Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 282150
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
350 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 342 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

A low pressure system remains over the central United
States which is bringing rain and snow to the Dakotas. The cold
front that came through early this morning has moved into the
Ozarks which is brought clouds and precipitation over those areas
for the first part of the day. It is quickly pushing its way east
into the Mississippi River Valley. This system is well represented
on the water vapor image as mentioned in the previous discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 342 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

The trough will keep its position over the Midwest for the first
part of the week before heading to the Great Lakes. A secondary wave
and respective front will move through on Tuesday which will bring
another reinforcing shot of cooler air which means a relative cool
down for the mid week and beyond with highs once again back to
around 50 degrees or what is typical for start of December.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 342 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

Challenge - Precipitation chances and type for the end of the week
into the weekend

Another trough will come down the Pacific coast on
Tuesday/Wednesday with the main system diving south to the Desert
Southwest and Baja at the mid and upper levels. It is definitely not
as prominent lower in the atmosphere. This system doesn`t get its
act together to travel into the Southern Plains and Ozarks until the
weekend. However, the ECMWF is the one that shows such a solution
while the GFS lags and is not as deep. The next wave is expected to
move through the Central Plains on Saturday, but the differences in
model solutions suggest that it could be the latter part of the
weekend or into the first part of next week.

Movement of the system on Friday into the weekend suggests that
there will be chances for precipitation through the weekend. While
it is still early, there is the possibility of a mixed precipitation
scenario given the dropping temperatures below freezing once the sun
goes down and just as the sun comes up essentially from 0-15z on
both Saturday and Sunday. Chances gradually move in Friday evening
and increase through the overnight. Daytime highs will rise above
freezing so any rain/snow mix or snow will transition back to liquid
with daytime heating. Drier air at the surface and in the lower
layers of the atmosphere in the soundings suggest that the
precipitation could be in the form of sprinkles or flurries. Model
differences in both movement of the system, temperature column,
available moisture, etc. challenge the ability to adequately assess
any precipitation type. Stay tuned for updates on this part of the
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1122 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Could see some
mid level clouds stream across South Central KS by Tue morning.

Ketcham


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    33  55  32  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      31  53  31  48 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          32  53  30  47 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        33  55  31  48 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   32  57  32  50 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         29  49  28  47 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      29  49  28  47 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          32  53  31  48 /   0   0  10   0
McPherson       32  52  30  47 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     36  59  34  50 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         35  57  32  48 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            35  57  32  47 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    36  58  32  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VJP
SHORT TERM...VJP
LONG TERM...VJP
AVIATION...BDK



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