Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 220834
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
334 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
RIPPLE IN UPPER FLOW COMBINING WITH INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. WITH DEPARTING UPPER SUPPORT...PRECIPITATION IS A BIT
MORE TENUOUS THIS AFTERNOON. AREA WILL BE LEFT WITH NEARLY
SATURATED AIRMASS BELOW 700MB...BUT 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION IS
GOING TO ADVECTION AND LITTLE/WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THINKING
SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE/WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE THE
RULE THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE A BIT
TONIGHT AS UPPER SUPPORT INCREASES AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SUPPRESSED TODAY AND MODERATED TONIGHT DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/
PRECIPITATION. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED SO RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE EXCESSIVE OR LIKELY TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.

SAT-SUN:

SAT MORNING WILL LIKELY SEE A CONTINUATION OF PRECIPITATION FROM
SAT NIGHT...WITH SOME DRYING POSSIBLE MIDDAY. HOWEVER A BIGGER
PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA SAT NIGHT...WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY. GIVEN MOISTURE...AMOUNTS SUBSTANTIAL
RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED...WITH ANOTHER ROUND MOVING THROUGH ON
SUN. HEAVIEST RAIN APPEARS MORE LIKELY EAST OF I-35. THAT
SAID...CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD AREAS EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT IS LOW...SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES
WITH THIS PACKAGE. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LITTLE CHANGE IN LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH PERSISTENT TROUGHING IN
WESTERN US AND RIDGING IN THE EAST. THIS WILL LEAVE THE AREA
VULNERABLE TO RIPPLES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW EVERY 12-24HRS THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. WITH DECENT MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SOME MODEL
DISCREPANCIES...AM STUCK WITH AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN
OVER ENTIRE AREA THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT
CONTINUOUS OR EVEN PERSISTENT RAIN EVERY DAY...UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING OF WAVES WILL KEEP THREAT GOING. BETTER CHANCES AT THIS
POINT ARE MON NIGHT-TUE WITH BOTH ECMWF/GFS HINTING AT ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT IS
PROGGED TO LIFT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY. A LARGE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST
ARRIVING AFTER 09-10Z AND PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST 19-21Z.
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CIGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY
LOWER FRIDAY EVENING WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    58  55  64  63 /  70  80  70  80
HUTCHINSON      56  54  64  62 /  70  80  60  60
NEWTON          57  53  63  62 /  70  80  70  80
ELDORADO        58  54  64  63 /  70  80  70  80
WINFIELD-KWLD   58  55  68  63 /  70  70  70  80
RUSSELL         55  54  64  61 /  70  80  50  50
GREAT BEND      56  54  64  61 /  70  80  50  50
SALINA          56  54  65  62 /  70  70  50  60
MCPHERSON       56  54  63  62 /  70  80  60  60
COFFEYVILLE     62  56  74  65 /  60  70  70  90
CHANUTE         62  56  70  64 /  60  70  70  90
IOLA            63  56  68  64 /  60  70  70  90
PARSONS-KPPF    62  56  73  65 /  60  70  70  90

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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