Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 122041
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
241 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 239 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

A more prolonged period with drizzle and fog are expected to
materialize on Monday and Monday night while lingering through
Tuesday into Wednesday morning across portions of the area as
rich low level moisture advects north across the area. Another
cold front arriving across the area late Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning should force the deeper moisture south and east
of the area.

A storm or two may develop ahead of the front on Tuesday night/early
Wed but higher probabilities will likely remain north and east of
the area. A Pacific airmass in the wake of the front will keep highs
around 60 on Wed.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 239 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

Another round of low clouds, drizzle and perhaps some fog may
arrive in the Thu-Fri timeframe as low level moisture returns
north ahead of a vigorous shortwave trough progged to emerge from
the Rockies on Fri. We may see a few storms over far eastern
Kansas, but limited instability will likely preclude more
widespread strong or severe activity. Dry weather conditions and
seasonable temperatures are anticipated over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

Conditions are or will become VFR at all sites this afternoon.
Surface ridge axis moves across area tonight. Main concern is that
the lack of a good intrusion of dry air early in the forecast,
will allow low level moisture to slosh back north/west later
tonight after some decent radiational cooling. Boundary layer
forecasts hint that MVFR-IFR stratus would be main threat, but
synoptic pattern would make fog the more likely scenario. Either
way MVFR conditions appear likely enough to forecast. Then to
compound the issue, influx of 850MB moisture will spread west to
east during the daylight hours, although this would be a VFR deck.
-howerton


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    40  52  50  64 /   0  20  30  20
Hutchinson      36  52  48  64 /   0  20  10  10
Newton          37  52  48  62 /   0  20  30  20
ElDorado        39  50  50  62 /   0  20  40  20
Winfield-KWLD   40  53  51  64 /   0  20  40  20
Russell         37  56  45  63 /   0  10   0  10
Great Bend      37  54  45  64 /   0  10   0  10
Salina          37  54  48  63 /   0  10  10  10
McPherson       36  52  48  63 /   0  10  10  10
Coffeyville     37  54  50  61 /   0  10  50  30
Chanute         36  53  49  59 /   0  10  40  20
Iola            36  53  48  59 /   0  10  30  20
Parsons-KPPF    38  54  50  60 /   0  10  40  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...ADK



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