Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 272333
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
633 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...CURRENTLY HAVE A SHARP TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN QUEBEC INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ANOTHER IMPULSE IS
DIVING QUICKLY SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO
CENTRAL TX WITH SOME WEAK LEE TROUGHING OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA/EASTERN CO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE SHORTWAVE OVER MANITOBA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE QUICKLY
TRACKING SOUTHEAST AND WILL SLIDE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES TO
MAINLY EASTERN KS INTO THE OZARKS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH LEE TROUGHING CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPS SAT WITH
PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING AND INTO THE UPPER/MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUN AFTERNOON. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE MAIN AFFECT THE SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE WILL BE TO LOWER
HIGH TEMPS FOR SUN TO THE 60S TO AROUND 70. HOWEVER...THESE
READINGS ARE STILL ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WHICH ARE IN THE LOWER 60S. ANOTHER WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE
FOR MON AS WE GET BACK INTO NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS TX
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR TUE INTO TUE NIGHT
WITH ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM STAYING SOUTH. THERE
IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR WED WITH THIS FEATURE PUSHING
THROUGH A COLD FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTH. THERE WILL BE SOME
RAIN CHANCES AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED EVENING BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE AREAL EXTENT. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...THE
GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN COLD AIR WED NIGHT
WITH THE ECMWF NOT PUSHING COLD AIR SOUTH UNTIL THU NIGHT.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL VERIFIES...IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE ARE IN
FOR COME COOLER TEMPS LATE IN THE WEEK.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FLOAT OVERHEAD TONIGHT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MEANWHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BACK
AROUND TO AN EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION FOR SATURDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

JAKUB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE FOR
SAT WITH DANGEROUS BURNING CONDITIONS SETTING UP FOR SUN.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT INTO SAT
WHICH WILL FLIP WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST
BY SAT AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SAT AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 10-15 MPH RANGE WITH AFTERNOON RH`S IN THE 30-45% RANGE WITH
THE LOWER VALUES OVER CENTRAL KS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FLIP
AROUND TO THE NORTH BY EARLY SUN AFTERNOON AND BE QUITE GUSTY. WE
ARE LOOKING FOR SPEEDS IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
30...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-135. THIS WILL
RESULT IN VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    38  72  47  71 /  10   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      37  74  46  70 /  10   0   0  10
NEWTON          37  70  46  70 /  10   0   0  10
ELDORADO        38  70  46  70 /  10   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   38  71  47  71 /  10   0   0  10
RUSSELL         37  74  46  69 /  10   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      40  75  47  70 /  10   0  10  10
SALINA          35  69  46  69 /  10   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       36  71  46  69 /  10   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     36  66  44  68 /  20  10   0  20
CHANUTE         36  62  43  68 /  20  10   0  20
IOLA            35  60  42  68 /  20  10   0  20
PARSONS-KPPF    36  64  43  68 /  20  10   0  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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