Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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822
FXUS63 KICT 080530
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1130 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 235 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

700-650 mb mid-level frontal zone and associated narrow bands of
light snow/flurries should exit southward, out of far
southern Kansas early this evening. Most areas should receive a
little more than a dusting, due to the transient/narrow nature of
these bands, along with the antecedent dry low level air to
overcome. Clearing skies with subsidence will occur tonight from
north to south across the forecast area behind this departing
feature. A strong polar high pressure system will build southward
into the Central Plains tonight into Thursday, and will linger
into Friday with below normal temperatures. With lows tonight in the
single digits and teens and north winds hanging up around 10-15
mph, wind chills of zero to 8 below are slated for central and
much of south-central Kansas late tonight into mid morning
Thursday. Much of the forecast area should see low temperatures in
the single digits Thursday night with the surface ridge over the
region with light/variable winds and mostly clear skies. Lee
troughing and breezy southerly winds will lead to temperatures
recovering back to seasonal climatology Saturday (Highs Low-mid
40s).

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 235 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

The medium range models indicate a very strong negative height
anomaly at 500 mb rotating across south central Canada into
southeastern Canada during this period, with a progressive westerly
flow pattern across much of the CONUS. Considerable uncertainty
exists with regard to the timing/amplification of several, embedded
shortwaves within this progressive mid-upper level flow pattern. One
such shortwave is progged to move eastward across the Central Plains
Saturday night into Sunday, with the GFS appearing faster with the
timing and showing less amplitude. The ECMWF and Canadian offer a
more amplifying, slower shortwave which would potentially result
in chances of light rain/snow across the forecast area. The GFS
suggests a dry frontal passage. A blended approach was used which
carries small chances of light rain/snow across the forecast area
Sunday into Sunday evening, although confidence in any precipitation
timing/impacts is rather low at this time. Otherwise, a blend of
the medium range models suggests temperatures trending slowly
downward to below normal during the period. The ECMWF continues to
suggest a more direct polar air intrusion Tuesday-Wednesday with
some degree of continuity.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1121 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

Aviation concerns are expected to be nil through the next 24
hours.

Light snow and MVFR ceilings pushed south of the forecast area
several hours ago, leaving VFR ceilings area wide. Surface high
pressure will continue building-in from the northwest and will
encompass the entire Plains by Thu afternoon. This will keep VFR
conditions in place through this entire TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    14  29   9  33 /  10   0   0   0
Hutchinson      12  28   6  32 /  10   0   0   0
Newton          11  26   9  31 /  10   0   0   0
ElDorado        13  27   9  31 /  10   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   15  30   9  33 /  10   0   0   0
Russell          8  25   6  33 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend       8  27   7  33 /   0   0   0   0
Salina           9  26   6  31 /  10   0   0   0
McPherson       10  26   6  31 /  10   0   0   0
Coffeyville     16  31  11  33 /  50   0   0   0
Chanute         15  29  10  31 /  20   0   0   0
Iola            14  27  10  30 /  20   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    16  30   9  32 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...RBL



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