Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 270759
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
259 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A COLD FRONT WAS BISECTING THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT WITH
ISOLATED POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHAT LITTLE SUPPORT
THERE IS FOR RENEWED DEVELOPMENT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO MAY LINGER THROUGH 15-16Z BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE
AREA AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SEASONABLE AIR TO THE AREA TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIODS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE 80S MON-TUE. MAINTAINED LOW POPS ALONG
THE WESTERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME
IS PROGGED WITHIN A WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS MAY DRIFT EASTWARD IMPACTING THE
AREA LATE TUE WHILE BETTER CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT BRINGING A SUBTLE WAVE
EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WED-WED NIGHT AND
MAINTAINED MID POPS WEIGHTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES. DUE TO
LIMITED INSOLATION/PRECIPITATION...HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT
OF THE 70S. THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
DEPICTING A LARGE TROUGH MEANDERING/RETROGRADING ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA THU-SAT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR AND CONTINUED CHANCES
FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

CONFIDENCE IN OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS IS WANING...AND HAVE
DECREASED CHANCES AND REMOVED VCTS FROM THE TAF FORECAST. LATEST
RUC SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON WHAT IS CURRENTLY HAPPENING AND
CONVECTION WANES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE COOL FRONT HAS
SLOWED AND HAVE REFLECTED THAT IN THE TAFS AS WELL. BY MORNING
EXPECT WINDS TO BE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WITH MID-UPPER CLOUDS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

BILLINGS WRIGHT


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    92  65  87  65 /  20   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      91  64  86  64 /  20   0   0  10
NEWTON          92  64  85  64 /  10   0   0  10
ELDORADO        92  64  86  62 /  20   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   92  66  87  65 /  20   0   0   0
RUSSELL         87  63  86  63 /  10   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      88  63  86  63 /  20   0   0  10
SALINA          90  62  87  62 /  10   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       91  64  86  64 /  10   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     96  64  88  62 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         94  63  86  61 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            93  62  85  60 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    95  64  87  61 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




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