Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 282013
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
313 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...AND AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MID-AFTERNOON ANALYSIS INDICATES A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
KANSAS. THINKING THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ADVANCE
EAST INTO THE FLINT HILLS CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. FURTHER WEST...A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST TX...NORTHEAST THROUGH
WESTERN OK AND INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TO CENTRAL KS. GIVEN LARGE SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST...THINKING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY FORM IN
THE VICINITY OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE DENSE
CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS...THINKING MODERATE-
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL FORM OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WHERE SUN HAS BEEN MORE PREVALENT. COUPLED WITH WEAK/MODEST DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WEST OF I-135 THROUGH THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND
TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...SHIFTING EAST
INTO EASTERN/SOUTHEAST KS OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH STRONG/MARGINALLY
SEVERE THREAT WILL WANE BY LATER THIS EVENING.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL SHIFT INTO PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST KS
FOR FRIDAY...WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND NEARLY WASH
OUT OVER SOUTHEAST KS SATURDAY...AS SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CONSEQUENTLY...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KS SATURDAY...BUT
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SUNDAY LATE
AFTERNOON-EVENING...AS FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SURROUNDING THIS
PERIOD...FORECASTING STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG WITH 40-50 KTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE A GOOD BET OVER PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN HALF OF KS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STALLS THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN KS EARLY TO
MID WEEK...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR CONTINUED MODEST THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

NARROW CORRIDOR OF ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS MAY
IMPACT ICT AND POSSIBLY HUT INTO MID AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND SOME LIGHTNING. OTHER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL KS AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING...SLOW-MOVING UPPER
TROUGH TO THE WEST. AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS THIS ACTIVITY WORKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...AIDED BY
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. AGAIN...GUSTY
WINDS/DOWNPOURS/LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. CNU TERMINAL
MAY NOT SEE ANY STORM ACTIVITY UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  87  66  91 /  60  50  30  10
HUTCHINSON      67  88  63  92 /  60  40  20   0
NEWTON          68  86  64  91 /  60  50  30  10
ELDORADO        69  85  66  91 /  60  50  40  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  87  67  91 /  60  50  40  10
RUSSELL         65  87  62  90 /  60  30  10   0
GREAT BEND      65  87  63  91 /  60  30  10   0
SALINA          68  87  65  91 /  60  40  20  10
MCPHERSON       67  88  64  91 /  60  40  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     71  86  68  91 /  60  60  50  20
CHANUTE         70  85  67  90 /  60  60  50  20
IOLA            69  84  67  90 /  60  60  50  20
PARSONS-KPPF    70  85  67  90 /  60  60  50  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$




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