Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 231116
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
616 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very strong south winds with gusts of 50-60 mph tomorrow.

- Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms tonight
  through early Monday, with a brief transition to snow possible
  over parts of central Kansas early Monday.

- Some storms tomorrow could be strong or severe with damaging
  winds and quarter sized hail.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

The western trough of interest will continue to amplify and broaden
across the western CONUS today. An anomalously strong (160+kt)
west-east jet streak will sit in the base of the trough, with
the left exit region overspreading the area late evening. The
250mb jet dynamics will couple with a stout 60kt 850mb jet to
enhance ascent and warm moist advection across the area tonight.
Thus increased chances (50-75% chance central, 20-40% south
central) of showers and storms are expected overnight. Chances
for showers and storms will continue to increase, to 60-80% as
we move through tomorrow. A lead wave through the broad based
trough will eject out over the Central Plains tomorrow afternoon
and evening. Strong to severe storms are on the table with
steep lapse rates and the high shear/low CAPE combo potentially
supporting large hail and 50-60mph wind gusts. Given significant
ascent tomorrow, would expect any organized storm to grow
upscale. Even a shower may be able to transport higher wind
gusts to the sfc tomorrow as stout low level winds of 50-60kts
reside in the 900-800mb layer.

Lee troughing will begin to ramp up across western KS today with a
sfc low forming in northeast CO by tonight. The sfc pressure
gradient will only tighten across the region as the sfc low
strengths tomorrow. The sfc low is progged to become anomalously
strong, some 3-4 standard deviations away from normal and nearly a
record according to NAEFS mean SLP climatology. The ECMWF Extreme
Forecast Index continues to highlight a shift of tails over the
region for wind gusts, again highlighting the potential
rarity/impacts of the wind event. There is growing confidence
that strong to damaging wind gusts of 50-60+ mph will occur
tomorrow. A high wind watch remains in effect across portions of
central and south central KS. A wind advisory has been posted
for all remaining counties in the CWA who were not under the
high wind watch.

The sfc low and lead wave eject northeast of the area Monday with
the secondary wave right on its heels. This will drive the cold
front across the CWA and keep the window open for light snow
and flurries across portions of central KS throughout the day.
There is a low probability (25-35%) of light snow accumulations
generally 0.25 inch or less across Barton, Russell, and Lincoln
counties. Best chance of meaningful impacts remain off the
northwest of the CWA. Temperatures early Tuesday morning will
fall into the teens and 20s. Early morning wind chills will
range from near zero and single digits across central KS, and
the low to mid teens across much of south central and southeast
KS.

The region will remain under broad troughing through the first half
of next week. Expect temperatures below seasonable normal with quiet
dry conditions. Brief ridging will warm temperatures back above
normal Thursday, nearly 70 degrees area wide. By Friday, yet another
amplified and broad based western trough will set the stage for lee
troughing and strong south winds across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 616 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

MVFR stratus cigs will linger through at least mid-morning with
modest confidence they will begin to scour enough to become
scattered by midday. Easterly component winds will gradually
veer more from the southeast and increase by this afternoon and
evening. Strong lee-side pressure falls will result in stronger
south to southeast winds later this evening with low level wind
shear conditions developing through early tonight. Elevated low
level moisture advection late tonight on the strong nocturnal
jet is expected to result in scattered showers and perhaps
isolated thunderstorms toward 12z Sunday morning.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Very strong and gusty south winds of 50-60 mph are expected
tomorrow. Very high fire danger is forecast, however relative
humidity of 50-60% and multiple rounds of shower and storms will
limit the threat.

Very high fire danger is possible Thursday along and west of the
Flint Hills, as relative humidity drops to 25-35% with above
normal temps and breezy south winds.

Very high fire danger is possible across the area Friday as
relative humidity drops to 20-30% with above normal temps and
strong southwest winds.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
KSZ032-033-047>051-067-082-091.
Wind Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 10 AM CDT Monday for KSZ052-
053-068>072-083-092>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KMB
AVIATION...KED
FIRE WEATHER...


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