000
FXUS63 KICT 160513
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1213 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

ANOTHER UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED & ONCE AGAIN IT WAS CONVECTIVE INDUCED.
NUMEROUS (+)TSRA COVERING MOST OF WRN KS ARE BEGINNING TO PROPAGATE SE
AS THEY ENCOUNTER BROAD DEEP MOISTURE CHANNEL EXTENDING NE ACROSS WRN
KS. EXPECTING THIS TREND TO CONTINUE HAVE REFINED TSRA TO CONFINE POPS
TO WRN CORRIDOR WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO 20-30% WITH POPS
REMOVED FROM AREAS E OF I-135.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 752 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

(+)TSRA CLUSTER OCCURRING OVER CNTRL KS CONTINUES TO MOVE E & SE 20MPH
TOWARD SC KS THIS EVENING. THIS CLUSTER HAS PRODUCED ~65MPH GUSTS &
1.00 INCH HAIL IN ELLSWORTH & BARTON COUNTIES ALTHOUGH CLUSTER APPEARS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AS LARGE AS GOLFBALLS. HAVE FINE-TUNED SHORT
TERM POPS & WX GRIDS TO OBVIOUSLY REFLECT DOPPLER TRENDS AS WELL AS TO
APPLY "SVR" DESCRIPTOR TO CNTRL KS -AFFECTED COUNTIES. SKY GRIDS WERE
ALSO MODIFIED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND
EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITHIN A WEAKLY CAPPED AND VERY MOIST PBL WITH MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF
3000 J/KG. HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE
INSTABILITY AXIS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

MAINTAINED LOW POPS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS PROGGED TO RETURN WEST WITH SFC PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/WEAK H10-H85 CONVERGENCE ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED DEEP MOIST CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING REMAINS LOW AS THE
WEAK LLJ FOCUS APPEARS TO REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN
ADDITION...FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD KEEP THE BULK
OF THE ACTIVITY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.

AFTER A LULL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SHOULD ALLOW FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A
FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS IMPACTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY MONDAY. DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...A POST-FRONTAL STABLE REGIME IS ANTICIPATED EARLY
IN THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

MAINTAINED LOW POPS CENTERED ON MID-WEEK AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA BEFORE THE MID/UPPER RIDGE RETURNS LATE IN THE
WEEK WITH RISING TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER RETURNING TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

IMMEDIATE CONCERN NOW IS ~1,000FT STRATUS THAT HAS BEEN SPREADING IN
N/NW MANNER TOWARD KSLN. RECENT TRENDS DICTATE PLACING KSLN IN AN IFR
CIG STATUS FROM 09Z-15Z. THIS MAY BE A BUT PESSIMISTIC BUT WITH LGT
MOIST SLY FLOW AM ERRING ON SIDE OF CAUTION. STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF
BY 15Z. FOCUS SHIFTS TOWARD (+)TSRA SUN AFTERNOON & ESPECIALLY SUN
EVENING. NEAR-TERM CONERNS REQUIRED GREATEST ATTENTION & AS SUCH WILL
ADDRESS CONVECTIVE ISSUES WITH LATER ISSUANCES (ESPECIALLY STARTING
WITH 18Z EDITION.)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    71  89  67  86 /  30  20  80  20
HUTCHINSON      69  90  67  86 /  40  40  80  10
NEWTON          70  89  67  85 /  40  20  80  10
ELDORADO        70  88  67  85 /  30  20  80  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   72  89  68  86 /  30  20  80  30
RUSSELL         68  90  65  86 /  30  40  80  10
GREAT BEND      68  90  65  85 /  40  40  80  10
SALINA          69  90  66  86 /  30  30  60  10
MCPHERSON       69  89  66  86 /  40  30  80  10
COFFEYVILLE     72  88  68  85 /  30  30  80  50
CHANUTE         70  88  67  84 /  30  30  70  50
IOLA            70  87  67  84 /  30  30  60  50
PARSONS-KPPF    71  88  68  84 /  30  30  70  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
KSZ071-072-094>096-098>100.

&&

$$

ES