Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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122
FXUS63 KICT 232008
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
308 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

A ridge is situated over the western CONUS while a trough
hangs over roughly the eastern half. Kansas remains in the ridge
territory which has prompted fabulous conditions for the day with
clear blue skies, temperatures in the 80s and light winds by Kansas
standards.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Tonight and tomorrow are going to have wonderful conditions. One may
want to consider grilling in the great outdoors both evenings. A
trough is traveling down the coast of British Columbia and soon
heading east to the Rockies. There will be troffing along the lee of
the Rockies prompting potential thunderstorm development in the
northern portions of the High Plains. Current model indications are
no longer bringing this activity into central Kansas. Thus
precipitation chances have been removed for Thursday into Friday.

One of the most intriguing parts of this forecast is most definitely
the tropical activity. Tropical Depression Harvey is currently
positioned in the Bay of Campeche or just west of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Its forecast onshore arrival is on Friday between South
Padre Island to near Matagorda or roughly two hours southwest of
Galveston. The ECMWF does like a more southerly solution while the
GFS pushes it further north. Harvey is anticipated to reach
tropical storm status soon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

This forecast should promote participation in several outdoor
activities of your choosing as arguably temperatures in the 80s to
end August could almost be considered celebratory. In tropical news,
models are keeping Harvey over southern Texas through the weekend
into next week before finally lifting out the middle of next week.
As mentioned in the previous discussion, this system will quickly cut
off moisture moving up this way from the Gulf. However, there is
a trough crossing the Northern Plains which will bring really the
only shot of precipitation in the forecast on late Saturday night
and potentially into Sunday evening. Percentages are not promising
unfortunately, and given the current forecast trends, minor
adjustments were made to precipitation chances for the respective
period. Adjustments in Harvey`s currently predicted slow exit
could occur which may possibly transition at least the eastern
half of the Sunflower State out of the dry slot for the latter
part of the forecast, but one should not get their hopes up for
such potential.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

Ketcham


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    60  85  65  84 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      58  85  64  84 /   0   0   0  10
Newton          57  83  63  82 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        58  84  62  83 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   59  85  64  84 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         59  88  65  86 /   0   0  10  10
Great Bend      59  87  65  85 /   0   0  10  10
Salina          57  87  65  86 /   0   0   0  10
McPherson       56  85  63  84 /   0   0   0  10
Coffeyville     59  84  61  85 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         58  83  61  83 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            58  82  61  82 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    58  83  62  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VJP
SHORT TERM...VJP
LONG TERM...VJP
AVIATION...Ketcham



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