Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 192028
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
328 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

THERE IS A SURFACE LOW POSITIONED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THAT SHOULD
MEANDER EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE MAIN FRONT AND FEATURES
REMAIN OVER THE U.S. AND CANADIAN BORDER TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS. A
TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST WHILE A
RIDGE IS GOING TO MOVE INTO ITS PLACE WHICH WILL BE THE MOST
PROMINENT FEATURE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS COULD HELP INITIATE FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS WHICH IS
INDICATED IN THE GFS AND NAM MODELS. THERE IS A SLIGHT HINT IN
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE GFS. SINCE THERE WAS FOG
PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS LAST NIGHT...DECIDED TO ADD
PATCHY FOG FOR THE ~6-12Z TIME FRAME. DEVELOPMENT IS NOT CERTAIN BUT
POSSIBLE WITH THE POSITION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS UNSEASONABLE
PATTERN AND COOLER AIR. WARMER AIR WITH THE HOLD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ARE GOING TO ASSIST IN TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO AT AND ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES IN THE 90S. THE START OF THE WORK WEEK FOR
CENTRAL KANSAS WILL BE AT THE CENTURY MARK. HEAT INDICES ON MONDAY
WILL BE ABOUT 105 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH MAY NEED
A HEAT ADVISORY AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE QUESTION
OF DEWPOINTS AND GIVEN TIME FRAME HAS PREVENTED ISSUANCE OF ANY
HEADLINES...BUT EXPECT SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS TO BETTER ADDRESS THIS
MATTER.

VJP

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

A WEAK INFLUENCE AT 700MB WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY TO EARLY
TUESDAY WHICH COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SIGNAL IS DECREASING WITH EACH MODEL RUN WHICH IS
DIMINISHING THE CHANCES FOR POPS IN THE FORECAST. ANOTHER AND BETTER
CHANCE WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING. SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO THE POPS GIVEN RECENT MODEL TRENDS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
AFTER THIS WEAK SIGNAL WITH POTENTIAL PATTERN SHIFT AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST AS A WAVE DIVES DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IN
CANADA TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE THE MAIN WAVE STAYS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...THE SOUTHEAST PUSH TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES COULD IMPACT
THE FLOW ACROSS KANSAS FOR NEXT WEEKEND. SINCE THIS IS AT THE VERY
END OF THE FORECAST...THERE IS TIME FOR CHANGES TO BE MADE IN THE
POSITION AND INFLUENCE THAT THIS WAVE MAY HAVE TO THE AREA.

VJP

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

STRATUS GRADUALLY DISSIPATING DUE TO DIURNAL MIXING...WITH MOST
CONCENTRATED AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AFFECTING KICT AND KCNU.  FORECAST MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPROVING TRENDS...AND EXPECT SCATTERED CUMULUS
3-5K AGL BY 20-21 UTC.

GFS/NAM BOTH INDICATING THAT STRATUS/FOG COULD REDEVELOP
30/09-11UTC ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ONLY MODEST CONFIDENCE OF
RECURRENCE GIVEN MODELS MAY BE BIASED TOWARD THIS MORNINGS
CONDITIONS/INITIALIZATION. FOR THE TIME BEING...INTRODUCED A
SCATTERED CONDITIONS AT 1-2K.

SF


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    67  91  72  95 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      67  93  74  97 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          67  92  73  96 /  10  10   0  10
ELDORADO        66  91  72  95 /  10  10   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  90  71  94 /  10  10   0  10
RUSSELL         69  97  74  99 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      69  95  74  98 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          68  95  74  99 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       67  94  73  97 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     65  88  69  92 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         65  88  70  93 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            65  88  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    65  88  69  92 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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