North. A rain/snow mix is possible between the two. No
accumulations are expected at this time. Confidence is high on
temperatures through Sunday but have a somewhat lower confidence
on precipitation. This system will continue to intensify rapidly
and a mid level trough will kick the moisture field out to the
East. This trough will effectively shut down the moisture
transport. The main system will slowly move out into Southern
Texas bringing the winds out of North for the CWA keeping
temperatures near normal.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 311 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Monday, the strong low pressure system in Texas will cut off the
moisture transport to the CWA and hog it for itself. This will
temper the precipitation chances for the next several days. It is at
this point the GFS/ECMWF drastically diverge which is a significant
change from yesterday. The GFS is much faster, drier and warmer
while the ECMWF is much slower, wetter and much colder. It should be
noted, the GFS run is one of the fastest and warmest members of the
GEFS plumes this time around. Considering this, trended toward the
ECMWF this time around.  ECMWF brings the low pressure system slowly
to the Northeast through Texas and Oklahoma Tuesday and Wednesday.
This orientation, with a strong high (1035mb) coming into Montana
behind the main trough, will keep the moisture transport to a
minimum for Tuesday and Wednesday. There does appear to be enough
moisture to allow for some light rain Tuesday which is expected to
change over to snow Wednesday from the deformation zone. Due to the
significant divergence of the GFS/ECMWF, have low confidence in the
precipitation forecast at this time. The temperature forecast,
confidence remains high that a major cooldown is in store for the
region and expect temperatures to be as much at 15 degrees below
normal Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Weak high pressure covering the Nrn & Cntrl Plains wl keep all
areas quiet thru 03/00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    26  52  35  44 /   0   0  30  30
Hutchinson      24  49  32  43 /   0   0  20  30
Newton          25  50  32  42 /   0   0  20  30
ElDorado        27  51  34  44 /   0   0  20  30
Winfield-KWLD   29  53  37  46 /   0   0  30  40
Russell         22  48  28  43 /   0   0  10  20
Great Bend      22  48  29  42 /   0   0  30  30
Salina          23  48  29  44 /   0   0  10  20
McPherson       24  49  31  43 /   0   0  10  30
Coffeyville     31  54  37  48 /   0   0  30  40
Chanute         29  52  35  46 /   0   0  10  30
Iola            29  51  34  45 /   0   0  10  30
Parsons-KPPF    30  53  37  47 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...EPS



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