Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 251144
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
644 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

Low level moisture remains shunted deep into the Gulf of Mexico
which suggests the quality of moisture advecting into the region
this evening and tonight will remain suspect at best. This adds
confidence that the elevated mixed layer will keep a solid cap on
deep moist convection across the majority of the forecast area this
evening and tonight and the only exception will be along the I-70
corridor where a few storms may emerge from the Central High Plains
this evening. If any updrafts can survive, they may pose a marginal
hail/wind threat.

Friday...a cold front is progged to reside from extreme Southeast KS
into Central OK early in the day sinking south away from the area by
afternoon. The airmass in the vicinity of the front is expected to
remain capped. Another shortwave trough will approach late in the
day with scattered severe storms likely developing across the
Central High Plains. An overnight MCS may propagate eastward toward
the area but many of the impacts may remain north and west of our
forecast area. The NAM & GFS would support other elevated storms
developing along a warm front as it mixes north late Friday
night/early Sat across mainly Southeast KS. Confidence in this
scenario remains low as a strong capping inversion is progged to
remain in place. If a storm manages to develop late Fri
night/predawn hours on Sat, large hail would be a threat.

Saturday...The front is progged to remain draped across Southeast KS
on Sat, likely providing a focus for severe storms within a strongly
sheared and moderate to extremely buoyant airmass. Confidence in
where the boundary will setup remains low, but there will likely be
a window for severe storms along and behind the front through the
evening hours before drier more subsident air arrives later Sat
night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

A stable post-frontal regime will develop across the area
on Sunday with seasonable highs in the upper 70s. Moderating
temperatures are anticipated on Mon with highs climbing into the
lower 80s for most locations. A shortwave trough is progged to
rotate around the mean mid/upper trough across the Great Lakes area
late Mon into Tue driving another front south across the area. This
front may provide a focus for a few storms on Tue-Wed as it hangs
across the High Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

An increasing south wind is expected across the area today,
especially over central Kansas by late morning through the
afternoon. A shortwave trof aloft will move from the Rockies
across the Plains late this afternoon thru early tonight. An
MCS is expected to develop over northeast Colorado late this
afternoon and track east across northern Kansas tonight. Some
of this convection looks to affect the I-70 corridor from KRSL to
KSLN. Otherwise, the combination of the weak disturbance aloft
and mesoscale outflow is expected to push a weak surface cold
front south across central and into southern Kansas late tonight.
Some lower MVFR cigs are expected to develop in the northeast
flow behind this boundary across central Kansas.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    81  62  84  64 /   0   0  10  10
Hutchinson      80  61  82  62 /   0  10  10  10
Newton          78  61  82  63 /   0  10  10  10
ElDorado        78  62  84  64 /   0  10  10  20
Winfield-KWLD   81  64  86  65 /   0   0  10  10
Russell         82  58  80  58 /   0  40  10  30
Great Bend      83  58  80  59 /   0  30  10  20
Salina          80  59  82  62 /   0  20   0  20
McPherson       79  60  82  61 /   0  20  10  20
Coffeyville     79  64  87  65 /   0   0  10  20
Chanute         78  62  85  65 /   0  10  20  10
Iola            78  62  84  64 /   0  10  20  10
Parsons-KPPF    78  63  86  66 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...KED


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