Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 290506
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1206 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

AREAS OF SHOWERS & ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SPREADING NE FROM TX
& OK PANHANDLES ACROSS NW OK TO SW KS. AT 9 PM CDT THE NE LEADING
EDGE HAD REACHED PRATT...SW KINGMAN & THE BARBER/HARPER CO LINE.
THE MODEST CONVECTION IS BEING SUSTAINED BY INCREASING ISENTROPIC
ASCENT IN THE 300-315K LAYER BEING INDUCED BY A MID-UPPER DECK LOW
CENTERED OVER THE SE UT/NE AZ BORDER THAT IS DRIFTING S-L-O-W-L-Y
TOWARD THE 4 CORNERS. RAINFALLS IN AREAS W OF I-35/I-135 WILL NOT
EXCEED 0.10 INCH THRU MID-NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVERNIGHT. UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH SOUTHEASTERLY 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 300-305K LAYER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDER LATER TONIGHT (MAINLY OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH-
CENTRAL KANSAS). INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE MARGINAL WITH
LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE TAKING ON A NEGATIVE-TILT. ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY...TO THE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT WHICH MAY LIFT AS FAR
NORTH AS I-40 OR SLIGHT FURTHER NORTH IN OKLAHOMA. THE HIGH STORM
CHANCES WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED 850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE
SYSTEM LOOKS TO OCCLUDE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHTLY RICHER
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO FAR
SOUTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS. MUCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG ARE
PROGGED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS...USING A BLEND OF THE
GFS/NAM-WRF MODELS...WITH VERY HIGH CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR OF 45-70
KNOTS. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE OF 1 TO
2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...ALTHOUGH LEFT MOVING SUPERCELLS MOVING
NORTHWARD OUT OF OKLAHOMA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD PRODUCE
VERY LARGE HAIL >2 INCH DIAMETER VERY CLOSE TO THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER.

THE STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHEAR
EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW PROBABILITIES (20-30%) OF
SHOWERS...ISOLATED THUNDER FOR MAINLY WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
UNDERNEATH THE UPPER TROUGH/MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET. COOLER AIR
WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY.

EXPECTING 1 TO 2 INCH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS STORM
SYSTEM...WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER RAIN OCCURRING FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS IS SOME POSSIBILITY A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
ALTHOUGH OUR FORECAST AREA IS NOT OUTLOOKED FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY...IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN
AS IT EJECTS OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS
FEATURE COULD PRODUCE SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. COOLER
THAN SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK...ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

AREAS OF -RA WL CONT TO SPREAD NE ACRS PRIMARILY SC KS THE REST OF
THE NGT. IN MOST AREAS VSBYS WOULD REMAIN VFR...ALTHO 3-5SM VSBYS
WOULD BE PSBL WHERE MODERATE RA OCCURS. CIGS ACRS ALL AREAS WOULD
QUICKLY DROP INTO "LOW-END" MVFR COUNTRY W/ CNTRL & SC KS TERMINALS
LKLY TO DROP INTO THIS CATEGORY ~09Z. IFR CIGS ARE LKLY AT KGBD &
KRSL ~12Z. TS WOULD BE NO GREATER THAN ISOLD & AS SUCH TSRA HAS
BEEN LEFT OUT OF ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    53  67  53  71 /  50  80  80  10
HUTCHINSON      50  62  49  67 /  80  80  80  20
NEWTON          50  65  53  68 /  60  70  80  20
ELDORADO        52  67  54  70 /  30  70  80  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   54  70  54  73 /  40  80  80  10
RUSSELL         44  54  43  61 /  70  80  90  40
GREAT BEND      45  57  44  63 /  80  80  80  20
SALINA          46  60  50  66 /  80  70  80  40
MCPHERSON       49  62  50  66 /  80  70  80  20
COFFEYVILLE     53  71  59  75 /  30  70  80  20
CHANUTE         51  69  59  72 /  20  50  80  30
IOLA            50  68  59  72 /  20  50  80  30
PARSONS-KPPF    53  70  59  74 /  20  60  80  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...EPS
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...EPS



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