Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KICT 231643
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1143 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 11 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

The primary reason for the update was to remove the "This Morning"
descriptor from the HWO with the corresponding adjustments to the
PoP and weather grids. All products have been updated.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Warm advection and moisture advection will continue across Srn Ks
this morning, already seeing surface dewpoints in the upper 60s
across Srn KS. Nose of this advection has led to some scattered
showers to the NW of the forecast area, but think this area of
showers will stay to the NW of the area. Expect another area of
moisture transport move into Srn KS. Already seeing some low clouds
and stratus increasing across southern KS in response to the
advection. As this moisture transport increases, think scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms will develop for areas east of the
KS Turnpike later this morning and possibly through midday. As the
afternoon moves on, think most of the showers/storms will lift NE
into NE KS, but the warm advection may lead to a chance of scattered
showers across most of south central and Southeast KS even into the
late afternoon hours. So will leave some pops in most locations for
now.

Tonight-Thu: The unsettled pattern looks to continue for Tonight
thru Wed night, as a cold frontal boundary makes slow progress into
Central KS and eventually into South Central KS by Wed night, as it
becomes parallel to the SW flow. Slow movement of the frontal
boundary may lead to several periods of showers and thunderstorms
for this time frame, with the better chances for widespread deep
moist convection being Wed afternoon and Wed night as a more
significant shortwave moves through the SW flow.

Could see a few strong storms tonight, but think the better chance
for strong to severe storms will be Wed afternoon/night as bulk
shear increases to 40kts and a moist unstable airmass is expected to
be in place just ahead of the front. Precipitable water values of
150-175 percent of normal may also lead to heavy rainfall and
localized flooding as the storms train along the front given the
expected slow SE movement of the front.  Think the heavy rainfall
will be the main concern, but some large hail and damaging outflow
winds may occur with with the multicell/bowing segments and cell
mergers.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Some uncertainty on how far south the front will get
before becoming stationary over washing out on Thu.  This will lead
to shower and thunderstorm chances continuing as moisture laden
monsoonal flow continues to overrun the boundary into Southern KS
for Thu and Thu night. Will go with highest pops for Southern KS
with lessor pops for Central KS.

Both the ECMWF and GFS show the synoptic frontal boundary washing
out across OK for Fri, which will lead to warm advection and
moisture advection again surging north across the region.  With SW
flow remaining, the chance of showers and thunderstorms will
continue for most locations into the weekend.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 11 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

SCT-BKN decks from around 1500-2500ft are lkly in most areas thru
mid-aftn. The exceptions would be KGBD & KRSL. All areas should
achieve VFR status ~21Z. SCT TSRA are psbl acrs the neighborhood
thru tmrw aftn with the greatest chances encountered acrs Cntrl KS
where closest to a SLOW se-movg cdfnt. With the front driving thru
a school zone, the ultra-high octane Gulf moisture will have extra
time to spread acrs the region, so +TSRA are psbl, producing ocnl
IFR vsbys.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    89  75  90  66 /  20  20  30  50
Hutchinson      91  74  89  63 /  30  30  40  60
Newton          87  73  88  64 /  20  20  40  60
ElDorado        87  74  89  66 /  30  20  30  60
Winfield-KWLD   88  76  92  67 /  30  20  30  50
Russell         93  69  84  59 /  20  20  40  40
Great Bend      94  71  86  60 /  20  20  40  40
Salina          91  73  89  63 /  30  30  40  50
McPherson       91  74  88  62 /  30  30  40  60
Coffeyville     87  75  94  69 /  40  20  20  40
Chanute         86  74  91  68 /  40  20  30  50
Iola            85  74  90  68 /  40  20  30  50
Parsons-KPPF    84  75  93  68 /  40  20  20  40

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...EPS
SHORT TERM...BDK
LONG TERM...BDK
AVIATION...EPS


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.