Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 280906
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
306 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 306 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

Water vapor imagery shows upper circulation spinning over eastern
SD with another strong impulse moving into the southern high
Plains. At the surface, cold front extends just west of the KS
Turnpike and is continuing to push east.

Mid level winds have backed slightly ahead of the wave over the
southern Plains which has increased theta-e advection just enough
to get storms to develop over se KS. This activity should linger a
couple more hours before sufficient moisture is pushed east.

Long wave trough will remain over the Plains through Wed. The
upper low currently situated over eastern SD is expected to
remain, as a series of impulses dive out of the northern
intermountain and across the southern Plains. Any precip chances
will be east and north of the forecast area, so outside of this
morning will run with a dry forecast through Wed. Today looks to
be the warmest of this forecast package as good downslope will
allow deep mixing with 850mb temps mixed down resulting in highs
in the low 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 306 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

The persistent upper trough will finally start to push east on Wed
night and by Thu morning will be over the Great Lakes region.
Temps behind this departing system will be near seasonal normals
with highs in the upper 40s to around 50. There is good agreement
between the ECMWF and GFS that shortwave energy will dive out of
the Pacific NW and settle over desert SW by Fri. Meanwhile, a
series of impulses will slide across the northern Plains. This
pattern will allow near or slightly below normal temps to persist
with the best precip chances staying south of the forecast area.

The 00z run of the ECMWF did go against its previous runs and also
against the GFS in lifting the trough out across the southern
Plains and into the Ozark region by Sun/Sun night. This solution
would bring chances for wintry precip to eastern KS. However, no
ensemble runs of the GFS offered this solution, nor did the
Canadian. So for now, will keep with the thinking that the upper
low will continue spinning near Baja through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 528 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

An approaching dryline will bring rapid clearing to much of
central and south central KS this evening while some MVFR cigs try
to hold on across southeast KS through much of the night. Strong
and gusty south to southwest winds will subside through the
evening hours.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    63  33  55  32 /   0   0   0  10
Hutchinson      62  31  53  31 /   0   0   0  10
Newton          62  32  53  30 /   0   0   0  10
ElDorado        63  33  55  31 /   0   0   0  10
Winfield-KWLD   64  33  57  31 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         61  29  49  28 /   0   0   0  10
Great Bend      61  29  50  29 /   0   0   0  10
Salina          61  33  53  31 /   0   0   0  10
McPherson       62  32  52  30 /   0   0   0  10
Coffeyville     64  36  59  34 /  10   0   0   0
Chanute         64  35  57  32 /  10   0   0   0
Iola            63  35  57  32 /  10   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    64  36  58  33 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...MWM



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