Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 242347
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
647 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

The main portion of a strong upper low/trough over the Northern
Rockies will lift northeastward across the Northern/Central Plains
and Upper Mississippi Valley tonight through Sunday night, while the
southern portion of this trough breaks off and shifts southwestward
into northern Mexico and the Baja region. An attendant, Pacific
front stretching from the Texas Panhandle through central Kansas to
eastern Nebraska will remain quasi-stationary into this evening,
before a surge of stronger cold air advection arrives late tonight
from the northwest. This surge will push the front through
central/south-central Kansas late tonight, and southeast Kansas on
Sunday.

850-300 mb mean south-southwesterly flow will persist along/east of
the front, maintaining a corridor of anomalously high precipitable
water air. Forcing for ascent from the right-rear quadrant of an
upper jet streak, and low-level convergence near the front will be
focused in this high moisture corridor. This will support numerous
showers/thunderstorms in especially central/south-central Kansas
through about 06z tonight, with the higher rain probabilities
then shifting to the Flint Hills/Southeast KS late tonight into
midday Sunday. Will mention locally heavy rainfall given the deep
mean-layer flow parallel to the front, and anomalously high
moisture content. A widespread rain total ranging from 0.50 inch
to 2 inches is likely by midday Sunday. Localized amounts of 3
inches or greater are possible where echo training occurs, which
could lead to localized flooding.

Pockets of moderate instability may yield isolated strong to
marginally severe wind gusts through early this evening, however
the primary concern will be heavy rainfall/localized flooding.
Rain chances will diminish from northwest to southeast Sunday
into Sunday evening as the front progresses through the region,
with cooler and drier air following in its wake through Monday and
Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Mid-level ridging over the Central Plains Wednesday-Thursday is
progged to flatten late in the week, as an upstream upper trough
pushes into the Pacific Northwest. A weaker shortwave trough is
progged to eject out of the Rockies across the Central Plains late
in the week ahead of the upstream, main upper trough, with some
timing differences between the operational GFS and ECMWF. Southerly
return flow and moisture return looks meager, and only slight
chances for thunderstorms remain in the picture for late in the week.
Temperatures will be around seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Tough call at all sites throughout the night as initial band of
rain showers/thunderstorm moves across most sites early this
evening. Expect second band to develop in the vicinity of KRSL
around midnight and then sweep across the area. This will be in the
vicinity of the cold front and trailing/stronger shortwave. MVFR
ceilings appears probable in the vicinity of front and IFR is
possible. Will stick with MVFR ceilings for now. Much drier air on
gusty northwest winds should scour out clouds quickly. KCNU will
be slowest to clear with lower end VFR or MVFR ceilings likely for
most of the period. -Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    63  73  51  73 /  80  50  10   0
Hutchinson      61  73  48  72 /  70  30   0   0
Newton          62  73  50  71 /  90  40   0   0
ElDorado        64  72  51  72 /  90  60  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   65  73  52  72 /  90  60  10   0
Russell         55  73  44  72 /  20  10   0   0
Great Bend      57  73  45  72 /  30  10   0   0
Salina          60  74  47  72 /  60  20   0   0
McPherson       60  73  48  72 /  70  30   0   0
Coffeyville     68  74  54  72 /  80  80  20   0
Chanute         66  72  52  71 /  80  80  10   0
Iola            66  72  52  70 /  80  80  10   0
Parsons-KPPF    67  73  53  72 /  80  80  20   0

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...PJH


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