Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 251758
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1258 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

Low level moisture remains shunted deep into the Gulf of Mexico
which suggests the quality of moisture advecting into the region
this evening and tonight will remain suspect at best. This adds
confidence that the elevated mixed layer will keep a solid cap on
deep moist convection across the majority of the forecast area this
evening and tonight and the only exception will be along the I-70
corridor where a few storms may emerge from the Central High Plains
this evening. If any updrafts can survive, they may pose a marginal
hail/wind threat.

Friday...a cold front is progged to reside from extreme Southeast KS
into Central OK early in the day sinking south away from the area by
afternoon. The airmass in the vicinity of the front is expected to
remain capped. Another shortwave trough will approach late in the
day with scattered severe storms likely developing across the
Central High Plains. An overnight MCS may propagate eastward toward
the area but many of the impacts may remain north and west of our
forecast area. The NAM & GFS would support other elevated storms
developing along a warm front as it mixes north late Friday
night/early Sat across mainly Southeast KS. Confidence in this
scenario remains low as a strong capping inversion is progged to
remain in place. If a storm manages to develop late Fri
night/predawn hours on Sat, large hail would be a threat.

Saturday...The front is progged to remain draped across Southeast KS
on Sat, likely providing a focus for severe storms within a strongly
sheared and moderate to extremely buoyant airmass. Confidence in
where the boundary will setup remains low, but there will likely be
a window for severe storms along and behind the front through the
evening hours before drier more subsident air arrives later Sat
night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

A stable post-frontal regime will develop across the area
on Sunday with seasonable highs in the upper 70s. Moderating
temperatures are anticipated on Mon with highs climbing into the
lower 80s for most locations. A shortwave trough is progged to
rotate around the mean mid/upper trough across the Great Lakes area
late Mon into Tue driving another front south across the area. This
front may provide a focus for a few storms on Tue-Wed as it hangs
across the High Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

VFR conditions forecast at all sites throughout the period with
some caveats. Mid level warm air advection has resulted in a band
of altocumulus and some virga which at 1700 UTC extends from near
KRSL-KICT. This will track east during the afternoon, but given
dry sub-cloud layer it will not be mentioned in the TAFs. Storms
originating over the high plains this afternoon are expected to
roll into KRSL/KGBD/KSLN after 0300 UTC. Not entirely clear how
strong these will be when they arrive. Amount of this convection
also goes to whether outflow/windshift will make it to
KHUT/KICT/KCNU. Finally, models also are trying to generate
extensive MVFR and possibly IFR ceilings tomorrow morning. This
is more likely north of boundary in the post storm upslope flow as
opposed to the warm sector. Models appear to be overly agressive
with low level moisture return.
-Howerton


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    81  62  84  64 /  10   0  10  10
Hutchinson      80  61  82  62 /  10  10  10  10
Newton          78  61  82  63 /  10  10  10  10
ElDorado        78  62  84  64 /  10  10  10  20
Winfield-KWLD   81  64  86  65 /   0   0  10  10
Russell         82  58  80  58 /  10  40  10  30
Great Bend      83  58  80  59 /  10  30  10  20
Salina          80  59  82  62 /  10  20   0  20
McPherson       79  60  82  61 /  10  20  10  20
Coffeyville     79  64  87  65 /   0  10  10  20
Chanute         78  62  85  65 /   0  10  20  10
Iola            78  62  84  64 /   0  10  20  10
Parsons-KPPF    78  63  86  66 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...PJH



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