Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 041758
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1258 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THIS AFTERNOON:
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS & ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT SPORADICALLY
APPEAR HAVE UPDATED WEATHER GRIDS TO "UNCERTAINTY" TO "SCATTERED"
& "ISOLATED" RESPECTIVELY. THE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS STILL
SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE CENTRAL KS ~7PM CDT WITH COVERAGE SLOWLY
INCREASING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEKEND FOCUS AROUND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY- WEDNESDAY EVENING...COOLER
TEMPERATURES TODAY...AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND.

TODAY-TONIGHT:

ANTICIPATING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO INCREASE FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING 850-700MB
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. CONSEQUENTLY...WENT LIKELY POPS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS BY MID-LATE MORNING.
THESE CHANCES SHOULD SHIFT PRIMARILY INTO EAST/SOUTHEAST KS FOR
THE AFTERNOON. ALL- IN-ALL...THIS ELEVATED ACTIVITY THIS MORNING-
AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN BELOW STRONG/SEVERE LEVELS DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY/POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS MAY PROMOTE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST KS WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. EXPECTED MOVEMENT
WOULD ALLOW THIS ACTIVITY TO POTENTIALLY CLIP CENTRAL KS THIS
EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF KS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...AS ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST PRODUCES STRONG 850-700MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION.
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES MAY PROMOTE A HANDFUL OF ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY EXIT EASTERN KS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO
SOUTHEAST KS BY PEAK HEATING. AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBO AS ADVERTISED BY THE
NAM/GFS MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED HIGHER-END SEVERE WEATHER.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD FINALLY EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

FRIDAY-MONDAY:

A PERSISTENT/BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TURNING ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK- WEEKEND. MID-UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S APPEAR REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME. THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
CONUS IN CONCERT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A SERIES OF QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONES ORIENTED WEST-EAST ACROSS THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM LATE WEEK INTO
AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF KS
AND NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON-OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

PRIMARY ATTENTION-GETTER IS THAT OF ISOLD TSRA SLOWLY INCRG LATE
THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVE. THRU ~05/03Z CIGS & VSBYS TO REMAIN VFR
IN NEARLY ALL AREAS WITH ANY MVFR VSBYS TO BE CONFINED TO ISOLD
TSRA. FROM 03-06Z COVERAGE SHOULD REALLY INCREASE AS WEAK SFC LOW
POSITIONED FROM WRN KS TO W TX CONTINUES TO ADVECT INCREASING MSTR
ACRS CNTRL & SC KS. AT THIS TIME GREATEST STG/SVR TSRA WOULD OCCUR
OVER WRN KS FOR MOST OF THE 04/18Z TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    83  69  91  74 /  60  70  20  10
HUTCHINSON      83  67  90  71 /  60  80  20  10
NEWTON          82  66  89  71 /  60  80  30  10
ELDORADO        83  67  90  74 /  60  70  40  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   83  70  93  73 /  60  70  20  10
RUSSELL         84  66  87  68 /  60  80  20  10
GREAT BEND      84  67  88  71 /  50  60  20  10
SALINA          84  67  86  72 /  60  90  30  10
MCPHERSON       82  68  88  71 /  60  90  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     87  69  90  73 /  60  70  60  20
CHANUTE         88  69  88  72 /  70  70  60  20
IOLA            88  68  87  72 /  70  70  60  30
PARSONS-KPPF    88  71  88  75 /  60  70  60  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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