Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 232327
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
627 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Very challenging forecast with regard to the closed low which
evolves across the central Plains during Friday. The NAM is a bit
further north than the GFS/ECMWF, taking the low across far
southern Kansas, instead of northern Oklahoma. In consideration,
a compromise/conceptual approach will be taken tonight through
Saturday. For this evening/tonight, some of the western Kansas
convection could impact portions of central Kansas where better
elevated moisture transport will develop toward 06z. Additional
elevated showers/thunder could develop from the Flint Hills into
southeast Kansas Friday morning, though the developmental
mid-level dry slot should limit or temporarily end precip chances
across central Kansas through midday. In the afternoon, expecting
two areas of convection, along and ahead of the surface dry-
line/Pacific front across southeast Kansas, and then perhaps
near/just northeast of the upper low over south central Kansas.
Strong deep layer shear and modest instability will support a few
severe storms across southeast Kansas Friday afternoon. Some
indications of decent low level cape just ahead of the surface
front in southeast Kansas and potential for backed surface flow
suggest a brief tornado threat could also exist Friday afternoon.
Expect to see some wrap around precip/showers through Friday
night before ending from west to east across the area early on
Saturday. The next upper trof will move east across the Plains
Sunday into early Monday, providing another chance for much needed
rainfall.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Another upper trof will dig south across California early next
week and into a closed low across the southwest CONUS. This could
provide the central Plains with precip chances again by mid-week,
though details on timing and chances for meaningful QPF are
subject it subsequent track, with only low to modest confidence at
this point.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

South winds will remain strong and gusty through the night across
the region as surface pressure gradient remains tightened due to
approaching upper level wave. Strong south winds will continue on
Friday with thunderstorms possible over southeast Kansas around
mid-day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Strong south winds will continue to fuel very high to extreme
grassland fire danger through the evening. A period of extreme
grassland fire danger looks to exist behind the dry-line front
across the southern Flint Hills on Friday afternoon. So a fire
weather watch will be issued.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    59  75  47  63 /  10  30  40  10
Hutchinson      58  74  44  62 /  20  50  30   0
Newton          59  73  44  60 /  20  30  40  10
ElDorado        60  74  46  62 /  20  30  40  20
Winfield-KWLD   60  75  47  64 /  20  30  40  10
Russell         53  69  40  61 /  40  50  20   0
Great Bend      53  68  40  62 /  30  50  20   0
Salina          59  75  44  60 /  20  40  40  10
McPherson       57  74  43  61 /  20  40  40  10
Coffeyville     61  74  50  64 /  10  50  60  40
Chanute         61  73  49  62 /  10  60  70  50
Iola            61  73  49  61 /  10  60  70  60
Parsons-KPPF    62  73  50  63 /  10  50  60  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 11 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-083.

Wind Advisory until 5 AM CDT Friday for KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096.

Fire Weather Watch Friday afternoon for KSZ069-070-092>094-098.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...CDJ
FIRE WEATHER...KED



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