Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 301734
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1234 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

COMPACT AND VERY SLOW MOVING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
(MCS) CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS AT THIS TIME. LATEST
PROPAGATION SUGGESTS THIS MCS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE VERY SLOW
PROGRESS TO THE E-SE FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WANE...AND
VEER TO THE EAST...WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE MCS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH
THROUGH MID DAY. LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGE SEEMS TO SUPPORT THIS
WITH CLOUD TOPS WARMING CONSIDERABLY.

THE SLOW AND PLODDING MOVEMENT MAY LEAD TO FLOODING CONCERNS FOR
AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF KICT...BEFORE IT COMES TO AN END.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THIS MORNING MCS WILL IMPACT THE
REDEVELOPMENT CHANCES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KS.  THIS AREA WILL BE WORKED OVER PRETTY GOOD FROM
THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION...WITH LITTLE TIME FOR AFTERNOON RECOVERY.
SO MAY ADJUST POPS IN SOUTH CENTRAL KS DOWN SOME FOR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
SHOWERS HAVE FINALLY DEVELOPED AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA...BEFORE
WANING MID MORNING. INITIALLY WAS THINKING THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
TO BE DRY...BUT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS...AND LITTLE CINH
ACROSS SOUTHWEST SECTIONS WITH DECENT CAPE...SUSPECT MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PERIST UNTIL
SUNSET. TEMPERATURES TODAY A TOUGH CALL WITH A LOT DEPENDING ON
AMOUNT OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS AT MID TO EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH NO
CLEAR CUT SIGNALS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TOWARDS DAYBREAK
FRI...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT
VERY HIGH.

FRI-SAT:
DRY CONDITIONS TENTATIVELY EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH GIVEN AIRMASS...WOULD
NOT WANT TO ENTIRELY RULE OUT POSSIBILITY OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION. SOME HINTS THAT RIPPLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW COULD BRING
GRAZING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG NORTHEASTERN BORDER...BUT
CHANCES ARE MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FURTHER NORTHEAST. SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SEE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF
CRITICAL SMALLER SCALE FEATURES WHICH WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT
FORECAST. LATEST ECMWF IS MUCH STRONGER WITH WAVE AND RESULTANT
CONVECTION ON TUES...WHICH AT FACE VALUE BRINGS EXTENSIVE
PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL KS AND KEEPS HIGHS IN THE 70S. GFS
MAINTAINS A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST THERMAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE ICT-
TOP BORDER...BUT WITH A MUCH WEAKER WAVE...KEEPS FORECAST AREA
DRY AND STORMS FURTHER EAST. GFS MODEL TEMPERATURES WOULD YIELD HIGHS
IN UPPER 90S...WITH ITS THICKNESSES SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES AROUND
100 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS
CERTAINTLY PLAUSIBLE...BUT ODDS SEEM TO FAVOR THE WARMER/DRIER
SOLUTION AT THIS POINT UNTIL TIMING/LOCATION/CONFIDENCE COULD BE
BE HIGHER. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

CURRENT SMALL BUT COMPACT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX (MCS) OVER
THE FLINT HILLS WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TO THE E-SE FOR THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.  THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME VCTS FOR THE KCNU TAF SITE
FOR THE 19-22Z TIME FRAME.  COULD SEE SOME REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS TO
MVFR IN AND AROUND A FEW STRONGER STORMS...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE THIS
IN THE KCNU TAF JUST YET.

THE REST OF THE TAF SITES WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS AS THE CLOUD
SHIELD FROM THE DEPARTING MCS MOVES TO THE EAST.  THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF THE CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST OF THE KRSL/KHUT
AND KICT TAF SITES...BUT WILL NOT MENTION THIS IN THE TAFS JUST
YET...AS CONFIDENCE IN THIS ACTUALLY OCCURRING IS VERY LOW.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    87  69  92  69 /  90  20  10  10
HUTCHINSON      87  68  93  67 /  60  20  10  10
NEWTON          87  68  92  67 /  50  20  10  10
ELDORADO        87  67  92  67 /  70  20  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  70  91  68 /  90  20  10  10
RUSSELL         90  67  94  65 /  20  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      87  67  93  65 /  20  20  10  10
SALINA          90  68  95  66 /  20  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       88  67  94  67 /  30  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     87  68  91  68 /  50  10  10  10
CHANUTE         87  66  92  68 /  40  10  10  10
IOLA            87  66  91  68 /  30  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    87  67  91  68 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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