Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 111140
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
540 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

NW FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SW ACROSS NW
MO INTO NE KS AT THIS TIME. QUESTION TODAY IS HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
FRONT WILL MAKE IT. LATEST HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGESTS THAT
THIS FRONT WILL STALL OR WASH OUT OVER ERN KS. WITH THE FRONT
STALLING....EXPECT A TEMP GRADIENT FROM SW TO NE....EVEN THOUGH
THE NE SURFACE FLOW WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
AS WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL PREVAIL TODAY.

EXPECT TEMPS ON FRI TO BE SIMILAR FRI...MUCH LIKE TODAY...AS AS
SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS BRIEFLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
KEEP THE SW TO NE TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST FOR FRI.
MODELS ARE NOW COMING IN A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE NEXT SHOT OF
COLD AIR FOR FRI AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS THOUGHTS WERE THAT THIS COLD
AIR WOULD NOT MAKE INTO KS UNTIL LATE FRI NIGHT...BUT CURRENT
MODEL RUNS SUGGESTS THAT A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND A LEAD COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FOR FRI AFTERNOON. SO NOT EXPECTING
MAX TEMPS AS WARM AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...BUT CERTAINLY SEASONAL
FOR MID FEB.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

THE COLDER AIR FROM THIS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
OOZE INTO THE AREA FOR SAT. THIS SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO
MAX TEMPS ALMOST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL....IN THE UPPER 30S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. THIS SHALLOW COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR LATE
SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN...AS A SHORTWAVE IN THE PACIFIC NW WILL
DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR
LATE SAT NIGHT OR EARLY SUN MORNING. NOT ALOT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS...BUT MID LEVEL SATURATION
DOES INCREASE ENOUGH FOR A POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP CHANCE FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE FOR EARLY SUN MORNING. SOME QUESTION ON
WHETHER SATURATION WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH IN THE LOW LAYERS FOR THIS
PRECIP CHANCE TO MATERIALIZE...SO KEPT THE POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE
RANGE. THE SHALLOW SUB FREEZING AIR...MAY MAKE THIS PRECIP CHANCE
PROBLEMATIC...AS A MID LEVEL WARM NOSE INCREASES OVER THE TOP OF
THE COLD LOW LEVELS... TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN. NOT TOO WORRIED ABOUT LIGHT SNOW...AS SATURATION
WILL NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION IN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE. AS TEMPS WARM DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF SUN...THINK
MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. GIVEN THE
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A LIGHT
WINTER PRECIP EVENT.

A PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS FOR LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO EARLY MON. THIS MAY LEAD TO A LIGHT SNOW CHANCE FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS AND SOUTHEAST KS.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION AS
SURFACE FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST-SW.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

IFR TO LOW MVFR CIGS WILL FILTER SOUTH ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS MORNING. TERMINALS AFFECTED WILL PRIMARILY BE
SLN...RSL AND GBD...POSSIBLY HUT...WITH ICT AND CNU LIKELY THE
VERY SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THESE LOW CIGS. CONSEQUENTLY...TAF
CONFIDENCE IS LOWEST FOR ICT-CNU...AND ONLY WENT WITH SCT DECKS AT
THIS POINT. CIGS WILL BURN OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

ADK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE TODAY THRU FRI AS A
CANADIAN AIRMASS OOZES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE MUCH
COOLER AIR WILL LOWER THE GRASSLAND FIRE CONSIDERABLY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    48  31  48  21 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      49  30  46  19 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          47  30  44  18 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        47  30  46  20 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   50  31  50  21 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         48  29  42  19 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      52  30  45  20 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          46  30  44  18 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       47  30  44  19 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     47  28  49  20 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         44  28  45  17 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            42  27  43  15 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    46  28  47  18 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$


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