Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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864
FXUS63 KICT 280841
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
341 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Today-tonight:
Given track record of ARW the last couple days, opted to factor
it into forecast again today, with caveats. It appears to be
picking up on convection moving across Southwest KS at this time.
This should dissipate around daybreak near western edge of the
forecast area. Also think a storm or two is possible through
daybreak in Flint Hills towards KSLN. Otherwise, ARW suggest
little if any CINH by late afternoon across northeast half of
forecast area, but its QPF is a bit more generous. Given coverage
yesterday and even less focus today, am hard pressed to expect
more than a token storm or two initiated by orographic/mesoscale
features. CINH should end precipitation by sunset, but there is
better potential for storms to move into/develop over Central KS
later tonight.

Monday-Tuesday:
Upper trough weakens and remains hung up in the southwest us,
leaving modest zonal flow the central plains. Pesky isolated-
scattered afternoon-evening and around daybreak convection will
likely be the rule. Unfortunately initialization grids are quite
generous with QPF and resultantly pops for Monday-Tuesday. This
seems unlikely given no real shortwave or boundary to overrun and
only broad diffluent upper flow to support it. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

This period is really a continuation of the Monday-Tuesday
timeframe. A weak wave does move across nebraska and 700MB trough
may drop as far south as I-70 Wednesday. This could lead to
slightly better coverage on Wednesday, but otherwise not seeing
anything to justify more that isolated-scattered storms at most.
Unfortunately initialization grids were significantly biased high
based on convective QPF, and was unable to reach adequate
consensus to lower pops as much as we wanted. A blend of ensemble
based pops was considerably lower for most periods. The best
chances this period will likely come from high plains storms
rolling into the area in the zonal flow during the night.
Temperatures will remain a challenge with temperatures aloft/upper
ridge supporting near/above normal maxes, but clouds/convective
debris could result in significant errors on some days/locations.
-Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

VFR conditions during this forecast period. A scattered deck of
cumulus is expected across the southern sections of the forecast
area. I have omitted VCTS at this time due to the lack of any
forcing. The moisture is in place but with no support or
convergent winds...I will keep the mention out at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    89  69  86  69 /  10  10  20  20
Hutchinson      88  67  85  66 /  10  20  30  30
Newton          87  68  85  67 /  20  20  30  20
ElDorado        88  68  87  68 /  20  20  20  20
Winfield-KWLD   90  69  90  70 /  10  10  20  20
Russell         89  66  85  66 /  10  20  30  30
Great Bend      89  66  86  65 /  10  20  30  30
Salina          90  68  87  68 /  20  20  30  30
McPherson       88  67  86  67 /  20  20  30  30
Coffeyville     91  69  93  70 /  10  10  20  20
Chanute         88  69  90  69 /  20  20  20  20
Iola            88  69  89  69 /  20  20  20  20
Parsons-KPPF    89  69  91  69 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...CWH



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